RupeeCase
Education . Windfall Timing . 2 of 3
What stretching the entry actually does
The longer you drip it in, the worse your odds
Same money, same destination. The only variable is how long it waits in cash. Stretch the drip from three months to six and putting it all in at once wins even more often, because you left more money sitting on the bench.
The longer you stretch the drip, the more often putting it in at once wins SHARE OF ONE YEAR WINDOWS THE LUMP SUM WON . GLOBAL . PCT 3 month drip 67.7 4 month drip 69.7 5 month drip 71.7 6 month drip 72.6 0 20 40 60 80 Longer drip . more months in cash . the odds tilt further toward lump sum
Source . Vanguard research 2012 and 2023 . MSCI World 1976 to 2022
Longer felt safer. It just meant more months in cash, and worse odds. The safety you feel is the thing lowering your chances.