The napkin. Four rows. Decide forward.

Brochure rate to brochure return is the wrong comparison. Strip both for tax first. The gap between the stripped numbers decides the question.

Home loan rate today

The number that prints on every EMI advice

8.50pct

Section 24 status

Self occupied capped at 2 lakh. Let out or under construction full. New regime nil.

Cap / Full / Nil

Post tax loan cost

Full deduction shaves 255 bps. Cap or new regime keeps the full 8.5 pct.

5.95 to 8.50pct

Equity expected post tax

12 pct gross long run. 12.5 pct LTCG drag past 1.25 lakh per FY.

10.80pct

Gap above 4 points

Investmath wins

Case A. Let out or under construction. 10.8 minus 5.95 equals 485 bps. Wide enough to absorb a 2 to 3 pp certainty premium and still pay.

Gap below 4 points

Prepaycertainty wins

Case B. Self occupied past cap or new regime. 10.8 minus 8.5 equals 230 bps. Thinner than the risk premium an honest person should charge.

Illustrative numbers built on publicly disclosed bank floating rates and NIFTY 50 TRI long-run history. Past performance . backtest only . not a guarantee. Your numbers will differ. The framework will not.