--- title: "Is there a \"sure shot\" option strategy with 90% accuracy?" description: "No option strategy is certain. A high win rate is easy to produce by selling far out of the money options." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/learn/questions/sure-shot-option-strategy" --- NIFTY's largest one day fall from July 2025 to July 2026 came in a single session on 19 Mar 2026 Daily close of NIFTY 50, 2 Mar to 10 Apr 2026. The largest one day fall in the stretch from 1 Jul 2025 to 17 Jul 2026 is marked. Source: NSE end of day data, computed by RupeeCase. As of 10 Apr 2026. The phrase sells a win rate, and a win rate is easy to raise. Sell options far enough from the index and most expiries end with the premium kept. The chart shows the other side of that record: one session can carry the index a long way. The chart is the NIFTY close from 2 Mar to 10 Apr 2026. The largest one day fall in the school's series, which runs from 1 Jul 2025 to 17 Jul 2026, came on 19 Mar 2026. A seller of far out of the money options is paid in small amounts most sessions and carries the risk of a day like that. On such a day the loss can be larger than all the premium collected on the quiet sessions before it. Accuracy is not expectancy. Expectancy is the average result per trade after every loss and every cost. A strategy with 90% wins can still lose money, when one loss is bigger than all the wins together. A claim of accuracy with no loss figure leaves out the half of the trade that decides the result. SEBI's August 2026 study found that 87.7% of individual F&O traders made a net loss in FY26. The school publishes no win rate for any named strategy and sells none. What it teaches is how payoff, costs and expectancy fit together. **Before you trade.** Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss. SEBI's study "Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment (FY25 to FY26)" (August 2026) found that 87.7% of individual traders in equity F&O made net losses in FY26, with aggregate net losses of Rs 91,685 crore. [Read the SEBI study](https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports-and-statistics/research/aug-2026/study-profitability-of-individual-traders-in-the-equity-derivatives-segment-fy25-fy26-_103835.html) Is there a "sure shot" option strategy with 90% accuracy?No option strategy is certain. A high win rate is easy to produce by selling far out of the money options, which pays small amounts most of the time and loses far more on the rare day the index runs through the strikes, so a win rate alone cannot show accuracy or profit. Not a strategy. Win rate is not expectancy, and no dated test in the school shows that any option strategy is certain. A method described as certain is being sold, not shown. LGo deeper ## Where Learn teaches this. [Go deeperRed flags in F&O: tip groups, too good claims and registration checks7 min, Beginner](/learn/path-12/module-12-8-fo-red-flags) SSources ## Go to the source. 2 sources, NSE the most cited The publisher of each source listed below. Source: Module undefined source list. 1. [SEBI, Profitability of individual traders in the equity derivatives segment, FY25 to FY26 (Aug 2026)](https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports-and-statistics/research/aug-2026/study-profitability-of-individual-traders-in-the-equity-derivatives-segment-fy25-fy26-_103835.html) SEBI 2. [NSE, equity derivatives contract specifications (expiry cycle, lot size, settlement)](https://www.nseindia.com/static/products-services/equity-derivatives-contract-specifications) NSE ?Questions people ask ## Related questions. 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