--- title: "Risk of Ruin Calculator for Traders, Simulated | RupeeCase" description: "Free risk of ruin calculator: win rate, payoff ratio, risk per trade and ruin level, simulated with a seeded Monte Carlo, with the Kelly fraction shown." source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/learn/tools/risk-of-ruin" --- * Chance of ruin**4.3%**plus or minus 0.5% (sampling) * Edge per trade**0.00 R**R is the amount risked on one trade * Kelly fraction**No edge**Kelly is zero or below: at these odds the formula says to risk nothing * Median account**0.95x**after 250 trades, start 1.00x Range after 250 trades: the 5th percentile account is 0.54x and the 95th is 1.58x, of 2,000 simulated paths. You entered 4% a trade at odds with no edge, so a long run of trades drifts down. Model, not market data Median 0.95x, with a 4.3% chance of touching ruin The band holds 90% of the simulated paths. A path that touches the ruin level stops there. Inputs: win rate 80%, average win 0.25 times the average loss, 4% of the account risked on each trade, ruin at a 50% loss from the starting account, 250 trades, 2,000 simulated paths, seed 1. Source: RupeeCase model, seeded simulation. As of 17 Oct 2026.Model, not market data The same odds, sized up: the chance of ruin by risk per trade Same win rate, payoff, trades and seed; only the share of the account risked on each trade changes. Inputs: win rate 80%, average win 0.25 times the average loss, 4% of the account risked on each trade, ruin at a 50% loss from the starting account, 250 trades, 2,000 simulated paths, seed 1. Source: RupeeCase model, seeded simulation. As of 17 Oct 2026. Each trade risks 4% of the current account: a win multiplies it by 1.0100, a loss by 0.9600. Kelly is p − (1 − p) / b, with p the win rate and b the payoff ratio. Full Kelly maximises long run growth if the odds are known exactly; they never are, and full Kelly rides deep drawdowns. The simulation ignores costs, slippage and changing odds. A simulation of the arithmetic of the inputs, labelled Model, not market data. It uses no prices and gives no signal, and this page cannot trade. ## How to read it ### The inputs describe a trade, not a market Win rate and payoff ratio (average win over average loss) set the edge: win rate times payoff, minus the loss rate, in units of the amount risked, written R. A high win rate with a small payoff can have no edge at all. ### Size decides the outcome Each trade risks a fixed share of the current account. The second chart keeps the odds and changes only that share, which is where most of the chance of ruin comes from. ### Ruin is a level you choose Pick the loss that counts as ruin, measured from the starting account or from the highest point so far (a drawdown). A path that touches it stops there. ### Kelly The Kelly fraction is the share of the account that maximises long run growth if the odds are known exactly. They never are, and full Kelly rides deep drawdowns, so it is shown as a reference line, not as a goal. At odds with no edge it is zero or below. ### Seeded The same inputs and seed always give the same answer. Change the seed to see the sampling noise, which is the plus or minus figure. Sizing is taught in [the position sizing module](/learn/path-12/module-12-7-position-sizing-and-risk-of-ruin) and [the Kelly module](/learn/path-17/module-17-22-kelly-sizing). ## What it leaves out The simulation assumes every trade is independent with the same odds. Real trades cluster, odds drift, losses can gap past a stop, and costs cut the edge. It cannot say which side of SEBI's finding a strategy sits on. ## Go to the source 1. [SEBI, Profitability of Individual Traders in the Equity Derivatives Segment, FY25 to FY26 (August 2026)](https://www.sebi.gov.in/reports-and-statistics/research/aug-2026/study-profitability-of-individual-traders-in-the-equity-derivatives-segment-fy25-fy26-_103835.html) What is risk of ruin?The chance that the account falls to a level you call ruin before the run of trades ends, given the win rate, the payoff and the size of each trade. Is this a forecast of my results?No. It shows what the entered odds and size imply. The odds of real trading are not known, and they change. Why does a high win rate not protect the account?Win rate says how often, payoff says how much. Winning 80% of the time for 0.25 R each has the same edge as a coin flip with even payoffs: none. LLearn it in depth [Module 12.7Position sizing and risk of ruin for F&O beginnersBeginner, Path 12](/learn/path-12/module-12-7-position-sizing-and-risk-of-ruin)[Module 17.22Kelly and sizing for option strategiesAdvanced, Path 17](/learn/path-17/module-17-22-kelly-sizing)[ToolPayoff builderLegs from a dated chain](/learn/tools/payoff-builder)[Pillar guideDerivatives and QuantPaths 12 to 19](/learn/derivatives) Explore next ## Learn the idea behind the numbers. * [CalculatorGreeks calculatorDelta to rho, and vanna to colour in expert mode, from one Black 76 engine.](/learn/tools/greeks-calculator) * [QuestionsQuestions on futures and optionsShort answers, each with a dated chart](/learn/questions/) * [Free module 12.7Position sizing and risk of ruin for F&O beginners8 min read](/learn/path-12/module-12-7-position-sizing-and-risk-of-ruin) * [Free module 17.22Kelly and sizing for option strategies10 min read](/learn/path-17/module-17-22-kelly-sizing) * [ToolOption payoff builderLegs on a dated Nifty chain, breakevens and charges](/learn/tools/payoff-builder) * [PillarDerivatives and QuantFutures, options, Greeks and more, from dated NSE data](/learn/derivatives) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. New to RupeeCase? [Getting started](/getting-started) [See the terminal](/terminal) [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup) [Join the WhatsApp group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7) [One form, one group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7)Scan with your phone camera Education only, not investment advice, a research report or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security. RupeeCase (QC Alpha Technologies Pvt Ltd) is not registered with SEBI as an investment adviser or research analyst. Contracts and prices shown are for illustration only, come from NSE end of day files at least 30 days old, and are not recommendatory. Derivatives trading carries a high risk of loss.