--- title: "Brent Cracked 105. Vol First. Pin Second. | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Brent cracked 105 overnight. The escalation lane fired. GIFT Nifty opened down 117. India 10Y bid 7 basis points." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-12 episode: 37 season: 2 date: 2026-05-12 duration_seconds: 551 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2815578/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_05_12_03_09_49_5ffa377c-7d41-4583-b8f6-0b6d1011b891.mp3 grade: 3/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Brent cracked 105. Vol first. Pin second. Expiry is not going to be easy The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP37, Tuesday 12 May 2026, 9:11. Brent 105.33 plus 1.07 percent overnight, escalation trigger fired clean ## Scorecard Grade 3/5 (60 percent): 2 hit, 2 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 13 May 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Daily - HIT: . Brent above 100 at India close - HIT: . Pro net calls stayed short (-1,84,489) - HIT: . 23,500 cap weak- - HIT: (OR-clause structural support held intraday). RC Day-1 alpha PEND no portfolio dashboard refresh. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: two trades in one expiry day (about 0:00, estimated) Brent cracked 105 overnight. The escalation lane has fired. GIFT Nifty is down 117 points. India 10-year bond yield is 7 basis points up. The chain wrote the pin at 23,800 yesterday. Then Brent priced something else. Two trades in one expiry day. Wall first. IV first. Pin second. Expiry is not going to be easy today. This is The Tanmay Edge. EP37. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. ### 2. Three numbers run this open (about 0:39, estimated) Brent 105.33 on international print, up 1.07 percent overnight. The escalation trigger fired clean. WTI also up 1.2 and trading just below the 100 dollar mark. Both pricing fresh Iran tail risk after Trump rejected the peace response Monday. GIFT Nifty 23,670, down almost 120 points. Gap down 0.5 against Monday close 23,815. We open inside the wing floor. The chain priced 23,550 to 24,070 last night. 23,670 is 100 points inside the band. US already cracked records and held. Dow futures flat. S&P up 13. Nasdaq up 27. Above all-time highs by a hair but flat overnight. US is shrugging at oil. India is the importer. That is where it hurts. ### 3. Asia split + yields + rupee at record low (about 1:45, estimated) Asia split. Nikkei plus 0.42. Hang Seng plus 0.33. Taiwan flat. KOSPI minus 1.5. Jakarta minus 0.47. Oil importers got punished. India sits with them. India 10-year bond yield 7.03 up 7 basis points overnight from 6.96. US 10-year up to 4.43 modestly. Dollar Index 98.12. USD/INR 95.31, record low set Monday stays in place. Sub-95 stays broken. This is a tape that says risk-off in pockets and pin-pull in others. The oil pricing wins this morning. ### 4. Pro flipped: the Wall is an instruction (about 2:31, estimated) Yesterday Pro flipped net calls from 58,000 long Friday to 30,000 short Monday. 89,000 contracts moved in one direction. Biggest single-day participation we have seen in recent times. Pro is the desk. Pros is the proprietary traders of members. Pro reads order flow before anything else. When Pro flips like this, the wall at 24,000 is not a forecast. It is an instruction. FII added 48,000 short calls on top of that. FII bought 26,000 more puts. FII sold 8438 crores. Biggest single day in 20 sessions. Cumulative FII sell crossed minus 50,000 crores. DII absorbed around 5940 crores. Did not fill the hole. Client did the opposite. Extended the long. Added 1,38,000 calls. Wrote 26,000 puts. Crowd at maximum optimism while Pros have already flipped. The historical pattern says next two-three sessions favor Pros. ### 5. Chain map: 24,000 Wall, 23,800 pin, 23,500 floor (about 3:54, estimated) 24,000 is the wall. 1 crore 23 lakh call OI on Monday close. Almost 1 crore added in one single session. Friday OI was 21 lakhs. Monday close was 1.23 crores. Wall multiplied 6x in one session. Biggest single-strike write of the week. 23,800 is the pin. Combined call plus put OI 9.51 million. Highest of any strike. Deepest negative gamma cluster of the chain. This is where the chain wants spot at 15:30. 