# One Country Bet

_Systematic Investing . 2026-07-18 . By Tanmay Kurtkoti. Educational, illustrative, not advice._

In early 1989, Japan was 45 percent of the world's stock market. Bigger than America, which sat at 33. If you were an investor in Tokyo that year, you owned the biggest, deepest, most obviously permanent market on the planet, and not one person would have described your portfolio as a concentrated bet.

The Nikkei closed at 38,915.87 on the last trading day of 1989. It did not close above that level again until February 2024.

Thirty four years to get back to where you started. By 2017, Japan's share of global market value was 8.4 percent. Nobody rang a bell on the way down.

Now the uncomfortable turn.

India is 2.9 percent of the world's listed equity right now. Roughly 4.77 trillion dollars out of 164 trillion. Fifth largest market on earth, and it was 4.2 percent as recently as December 2024. Meanwhile most Indian portfolios, including plenty of very carefully constructed ones, are close to 100 percent India.

That is about 34 times the world's weight, in one country.

Here's the part nobody tells you. Run Rs 10,00,000 for 34 years against a home market that goes nowhere and you end with 10,04,698. Move just 30 percent of it into global equity at its long run rate and the same pot ends at 61,15,279. The 3 lakh you sent abroad ends up worth more than the 7 lakh you kept. Illustrative arithmetic, not a forecast, but that is the shape of the thing.

Honest version: I'm not saying sell India. You earn and spend in rupees. India has compounded faster than the world for years. The route out is genuinely narrow right now, with the industry wide overseas cap near its ceiling and some schemes closed to fresh money.

All true. None of it turns 34 times into a decision you made.

A dozen funds, four apps, three cap segments, one country. That is not a diversified portfolio. That is a lot of diversification inside a single bet