--- title: "The Hedges Came Off Yesterday. The Gap | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Yesterday on a green day, two of the biggest desks on the chain quietly took their hedges off. Pro cut 33,566 long puts. FII cut 56,058. Both at IV 15.89%." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-28 episode: 28 season: 2 date: 2026-04-28 duration_seconds: 529 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2773507/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_04_28_03_13_32_1962c8f8-49c2-4ca9-a68c-d6e107c77cc9.mp3 grade: 3/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # The hedges came off yesterday. The gap opened at the magnet The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP28, Tuesday 28 Apr 2026, 8:49. Mon 27 Apr close 24,092.70 (+194.75, +0.81%), VIX crushed -6.84% to 18.37 ## Scorecard Grade 3/5 (60 percent): 3 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded the next trading day, 29 Apr 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Monthly Expiry ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: smart desks tell you their conviction by what they trim (about 0:00, estimated) There is a thing that smart desks do that almost nobody talks about. They tell you their conviction not by what they buy. By what they trim. Yesterday, on a green day, with Nifty up 0.81%, two of the biggest desks on the chain quietly took their hedges off. Pro cut 33,566 long puts. FII cut 56,058. Both on the way up. Both at IV 15.89%. That is not bleed at that vol level. That is conviction. Then the market opened today. And it gave us the magnet at the bell. GIFT Nifty minus 93. Right at 24,000. Which is exactly where the chain wanted to be. This is The Tanmay Edge episode 28. Monthly plus weekly Nifty expiry stacked on the same day. The biggest gamma collision of the cycle. ### 2. The Walk-Up to Monday: walls migrated up (about 1:01, estimated) Rewind 72 hours. Friday closed at 23,898. Brent at 107. USD INR 94.25. Crude was hot, currency was breaking, and the AND gate was live both legs going into Monday. Monday came and the tape did something I did not expect. It just ignored the macro stress and rallied. Up 195 points. Vol crushed 6.84% on a green day. VIX closed at 18.37. Writers won the day for the 5th straight session. By the close, Nifty sat at 24,092. The chain reorganized in front of us. 24,000 became the mega magnet, 19.41M option lines stacked at one strike. PCR 2.2. The floor walked up to 24,050 with 4.28M fresh put OI added in one session. The old wall at 24,200 got trimmed by 4,80,000 contracts. And a brand new ceiling appeared at 24,300, 1.91M fresh call OI added in the same session. Walls do not just sit there at expiry. They migrate. Yesterday they migrated up. Hedges off. Ceiling up. Vol crushed. The setup looked like a clean pin into Tuesday. ### 3. The overnight twist: Brent did not cool (about 2:24, estimated) Then overnight happened. Brent did not cool. It went the other way. From 107.45 at 6:30 last evening to 109.38 by 8:00 this morning. Almost 2 dollars added in 14 hours. The Brent leg of the AND gate is widening, not narrowing, into expiry. USD INR held at 94.19. Did not break 94.50. So the FX leg is flat. But European yields ticked up overnight. France 10 year up 1.18%. Germany 10 year up 0.97%. UK 10 year up 0.85%. The bond market is repricing inflation while crude refuses to settle. US held the records. S&P 7173. Nasdaq 24,887. Dow futures up 60 points. Nothing wrong there. But Asia rolled. Nikkei -0.51% off yesterday's 60,537 record. Hang Seng -0.63%. Jakarta -0.63%. Only KOSPI +0.89% and Taiwan +0.40% stayed bid. So GIFT opens minus 93. Right at 24,000. The magnet itself. At the bell. ### 4. What the open means: the pin is a question, not a target (about 3:34, estimated) Here is the part I want you to sit with. A gap-down that lands exactly at the magnet does not make the pin easier. It makes it harder. And this is mechanical, not subjective. In a normal pin day, spot trades sideways, theta bleeds the straddle, vol crushes further, premium goes to zero by 3:30. The chain pulls spot to the strike where call writers and put writers are stacked together. That strike today is 24,000. The market just delivered that level at the open. The pin is not a target anymore. It is a question. If 24,000 holds as floor, we are still inside the pin scenario. Spot drifts 