Education . Portfolio Theory . 2 of 3 RupeeCase
Two clocks on the same
holding period.
Stretch the horizon and the return per year huddles toward its average. Stretch it further and the rupee outcome spreads wider than where it began. Same equity, same Rs 10 lakh.
On Rs 10 lakh 1 year 20 years
Width of the yearly return band, pp409
Ending amount, unlucky run9.2L31L
Ending amount, lucky run13.2L156L
The yearly rate gets four times more predictable, the band shrinks from 40 points wide to 9. The rupees do the reverse, the gap between an unlucky and a lucky run widens from about Rs 4L to roughly Rs 125L on the same Rs 10 lakh. Median landing near Rs 70L, about 7 times the start.