Tuesday evening. Cousin's WhatsApp lands with a Kitco screenshot. Gold $4720. The question that follows is the one almost every retail buyer gets backwards.
"Should I buy gold now or wait for it to come back to $4500." The spot price is the loudest number on the screen and the smallest variable in the actual return. The duty hiked at midnight on 13 May redrew the domestic curve. The vehicle decides the next ten years of tax. The buy date decides one week. Most people argue about the wrong axis.
4720USD
Gold spot per ounce
Above 4700 for three weeks. Up roughly 38 pct year on year. The loudest number on the screen and the one you cannot do anything about.
15pct
Indian import duty since 13 May
10 pct basic customs plus 5 pct agriculture infra. Effective midnight 13 May 2026. Sits on top of 3 pct GST on the metal itself. The number nobody texts about.
1080t
Central bank net buy 2025
Roughly one in eight ounces of global demand absorbed by central banks last year. The structural bid is policy, not a Diwali festival.
The spot price is the question retail asks. The duty, the vehicle, the holding period and the allocation are the four questions retail almost never asks. Same metal, three doors, three different tax cheques at the end. Card two prices the doors. Card three lands the three rules and a closer the brochure will not run.