24,000 to 24,150 all day. The straddle at 187 prints. Branch A. Base case. If 24,000 breaks, the magnet flips function. From support to launch pad. Spot punches to 23,950 fast, and that opens the path to 23,827 (1SD lower band on a 213 straddle). Branch C. With Brent 109, with Asia red, with the gap at the magnet on day one, I think Branch C is materially in play. Maybe 1 in 4. Maybe 1 in 3. Higher than I would have called it Monday evening. The Pro desks that pulled puts yesterday were betting 24,000 holds. The macro this morning is testing that bet inside the first 5 minutes. ### 5. FII paradox sidebar: insuring a long, not calling a crash (about 5:19, estimated) One quick note before I land the trade. FII added 1902 fresh shorts on a green day yesterday. Light add. Headline says they are bear. Headline is wrong. FII index short futures book is 2,05,981 contracts. FII stock futures long book is 9,00,258 contracts. Ratio 4.37 to 1. That ratio grew from 4.26 in one session. This is not a directional bear bet. This is a portfolio hedge against a long stock book that grew bigger Monday than it was Friday. FII is not calling a crash. They are insuring a long. Read it that way every time you see those headlines. ### 6. The call: buy on dips with hedge, less certain today (about 6:08, estimated) Here is where I land. And I am going to be straight with you. I am less certain today than I was Monday evening. My base view is buy on dips with hedge. Same as last episode. But the conditions changed. Buy on dips, because. The structural setup is intact. Hedges removed at IV 15.89. Pro futures long doubled to 23,894 contracts Monday, plus 22,753 fresh long calls. FII pair trade growing on the long stock side, plus 31,718 fresh stock long contracts. None of that unwinds in one gap-down. With hedge, because. Brent at 109.38 is not noise. The AND gate has been live 6 sessions now. Yesterday the tape ignored it. Today it might not. If 24,000 breaks at the open, 23,950 comes fast, and the trade is upside-down without a put underneath. Where I might be wrong specifically. If Asia stays soft. If Brent prints 110 plus intraday. If USD INR breaks 94.50 by lunch. Any one of those, and Branch C goes from possible to probable. My plan. Buy zone 24,000 to 24,050 if the gap holds and we get a quick reclaim above 24,050 in the first 30 minutes. Hedge 23,900 PE at 165 (will reprice 175 to 195 on the gap-down open, still cheap given IV 15.89). If 24,000 breaks and does not reclaim by 10 AM, I am not buying. Sitting in the hedge, waiting for 23,950 to test as support. Cap is 24,300, not 24,200. The wall walked up. Trim there if we get there. ### 7. Sign-Off: be right about one level. 24,000. (about 8:07, estimated) The thing about a monthly plus weekly expiry on the same day is that the chain decides faster than you can read the news. 30 million lines of OI all settle in 6 and a half hours. You do not need to be right about direction today. You need to be right about one level. 24,000. Watch what it does in the first 30 minutes. The rest of the day reads itself. The traders who win consistently are not smarter. They are earlier. You just got earlier here. Have a happy expiry. ## Key takeaways - Mon 27 Apr close 24,092.70 (+194.75, +0.81%), VIX crushed -6.84% to 18.37 - Pro cut 33,566 long puts on the green day rally, conviction trim at IV 15.89% - FII cut 56,058 long puts in same session, second institutional desk pulling hedge - GIFT Nifty -93 at the bell, gap-down opens at 24,000, the magnet itself - Mon chain rebuild, 24,000 mega magnet (19.41M lines, PCR 2.2) - Floor migrated UP to 24,050, 4.28M fresh put OI in one session - Old 24,200 wall TRIMMED -4,80,000 contracts, fresh 24,300 ceiling built (+1.91M) - Walls migrate at expiry, yesterday they migrated UP, not sideways - Brent 107.45 to 109.38 overnight, +$2 in 14 hours, AND gate widening - USD INR 94.19 held, did not break 94.50 (FX leg flat) - European yields ticked up, bonds repricing inflation while crude refuses to settle - Asia rolled, Nikkei -0.51% off 60,537 record, Hang Seng -0.63%, Jakarta -0.63% - Pro doubled futures long to 23,894 + added 22,753 fresh long calls Monday - FII pair trade grew, +31,718 fresh stock long, ratio 4.37:1 vs 4.26:1 Friday - Branch A, 24,000 holds to spot drifts 24,000-24,150, straddle 187 prints - Branch C, 24,000 breaks to 23,950 fast, path to 23,827 (1SD lower