Lump Sum vs Drip . Card 1

RupeeCase

Education . Windfall Timing . 1 of 3

The windfall question most people get backwards

You waited to be safe.
You were betting against the market.

A friend had Rs 12 lakh from a plot sale sitting in savings. His plan was to drip it in over a year so he didn't buy right before a crash. Feeding a lump you already hold in slowly isn't caution. It's a bet that cash beats the market for a year.

All at once won

67%

Of the time, investing a windfall all at once beat dripping it in. Seven markets, nearly a century.

Stretch to 3 years

90%

Drag the drip out over 36 months and all at once won about nine times in ten. Longer is worse.

Why the coin is loaded

76%

Share of months stocks beat cash since 1976. Waiting in cash means missing exactly that.

The sentence the careful plan forgets

Staggering a lump you already hold isn't caution. It's a bet on cash, and cash usually loses.