--- title: "Sell The Spike. Buy The Dip. Sensex Holds | The Tanmay Edge" description: "oday is the rare combo. Sensex monthly expiry and Sensex weekly expiry stack on the same session. And tomorrow the market is closed." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-27 episode: 48 season: 2 date: 2026-05-27 duration_seconds: 759 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2861602/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_05_27_02_33_24_02c98b60-3000-4df8-b460-c1f9de93afd8.mp3 grade: 4/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Sell the spike. Buy the dip. Sensex holds 76,000 expiry day The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP48, Wednesday 27 May 2026, 12:39. Sensex monthly and weekly expiry stack same session 27 May Wed ## Scorecard Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded against the 29 May 2026 session; on the public trail from 1 Jun 2026. The call: Sensex Expiry - HIT: Sensex held 76,000 into expiry plus sell-the-spike buy-the-dip plan worked. - MISS: one level call slipped. Direction and regime read right. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: Sensex monthly and weekly same session plus a closed day tomorrow (about 0:00, estimated) Today is a stacked day. Sensex monthly expiry. Sensex weekly expiry. Same session. Same strike pulling both chains at once. And tomorrow the market is closed. Asia opened hot overnight. KOSPI ripped 3.93 percent. Taiwan plus 2.57. Nikkei plus 1.25. The US closed at fresh records again. And yet GIFT Nifty is sitting flat at 23,888 down 25 points. So why is India not joining the party. The answer is in the chain. The double magnet at 76,000 is pulling harder than a normal week and the holiday gap is being pre paid in the wings. ### 2. Segment 1: global tape US records Brent sub 100 INR the lone red flag (about 1:12, estimated) S&P 500 closed 7519. Fresh all time high. Nasdaq 26,656 plus 1.19 percent. Also fresh high. Dow futures plus 56 at 50,518. Three sessions of US records in a row. Iran ceasefire framework is the driver. Europe was mixed Tue close. FTSE plus 0.24. CAC minus 1.04. DAX minus 0.81. Europe is not the engine here. US and Asia are. Brent crude is 98.86 dollars. Fourth straight session sub 100. WTI 92.92. Both technically bearish now. Gold flat at 4518. Silver gave back another 5000 to 6000 rupees on MCX. Dollar Index 99.09 drifting weak. Rupee weakened 44 paise yesterday to 95.68. INR is the one piece that does not match the global risk on tape. The lone red flag. ### 3. Segment 2: three desks three stories pro booked FII defended client got greedy (about 2:42, estimated) Three desks did three different things yesterday. Pro, FII, Client. Watch each one. Pro came in plus 40,432 net long futures. Closed at minus 6320. A 46,752 contract reversal in one session. They cut 1,13,029 long calls. Added 46,642 fresh long puts. Three legs flipped same session. Futures bear. Calls cut. Puts stacked. The cleanest profit take pattern S2 has seen. They rode the Monday rally. Booked at the top. FII is the foreign money. Still net short index futures at minus 1,52,865 but covered 62,112 contracts of that short yesterday. Day two of the cover. Then added 1,56,521 fresh short calls and 79,284 fresh long puts. Covered the futures cover that hurt them. Sold more calls on top of the ceiling. Bought puts at the wings. Client is the crowd. Flipped from minus 1,13,796 short calls Monday to plus 1,58,033 long calls Tuesday. A 2,71,829 contract swing into max long. Added 1,01,765 fresh short puts on top of an already short put book. Max long calls plus max short puts. Maximum greed structure. ### 4. Segment 3: the double magnet at 76,000 Wall at 76,500 and floor at 75,000 (about 4:59, estimated) Start at the top. Strike 77,500 picked up 1,28,000 fresh short calls. 77,000 picked up 1,32,000 fresh shorts. Lottery tickets. They do not move spot. Strike 76,500 picked up 1,28,000 fresh short calls in one session. Total OI 1.56 million contracts. The biggest single line of fresh adds on the May series. The wall. Resistance zone 76,300 to 76,500. Strike 76,000 is the magnet. Call OI 9,85,000. Put OI 1.14 million. Combined 2.13 million contracts on one strike. Monthly chain and weekly chain agree on this line. Sensex closed yesterday 76,009. Ten points above the magnet. Below the magnet 76,200 and 76,300 puts unwound. Long puts cut by 2,06,000 and 2,86,000. Bullish for the floor staying at 76,000. Strike 75,500 added 3,63,000 fresh long puts. Secondary floor 1.13 million total. Strike 75,000 added 1,15,000 fresh long puts. Total 1.87 million contracts. The strongest support on the chain. 