--- title: "Nifty Expiry Day. The Buyers Came Back | The Tanmay Edge" description: "On Friday foreigners sold us a billion dollars worth. On Monday morning the Sensex was 1,135 points underwater by 10 AM." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-19 episode: 42 season: 2 date: 2026-05-19 duration_seconds: 434 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2837774/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_05_19_02_57_40_6825c41f-4c0f-4283-b5e2-b086144a471f.mp3 grade: 4/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Nifty expiry day. The buyers came back The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP42, Tuesday 19 May 2026, 7:14. Nifty Monday close 23,649 plus 6 points flat from Friday but a 332 point intraday range ## Scorecard Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 20 May 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Weekly Expiry - MISS: . P1 close inside 23,440 to 23,850 corridor - HIT: close 23,618. P2 close above 23,400 floor - HIT: (218 above). P3 high below 24,000 ceiling - HIT: (H 23,782 218 below). P4 close inside 23,650 to 23,750 magnet - MISS: by 32 pts low (23,618). P5 VIX above 18 - HIT: 18.68. Best grade since EP40. Direction right levels tight pattern narrowing 32 pts vs EP40 386 pts. Magnet split USD INR 96.50 break plus KOSPI minus 3.36 pulled tape to day VWAP 23,618 not chain magnet 23,700. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: the buyers are sitting in the chair (about 0:00, estimated) On Friday foreigners sold us a billion dollars worth. On Monday morning the Sensex was 1135 points underwater by 10 AM. And then the same foreigners came back and bought us 2813 crore in cash. The Nifty climbed all the way back to 23,649. Today is Nifty weekly expiry. The buyers are sitting in the chair. This is The Tanmay Edge. ### 2. The scene: a V inside a flat number (about 0:26, estimated) Here is the picture you are walking into on Tuesday morning. The Nifty closed Monday at 23,649. Six points above where it closed Friday. Flat. But hidden inside that flat number is one of the wildest sessions of the year. The Sensex opened at 74,807. By 10:05 in the morning it was 1135 points lower. Brent crude was 111 dollars. The rupee touched 96.40, the first ever print above 96 to one US dollar. Bitcoin lost 80,000 dollars for the first time this month. Three macro warning lights on at the same time. And then nothing got any worse. The Sensex climbed every single point of those 1135 back. The Nifty went from a low of 23,317 to a close of 23,649. A 332 point range. A 6 point change. The shape of the day is a V. ### 3. Why the buyers came: the foreigners flipped (about 1:23, estimated) Why did the buyers come in? Because the foreigners flipped. For weeks, foreign institutional desks were the heaviest seller in the market. Year to date they have sold roughly 52,753 crore. On Monday they bought 2813 crore in cash. The domestic institutions added another 2682 crore. Combined, 5495 crore of buying. Landing exactly when the index was at its low. That is what powered the V. ### 4. The trade structure: the biggest desk paid twice (about 1:53, estimated) The biggest desk in the market, what NSE calls the proprietary trader, bought both sides on Friday. 1,17,000 calls and 1,13,000 puts at the same time. They paid for movement, not direction. On Monday they got their movement. The 332 point range delivered. And then they did it again. On Monday close, the same desk added 2,26,000 calls and 1,48,000 puts. Same structure. This time leaning a little more bullish on the call side. So the biggest desk has paid twice for the same idea. The market is going to move, and now they are tilting toward the upside. Foreigners are still hedging with put protection. Retail clients are positioned bullish, both in futures and in short puts. Today is expiry. Today the chain decides whose bet wins. ### 5. What the chain says: support migrated down (about 2:51, estimated) The biggest call position in the chain is at 24,000. 12.62 million contracts. That is the ceiling. The market cannot reach 24,000 today. That is mathematically too far. Above 23,800 the air gets thin. On the support side, here is what shifted. Last week the heaviest put support was at 23,700. On Monday the put writers at 23,700 unwound 2.07 million contracts. They walked away from that level. And they re stacked their support lower. The biggest put support today is at 23,400. 