Top of the table today.
A coin flip to stay there.
Take every fund in the top quarter of its category. Check where they sit a few years later. The badge does not carry forward.
|
Odds |
| Funds you started with, top quartile | 250 of 1000 |
| If staying on top were pure luck | 1 in 4 |
| Funds still top quartile years later | about 1 in 4 |
| Edge the past rating gave you | roughly zero |
Persistence studies keep landing in the same place. Of the funds sitting in the top quarter, only about a quarter are still there a few years on. That is exactly what sorting on a coin flip would hand you. Two funds wearing the same five stars today can run 4 points a year apart from here. The badge tied them on yesterday. It said nothing about tomorrow.