--- title: "Brent Cracked 104. GIFT Gap Down. Buy The | The Tanmay Edge" description: "The Iran tail came back. Brent jumped 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle to 104.65 Monday open." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-11 episode: 36 season: 2 date: 2026-05-11 duration_seconds: 533 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2811776/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_05_11_02_45_21_7ae0e20f-4bf6-44b1-8397-60e4047b2e5e.mp3 grade: 5/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Brent cracked 104. GIFT gap down. Buy the floor with a hedge The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP36, Monday 11 May 2026, 8:53. EP35 graded 2 of 5 Friday, wing held by 252, pin breached by 24, banks broke long carry ## Scorecard Grade 5/5 (100 percent): 5 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 12 May 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Daily Wing held by 3.85 pts at close. RC alpha plus 0.51 confirmed. VIX broke 17 to close 18.51 (10-session sub-19 streak broken). Brent stayed in 100-105 at India close. Best band-defence print of S2. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: the wing is about to pay (about 0:00, estimated) I called the range Friday. Two for five. The wide wing held by 252 points. The tight pin breached by 24. Banks broke the long carry first. I should have been celebrating the wing. I was not. Because the Iran tail came back at noon Friday. By Sunday night Brent had cracked 104. By Monday open GIFT is down 179. The wing the chain priced Friday is about to pay this morning. This is The Tanmay Edge. EP36. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. ### 2. Three numbers run this open (about 0:48, estimated) Brent 104.65 on the 07:38 IST international print. Up 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle. WTI 99.07 up 3.82. The Strait of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape if not on the wires. GIFT Nifty 24,060.50. Down 179. Gap-down 0.74 against Friday cash close 24,176.15. We open near the 24,000 floor on the first tick. US closed records Friday. S&P 7398.93 ATH. Nasdaq 26,247.08 ATH. Monday morning Dow futures print 49,456 down 152. The US already started giving back. ### 3. Asia split + yields + the only good news (about 1:50, estimated) Asia split. KOSPI up 4.55 catching up. Nikkei down 0.29. Hang Seng down 0.47. Taiwan up 0.50. Jakarta down 2.94 because oil importers got punished. Shanghai up 0.60. The split tells you the world is not all bearish. The oil importers are. India is the oil importer. Yields up. India 10Y 6.96. US 10Y 4.39. Both bid this morning. Dollar Index 98.05. USD/INR 94.47 Friday close. The rupee held below 95 even with Brent at 104. That is the only good news on the macro card. ### 4. Chain read: two walls, three floors, one magnet (about 2:42, estimated) 24,200 was the magnet Friday. 61,11,545 contracts in one session at one strike. Largest single-strike write of season two. Writers picked a magnet not a direction. They also said this is where the fight is. 24,500 wall. 98,81,690 contracts. 25,500 ceiling. 1,16,23,430 with 43,03,000 added in one session. Two walls. One thousand points apart. Monday trades the lane between. 24,000 floor. 72,44,250 puts. 23,500 deep floor. 81,92,600. 23,000 ultra-deep floor. 73,20,950 with 6,86,335 added Friday. The chain built three floors. Then it built the deepest one biggest. Writers priced 23,000 harder than 23,500 in one session. ### 5. Wing math: the range the chain priced (about 3:52, estimated) ATM 24,200 straddle Friday close 291.30. Times 1.25. 364 each side. The four-day Mon-Tue range the chain priced. 23,812 to 24,540. GIFT 24,060 opens 248 above the wing floor. 480 below the wing ceiling. The wing started to pay before cash opened. ### 6. POV: buy the floor, hedge on top, long gamma (about 4:19, estimated) Buy on dips. With a hedge. The hedge costs more today. Pay it anyway. The buy zone is the floor. 23,950 to 24,050. We are there at the first tick if GIFT holds. The 12-May 23,800 PE was sold Friday at 25.20. By the time you read this it is twice that. Buy it anyway. The wing is the floor today. The floor is the hedge today. IV opens up. India VIX 16.84 close Friday. Intraday high tagged 17.43. Monday the print goes higher first. Long gamma day rule. When vol is going up and spot is moving fast, you buy options. You do not sell them. Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17. Not before. ### 7. Three branches + triggers first hour (about 5:27, estimated) Base case 50 percent. Spot opens 24,050 to 24,100. Tests 23,950. Bounces. Fades to 24,200 broken pin floor as resistance. Wing rents the morning. Premium selling later only if VIX cracks back below 17. Escalation 35 percent. Spot prints 23,812. The 23,000 ultra-deep floor that the chain built bigger than 23,500 in one session becomes the live test. EP30 playbook back in. Wing-rent week. Hedge first cash second. De-escalation 15 percent. Brent retraces to 100 zone by noon. US 10Y falls below 4.30. Spot retakes 24,200. Range frame revives. Buy dips at 24,050 holds. Banks re-bid resumes. Branch triggers active first hour. Brent above 105 confirms escalation. Below 