The risk you could take is not the risk you can still afford.
01
A risk profile has an expiry date.
The equity you could ride fifteen years out is not the equity you can afford one year out. Re-lower it as the goal gets closer.
02
Near the finish, the order of returns beats the average.
A crash in the first two years and a crash in the last two are not the same event. One you buy through. The other you cash out into.
03
Glide down on a schedule, not on a hunch.
You give up a little upside if the crash never comes. That is the premium for not letting one bad year decide whether the goal gets paid.
Far from the goal, a fall is a discount. One year out, it is the thing that ends the plan. What changed was not the market. It was how much time you had left to be wrong.
Set the dial for where you actually are. Take the risk profile.