---
title: "Blog | Systematic Investing Notes by Tanmay Kurtkoti"
description: "197 short notes on returns, risk, factors, costs and behaviour, each built on a worked figure from Indian market data. By Tanmay Kurtkoti, builder of RupeeCase."
source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/blog/"
---

RupeeCase notes, by Tanmay Kurtkoti

# Systematic investing,
in plain numbers.

          197 short notes on returns, risk, factors, costs and behaviour, every one built on a worked figure from Indian market data. Free, no sign up.

* **197**notes
* **8**topics
* **6**reading paths

          [Start here](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)Search the notes

          01Not sure where to start?

## Start with one of these.

          [Start hereNew to systematic investing, or to RupeeCase. 10 notes.](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)[What a return number hidesAnyone comparing two funds or two strategies on a return figure. 8 notes.](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)[The cost stackAnyone holding a regular plan, a PMS pitch or an ETF for a SIP. 8 notes.](/blog/2026-05-02-morning-mf-cost-stack/)

        02Featured

## The latest note, and two worth starting with.

        [Latest . Returns and risk maths . 13 minSame returns, different retirementThe same ten annual returns leave a Rs 1 crore corpus drawing Rs 6 lakh a year at Rs 125.66 lakh or Rs 39.08 lakh depending only on their order.](/blog/2026-09-05-morning-same-returns-different-retirement/)[Editor pick . Returns and risk maths . 5 minRolling returns vs CAGRA point to point CAGR is a chosen story, and the Nifty 50 TRI's rolling five year windows since 2002 ranged from minus 1.2 to plus 22.4 percent a year.](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)[Editor pick . Returns and risk maths . 9 minThe volatility taxFive portfolios averaging 12 percent compound at 11.98 down to 4.00 percent depending only on volatility, so Rs 10 lakh over twenty years ends anywhere from Rs 96 lakh to Rs 22 lakh.](/blog/2026-07-31-evening-volatility-tax/)

        03Topics

## Eight topics, not months.

        [Returns and risk mathsCAGR, rolling windows, Sharpe, drawdown, volatility drag, sequence risk and real returns.20 notes](/blog/topic/returns-risk-maths/)[FactorsMomentum, value, quality, size and low volatility.22 notes](/blog/topic/factors/)[Portfolio constructionDiversification, correlation, allocation, rebalancing, position sizing and the risk profile that decides how much of the same portfolio you can hold.33 notes](/blog/topic/portfolio-construction/)[Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCaseWhat funds, PMS and rules based baskets really cost, what a factsheet hides, and how structure and tax change the answer.25 notes](/blog/topic/costs-mf-pms-rupeecase/)[BehaviourThe biases that cost investors money, and the market plumbing (settlement, circuit breakers, flows, stop orders) that catches them on the worst day.27 notes](/blog/topic/behaviour/)[Company numbersReading ROE, cash flow, leverage, goodwill, buybacks and splits past the headline, with the lines a press release leaves out.24 notes](/blog/topic/company-numbers/)[Personal finance and taxSIPs, loans, insurance, emergency funds, goals and the tax lines (exemptions, cliffs, lock ins) that decide what you keep.24 notes](/blog/topic/personal-finance-tax/)[Strategy notesDated notes on individual RupeeCase cards and the shelf.22 notes](/blog/topic/strategy-notes/)