band) - Branch C upgraded to 1 in 4, maybe 1 in 3, not a tail with Brent 109 + Asia red - Buy zone 24,000-24,050 ONLY if gap reclaims 24,050 in first 30 min - Hedge 23,900 PE at 165 (will reprice 175-195 on gap-down), still cheap at IV 15.89 - Cap migrated to 24,300, not 24,200, trim there if we get there - Monthly + weekly expiry stacked, 30M lines of OI settle in 6.5 hours - One-level rule, be right about 24,000, the rest reads itself ## Quotes > There is a thing that smart desks do that almost nobody talks about. They tell you their conviction not by what they buy. By what they trim. > > Cold open hook on Pro and FII pulling put hedges Monday on a green day > That is not bleed at that vol level. That is conviction. > > Reading hedge removal at IV 15.89 as institutional conviction signal > Walls do not just sit there at expiry. They migrate. Yesterday, they migrated up. > > Wall migration mechanic, 24200 trimmed, fresh 24300 ceiling built > A gap-down that lands exactly at the magnet does not make the pin easier. It makes it harder. > > Why gap-open AT the pin level is mechanically destabilising > The pin is not the target anymore. It is a question. > > Reframing 24000 from magnet to test on monthly+weekly expiry day > FII is not calling a crash. They are insuring a long. Read it that way every time you see those headlines. > > FII paradox education line, 4.37:1 stock-long to index-short ratio > I am going to be straight with you today. I am less certain today than I was yesterday evening. > > Honest uncertainty acknowledgement on the call given Brent 109 + Asia red > You do not need to be right about direction today. You need to be right about one level. 24,000. > > One-level rule sign-off for max-gamma expiry day ## Transcript There is a thing that smart desks do that almost nobody talks about. They tell you their conviction not by what they buy. By what they trim. 81%, two of the biggest desks on the chain quietly took their hedges off. Pro cut 33,566 long puts. FII cut 56,058. Both on the way up. 89%. That is not bleed at that vol level. That is conviction. Then the market opened today. And it gave us the magnet at the bell. GIFT Nifty minus 93. Right at 24,000. Which is exactly where the chain wanted to be. This is The Tanmay Edge episode 28. Monthly plus weekly Nifty expiry stacked on the same day. The biggest gamma collision of the cycle. Let me walk you through what changed overnight, what did not, and what I am actually doing about it. Rewind 72 hours. Friday closed at 23,898. Brent at 107. USD/INR 94 and 25 paise. Crude was hot, currency was breaking, and the AND gate, which is the macro tell I have been tracking, was live both legs going into Monday. Monday came and the tape did something I did not expect. It just ignored the macro stress and rallied. Up 195 points. 84% on a green day. 37. Writers won the day for the 5th straight session. By the close, Nifty sat at 24,092. And the chain reorganized in front of us. The new map looked like this. 24,000 became the mega magnet. 41 million option lines stacked at one strike. 2. 28 million fresh put OI added in one session. The old wall at 24,200 got trimmed by 4,80,000 contracts. And a brand new ceiling appeared at 24,300. 91 million fresh call OI added in the same session. That is not normal. Walls do not just sit there at expiry. They migrate. Yesterday they migrated up. Hedges off. Ceiling up. Vol crushed. The setup looked like a clean pin into Tuesday. Then overnight happened. Brent did not cool. It went the other way. From 107 and 45 cents at 6:30 last evening to 109 and 38 cents by 8:00 this morning. Almost 2 dollars added in 14 hours. The Brent leg of the AND gate is widening, not narrowing, into expiry. USD/INR held at 94 and 19 paise. Did not break 94 and 50. So the FX leg is flat. But European yields ticked up overnight. 18%. 97%. 85%. The bond market is repricing inflation while crude refuses to settle. US held the records. S and P 7173. Nasdaq 24,887. Dow futures up 60 points. Nothing wrong there. But Asia rolled. 51% off yesterday's 60,537 record. 63%. 63%. 