--- title: "Bond Yields Rally. One Day To Sensex | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Global bond yields are climbing across every major curve overnight | US 10Y at 4.67% near a one-year high, UK 10Y jumped over 1% in a session to 5.13%." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-20 episode: 43 season: 2 date: 2026-05-20 duration_seconds: 520 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2841962/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_05_20_02_54_44_44628934-0cd9-4803-8759-ed4139a1f462.mp3 grade: 4/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Bond yields rally. One day to Sensex expiry The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP43, Wednesday 20 May 2026, 8:40. Nifty 23,618 down 31 points Tuesday close inside the 23,500 floor and 23,700 ceiling band ## Scorecard Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 21 May 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Daily - HIT: plus 1 TBD (likely - HIT: ). P1 Sensex close 75,318 inside 74,600 to 75,800 corridor - HIT: . P2 spot pierced 75,200 gamma flip both ways - HIT: (Low 74,529 671 pts below, recovered to close 75,318 118 pts above, intraday range 876 vs implied straddle 870 long vol bet paid by 6 pts). P3 Nifty close 23,659 inside 23,500 floor 23,700 ceiling - HIT: (41 pts off ceiling). P4 VIX 18.31 above 18 - HIT: . P5 23,700 PE OI 3.69M plus build TBD pending Nifty 26 May chain. Best grade since EP40. Direction right levels tight pattern 6 sessions running. Pro flipped bullish: short 21,902 calls Tue to long 1,33,782 calls Wed swing 1,55,684 contracts. Call wall migrated 75,500 to 76,000. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: bond yields rally across every curve (about 0:00, estimated) Yesterday the foreigners sold again. The rupee stayed above 96. And tonight government bond yields are paying more all over the world. London. Berlin. Tokyo. New York. Yields climbing on every curve I am seeing. Tomorrow Sensex closes its weekly book. Today is the day before that. One day to settle the bet. This is The Tanmay Edge. ### 2. Segment 1: global and commodities (about 0:28, estimated) Start with what is loud overnight. Bond yields. The American 10 year is at 4.67 percent, parked at a 1 year high. UK 10 year jumped over 1 percent in one session to 5.13. Germany 3.19 climbed almost 1 percent. Italy 3.98. Brazil 14.51. Even Japan, the cheapest money in the world, at 2.79. When bonds pay more, equities pay relatively less. The math is simple. Foreign desks have a cheaper place to park money than emerging markets. That is the slow leak you have been watching for 3 weeks. GIFT Nifty 23,445 down 120. Nikkei minus 1.18. Hang Seng minus 0.54. KOSPI minus 0.78, now down 9.5 percent across 3 sessions. Jakarta plunged 3.59. Wall Street ended Tuesday weaker. Nasdaq minus 0.87, S and P minus 0.67. Everyone is sitting on their hands until Nvidia opens its earnings book tonight US time. That is Thursday's mover for Indian IT. Brent 110.51 slipping two thirds of a percent. WTI 103.36. Gold flat at 4485 dollars per ounce. Indian rupee closed 96.52, intraday high 96.62, central bank stepped in. Dollar index 99.36. ### 3. Segment 2: cash and derivatives (about 1:53, estimated) Monday FII flipped to buyer with 2813 crore. Tuesday they sold again, 2457 crore back out the door. The flip lasted 1 day. The buyer didn't stay. Cumulative still minus 54,151 crore for the year. But domestic desks did something interesting. DII came in with 3802 crore Tuesday. So when FII sold, DII bought the dip cleanly. Combined cash flow positive by 1344 crore. 2 desks. Different views. Nifty barely moved. Closed 23,618 down 31 points. The professional desk did something I want to flag. Monday they were long both calls and puts at the same time. A textbook bet on movement, no direction. Tuesday at expiry settle they booked the call leg. 2.48 lakh net long calls came off the table. They kept the puts. Added 16,000 contracts more. Held the long futures stack at 31,000 contracts. Long futures plus long puts is the same shape as a long call. The put pays for downside protection on the futures bet. Net delta near zero. Payout convex either way. The professional desk is paying for movement again, no side picked. Foreigners on the derivative side stayed bearish. Net short futures stack widened to 2.16 lakh contracts. Long puts 4.27 lakh. Short calls 2.05 lakh. Three way bearish stack. The crowd went the other direction. Net long calls jumped to 2.24 lakh, flipped from short Monday. Net long futures 1.55 lakh. They kept writing puts. Short puts position widened to 6.5 lakh contracts. When the crowd is this one sided, the market is going to punish them. And