--- title: "Trade book: hit rate, payoff, expectancy | RupeeCase" description: "The model trade book on the History tab: positions open and closed, hit rate, average win and loss, payoff, expectancy, profit factor and open P&L." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/learn/terminal/trade-book-statistics" --- ## Watch: Trade book In Advanced, History holds the model's trade book.Trade book: what do hit rate, payoff and expectancy mean? 5 chapters, 1:12, with voice and music 1. [Chapter 1Where it is0:08](/instiv2/media/tut4/trade-book-statistics-where-phone-dark-v4-va2.mp4) 2. [Chapter 2What it means0:32](/instiv2/media/tut4/trade-book-statistics-meaning-phone-dark-v4-va2.mp4) 3. [Chapter 3Worked example0:06](/instiv2/media/tut4/trade-book-statistics-example-phone-dark-v4-va2.mp4) 4. [Chapter 4How to read it0:16](/instiv2/media/tut4/trade-book-statistics-reading-phone-dark-v4-va2.mp4) 5. [Chapter 5Watch out0:10](/instiv2/media/tut4/trade-book-statistics-watch-phone-dark-v4-va2.mp4) Screens from the RupeeCase app on sample data. Strategy figures are model, back tested, as of the date on screen. Formula and example numbers are illustrative. Mark as watched 6In this screen ## Every button the video points at. A still from each chapter with its buttons and fields numbered. Pick a number to zoom in on it; hover the still for a close up; Esc shows the whole screen again. Sample data, no order is placed. **1**Where it is**2**What it means**4**How to read it ### Chapter 1: Where it is 1 Show the whole screen 1 Show the whole screen 1. 1**Trade book**In Advanced, History holds the model's trade book. Shown in the video, not on this still ### Chapter 2: What it means 1 Show the whole screen 1234 Show the whole screen 1. 1**Closed that gained**Hit rate: the share of closed positions that gained. Shown in the video, not on this still 2. 2**Win over loss**Payoff ratio: the average win over the average loss. Shown in the video, not on this still 3. 3**One position, on average**Expectancy: what one position returned, on average. Shown in the video, not on this still 4. 4**Weighted by size**Profit factor weighs each closed position by its size. Shown in the video, not on this still ### Chapter 4: How to read it 1 Show the whole screen 1. 1**On Rs 10,00,000**Open P&L on the notional: the open positions, on the model's Rs 10,00,000. Shown in the video, not on this still ## Where it is ScreenHistory tab, Trade bookAdvanced The History tab, Trade book card, in Advanced (strategy page). On a portfolio, the History tab's Model trade book: the strategy's positions opened since you invested, not your own trades. Index in this video: [Allcap](/strategies/allcap) (strategy page). ## What it means Each position the model opened counts as a trade: open until a rebalance sells it, closed after. Hit rate is the share of closed positions that gained. Average win and Average loss are the mean returns of the winners and of the losers; Payoff ratio divides one by the other. Expectancy per position combines them: what one position returned on average. Profit factor weighs each closed position by its size: gains over losses. Open P&L on the notional adds the open positions' weight times return, as a percent of the model's Rs 10,00,000. ## The formula The hit rate times the average win, plus the miss rate times the average loss, is the expectancy of one position. As computed in the RupeeCase app`Hit rate = closed positions above 0 / closed positions (flat counts as a miss) Payoff ratio = average win / size of the average loss Expectancy = hit rate x average win + (1 - hit rate) x average loss Profit factor = sum of weight x return over gains / size of the same over losses Open P&L on the notional = sum of weight x return over open positions` ## Worked example Example only * 10 closed positions: 4 gained +15% on average, 6 lost -5% * Hit rate 40%; payoff 15 / 5 = 3.0 * Expectancy 0.4 x 15 + 0.6 x (-5) = +3% a position ## How to read it * A hit rate under 50% can still give a positive expectancy when the wins are larger. * Profit factor above 1: closed gains outweighed closed losses, by size. * Best and worst position name the extremes; Average weeks held gives the pace. ## Watch out * Each position's return runs from its entry price to its exit price. * On a portfolio it is the model's book since you invested, not your own fills. * The positions are the model's, at a weight of the notional, not live holdings. ## Transcript Tap Sound on for voice and music. These are the captions of the video, chapter by chapter. 