11.91 million contracts, up 6.71 million in one day. The second heaviest is 23,500. The support migrated down. The 23,700 level that pulled the V recovery Monday is weaker today than it was last week. Expected range 23,444 to 23,856. That comes from the option premium at 23,650. Call 104 plus put 101 equals 206. Add or subtract that from where we are and you have today's runway. ### 6. What changed overnight: one light went dim (about 3:59, estimated) What changed overnight changes the bias. Brent crude dropped 2 percent in the international session. It is now 109.81 dollars. One of those three warning lights from Monday morning has gone dim. The rupee closed at 96.35. Still above 96. But the Reserve Bank defended once and will defend again. The American markets closed mixed. No panic. Europe was strong, DAX up nearly 1.5 percent. Asia this morning is split. Japan slightly down. Hong Kong slightly up. But Korea, the KOSPI, is down 5.24 percent. That is a separate Korean story. Watch if it spreads. GIFT Nifty at 7:45 this morning was up 23 points. A tiny gap up. Almost flat. ### 7. The plan: two trades, one expiry (about 4:48, estimated) Here is how I am playing today. Two trades inside one expiry day. First half, buy on dips. If the Nifty drops toward 23,500 in the morning, that is the buy. The chain is telling us the buyers stand there. The biggest desk paid for movement, so if there is going to be a dip, expect it early. Long options work here. Or just long cash. If instead we open and quickly trade up to 23,750, switch sides. Sell premium. Do not chase a breakout. The chain wants the magnet, not a fresh high. Second half, the afternoon comes back to the centre. Whatever the morning prints, the afternoon fades. By the close, the option market wants to settle between 23,650 and 23,750. That is the magnet zone. Sell stretched moves both sides as the day winds down. Your protection is at 23,400. If overnight Brent flips back above 112 or the rupee opens past 96.50, the 23,400 put is what protects the cash. Otherwise you do not need it. About 31 rupees on Monday close. 1500 rupees per lot of 65. Less than a coffee. Net plan, buy options in the morning, sell options in the afternoon. One day. Two trades. The same expiry. ### 8. Tanmay's read: nvidia tomorrow, defensives held Monday (about 6:15, estimated) One more thing to watch. Tomorrow night, Wednesday US time, Nvidia reports earnings. That is the biggest single stock event globally this week. The American chip story has been the tail wagging Indian IT. Tech Mahindra and Infosys led the rebound at home Monday. If Nvidia surprises Wednesday night, IT in India will move on Thursday morning. Plan for that. Sector tape Monday. IT up 2.43 percent. Pharma quiet but bright at the top, with Gland Pharma up 15 percent. Bharti Airtel strong. Down side, Auto, PSU Bank, Metal, Power, Media. The defensives outperformed. That is the market's flight to safety on a wild day. On RupeeCase, the Nifty Momentum 10 strategy held steady through Monday's V. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. Next rebalance mid June. ## Key takeaways - Nifty Monday close 23,649 plus 6 points flat from Friday but a 332 point intraday range - Sensex opened 74,807 dropped 1135 points by 10:05 AM then climbed every point back - Nifty intraday low 23,317 V recovery into 23,649 close - Brent crude 111 dollars Monday morning eased to 109.81 overnight one warning light dimmed - Rupee touched 96.40 Monday first ever print above 96 to one US dollar closed 96.35 - Bitcoin lost 80,000 dollars Monday first time this month - FII cash plus 2813 crore Monday first net buy after a long selling streak - DII cash plus 2682 crore combined 5495 crore landed at the 23,317 low - FII year to date sellers roughly 52,753 crore exceeds full year 2025 - Pro added 2,26,000 calls plus 1,48,000 puts Monday close same long volatility structure as Friday with a bullish tilt - Friday Pro bought 1,17,484 calls and 1,13,445 puts in one session paid for movement not direction - Biggest call position 24,000 with 12.62 million contracts the ceiling too far to touch today - Biggest put support 