that day is today. ### 4. Segment 3: levels and asymmetry (about 3:56, estimated) Now the part that matters today. Sensex closed 75,200. Tomorrow is Sensex weekly expiry. One trading day to settlement. At the money strike 75,200. The straddle at the money 870 rupees. Implied move between now and Thursday close about 1.17 percent. Here is the asymmetry. The math behind options is not symmetric around this exact strike. Pull up the 75,200 row and the total options gamma number sits at plus 31. One strike below at 75,000 it is minus 321. Two strikes below at 74,500 it is minus 765. In plain language. Below 75,200 moves accelerate. Dips get bigger. Bounces snap back harder. Above it moves get pulled toward the next big writer level at 75,500 where there are over 10 lakh open calls. Above the line you get pinning. Below you get fireworks. Today we are going to see some fireworks in Sensex. Sensex sits exactly on this line right now. For Nifty the picture rhymes. 23,500 put has the biggest open position, 4.94 million contracts. That is the floor support. 23,700 call has the biggest call position 4.96 million. That is the ceiling. 23,600 is the magnet in between. One more thing and this is the tell. 23,700 put added 1.8 million contracts yesterday. Institutions paying for downside protection right at the ceiling. They are not picking direction. They are hedging both sides. ### 5. Segment 4: sectors and screener (about 5:44, estimated) Sector tape. IT is leading. Yesterday IT was up 3.23 percent. TCS, Infosys, HCL, Tech M all green. The Nvidia overhang is being priced in. Mid cap IT and telecom up 2.33. Pharma defensive bid is holding. Realty up 1.43. The other side. Private banks the weakest sector down 0.74. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank dragged. Bank Nifty broke 53,500 which it had been defending for 2 weeks. Metals flat. FMCG flat. The screener tape shows the IT basket, chemicals and mid cap select all on Strong Buy. Crypto continues to bleed. Bitcoin under 77,000. Ethereum at 2100. 814 million dollars in liquidation in 24 hours. The risk asset that bleeds first is usually the one that warns first. ### 6. Segment 5: tanmay's read (about 6:39, estimated) 2 things matter today. Bond yields climbing everywhere is a slow leak on foreign equity money. It explains why 1 day buying doesn't stick. And Sensex sits exactly on the math line, 1 day before expiry. When spot sits on this line, you do not pick a side. You buy options because their premium is cheap relative to the movement coming. You play for the movement either way. Below the line, ride the dip down. Above the line, ride the bounce back to the middle. When the move stretches, sell the stretched premium. When the move pins, buy it back. The keyword is hedge. Long futures, hedge with a put. Short futures, hedge with a call. The professional desk did this yesterday. Long futures plus long puts. Same shape as a long call. They paid for movement, not direction. We do the same. For RupeeCase Nifty subscribers, the strategy is at 10.23 percent CAGR. Alpha plus 11.15 over Nifty. Next rebalance 26 May. Live performance and 10 stock basket at rupeecase.com. Free. No login. ### 7. CTA close: two trades one magnet no side (about 8:00, estimated) That is the read for Wednesday 20 May. 1 day to Sensex expiry. Bond yields rising globally. Spot on the math line. Trade the movement, not the direction. If you are listening on Apple, Spotify or YouTube, thank you for being here. If this helped, please subscribe and rate. It helps other traders find the show. The Tanmay Edge drops at 8:30 AM IST every trading day on rupeecase.com. 2 trades. 1 magnet. No side picking. This is The Tanmay Edge. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow. ## Key takeaways - Nifty 23,618 down 31 points Tuesday close inside the 23,500 floor and 23,700 ceiling band - Sensex 75,200.85 down 158 points Tuesday close sits exactly on the at the money gamma flip - VIX 18.68 down 4.86 percent post Nifty expiry crush - USD INR 96.52 closed intraday high 96.62 RBI defended above 96.50 - Brent crude 110.51 down two thirds of a percent overnight WTI 103.36 - US 10Y 4.67 percent at a 1 year high UK 10Y jumped over 1 percent to 5.13 - Germany 10Y 3.19 Italy 3.98 Brazil 14.51 Japan 2.79 every curve climbing - GIFT Nifty 23,445 implied minus 120 gap down at 7:45 AM IST - FII cash Tuesday minus 2457 crore back to seller after 1 day flip - DII cash Tuesday plus 3802 crore bought the dip combined net plus 1344 crore - FII derivative stack net short futures 2.16 lakh long puts 4.27 lakh short calls 2.05 lakh three way bearish - Pro desk Tuesday booked 2.48 lakh net long calls kept puts added 16,000 more held 31,000 long