        The indices the notes discuss

* [5Paisa Focused Alpha 5](/strategies/5paisa-focused-alpha-5)
* [Midcap Smallcap](/strategies/midcap-smallcap)
* [Allcap](/strategies/allcap)
* [Large Cap Multi Asset](/strategies/largecap-multi-asset)
* [Allcap Multi Asset](/strategies/allcap-multi-asset)
* [TotalMarket Hybrid](/strategies/totalmarket-hybrid)
* [Midcap](/strategies/midcap)
* [Smallcap](/strategies/smallcap)
* [Microcap](/strategies/microcap)
* [Large Mid Multi Asset](/strategies/largemid-multi-asset)
* [Large Midcap](/strategies/large-midcap)
* [Large Mid Hybrid](/strategies/large-mid-hybrid)
* [Focused Largecap 20](/strategies/focused-largecap-20)
* [Energy Basket](/strategies/energy-basket)
* [Healthcare Basket](/strategies/healthcare-basket)
* [Largecap Hybrid](/strategies/largecap-hybrid)
* [Nifty 50 Equal Weight](/strategies/nifty-50-equal-weight)
* [Dynamic Asset Allocator](/strategies/dynamic-asset-allocator)

[Compare all 18 in one table](/strategies/#sxTable)

        04Reading paths

## Six lines through the notes.

Each path is a line and each note a stop. Tap a line to ride it; every path takes under an hour.

1. 01Start here10 notes, 89 min

2. 02What a return number hides8 notes, 54 min

3. 03The cost stack8 notes, 63 min

4. 04Factor primer8 notes, 55 min

5. 05Before you pick a card8 notes, 49 min

6. 06Reading a company8 notes, 61 min

          Path 0110 stops

### Start here
New to systematic investing, or to RupeeCase. Ten notes that cover the ideas every other note assumes.

1. [1Rolling returns vs CAGR](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)
2. [2The volatility tax](/blog/2026-07-31-evening-volatility-tax/)
3. [3Drawdown: depth vs duration](/blog/2026-07-07-evening-depth-vs-duration/)
4. [4The mix beats the pick](/blog/2026-07-24-evening-mix-beats-the-pick/)
5. [5Twenty funds, one bet](/blog/2026-08-07-evening-twenty-funds-one-bet/)
6. [6The lower number is your profile](/blog/2026-06-04-evening-risk-capacity-vs-tolerance/)
7. [7Direct vs regular: the finder's fee you pay forever](/blog/2026-06-10-morning-direct-vs-regular-plan/)
8. [8A 1 percent fee does not cost you 1 percent](/blog/2026-08-26-evening-one-percent-is-not-one-percent/)
9. [9Ten days that mattered](/blog/2026-08-03-morning-ten-days-that-mattered/)
10. [10The default decides more than the advice does](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/)

[Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)
Path 028 stops

### What a return number hides
Anyone comparing two funds or two strategies on a return figure. Eight notes on windows, averages, benchmarks and the gap between a fund and its investors.

1. [1Rolling returns vs CAGR](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)
2. [2The three year number that changes every day](/blog/2026-07-29-morning-three-year-number/)
3. [3The since inception trap](/blog/2026-07-19-morning-since-inception-trap/)
4. [4The bigger number is the smaller return](/blog/2026-07-05-morning-total-return-vs-cagr/)
5. [5TRI vs price index: which Nifty](/blog/2026-06-11-morning-tri-vs-price-index/)
6. [6The average return is a lie](/blog/2026-08-21-evening-the-average-return-is-a-lie/)
7. [7Real vs nominal: the three numbers in a return](/blog/2026-07-01-evening-real-vs-nominal-return/)
8. [8The behaviour gap: fund return vs investor return](/blog/2026-07-07-morning-fund-vs-investor-return/)

[Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-11-morning-cagr-vs-rolling-returns/)
Path 038 stops

### The cost stack
Anyone holding a regular plan, a PMS pitch or an ETF for a SIP. Eight notes on fees, commissions, structure and the tax that rides on each.