23,400 with 11.91 million contracts up 6.71 million in one day - Put writers at 23,700 unwound 2.07 million contracts and re stacked support 200 points lower - Expected range today 23,444 to 23,856 from the 23,650 straddle priced at 206 - Magnet zone at close 23,650 to 23,750 - 23,400 put 31 rupees Monday close 1500 rupees per lot of 65 for cash protection - GIFT Nifty 7:45 AM IST plus 23 points a tiny gap up - KOSPI minus 5.24 percent Asia wild card watch if it spreads DAX plus 1.5 percent Europe firm - Sector tape Monday IT plus 2.43 percent Gland Pharma plus 15 Auto PSU Bank Metal Power Media down ## Quotes > On Friday foreigners sold us a billion dollars worth. On Monday they bought us 2813 crore in cash. The buyers are sitting in the chair. > > Cold open. Frames Tuesday expiry as the day after a violent V where the same desks that sold last week became buyers at the intraday low. > Hidden inside that flat number is one of the wildest sessions of the year. > > Opens the scene. Nifty closed 6 points higher Monday, but the day was a 332 point range with a Sensex 1135 point round trip. > 5495 crore of buying. Landing exactly when the index was at its low. That is what powered the V. > > FII 2813 crore plus DII 2682 crore arrived at the Nifty 23317 intraday low. Explains the V shape recovery. > The biggest desk has paid twice for the same idea. The market is going to move, and now they are tilting toward the upside. > > Pro added 117000 calls plus 113000 puts Friday and 226000 calls plus 148000 puts Monday close. Same long volatility structure with a bullish lean. > The 23,700 level that pulled the V recovery Monday is weaker today than it was last week. > > Put writers at 23700 unwound 2.07 million contracts and re stacked support 200 points lower at 23400. Today the support is migrated. > Buy options in the morning, sell options in the afternoon. One day. Two trades. The same expiry. > > The plan in one line. First half long the move on a dip to 23500. Second half fade the stretch as the close pulls to 23650 to 23750. > The buyers came back on Monday. Today they have to settle the bill. > > CTA close. Tuesday expiry is where the V recovery either gets confirmed by a settle near 23700 or unwound by a fresh test of 23400. ## Transcript Very good morning guys. On Friday, foreigners sold us billions of dollars worth. On Monday morning the Sensex was 1,100 points underwater by 10 AM. And then the same foreigners came back and bought us 2,813 crore of cash. The Nifty climbed all the way back to 23,650. Today is Nifty's weekly expiry. The buyers are sitting in the chair. So today is 19th May, Nifty's expiry. This is Tanmay's Edge, episode 42. Let's go. So here's the picture you are walking into on Tuesday morning. The Nifty closed Monday at 23,649. Six points above where it closed on Friday. Flat. But hidden inside that flat number is one of the wildest sessions of the season we have seen. The Sensex opened at 74,807. By 10:05 in the morning, it was 1,135 points lower. Brent crude was 111 dollars. 40, the first ever print above 96. Bitcoin lost below 80,000 dollars for the first time this month. Three macro warning lights on at the same time. And then nothing got any worse. The Sensex climbed every single point of those 1,135 back. The Nifty went from a low of 23,317 to a close of 23,650. A 332-point range. A 6-point change. The shape of the day was a V-shaped recovery that we saw yesterday. Why did the buyers come in? Because the foreigners flipped. For weeks, foreign institutional desks were the heaviest seller in the market. Year-to-date, they have sold roughly 52,000 crore. On Monday they bought 2,813 crore in cash. The domestic institutions added another 2,682 crore. Combined, almost 5,500 crore of buying, landing exactly when the index was at its low. That is what powered the V-shape recovery. And here's what makes today's expiry interesting. The biggest desk in the market, what NSE calls the proprietary trader, bought both sides on Friday. 