futures - Client retail net long calls 2.24 lakh long futures 1.55 lakh short puts 6.5 lakh max bullish stack - Sensex 75,200 ATM straddle 870 rupees implied move 1.17 percent to Thursday close - Sensex 75,500 has over 10 lakh calls open as the writer level rally cap - Nifty 23,500 put open interest 4.94 million biggest floor - Nifty 23,700 call open interest 4.96 million biggest ceiling 23,600 magnet between - Nifty 23,700 put added 1.8 million contracts in one day institutional hedge at the ceiling - Nifty IT plus 3.23 percent led Tuesday TCS Infosys HCL Tech M all green Nvidia overhang priced - Bank Nifty broke 53,500 the level defended for 2 weeks private banks weakest minus 0.74 - Bitcoin under 77,000 Ethereum 2100 814 million dollars in 24 hour liquidations - RupeeCase Nifty strategy CAGR 10.23 percent alpha plus 11.15 over Nifty next rebalance 26 May ## Quotes > Tomorrow Sensex closes its weekly book. Today is the day before that. One day to settle the bet. > > Cold open. Frames Wednesday as the setup session before Sensex weekly expiry settles on Thursday. > When bonds pay more, equities pay relatively less. Foreign desks have a cheaper place to park money than emerging markets. That is the slow leak you have been watching for 3 weeks. > > Segment 1. The structural reason the 1 day FII buy did not stick. Yields across US UK Germany Italy Brazil Japan all higher. > Monday they were long both calls and puts at the same time. Tuesday they booked the call leg. They kept the puts. Long futures plus long puts is the same shape as a long call. > > Segment 2. Pro desk reset at Nifty expiry settle. Same long gamma posture as Friday but tilted to convex either way payout. > Sensex sits exactly on this line right now. Above the line you get pinning. Below you get fireworks. > > Segment 3. The gamma asymmetry at 75200. Plus 31 at the money flips to minus 321 one strike below and minus 765 two strikes below. > 23,700 put added 1.8 million contracts yesterday. Institutions paying for downside protection right at the ceiling. They are not picking direction. They are hedging both sides. > > Segment 3. The tell on the Nifty chain. Same shape as Pro desk on Sensex. Hedge first, side later. > When spot sits on this line, you do not pick a side. You buy options because their premium is cheap relative to the movement coming. Below the line, ride the dip down. Above the line, ride the bounce back to the middle. > > Segment 5. The TK directional rule of the day. No bet without hedge. Movement, not direction. > 2 trades. 1 magnet. No side picking. You just got earlier. > > CTA close. Compresses the long gamma plan and the standard RupeeCase signoff. ## Transcript A very good morning guys. Yesterday the foreigners sold again. The rupee stayed above 96. And tonight government bond yields are paying more all over the world. London, Berlin, Tokyo, New York. Yields climbing on every curve I am seeing. Tomorrow Sensex closes its weekly book. Today is the day before that. One day to settle the bet. This is The Tanmay Edge. India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2. Episode 43. Let's go. Start with what's loud overnight. Bond yields. 67%, parked at a 1 year high. 13%. 19% climbed almost 1%. 98%. 51. 79. When bonds pay more, equities pay relatively less. The math is simple. The foreign desks have a cheaper place to park money than emerging markets. That is the slow leak you have been watching for the last 3 weeks. GIFT Nifty is trading at 23,445, down 120 points. Asia is also mostly red. 18%. 54%. 5% across the last 3 sessions. 59%. Wall Street ended Tuesday weaker. 67%. Everyone is sitting on their hands until Nvidia opens its earnings book tonight US time. That is Thursday's mover for Indian IT. 51, slipping two thirds of a percent. 36. Gold is trading flat at 4,485 dollars per ounce. 62. The central bank stepped in there and some relief was seen. 36. Now let's look at the desks, what they did yesterday. On Monday FIIs flipped to buyer with 2,813 crore of cash buying. On Tuesday they sold again and back to basics, 2,457 crore back out of the door. So that flip lasted only one day. The buyer didn't stay. The cumulative number still stands at 54,151 crores for the year so far. But domestic desk did something interesting. DIIs came in with 3,802 crore on Tuesday. So when FIIs sold, DIIs bought the dip cleanly. Combined cash flow was actually positive by 1,344 crore for yesterday. Two desks, different views. Net result, Nifty barely moved, closed 23,618 down 31 points. The professional desk did something I want to flag out. On Monday they were long both calls and puts at the same time. A textbook bet on movement, no direction. On Tuesday, expiry day, they booked the call leg. 48 lakh net long calls came off the table. They kept the puts. Added more puts actually, 16,000 contracts more they have added. Held the long futures stack at 31,000 contracts. So here is what it means in plain language. Long futures plus long puts is the same shape as a long call. The put is paying for the downside protection on the futures bet. Net delta near zero, payout convex either way. Translation, the professional desk is paying for movement again, no side they are picking up. Foreigners on the derivative side stayed bearish. 