100 confirms de-escalation. Bank Nifty futures basis at open positive means FII unwound the unwind. Negative or wider means long carry stays broken. Pro chain 11:30 IST tells you whether short calls came off or stayed on. ### 8. Education + calibration: same put, two jobs (about 7:06, estimated) Bands always hold. Points never do. Three sessions in a row direction was right and levels were tight under one ATR. EP33 wall flexed by 30. EP34 magnet held by 44. EP35 floor breached by 24. Three sessions of the chain talking in bands and me predicting points. This week I trade the band. The chain calls the lean. The hedge does the work. When the wing pays, the hedge graduates to the buy. The 23,800 PE I called as wing protection Friday is the same option that opens as the buy this morning. The chain does not re-price it as a different contract. The trader has to re-read it as a different role. Friday it was insurance. Monday it is a hedge under fresh longs at 24,050. Same put. Two jobs. Today is rebalance day for RupeeCase Nifty 10. Last reshuffle delivered 33 basis points alpha on day one. Track it live on rupeecase.com. The wing the chain priced Friday is about to pay. The floor is the trade. The hedge does the work. Have a hedged Monday guys. ## Key takeaways - EP35 graded 2 of 5 Friday, wing held by 252, pin breached by 24, banks broke long carry - Iran tail returned noon Friday, Brent cracked 104 Sunday night, GIFT down 179 Monday open - Brent 104.65 plus 3.31 percent over the weekend from 101.29 Friday settle - WTI 99.07 plus 3.82 percent, Strait of Hormuz priced fresh weekend escalation - GIFT Nifty 24,060.50 minus 179, gap-down 0.74 vs Friday cash close 24,176.15 - S&P 7398.93 ATH, Nasdaq 26,247.08 ATH, Dow Futures Mon AM 49,456 minus 152 - Asia split, KOSPI plus 4.55, Nikkei minus 0.29, Jakarta minus 2.94 oil importer pain - India 10Y 6.96, US 10Y 4.39, Dollar Index 98.05, USD/INR 94.47 held below 95 - 24,200 magnet, 61,11,545 contracts in one session, largest single-strike write of S2 - 24,500 wall 98,81,690 OI, 25,500 ceiling 1,16,23,430 added 43,03,000 in one session - 24,000 floor 72,44,250 puts, 23,500 deep 81,92,600, 23,000 ultra-deep 73,20,950 added 6,86,335 - ATM 24,200 straddle 291.30, times 1.25 wing factor, 364 points each side - Mon-Tue 4-day range chain priced 23,812 to 24,540, GIFT 24,060 opens 248 above floor - Buy zone 23,950 to 24,050, hedge 12-May 23,800 PE, wing is floor floor is hedge - India VIX 16.84 close, intraday high 17.43, Monday prints higher first, long gamma rule - Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17, not before - Three branches first hour, Base 50 magnet test, Escalation 35 floor break, De-esc 15 Brent below 100 - Triggers active, Brent above 105 escalation, below 100 de-esc, BN basis positive FII unwound - Calibration, 3 sessions levels-tight under 1 ATR, EP33 30, EP34 44, EP35 24, trade the band - Education, same put two jobs, 23,800 PE Friday insurance becomes Monday hedge under longs ## Quotes > I should have been celebrating the wing. I was not. > > Cold open. EP35 wing paid but Iran tail returned at noon Friday and cracked the weekend setup. > The chain built three floors. Then it built the deepest one biggest. > > Chain read on 23000 ultra-deep floor adding 686335 contracts vs 23500 / 24000. > The wing started to pay before cash opened. > > Wing math. GIFT 24060 already 248 pts above the 23812 wing floor on the gap-down. > When the wing pays, the hedge graduates to the buy. > > Education segment. Same 12-May 23800 PE that was Friday insurance is Monday's hedge under fresh longs. > Long gamma day rule. When vol is going up and spot is moving fast, you buy options. You do not sell them. > > POV segment. Stand down on premium selling until VIX cracks back below 17. > Bands always hold. Points never do. > > Calibration close. Three sessions of direction-right / levels-tight under one ATR. EP36 trades the band. ## Transcript a very good morning guys i called a range on friday the wide wing held by 250 points the tight pin breached by 24 points and banks broke the long carry first i should have been celebrating the wing i was not because the iran tail came back at noon on friday by sunday night Brent cracked at $104 by Monday open. Gift is down by 179 points. The wing, the chain priced Friday, is about to pay this morning. This is the Tanmay Edge, India's pre -market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtaguti. Season 2, episode 36. Let's go. Three numbers run this morning. 65 on international print up. 31 % over the weekend from 101 that settled on Friday. 07. The state of Hormuz priced a fresh weekend escalation. The fragile ceasefire that held Saturday cracked overnight in the tape, if not on the wires. Gift Nifty is trading around 24,060, down 179 points. 74 % against Friday's cash close of 24,176. We opened near the 24,000 floor on the first tick. US closed records on Friday high. So S &P closed at an all -time high of 7398. NASDAQ was trading at 26,247 at an all -time high on Friday. Both built on April jobs. By Monday morning, Dow futures is down by 150 points. The US has already started giving back the gains. Two desks read the same Iran tale differently. Friday, the gap was 175 basis points in one session. The morning, the gap is closing. Asia is also split now. 55, catching up. 29%. Hang Seng down... 47%. 