1000 points below spot. Not a normal hedge. That is the holiday gap hedge. ATM straddle at 76,000 trades 544 points. One standard deviation by 1.25 says the chain expects plus or minus 680 today. Band 75,330 to 76,690. ### 5. Segment 4: two story tension IV crush versus holiday open spike (about 7:31, estimated) Two stories collide today. Story one. The IV index for this expiry already crushed 10.21 percent pre open. From 16 to 14.36. The internal screener flipped to Sell IV. Calm. Pin. Premium decays. Story two. Tomorrow is closed. Writers cannot earn theta on a closed day. So they ask for extra premium at the open. The IV could pop briefly in the first 30 to 60 minutes before crushing again. Both stories are right. They play at different times. The morning spike is the sellers opportunity. Not a regime change. Just the holiday gap getting priced. Then the magnet pulls. ### 6. Segment 5: three branch trade plan pin day base case 65 percent (about 8:48, estimated) If Sensex opens above 76,200, that is breakout. Walk into 76,500 long. The wall has 1,28,000 fresh shorts defending. Most close on approach. 76,200 to 76,500 is the carry trade. If Sensex opens between 75,900 and 76,100, that is the pin day. Base case 65 percent weighted. Buy dips into 75,900. Sell calls 76,300 to 76,500 into the morning vol pop. Hedge with 75,500 puts at 88 rupees. Almost free given the closed day risk. Carry to settle. If Sensex opens below 75,800, that is failure. Fade rallies to 76,100. Floor 75,500 first then 75,000. Use the 75,000 put cluster as cover. ### 7. Segment 6: Bank Nifty 55,090 may done and new Nifty June 24,000 magnet (about 10:07, estimated) Bank Nifty settled 55,090 yesterday. May monthly done. The June future already trades 55,457 with 500 points premium to cash. Real money rolled into June. Buy dips Bank Nifty at 55,000. Bank Nifty is the biggest driver into June series. The new Nifty June series opens today. The 24,000 strike has 9.92 lakh combined contracts of OI. Biggest single stacked strike in three months. The chain wants to settle there across the holiday gap. 24,000 is the magnet for the next two to five sessions. ### 8. CTA close: education on double pull and RupeeCase Nifty day one plus 71 BPS (about 11:13, estimated) When two expiries stack on the same strike, the pull at that strike is roughly double a normal session. Add a closed day and hedges have to reprice once at the open. The IV crush we are pricing pre open does not skip the open spike. It just comes back to crush right after. RupeeCase Nifty 10 picked up 71 basis points yesterday. Day one since Monday rebalance. Nine of ten stocks beat the Nifty. NESTLEIND plus 1.06. ONGC plus 0.89. ADANIPORTS plus 0.46. The framework picked up the rotation. Streaming live on rupeecase.com. Sell the spike. Buy the dip. Watch 76,000 by the close. Have a great expiry and a happy holiday tomorrow. ## Key takeaways - Sensex monthly and weekly expiry stack same session 27 May Wed - NSE BSE closed Thu 28 May holiday for Eid al Adha - Sensex Tue close 76,009 ten points above 76,000 magnet - Nifty Tue 23,913 down 118 minus 0.49 percent - Bank Nifty May monthly settled 55,090 - India VIX 16.13 first sub 16 close since March - Pro flipped futures plus 40,432 to minus 6320 a 46,752 contract reversal one session - Pro cut 1,13,029 long calls and added 46,642 fresh long puts same session - FII covered 62,112 short futures day two of cover net still short 1,52,865 - FII added 1,56,521 fresh short calls and 79,284 fresh long puts at the wings - Client swing 2,71,829 contracts into long calls plus 1,01,765 fresh short puts - Strike 76,500 added 1,28,000 fresh short calls total OI 1.56 million the wall - Strike 76,000 combined OI 2.13 million CE 9,85,000 plus PE 1.14 million magnet - Strike 75,500 added 3,63,000 fresh long puts secondary floor 1.13 million total - Strike 75,000 added 1,15,000 fresh long puts total 1.87 million holiday gap hedge - ATM 76,000 straddle 544 points 1SD by 1.25 implies plus minus 680 - Sensex expected band 75,330 to 76,690 by chain math - Sensex June future 76,449 with 440 points premium to cash - Nifty June 24,000 strike OI 9.92 lakh biggest stacked strike in three months - S&P 7519 Nasdaq 26,656 Dow Fut 50,518 Brent 98.86 WTI 92.92 INR 95.68 ## Quotes > Today is a stacked day. Sensex monthly expiry. Sensex weekly expiry. Same session. Same strike pulling both chains at once. > > Cold open. Sets the day one frame of monthly plus weekly expiry collision plus a closed day tomorrow. > Pro took profit. FII defended range. Client got greedy. > > Three desks segment. The compressed one line read of yesterday's flipped positioning across smart money, foreign money, and the crowd. > Max long calls plus max short puts. Maximum greed structure. Every time the crowd takes this shape at a chain top, the chain bites them. > > Client positioning takeaway. The cautionary frame that turns into the morning sell the spike trade. > That is not a