23,500 is the deep floor. Put OI 1 crore. Added 21 lakhs Monday. The fence the chain wrote bigger than 23,800 in one session. ATR-2 buy zone if the morning escalation extends. ### 6. Wing math + two halves of expiry (about 4:54, estimated) ATM 23,800 straddle 205. Call 132 plus put 73. Wing 260 each side. Expiry range 23,550 to 24,070. GIFT 23,670 opens 111 points above wing floor. 400 points below the 24,000 ceiling. We start inside the band. First half. Brent 105 plus gap-down plus yields bid means IV expansion. VIX 18.51 Monday close. Tuesday morning prints higher first. Premium sellers cannot work this leg. 23,700 PE catches a bid if spot tests 23,600. Long gamma trade kicks in. Second half. The pin. Gravity wins. 23,800 has the highest OI on the chain. Theta accelerates after noon. Magnet pulls. Pro defends 24,000 wall and 23,500 floor they created. Premium sellers come back in if VIX cools below 18. Two halves of the expiry. One expiry today. ### 7. Sector tape + the rotation read (about 6:08, estimated) Pharma held in green. CNX Pharma Strong Buy. Healthcare Strong Buy. Defensives caught the bid. Cyclicals broke. Finance broke down completely. CNX Finance Strong Sell. The long carry leg from Bank Nifty is gone. Banks lead the down move on Iran-tail days. Infra broke. Energy broke. Metals broke. CNX200 CNX500 broad market selling off. FMCG flipped to Buy. The defensive rotation is complete. The read. Sell rallies in cyclicals into the 24,000 wall. Pin trade in the second half plays the rotation. Defensives sit. Cyclicals speed. The wall is the cap on the rip. ### 8. POV + education: same put two jobs continues (about 7:06, estimated) Buy the 23,700 put. Yesterday 23,800 put roll it down to 23,700. If spot tests 23,650 in the first hour. Hold the wing trade until VIX peaks out. Then flip. Sell the 23,700 put plus the 23,900 call. Strangle around 12:30 PM if spot recovers to 23,800. Cover before 3 PM. Do not hold strangle into the last 30 to 45 minutes. Lesson. Expiry day is two markets. Not one. Morning market sells volatility wrong. The first half belongs to gamma. Brent above 105 means dealer hedging is unbalanced. IV expands fast. Premium sellers get crushed in the first 90 minutes. Be long gamma. Buy puts on dip. Pay the IV. Afternoon market is the inverse. Theta accelerates. Pin gravity wins. Chain has voted 23,750 to 23,800. Pro defending 24,000. Be short gamma after lunch. Sell the strangle. Collect theta decay. Pin pays. When you know which market you are in, you know which trade pays. Yesterday RupeeCase Nifty 10 rebalanced. Dropped SBIN. SBIN closed minus 4.52 percent Monday. Drop saved 0.45 percent portfolio drag. Day-0 alpha printed plus 0.51. Defensive cohort cushioned the down. Track live on rupeecase.com. Brent decides the first half. Pin decides the second. The chain has already voted. Have a hedged expiry guys. ## Key takeaways - Brent 105.33 plus 1.07 percent overnight, escalation trigger fired clean - WTI just below 100 plus 1.2 percent, Trump rejected peace response Monday - GIFT Nifty 23,670 minus 120 vs Mon close 23,815, gap-down 0.5 percent - Chain priced 23,550 to 24,070 wing, GIFT opens 100 pts inside band - US Dow flat, S&P plus 13, Nasdaq plus 27, both ATH plus by a hair - Asia split, Nikkei plus 0.42, KOSPI minus 1.5, Jakarta minus 0.47 oil importer pain - India 10Y 7.03 up 7 bps from 6.96, US 10Y 4.43, DXY 98.12, USD/INR 95.31 record low - Pro flipped net calls 58,737 long Fri to 30,428 short Mon, 89,000 contract rotation S2 biggest - FII added 48,000 short calls, bought 26,000 long puts, sold 8438 Cr cash biggest 20 sessions - Cumulative FII sell crossed minus 50,000 Cr, DII absorbed plus 5940 Cr - Client extended long, added 1,38,000 calls, wrote 26,000 puts, max optimism vs Pro flip - 24,000 wall 1,23,45,000 CE OI, 1,00,00,000 added in one session, Friday was 21,00,000 only - 23,800 pin 95,10,000 combined CE plus PE OI, highest of chain, deepest negative gamma - 23,500 deep floor 1,00,00,000 PE OI, 21,00,000 added Mon, chain wrote bigger than 23,800 - ATM 23,800 straddle 205, CE 132 plus PE 73, wing 260 each side, range 23,550 to 24,070 - VIX 18.51 Mon close, first half IV expands, premium sellers crushed first 90 minutes - Sector rotation, Pharma Strong Buy, Healthcare Strong Buy, FMCG flipped Buy, Finance Strong Sell - Two halves expiry, first half long gamma buy puts on dip, second half short gamma sell strangle - POV, buy 23,700 PE, flip to 23,700 PE plus 23,900 CE strangle 12:30, cover before 3 PM - RC Nifty 10 dropped SBIN Mon, SBIN minus 4.52, drag saved 0.45 pct, Day-0 alpha plus 0.51 ## Quotes > Wall first. IV first. Pin second. Expiry is not going to be easy today. > > Cold open. EP37 frames expiry day as two markets sequentially. > When Pro flips like this, the wall at 24,000 is not a forecast. It is an instruction. > > Pro flip segment. 