5%. 94 % because oil importers got punished. 6%. The split tells you the world is not at all bearish. The oil importers are 100 % are and India is the oil importer. 96. 39. 47. The rupee held below 95 even when the Brent was at 104. That is the only good news on the macro card this morning. Now let's read the chain and see where the balance is happening. So 24,200 was the magnet on Friday. 61 lakh contracts in one session at one strike. Largest single session right we have seen in recent times. Writers picked a magnet not a direction. They also said this is where the fight will be so 24 500 acts as a wall that is the resistance 98 lakh contracts on 24 500 and 25 500 that is thousand points out added around 43 lakh contracts in one session and the total oi stands at 1 crore 16 lakhs 1000 points apart but that is not where we are going to enter right now monday trades in between that so 24 000 is the floor or the support 72 lakh have been written over there 23 500 is the second level where the deep floor stands at 81 lakh contracts over there and 23 000 that is the ultra deep floor where around 73 lakh contracts are present 68 lakh contracts added on that on friday itself the chain built three floors then it built the deepest one of the deepest that was available writers priced 23,000 harder than 23 500 in one session that is the chain saying that 23,000 does not break either the wing math so ATM straddle of 24 200 is trading around 291 that gives us an input range of 364 points on either side which is 23 812 on the bottom end to 24 540 on the upper end gift nifty opens at 24 060 248 points above the floor but 480 points up below the ceiling the wing started to play before the cash opened So now my POV. Buy on dips continues with a hedge. The hedge costs more today. Pay it anyway. Listen carefully. The buy zone is the floor 23,950 to 24,050. We are there at the first tick if gift holds. 85 on friday monday the print goes higher this is a long gamma day long gamma rules when wall is going to go up and spot is moving fast you buy options you don't sell them selling premium today is the wrong side of the trade buying premium is the right side stand down on the premium selling until the wix comes back to 17 or in the second half you can sell some option three branches that i'm watching in the first are base case 50 probability spot around 24 050 to 24 100. test 23 950 bounces back to 24 200 fades around 24 200 broken pin floor as a resistance rents the morning premium selling later only if wix cracks below that 17 mark escalation we get escalated and spot prints 23 812 the 23 500 floor that the chain built bigger than uh 24 000 in one session becomes the life test episode 30 playbook is back wings rent week Hedge first, cash second. That is the motto. And the third option that is de -escalation. That is around 15 % probability. Brent retraces to 100 zone by noon. 3. Spot retakes 24 -200 easily. Range frames revives. Buy on dips continues and 24 -50 holds on. Banks rebid. resumes so branch triggers active for the first hour keep a watch on these three branches brent prints above 105 confirms escalation below 100 confirms de -escalation man nifty futures basis at the open a positive means if i unwound the unwind negative or wider means the long carry stays broken so chain at 11 30 tells you whether the short calls came off or stayed on yesterday and here's the lesson that you have to take Bands always hold, guys. Points never do. Three sessions in a row, direction was the right and levels were tight under one ATR. ATR is average rule range. Episode 33, wall flexed by 30 points. Episode 34, magnet held by 44 points. Episode 35, floor breached by 24 points. Three session of the chain taking in the bands and me predicting those points. This week, I trade the band. The chain calls the lead. The hedge does the work for me. for today is when the wing pays you the hedge graduates to buy the 23 800 put i called as wing protection on friday is the same option that opens as the buy this morning the chain does not reprice it as a different contract the trader has to read it as a different rule friday it was insurance monday it is hedge under fresh longs at 24 50 spot if you are buying same put does two jobs One more thing guys, today is the rebalance day for rupee case nifty 10. The portfolio rotates on Monday morning. Last reshuffle delivered 33 basis points of alpha on day 1. com. com india's first systematic investing terminal i am building also streaming on apple podcast spotify amazon music youtube please give it a thumbs up and give it a rating if you like it share it with one trader friend who needs it right now would love to read your reviews as well and today have a hedged monday thank you guys ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - May 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-05/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP35, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-08 - Next: EP37, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-12 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.