--- title: "Crude $102 and 2.86 Lakh Shorts, Nifty | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Crude $102 shock, GIFT down 335 to 23,756. FII at -2,86,227 shorts (S2 peak) but cash buyers +672 Cr | hedged accumulation, not panic. Expiry Monday." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-13 episode: 18 season: 2 date: 2026-04-13 duration_seconds: 588 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2730492/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_04_13_03_04_44_536794ed-2dfb-49d9-8234-a1173b65c421.mp3 grade: before the public trail generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Crude $102 and 2.86 lakh shorts The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP18, Monday 13 Apr 2026, 9:48. Crude $102 shock, GIFT down 335 to 23,756 ## Scorecard Aired before the public prediction trail began on 29 Apr 2026; not graded on the five call scale and not counted in the season hit rate. ## Chapters ### 1. Market overview (about 0:00, estimated) Brent crude just spiked 7.5% overnight to $102. GIFT Nifty is gapping down 335 points to 23,756. Asia is red across the board. FII are sitting on 2,86,227 short contracts, the highest this entire season. Happy expiry Monday. India's pre-market edge, actionable data, zero fluff. Season 2, Episode 18. Monday, 13th April. Nifty weekly expiry. Brent crude blew through $100 overnight. Was $94.45 on Friday. Now $102.30, up 7.45% in a single session. WTI $104.90, up 8.6%. Hormuz situation worsened over the weekend. Dow futures 47,570, down 0.72%. Nikkei down 0.9%. Hang Seng down 1%. KOSPI down 1.27%. Asia uniformly red. Gold at $4,722, actually down 0.6%, profit-taking. Dollar index 99.02, was 100.19 on Friday, dollar weakened despite risk-off. Not a broad panic, crude-specific repricing. GIFT Nifty at 23,756. Down 335 points from Friday's 24,050. 1.39% gap-down. Opened at 23,900, slipped to intraday low of 23,737. ### 2. F&O positioning (about 2:00, estimated) Pro traders at +91 contracts. Essentially flat. Neutral. Holding long puts and long calls, hedged both ways. Not making a directional bet. FII added 58,509 short contracts in a single day on Friday. Net position -2,86,227, highest short position of the entire season. Not even during March lows were they this short. But here's the paradox, same FII were net cash buyers at +672 crore on Friday. First time in weeks. Long puts 3,33,261 contracts. Short calls 1,78,598. This isn't panic selling. Full institutional hedge book. Short the index as overlay, buy equities underneath. Collar strategy. With crude spiking 7.5% and GIFT down 335 points, those 2,86,227 shorts are printing beautifully this morning. Do they take profit and cover, or hold through the holiday tomorrow? Client, max bullish on Friday. +1,43,284 long futures. Short 4,89,193 puts, selling insurance to FII. Long 1,26,761 calls. All underwater this morning. Forced unwinding in the first hour. ### 3. Options & GEX analysis (about 4:04, estimated) Gamma flip zone at 24,050, exactly where Nifty closed Friday. GIFT at 23,756 = opening 300 points below the flip. Negative gamma territory. Market makers short gamma, they amplify moves. Aggressive, volatile open expected. 24,000 strike has 53 lakh total OI. Put OI alone 67 lakh contracts, gravitational magnet. Above 24,050, GEX turns positive. 24,200 call wall with GEX 2,776. 24,300 at 2,514, resistance zones, not breaking through today. Friday straddle at 24,000: 283. 1-standard-deviation range: 23,646 to 24,354. GIFT at 23,756 is within range, barely. VIX spike 10-15% on open expected, realized range will widen. Key levels: 23,700 GEX support, below that, moves accelerate. 24,000 expiry pin. 24,050 gamma flip. 24,200 first call wall. Below 23,646 = broken 1SD floor, real trouble. ### 4. Screener & IV (about 5:47, estimated) Screener flipped to BUY on Friday at 23,977. Projected price 24,040. Gapping well below both levels this morning. Doesn't invalidate the buy signal, market handing you a pullback into the buy zone. Rolling 3-trade accuracy almost 5%. Screener buying into fear. IV was 17.08 Friday, sell IV territory. With this crude shock gap, IV going to spike. Day-1 of a fresh volatility event. Don't sell premium at the open. Let VIX spike. Let first 30-45 minutes play out. If VIX starts cooling, then sell. Sectors: Energy and metals leading. Crude $100+ gives energy fresh tailwind but double-edged for India. IT on Strong Buy after TCS monster quarter, $30B revenue, AI $2.3B annualized, 25% margins. Banking takes hit on gap-down, watch Bank Nifty 54,000. ### 5. Education: rebalance mechanics (about 7:24, estimated) Today is RupeeCase rebalance day. How systematic rebalancing works: every 2 weeks, RupeeCase Nifty strategy re-scores all 50 stocks on momentum. Top 10 get equal weight. No opinions. No 'I feel bullish on this name.' Pure data. If momentum fades, stock exits. New name accelerates, it enters. The discipline is doing this on a day like today, market gapping down 300 points and gut says 'wait.' Systematic strategy doesn't wait. It executes. Exactly why it has generated 6.9% alpha over the benchmark. ### 6. Trading plan & levels (about 8:29, estimated) Expiry day gap-down into negative gamma with crude shock catalyst. VIX spikes first 30-60 minutes. Could test 23,700 or even 23,650 if panic. But expiry days with massive OI at ATM strike are mean-reverting. 24,000 strike with 53 lakh contracts acting as magnet. Market finds low in first 1-2 hours, grinds back toward 23,900-24,000 by close. Day ends negative, probably -0.5% to -1% from Friday. This is a buy-on-dips week. Today's dip is the entry. Don't chase the panic. Wait for the mean reversion. 