89000 contract rotation from net long to net short calls in one session. > The wall multiplied 6x in one session. The biggest single-strike write of the week. > > Chain map. 24000 CE OI moved 21 lakhs Friday to 1.23 crore Monday close. > Every expiry day is two markets. Not one. > > Education segment. First half belongs to gamma, second half belongs to theta. > When you know which market you are in, you know which trade pays. > > Education resolution. Same chain reads two different ways across the 6h 15min session. > Yesterday's 23,800 put roll it down to 23,700. > > POV roll-trade detail. EP36 hedge becomes EP37 wing trade. Same put two jobs continues. > The chain has already voted. > > Sign-off. Brent decides first half, pin decides second, chain bias is in the OI map. ## Transcript A very good morning guys. Brent cracked 105 overnight. The escalation lane has fired. GIFT Nifty is down 117 points. India's 10-year bond yield is 7 basis points up. The chain wrote the pin at 23,800 yesterday. Then Brent priced something else. Two trades in one expiry day. Wall first. IV first. Pin second. Expiry is not going to be easy today. This is The Tanmay Edge. India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2, episode 37. Let's go. Three numbers run this open. 07 percent overnight. The escalation trigger fired clean. 2 and is trading just below the 100 dollar mark. Both pricing fresh Iran tail risk after Trump rejected the peace response on Monday. GIFT Nifty is down almost 120 points trading around 23,670. 5 against Monday's close of 23,815. We open inside the wing floor. The chain priced 23,550 on the downside to 24,070 on the upside last night. 23,670 is 100 points inside the band. US already cracked the records and held. Dow futures is flat. S&P was up by 13 points. Nasdaq was up by 27 points. Above all-time highs by a hair but flat overnight. US is shrugging at oil. India is the importer. And that is where it hurts us. Asia is split this morning. 42 percent. 33 percent. Taiwan flat. 5 percent. 47 percent. The oil importers got punished. India is getting punished and India sits with them. Yields are up on India as well. 96. 43 modestly. 31 stays at record low set on Monday. Sub-95 stays broken on USD INR. This is a tape that says risk-off in pockets and pin-pull in others. The oil pricing wins this morning. Now read what happens in the chain. Yesterday Pro flipped net calls from 58,000 long on Friday to 30,000 short on Monday. That's 89,000 contracts moved in one direction. The biggest single-day participation we have seen in recent times. Pro is the desk. Pros is the proprietary traders of members. Pro reads order flow before anything else. When Pro flips like this, the wall at 24,000 is not a forecast. It is an instruction. FII added another 48,000 short calls on top of that. FII bought 26,000 more puts. FII sold 8438 crores. Biggest single day in 20 sessions we have seen. The cumulative FII sell crossed minus 50,000 crores. The round number broke again in the month of May. DIIs absorbed yesterday around 5940 crores. Did not fill the hole but they absorbed a lot. Client did the opposite. Clients extended the long. Added 1,38,000 calls. Wrote 26,000 more puts. The crowd at maximum optimism while Pros have already flipped. The historical pattern. When Pros flip and Clients extend opposite in one direction, the next two-three sessions favors Pros. Every expiry day in session one we have seen this pattern. Pro is short calls. Pro is long futures. Pro reduced put hedge. That position only pays if 24,000 is capping for the day. Watch where Pro defends the wall. Now the chain map. 24,000 is the wall or the resistance. 1 crore 23 lakh call OI on Monday close. Almost 1 crore added in one single session. Friday's OI was 21 lakhs. 