1. [1The mutual fund cost stack](/blog/2026-05-02-morning-mf-cost-stack/)
2. [2The true cost stack of a regular plan](/blog/2026-05-09-evening-mf-true-cost-stack/)
3. [3Direct vs regular: the finder's fee you pay forever](/blog/2026-06-10-morning-direct-vs-regular-plan/)
4. [4ETF vs index fund: cheaper sticker, not the cheaper hold](/blog/2026-06-18-morning-etf-vs-index-fund/)
5. [5PMS 2 and 20: the rupee math](/blog/2026-05-03-morning-pms-2-and-20-math/)
6. [6The tax you pay for someone else's trades](/blog/2026-06-14-morning-pms-vs-mf-tax-drag/)
7. [7A 1 percent fee does not cost you 1 percent](/blog/2026-08-26-evening-one-percent-is-not-one-percent/)
8. [8The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every year](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/)

[Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-02-morning-mf-cost-stack/)
Path 048 stops

### Factor primer
Readers who want to know what momentum, value, quality, size and low volatility actually are before buying a factor fund or a RupeeCase card.

1. [1Momentum factor primer](/blog/2026-05-11-evening-momentum-primer/)
2. [2Which value? The rule is the product](/blog/2026-07-16-evening-which-value/)
3. [3Quality: the factor that pays in the bear market](/blog/2026-05-15-morning-quality-factor/)
4. [4Size matters, if you control your junk](/blog/2026-07-02-morning-size-vs-junk/)
5. [5The boring stock won](/blog/2026-07-24-morning-low-vol-anomaly/)
6. [6Multi factor stacking: the peak is at three](/blog/2026-05-23-morning-multi-factor-stacking/)
7. [7The edge decays when you read about it](/blog/2026-08-19-morning-the-edge-decays-when-you-read-about-it/)
8. [8Factor timing is a rear view mirror](/blog/2026-07-08-evening-factor-timing/)

[Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-11-evening-momentum-primer/)
Path 058 stops

### Before you pick a card
Anyone about to choose a RupeeCase strategy. Eight notes that move the sort from CAGR to drawdown, and from the brochure to your own nerve.

1. [1Risk profile fit: the drawdown you can actually sit through](/blog/2026-05-03-evening-risk-profile-fit/)
2. [2Capacity, tolerance, need: the three risks](/blog/2026-07-09-evening-three-risks/)
3. [3Emergency fund first, risk profile second](/blog/2026-06-29-evening-emergency-fund-risk-profile/)
4. [4Drawdown is the KPI nobody asks about](/blog/2026-05-05-evening-drawdown-real-kpi/)
5. [55 vs 20 vs 50 stocks: what concentration buys and takes back](/blog/2026-05-02-morning-concentration-vs-diversification/)
6. [6You sorted by return. Here is what you missed.](/blog/2026-08-03-evening-sort-by-return/)
7. [7The shallow fall compounds](/blog/2026-07-28-evening-shallow-fall-compounds/)
8. [8Max drawdown is a record, not a limit](/blog/2026-07-17-evening-worst-so-far/)

[Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-05-03-evening-risk-profile-fit/)
Path 068 stops

### Reading a company
Stock pickers and anyone reading a results filing. Eight notes that go from the ROE headline to the cash flow statement and the notes.

1. [1Three ways to make eighteen percent](/blog/2026-09-03-morning-three-ways-to-make-eighteen-percent/)
2. [2Profitable and broke](/blog/2026-08-12-evening-profitable-and-broke/)
3. [3EPS grew, cash did not](/blog/2026-06-09-morning-eps-vs-fcf/)
4. [4Five lines below the headline](/blog/2026-06-12-morning-earnings-quality-five-lines/)
5. [5Off balance sheet debt: the notes are the balance sheet](/blog/2026-06-05-morning-off-balance-sheet-debt/)
6. [6Interest coverage: the number under the profit](/blog/2026-07-12-evening-interest-coverage/)
7. [7Goodwill: the asset that exists because they overpaid](/blog/2026-07-16-morning-goodwill-overpaid/)
8. [8The buyback illusion](/blog/2026-07-26-morning-buyback-illusion/)

[Start at stop 1](/blog/2026-09-03-morning-three-ways-to-make-eighteen-percent/)

        05All 197 notes

## Find any note.

        All **197**Returns and risk maths **20**Factors **22**Portfolio construction **33**Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCase **25**Behaviour **27**Company numbers **24**Personal finance and tax **24**Strategy notes **22**

