Earnings is an estimate. Free cash flow is a bank balance. EPS can grow on what management chose to recognise. Cash only grows on what was collected, after the business reinvested. Believe the one that already cleared.

One quarter of divergence is timing. Three in a row is a trend. A single soft quarter can be a delayed payment or a one-off build. When EPS keeps climbing and cash keeps lagging across three reporting periods, recognition is running ahead of collection.

Read the conversion ratio as a slope, not a level. Free cash flow over net profit, tracked period to period. A ratio falling while EPS rises is the early signal of revenue quality drifting, long before it shows up in the headline.