1,17,000 calls and 1,13,000 puts at the same time. They paid for movement, not direction. On Monday they got their movement. The 330-point range delivered. And then they did it again. On Monday's close, the same desk added 2,26,000 calls and 1,48,000 puts. Same structure, this time leaning a little more on the call side. So the biggest desk has paid twice for the same idea. The market is going to move, and now they are tilting toward the upside. Foreigners are still hedging with put protection. Retail clients are positioned extremely bullish, both in futures as well as short puts. Today is Nifty's expiry. Today the chain decides who bets and who wins. Let me read the chain as well. 26 crore contracts. That is the ceiling. The market cannot reach 24,000 today. That is mathematically too far. Above 23,800 the air gets thinner. On the support side, here is what shifted. Last week the heaviest support was at 23,700. On Monday the put writers at 23,700 unwound roughly 20 lakh contracts. They walked away from that level and they re-stacked their support lower. 71 million in one day. The second heaviest is 23,500. The support is now migrated down. The 23,700 level that pulled the V-shape recovery on Monday is weaker today than it was last week. The expected range is 23,440 to 23,850. That comes from the option premium of 23,650 call and put, total of 206. Where the straddle is trading. Add or subtract that one standard deviation and you will get the reach. So what changed overnight changes the bias. Brent crude dropped 2 percent in the international session. 81 dollars. One of those three warning lights from Monday morning has gone dim. 35, still above that 96 mark. But the Reserve Bank defended once and will defend again. The American markets are closed, no panic. 5 percent. And Asia this morning is split. Japan slightly down. Hong Kong slightly up. 24 percent. That is a separate Korean story, watch if it spreads out. GIFT Nifty today is trading up by 23 points. A tiny gap up. Almost flat. Here is how I am going to play today. Two trades inside one expiry day. First half, buy on dips. If Nifty drops towards 23,500 in the morning, that is a buy. The chain is telling us the buyers stand there. The biggest desk paid for the movement, so if there is going to be a dip, expect it early. Long options work here, or just long cash. If instead we open and quickly trade up to 23,750, switch sides. Sell premium. Do not chase a breakout. The chain wants the magnet, not a fresh high. Second half, the afternoon comes back to the centre. Whatever the morning prints, the afternoon fades. By the close, the option market wants to settle between 23,650 to 23,750. That is the magnet zone. Sell stretched moves both sides as the day winds down. Your protection is 23,400 for the put. 50, the 23,400 put is what protects the cash today. Otherwise you do not need it. Net plan, buy options in the morning, sell options in the afternoon. One day. Two trades. The same expiry. One more thing to watch guys. Tomorrow night, Wednesday US time, Nvidia reports the earnings. This is the biggest single-stock event globally this week. The American chip story has been the tail wagging Indian IT. Tech Mahindra Infosys led the rebound at home on Monday. If Nvidia surprises tomorrow, IT in India will move on Thursday morning. Plan for that as well. Now the sectoral tape. 43 percent yesterday. Pharma quiet but bright at the top. Bharti Airtel strong. So Auto, PSU Banks, Metal, Power, Media, the defensives have outperformed. That is the market's flight to safety on a wild day. On RupeeCase Nifty, the Momentum 10 strategy held steady through Monday's V-shaped recovery. com. Next rebalance is in middle of June. That is The Tanmay Edge for Tuesday guys, 19th May. The buyers came back on Monday. Today they have to settle the bill. Two trades, one expiry, one magnet at 23,700. If this helped you guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. That is where the strategies live too. Apple Podcast or Spotify carry the audio session. I will see you all tomorrow, same time, same chair. Until then, trade light, trade with a plan, and protect your wing. Have a happy expiry guys. This is Tanmay, and you are listening to The Tanmay Edge. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - May 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-05/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP41, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-18 - Next: EP43, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-20 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.