40% stayed bid. So GIFT opens minus 93. Right at 24,000. The magnet itself. At the bell. Now ask yourself this. 89, what does that gap-down feel like when you wake up and see Brent at 109. Here is the part I want you to sit with. A gap-down that lands exactly at the magnet does not make the pin easier. It makes it harder. And this is mechanical, not subjective. In a normal pin day, spot trades sideways, theta bleeds the straddle, vol crushes further, premium goes to zero by 3:30. The chain pulls spot to the strike where call writers and put writers are stacked together. That strike today is 24,000. The market just delivered that level at the open. The pin is not a target anymore. It is a question. If 24,000 holds as floor, we are still inside the pin scenario. Spot drifts 24,000 to 24,150 all day. The straddle at 187 prints. Branch A. That is base case. If 24,000 breaks. That is when the magnet flips function. From support to launch pad. Spot punches to 23,950 fast, and that opens the path to 23827, which is the 1 standard deviation lower band on a 213 straddle. That is Branch C. I will not pretend Branch C is a tail today. With Brent 109, with Asia red, with the gap at the magnet on day one, I think Branch C is materially in play. Maybe 1 in 4. Maybe 1 in 3. Higher than I would have called it Monday evening. The Pro desks that pulled puts yesterday were betting 24,000 holds. The macro this morning is testing that bet inside the first 5 minutes. One quick note before I land the trade. Because this comes up every time I post FII numbers. FII added 1902 fresh shorts on a green day yesterday. Light add. Headline says they are bear. Headline is wrong. FII index short futures book is 2,05,981 contracts. FII stock futures long book is 9,00,258 contracts. 37 to 1. 26 in one session. This is not a directional bear bet. This is a portfolio hedge against a long stock book that grew bigger Monday than it was Friday. FII is not calling a crash. They are insuring a long. Read it that way every time you see those headlines. Here is where I land. And I am going to be straight with you. I am less certain today than I was Monday evening. My base view is buy on dips with hedge. Same as last episode. But the conditions changed and I want to walk you through both sides. Buy on dips, because. The structural setup that got us here is intact. 89. Pro futures long doubled to 23,894 contracts Monday, plus 22,753 fresh long calls. FII pair trade growing on the long stock side, plus 31,718 fresh stock long contracts. None of that unwinds in one gap-down. The institutional structure is still constructive on a 1 to 2 week view. With hedge, because. Brent at 109 and 38 cents is not noise. The AND gate has been live 6 sessions now. Yesterday the tape ignored it. Today it might not. If 24,000 breaks at the open, 23,950 comes fast, and the trade is upside-down without a put underneath. Where I might be wrong today specifically. If Asia stays soft through our open. If Brent prints 110 plus intraday. If USD/INR breaks 94 and 50 by lunch. Any one of those, and Branch C goes from possible to probable. So my plan. Buy zone 24,000 to 24,050 if the gap holds and we get a quick reclaim above 24,050 in the first 30 minutes. Hedge 23,900 PE at 165. That price is from yesterday. It will reprice on the gap-down open, probably 175 to 195. 89 and 24 hours to expiry. If 24,000 breaks in the first 30 minutes and does not reclaim by 10 AM, I am not buying. I am sitting in the hedge and waiting for 23,950 to test as support before doing anything. Cap is 24300, not 24,200. The wall walked up. Trim there if we get there. For straddle sellers. Same level. 24,000 to 24,150 if the gap reclaims. Skip the trade if it does not. Premium rebuilds fast on a break, and the pin can blow before noon on a max-gamma day. The thing about a monthly plus weekly expiry on the same day is that the chain decides faster than you can read the news. 30 million lines of OI all settle in 6 and a half hours. You do not need to be right about direction today. You need to be right about one level. 24,000. Watch what it does in the first 30 minutes. The rest of the day reads itself. The traders who win consistently are not smarter. They are earlier. You just got earlier here. Have a happy expiry. This was The Tanmay Edge episode 28. com. See you tomorrow. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - April 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-04/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP27, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-27 - Next: EP29, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-04-29 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.