        Newest first, 24 of 197

1. [Same returns, different retirementThe same ten annual returns leave a Rs 1 crore corpus drawing Rs 6 lakh a year at Rs 125.66 lakh or Rs 39.08 lakh depending only on their order.Returns and risk maths . 5 Sep 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-09-05-morning-same-returns-different-retirement/)
2. [Three ways to make eighteen percentA brand, a retailer and a lender all show 18 percent ROE from 18x1x1, 3x3x2 and 20x0.09x10, and their returns on assets are 18, 9 and 1.8 percent.Company numbers . 3 Sep 2026 . 12 min](/blog/2026-09-03-morning-three-ways-to-make-eighteen-percent/)
3. [The index rewrites itselfThe Nifty 50 made 41 constituent changes from 2009 to 2022, 2.93 a year, with a twenty rank buffer between joining and leaving and a cap of five additions a year.Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCase . 2 Sep 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-09-02-morning-the-index-rewrites-itself/)
4. [Size decides more than selectionHolding research constant and moving the top three weights from 5 to 20 percent each quadruples a 40 percent shock's damage from 6 to 24 percent of the book.Portfolio construction . 1 Sep 2026 . 12 min](/blog/2026-09-01-evening-size-decides-more-than-selection/)
5. [A stop loss is not a floor. It is a request.A stop is a trigger plus whatever fill exists, and in a 20 percent gap a 5 percent stop left 75 percent of the damage uncontrolled while circuit rules queued the exit.Behaviour . 28 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-28-morning-the-stop-loss-that-did-not-stop/)
6. [A 1 percent fee does not cost you 1 percentOn Rs 10 lakh at 12 percent gross for 25 years a 1.00 percent fee costs 20.1 percent of the ending corpus, and more than half of that is charged in the last five years.Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCase . 26 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-26-evening-one-percent-is-not-one-percent/)
7. [The default decides more than the advice doesMissing three instalments a year on a Rs 10,000 SIP cuts a twenty year corpus by 23.9 percent, and a skip in month one costs 9.7 times a skip in month 229.Behaviour . 25 Aug 2026 . 12 min](/blog/2026-08-25-evening-the-default-decides/)
8. [What the lock in costs youAcross ELSS, NPS and PPF the return argument is worth about Rs 54 lakh over twenty years and the NPS annuity clause moves Rs 40 lakh, decided by a paragraph nobody read.Personal finance and tax . 24 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-24-morning-what-the-lock-in-costs-you/)
9. [The average return is a liePlus 30, minus 20, plus 25, minus 15 averages 5.00 percent and compounds at 2.53, and a 12 percent average at 45 percent volatility compounds at 3.93.Returns and risk maths . 21 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-21-evening-the-average-return-is-a-lie/)
10. [The edge decays when you read about itMcLean and Pontiff measured 26 percent decay out of sample and 58 percent after publication, which stretches a 0.60 Sharpe's proof time from 11 years to 59.Factors . 19 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-19-morning-the-edge-decays-when-you-read-about-it/)
11. [The Rs 1.25 lakh you throw away every yearRealising gains yearly in your own name beats deferring to exit up to about Rs 60 lakh of portfolio, because ten shots at the exemption are worth Rs 1,56,250 of tax.Costs: MF, PMS, RupeeCase . 19 Aug 2026 . 14 min](/blog/2026-08-19-evening-the-exemption-you-throw-away/)
12. [Rebalancing is not free. And it is not always money.Two 10 percent sleeves at 25 percent volatility earn a 1.88 point bonus at minus 0.20 correlation and 0.16 at plus 0.90, while a trending decade charges 1.39 points a year.Portfolio construction . 17 Aug 2026 . 11 min](/blog/2026-08-17-evening-what-rebalancing-actually-pays/)