normal hedge. That is somebody paying for protection across a closed day. The holiday gap hedge. > > Chain section. Read on the 75000 put cluster at 1.87 million contracts a thousand points below spot. > The IV crush we are pricing pre open does not skip the open spike. It just comes back to crush right after. > > Education segment. The mechanic that explains why the morning vol pop is the writer opportunity not a regime change. > When two expiries stack on the same strike, the pull at that strike is roughly double a normal session. > > Education on the double magnet mechanic. Why writers built the wall at 76500 and the floor at 75000 so heavily in one session. > Sell the spike. Buy the dip. Watch 76,000 by the close. > > Sign off line. The full day rule compressed into seven words. ## Transcript This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 48. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. A very good morning guys. Today is a stacked day. Sensex monthly expiry, Sensex weekly expiry. Same session, same strike pulling both chains at one. And tomorrow the market is closed. Asia has opened hot overnight. 25 percent, the US closed at fresh record again and yet GIFT Nifty is sitting flat at 23,888, down 25 points. So why is India not joining the party? The answer lies in the option chain. Let me show you what I am seeing right now. Starting with the offshore overlay. S&P 500 closed 7519. Fresh all-time highs. 19 percent also fresh highs. Dow futures is positive 56 points. The US tech rip is real and it kept running last night. Iran ceasefire framework is the driver. Three sessions of US records in a row. Europe was mixed Tuesday's close. 81. Europe is not the engine. US and Asia are. And on the commodities front, the peace pivot is still extending. 86, below that $99 mark. Fourth straight session sub 100. 92. Both technically bearish now. Gold is flat at 4518 dollar per ounce. Silver gave back another 5000 to 6000 rupees on MCX. 09, drifting weak. 68. That is the one piece that does not match the global risk on tape. INR remains the lone red flag for India. Rest all is positive. So you have US at records. Asia is ripping. Oil is sub 100. Gold is soft. INR is weak. GIFT Nifty is flat. The disconnect is local. The chain knows why. Three desks did three different things yesterday on Sensex expiry. Pro, FII and Client. Watch each one one of them and listen to it carefully. Pro is the smart money. They came into yesterday with plus 40,432 net long futures. They closed at minus 6320. That is flat. But that is a 46,752 contracts reversal in one session. They didn't stop there. They cut 1 lakh 13,029 calls as well. Then they added 46,642 fresh long puts. Three legs flipped in one session. Futures bear, calls cut, puts have been booked and stacked. This is the cleanest profit taking pattern we have seen. They rode the Monday rally. They booked at the top. And FIIs, the foreign money, they are still net short index futures at minus 1,52,865. But they covered 62,000 contracts of that short yesterday. Day 2 of the cover. Sounds bullish. But look at the options side. FII added 1,56,521 fresh short calls. Okay, that is them building the wall, not chasing the upside. And they added 79,284 fresh long puts as well. So FII is doing the opposite of directional. Covered the futures cover that hurt them. Sold more calls on the top of the ceiling. Bought puts at the wings to protect the downside. Client is the crowd. They flipped from minus 1,13,796 short calls on Monday to plus 1,58,033 long calls on Tuesday. A 2,71,829 contract swing into max long. And they added another 1,01,765 fresh short puts on top of that already short book that they were holding. So client is max long calls plus max short puts. Maximum greed structure we can see. Every time the crowd takes that shape at the chain top, the chain bites them back and it hurts them badly. Pro took profit. FII defended the range. Client got greedy. And today is what comes next. So now look at where the OI built up started happening yesterday. Remember today's Sensex monthly expiry, so both chains on the same strikes. The double magnet pulls harder than a normal week. Starting at the top. 28 lakh fresh short calls. Far out of the money calls. Pure premium decay positioning. 32 lakh fresh shorts. Also a lottery ticket. These do not move the spot. Then comes the real ceiling or the resistance. Strike 76,500. 28 lakh fresh short calls in one session. 56 million contracts. The biggest single strike line fresh adds on the May series. That is the resistance. Remember it. 76,300 to 76,500 would be the resistance. Below the resistance is the rotation zone. 76,200, 300 and 400. All got 360 to 477,000 fresh shorts each. Sellers stacking the ceiling from 76,200 upwards till 76,500. That is where the call ratios or calls have been written. Then the magnet or the pin strike. The strike is 76,000. Call OI is 985,000. 