23 crores. The wall multiplied by 6x in one session. The biggest single-strike write of the week. 23,800 that's the pin. 51 million. Highest of any strike. The deepest negative gamma cluster that we have seen. This is where the chain wants spot at 15:30. That is the expiry. Remember that. 23,500 is the deep floor. Put OI at 1 crore. Added around 21 lakhs on Monday. The fence the chain wrote bigger than 23,800 in one session. So ATR-2 buy zone if the morning escalation that we are seeing extends. And the wing math. The straddle is trading around 205. Call is trading at 132. Put is trading at 73. That is at 23,800. Gives us a straddle price of 205 and an expiry range of around 260 points on each side. So the expiry range becomes 23,550 on the bottom side to 24,070 on the upside. GIFT Nifty opens around 23,670. 111 points above the wing floor. 400 points below the ceiling that is 24,000. We start inside the band. The two halves that I am seeing today on expiry. The first half. Brent at 105 plus GIFT Nifty gap down open plus yields bidding up means IV expansion. 51 on Monday. Tuesday morning prints higher first. Premium sellers cannot work this leg. The 23,700 put catches a bid if spot tests 23,600. Long gamma trade kicks in. Second half. The pin. The gravity wins. 23,800 has the highest OI on the chain. The theta accelerates after noon. The magnet pulls. Pro defends the 24,000 wall as well as 23,500 floor that they have created. Premium sellers come back in if the VIX cools below 18. So two halves of the expiry and one expiry that we are seeing today. And the sector tape from Monday confirms the rotation as well. Pharma held in green. So CNX Pharma is a Strong Buy. Healthcare is a Strong Buy. Defensives caught the bid and cyclicals broke. Finance broke down completely. CNX Finance is a Strong Sell. The long carry leg from Bank Nifty is gone. Banks lead the down move on Iran-tail days. Infra broke. Energy broke. Metals broke. So CNX200, CNX500, broad market is also selling off. FMCG flipped to Buy. The defensive rotation is completed. The read. Sell rallies in cyclicals into the 24,000 wall. The pin trade in the second half plays the rotation. Defensives sit. Cyclicals speed. The wall is the cap the rip. Here is the lesson guys. Expiry day is two markets. Not one. The morning market sells volatility wrong. The first half belongs to gamma. Brent above 105 clearly means dealer hedging is unbalanced. Spot prints into a tail. IV expands fast. Premium sellers get crushed in the first 90 minutes. The trade is to be long gamma. Buy puts on dip. Pay the IV. The afternoon market is the inverse of what we see in the morning. Theta accelerates. Pin gravity wins. The chain has voted 23,750 to 23,800. Pro is defending 24,000. The trade after lunch is to be short gamma. Sell the strangle. Collect the theta decay. Pin pays off. When you know which market you are in, you know which trade pays. Today is going to be hard because both markets show up in the next 375 minutes. My POV. Buy the 23,700 put. Yesterday's 23,800 put roll it down to 23,700. If spot tests 23,650 in the first hour. Hold the wing trade until VIX peaks out. Then flip. Sell the 23,700 put plus the 23,900 call. That creates a strangle around 12:30 PM. If spot recovers to 23,800. Cover it before 3 PM. Do not hold strangle into the last 30 to 45 minutes. One more thing guys. Yesterday was rebalance day for RupeeCase. The portfolio dropped SBIN. 52 percent on Monday. 45 percent portfolio drag. 51 percent positive. Defensive cohort cushioned the down. com. Every expiry day is two markets. Brent decides the first half. Pin decides the second. The chain has already voted. com, India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building. Also streaming on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, and YouTube as well. Please give it a thumbs up and give it a rating. Would love to read your reviews as well. And if this helped you guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. See you all once again tomorrow. Have a hedged expiry guys and a happy expiry to you as well. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - May 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-05/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP36, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-11 - Next: EP38, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-13 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.