1. 0:00**Where it is.** In Advanced, History holds the model's trade book. 2. 0:08**What it means.** Hit rate: the share of closed positions that gained. 3. 0:40**Worked example.** Worked example, example only: 10 closed positions: 4 gained +15% on average, 6 lost -5%. Hit rate 40%; payoff 15 / 5 = 3.0. Expectancy 0.4 x 15 + 0.6 x (-5) = +3% a position. 4. 0:46**How to read it.** Open P&L on the notional: the open positions, on the model's Rs 10,00,000. 5. 1:02**Watch out.** Watch out: Each position's return runs from its entry price to its exit price. On a portfolio it is the model's book since you invested, not your own fills. The positions are the model's, at a weight of the notional, not live holdings. ## Terms in this tutorial * [Hit rate](/learn/glossary#hit-rate)The share of closed positions that made money. * [Average win and average loss](/learn/glossary#average-win-and-average-loss)The mean return of the closed positions that gained, and of those that lost. * [Expectancy per position](/learn/glossary#expectancy-per-position)The return one position made on average, once wins and losses are weighed by how often each happened. * [Profit factor](/learn/glossary#profit-factor)Everything the winning positions made divided by everything the losing ones lost. * [Best and worst position](/learn/glossary#best-and-worst-position)The single closed position with the highest return and the one with the lowest. * [Open P&L on the notional](/learn/glossary#open-p-and-l-on-the-notional)The gain or loss on the positions the model still holds, worked out on its pretend ₹10,00,000 rather than on real money. * [Trade book](/learn/glossary#trade-book)The record of every position the model opened and closed, with its entry, exit and return. ## Learn it in depth * [Module 2.5: Building Your First Systematic Strategy9 min read, free](/learn/path-2/module-2-5-building-your-first-strategy) * [Module 4.4: Performance Measurement9 min read, free](/learn/path-4/module-4-4-performance-measurement) TKeep watching ## Next tutorial. [1:41Next tutorial, Find and compareFilters, sort and shortlist: how do I narrow the list?Narrow the Marketplace with filters, order it with sort, keep a shortlist and, in Advanced, read it as a table with computed columns.Watch next](/learn/terminal/filters-sort-and-table) ### Related tutorials * [1:34Read a strategy, BasicHoldings, Returns, Risk, History: what is in each tab?1:34 video, BasicWatched](/learn/terminal/strategy-tabs) * [0:56Read a strategy, BasicRebalance cadence: how often does the strategy trade?0:56 video, BasicWatched](/learn/terminal/rebalance-cadence) * [0:53Your money, BasicModel cards on a portfolio: which figures are mine?0:53 video, BasicWatched](/learn/terminal/model-cards-vs-your-figures) [All 67 terminal tutorials](/learn/terminal/) Try it in Practice ## See it on your own screen. Practice mode runs the whole terminal without real orders, so you can open any strategy and find every screen from this tutorial for yourself. [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup)[Glossary](/learn/glossary) Explore next ## Keep learning the terminal. * [TutorialGrowth per year: how fast did the model grow?1:06 video, Basic](/learn/terminal/growth-per-year) * [TutorialMax drawdown: how bad did it get?0:56 video, Basic](/learn/terminal/max-drawdown) * [TutorialThe riskometer: what sets Low to Very High?0:45 video, Basic](/learn/terminal/riskometer) * [TutorialMinimum investment: why does each strategy have one?0:51 video, Basic](/learn/terminal/minimum-investment) * [TutorialRs 10,00,000 became: what do the hero figure and periods show?1:08 video, Basic](/learn/terminal/hero-figure-and-periods) * [TutorialThe benchmark line: what is the strategy compared with?0:57 video, Basic](/learn/terminal/benchmark-line) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. 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