14 million contracts. 13 million contracts on one strike. Monthly chain and weekly chain agree on this line. Sensex closed yesterday around 76,000. Ten points above the magnet. Below the magnet two important moves that can happen. 76,200 and 300 puts unwound. Long puts cut by 2 lakh and 2 lakh 86 thousand. That is a push for the support staying at 76,000. Then comes the support so let's talk about it as well. So 75,500 up 363,000 fresh long puts. Secondary floor. 13 million total. And then 75,000 directly. 15 lakh fresh long in one session. 87 million contracts. Okay, that is the strongest support on the chain at 1000 points below the spot. That is not a normal hedge. That is somebody paying for protection across the closed day. The holiday is tomorrow so there is a holiday hedge as well in play. And ATM straddle at 76,000 is trading at 544 points. So one standard deviation says the chain expects plus or minus 680 points today. That gives us a range of 75,330 on the bottom end. Remember that. To 76,690. Okay so there are two stories that collide today. 27 percent from yesterday. 36. So is the premium decay. And story two is tomorrow is closed. Tomorrow is a holiday. Writers cannot earn theta on a closed day. So they ask for that extra premium at the open briefly in the first 30 to 60 minutes. Keep a watch on that before crushing again. Stories are right. They play will at different times. The morning spike is the seller's opportunity. Not a regime change. Just a holiday gap up priced in. Then the magnet can pull up the whole option chain as well. So the trade plan for today. If Sensex opens above 76,200, that is a clear breakout. Walk into the 76,500 long because that is the strike that might get hit if we stay above 76,200. 28 lakh fresh shorts defending over there. Most of these shorts approach on 76,200 to 76,500 is the carry trade that everyone is playing. Call ratios. If Sensex opens between 75,900 to 76,100 that is what most likely the base case is present. Buy the dips until 75,900 doesn't break. Sell calls of 76,300 and 500 to maximize your long hedge. Also you can buy 75,500 which is trading around 88 right now and which would open around 65 to 70. Almost free given the closed day risk. Carry to settle. If Sensex opens below 75,800, that is a failure. So the fade would happen to 76,000 and that is where you have to sell if the market puts back anything. Floor is then 75,500 and then there is a deeper floor of 75,000. That is the maximum support. So 75,500 is then the likely case and use 75,000 puts if you are going to buy if the market opens below 75,800. And Bank Nifty settled at 55,090 yesterday. May monthly is done. The June futures is already up with 500 points of premium to cash. Real money rolled into June. So buy the dips on Bank Nifty. Bank Nifty is the biggest driver we could see in the month of June. The new June expiry opens today. 92 lakh combined contracts of OI. Biggest single strike in the last few seasons we have seen. The chain wants to settle there across the holiday gap. 24,000 is the magnet for the next two to five sessions. Remember it. The market is not going to leave 24,000 easily. One thing worth keeping for the next time. Today is a rare combo. Sensex monthly plus a closed day tomorrow. When two expiries stack on the same expiry strike, at that strike is roughly double a normal session. That is why writers built the resistance at 76,500 and a support at 75,000 so quickly yesterday. They are betting on the settlement inside this range. And a closed day, and hedges have to reprice once again at the open. The IV crush we are seeing yesterday does not skip the open spike. It comes back to crush after the spike is done in the opening part. And RupeeCase Nifty 10 picked up 71 basis points yesterday. Day one since Monday's rebalance. Nine out of ten stocks beat the Nifty. 06. 89. 46. The framework picked up the rotation. com as well. Have a great Wednesday guys. And a longer Wednesday because tomorrow is a holiday. Sell that spike. Buy the dip. Watch 76,000 by the close. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, guys, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give it a rating, guys, if you like it and a review if you want to add something in the podcast. Have a great expiry. A happy holiday tomorrow and see you once again on Friday. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - May 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-05/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP47, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-26 - Next: EP49, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-29 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.