Friend spent his whole Sunday comparing two funds. Asked which one to pick. Wrong question.
The split decides more than the pick.
90 pct
Over time
of how bumpy your ride is, set by the mix
40 pct
Across funds
of why your outcome differs from the next person's
100 pct
On average
of the long-run level, once picking nets to zero
How much equity, how much debt, how much gold. That one choice carries more of the outcome than which fund or stock sits inside each sleeve. The studies have said so since 1986.