16 lakh contracts. 27 lakh. 05 lakhs. Three way they are bearishly stacked. And the crowd, the retail clients, went the other direction. 24 lakh, flipped from short Monday. 55 lakh. And they kept writing puts as well. 5 lakh contracts. When the crowd is this one sided, the market is going to punish them badly and that day is today. Now the part that matters today. Sensex closed at 75,200. Tomorrow is Sensex weekly expiry. One trading day for settlement. The at the money strike is 75,200. The straddle at the money is trading around 870 rupees. 17 percent. Here is the asymmetry. The math behind options is not symmetric around this exact strike. Pull up the 75,200 row and the total options gamma number. It sits at plus 31. One strike below at 75,000, it's minus 321. Two strikes below at 74,500, it's minus 765. What does that mean in plain language? Below 75,200, moves get accelerated, dips get bigger, bounces snap back harder. Above it moves get pulled towards the next big option writer level at 75,500 where there are over 10 lakh open calls present. Above the line you get pinning. Below you get fireworks. And today we are going to see some fireworks happening in Sensex as well. Sensex sits exactly on this line right now. For Nifty picture this. 23,500 put has the biggest open position, almost 5 million contracts. That is the floor or this support that was present. 96 million. That is the ceiling or the resistance. 23,600 was the magnet in between them. One more thing and this is the tell. 8 million contracts yesterday. Institutions are paying for the downside protection right at the ceiling. They are not picking direction. They are hedging sides. So sectorial tape. IT is leading. 23 percent. TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Tech M, all green. The Nvidia overhang is being priced in. 33. Pharma defensive bid is also holding. 43. 74. HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank dragged. Bank Nifty broke 53,500 which it has been defending for the last two weeks. Metals were flat, FMCG was flat. The screener tape shows the IT basket, chemicals and mid cap select all as a Strong Buy. Crypto continues to bleed. Bitcoin is under 77,000. Ethereum at 2,100. 814 million dollars in liquidation we have seen in cryptos in the last 24 hours. The risk asset that bleeds first is usually the one that warns first. And here's the take guys. Two things that matter today. Bond yields are climbing everywhere. That is a slow leak on foreign equity money. And it explains why one day buying doesn't stick. And Sensex sits exactly on that math line one day before expiry. When spot sits on that line, you do not pick a side. You buy options because their premium is cheap relative to the movement that is incoming. You play for the movement either way. Below the line, ride the dip down. Above the line, ride the bounce back to the middle. When the move stretches, sell the stretched premium. When the move pins, buy it back. The keyword is hedge. If you are long futures, hedge it with a put. If you are short futures, hedge it with a call. The professional desk did this yesterday. Long futures plus long puts. Same shape as a long call. They paid for movement, not direction. We are going to do the same thing. 23% CAGR. 15% over Nifty. Next rebalance is on 26th May. com. Free, no login required. That is the read for Wednesday guys, 20th May. One day to expiry. Bond yields rising globally. Spot on the math line. Trade the movement, not the direction. If you are listening on Apple, Spotify or YouTube, thank you for being there. If this helped you, please subscribe and rate it as well. It helps other traders to find the show. com. Two trades, one magnet, no side picking. This is The Tanmay Edge. You just got earlier guys. See you all once again tomorrow. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - May 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-05/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP42, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-19 - Next: EP44, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-21 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.