6 out of the last 7 reads have been right. Let's keep the streak going. Track the rebalance live, rupeecase.com. ## Key takeaways - Crude $102 shock, GIFT down 335 to 23,756 - FII -2,86,227 shorts (S2 peak) but +672 Cr cash buyers = hedged accumulation - Client max bullish, all underwater this morning - Gamma flip at 24,050, opening 300 pts below in negative gamma - Straddle 283 at 24K, 1SD range 23,646-24,354 - Screener BUY signal at 23,977, gap-down is pullback into buy zone - RupeeCase rebalance day: metal+IT entering, pharma exiting ## Quotes > Those 2,86,227 shorts are printing beautifully this morning > This isn't panic selling. This is a full institutional hedge book, collar strategy > A systematic strategy doesn't wait. It executes > Today's dip is the entry. Don't chase the panic. Wait for the mean reversion ## Transcript 5% overnight to $102. Gift Nifty is gapping down by 340 points to 23,756. Asia is red across the board and FIs are sitting on 2,86,000 short contracts. The highest we have seen in recent times. Happy expiry Monday. This is India's pre-market edge. Actionable data, zero bluff. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2 Episode 18. It's Monday the 13th of April, Nifty expiry. Let's go. Brent crude just blew through 100. It was trading around 94 on Friday. 5% in a single session. WTI is up by 9% and is trading around 105. The Hormuz situation clearly worsened over the weekend. This is the main gap down catalyst for today morning. 72% in the pre-market opening from Friday's close. 9%. Hang Seng is down by 1%. 2%. Asia is uniformly red. 6%. Some profit taking has happened over there as well. 02. Here's something interesting. 20 on Friday. Dollar actually weakened despite the risk off. That tells you this isn't a broad panic. It's just a crude specific repricing that we are seeing. GIFT Nifty is at 23,756. Down 335 points from Friday's close. 4% gap down. Opened at 23,900 today morning and has already slipped to an intraday low of 23,735. This is crude shock repricing. Now here's where it gets interesting. Let me walk you through Friday's positioning because that's what's going to drive today's action at open. Pro traders were flat. They had just 91 contracts. Basically neutral on the futures side. They were holding long puts and long calls. Both are hedged. Pro isn't making a directional bet. FIs on Friday added 58,000 short contracts in futures in a single session. That took their net position to 2,86,000 short. The highest short position we have seen in recent times. Not even during the March lows were they this short. But here's the paradox. The same FIs were net cash buyers at 672 crores on Friday. First time in weeks they have bought in the cash market. They bought puts, long puts around 3,30,000 contracts. Sold calls around 1,78,000 contracts. This isn't panic selling. This is a full institutional hedge book. Short the index as an overlay, buy equities underneath. It's a collar strategy. 5% this morning and GIFT Nifty down 335 points, those short futures are printing beautifully this morning for FIs. The question is: do they take profits today and cover, or hold through the holiday tomorrow? Clients were max bullish on Friday. They had 1,43,000 long futures. Short 4,89,000 puts. They were selling insurance to FIs. Along with that, 1,26,000 long calls. All of that is underwater this morning. When the crowd goes all in and gets hit with a crude shock, that's forced unwinding in the first hour of trade. Now the GEX picture. The gamma flip zone is sitting right around 24,000, exactly where Nifty closed on Friday. With GIFT Nifty at 23,750, we are opening about 300 points below the flip. That means we start the day in negative gamma territory. Market makers are short gamma. They amplify moves. Expect an aggressive volatile open. The 24,000 strike has massive 53 lakh total OI. Put OI alone stands at 67 lakh contracts. That's the gravitational magnet. Above 24,050 the GEX turns positive. 24,200 is your call wall with GEX at positive 2,776. Those are the resistance zones. Not breaking those today. Straddle traded at 283. That gives us a 1 standard deviation range of roughly 23,650 on the bottom side and 24,350 on the upside. GIFT Nifty at 23,750 is within that 1SD range, barely. But if VIX spikes 10 to 15% on open, the realized range will widen. Key levels: 23,700 is the GEX support. Below that, moves accelerate. 24,000 is the expiry pin. 24,200 is the first resistance. Below 23,650 you've broken the 1SD floor, and that's real trouble. 08 on Friday. With this morning crude shock and gap down, IV is going to spike. This is day one of a fresh volatility event. Don't sell premiums at open. Let VIX settle. Let the first 30 to 35 minutes play out. If VIX starts cooling off that spike, then you sell. Sector wise, energy and metals have been leading. With crude breaking $100 again, energy names get a fresh tailwind. But double edged sword for India. IT was showing strength after TCS monster quarter. But some TCS bad news is hitting the markets as well. Banking likely takes a hit in today's gap down. Watch if Bank Nifty holds 54,000. Today is also RupeeCase Nifty's rebalancing day. Every two weeks the strategy rescores all 50 stocks on momentum. Top 10 get equal weighted. No opinions. Pure data. If a stock's momentum fades, it exits. If a new name accelerates, it enters. A metal stock is entering. An IT stock is entering. Some pharma names are exiting. A systematic strategy doesn't wait. It executes. My read for today: expiry day gap down into negative gamma with a crude shock catalyst. VIX will spike in the first 30 to 60 minutes. Could test 23,650 if panic sets in. But the massive OI at 24,000 acts as a magnet. I expect the market to find a low in the first one or two hours, then grind back toward 23,800 to 23,900 by close. 5 to 1% from Friday. But this is a buy on dips week. Today's dip is the entry. Don't chase the panic. Wait for mean reversion. com. See exactly what enters and exits the portfolio. That's your edge for today. If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I am building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you all once again on Wednesday, the 15th. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - April 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-04/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP17, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-10 - Next: EP19, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-15 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.