13. [Selling the wrong halfTwenty equal positions with winners sold at plus 20 and losers held to minus 40 end down 10 percent; flip the exit rule and the same picks end up 10, and doing nothing ends flat.Behaviour . 14 Aug 2026 . 12 min](/blog/2026-08-14-morning-selling-the-wrong-half/)
14. [Profitable and brokeStretching receivable days from 45 to 95 on 40 percent growth turns a 140 profit into minus 101 of operating cash, and the banker read the third statement first.Company numbers . 12 Aug 2026 . 12 min](/blog/2026-08-12-evening-profitable-and-broke/)
15. [Prepay or invest: the schedule decidesA Rs 5 lakh prepayment in month 12 of a Rs 50 lakh loan kills Rs 21.04 lakh of interest, and investing it still wins by about Rs 6 lakh at a post tax 9.36 percent.Personal finance and tax . 10 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-10-morning-prepay-or-invest/)
16. [Twenty funds, one betAt the 0.85 correlation Indian diversified equity funds show against each other, twenty funds buy 1.17 effective bets against 1.14 for five.Portfolio construction . 7 Aug 2026 . 11 min](/blog/2026-08-07-evening-twenty-funds-one-bet/)
17. [Your portfolio is not down. You are looking too often.At 12 percent drift and 18 percent volatility a day's wobble is 24 times the signal, a normal year shows about 121 red days, and the crossover sits at 2.25 years.Behaviour . 6 Aug 2026 . 14 min](/blog/2026-08-06-morning-checking-too-often/)
18. [Momentum pays, then bitesMomentum's winner minus loser portfolio runs a 0.71 Sharpe since 1927 and lost about 91 percent in two months of 1932 while the market rose 82, because the crash is the short leg.Factors . 5 Aug 2026 . 13 min](/blog/2026-08-05-morning-momentum-pays-then-bites/)
19. [Ten days that matteredRs 10 lakh in the Nifty 50 TRI from July 1999 grew to Rs 2.84 crore, or Rs 96 lakh without the 15 best days, seven of which sat within two weeks of the ten worst.Behaviour . 3 Aug 2026 . 10 min](/blog/2026-08-03-morning-ten-days-that-mattered/)
20. [You sorted by return. Here is what you missed.Re sorting the shelf by Calmar moves Midcap Smallcap from rank two to eight and Large Mid Multi Asset from ten to four, because the recovery column is the one that matters.Strategy notes . 3 Aug 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-08-03-evening-sort-by-return/)
21. [The stock split that changed nothingA 1:1 split turned 1,000 shares at Rs 200 into 2,000 at Rs 100, left the P/E and the ownership fraction untouched, and the volume bump faded within 90 days.Company numbers . 31 Jul 2026 . 10 min](/blog/2026-07-31-morning-stock-split-illusion/)
22. [The volatility taxFive portfolios averaging 12 percent compound at 11.98 down to 4.00 percent depending only on volatility, so Rs 10 lakh over twenty years ends anywhere from Rs 96 lakh to Rs 22 lakh.Returns and risk maths . 31 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-31-evening-volatility-tax/)
23. [The flat SIP shrinksRs 10,000 a month buys about Rs 7,473 of 2021 purchasing power after five years at 6 percent inflation, and a 10 percent annual step up doubles the twenty year corpus.Personal finance and tax . 30 Jul 2026 . 8 min](/blog/2026-07-30-morning-flat-sip-shrinks/)
24. [Confirmation bias: research or hopeLord, Ross and Lepper's 1979 study showed mixed evidence hardens both sides, and cutting at minus 15 instead of holding through minus 40 ends Rs 3.51 lakh ahead on Rs 10 lakh.Behaviour . 30 Jul 2026 . 9 min](/blog/2026-07-30-evening-confirmation-bias/)

        Show more

        06Keep up

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          [RSS feedThe newest 50 notes, with their cards, in any reader.](/instiv2/blog/feed.xml)
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