--- title: "Buy The Dip. 24,000 Today. Protect Over | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Three sectoral indices touched 52 week highs on Wednesday. Power closed up 3.27%. Capital Goods up 3.21%. Metal up 1.74%." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-29 episode: 49 season: 2 date: 2026-05-29 duration_seconds: 545 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2867923/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_05_29_02_34_14_53af9ac2-4b05-4a1f-9064-3032f48bd096.mp3 grade: 2/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Buy the dip. 24,000 today. Protect over the weekend The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP49, Friday 29 May 2026, 9:05. Sensex closed 75,868 down 141.90 on Wednesday ## Scorecard Grade 2/5 (40 percent): 2 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 3 miss. Graded the next trading day, 1 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Weekend Protect - HIT: Nifty tagged 24,000 at 24,002 and DIIs kept buying 16,764 crore. - MISS: 23,800 did not hold (auction to 23,484), volatility spiked to 16.35 not below 16, every strong sector closed red. Weakest card of the season but the protect-and-own-volatility thesis won. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: the headline said red. The chart said something else. (about 0:00, estimated) Very good morning. This is The Tanmay Edge. Episode 49. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Wednesday at close the Sensex was down 142 points. The headline said red. Nifty closed at 23,908. Basically flat. Most people who looked at the index and walked away thought the market did nothing. The market did a lot of things on Wednesday. The BSE Power index closed up 3.27%. Capital Goods closed up 3.21%. Metal closed up 1.74%. All three sectoral indices touched fresh 52 week highs during the day. On the same Wednesday the Sensex closed in the red. The drag was idiosyncratic. The bet underneath was something else entirely. ### 2. The HDFCBANK story: one stock ate the Sensex (about 1:09, estimated) Two letters explain Wednesday. HDFCBANK down 2.63%. Given its weight in the Sensex that one stock ate roughly 260 index points by itself. Strip HDFCBANK out and the Sensex closed up Wednesday. The headline number lied about the underlying tape. The Sensex moved on one ticker. Everything else moved the other way. Bank Nifty cash closed 54,854 down 0.43%, also dragged by the private bank pack. The Nifty intraday range was 23,858 to 23,984. That is 126 points on a 23,900 ATM. Calm. Advance decline on the Nifty 50 was 34 advances to 16 declines. The breadth was buy under the headline. ### 3. VIX 15.24: the cost of insurance just collapsed (about 2:16, estimated) India VIX closed Wednesday at 15.24 down 5.5%. Some prints during the day hit 14.98. Either way that is a sub 15 print and a regime change from where we were last week and last month. The market is pricing calm into a holiday shortened week with a Saturday and a Sunday of news risk ahead. DIIs bought 3821 crore on Wednesday. FIIs sold 1042 crore in cash. The domestic absorption ratio runs 3.66 to 1. In past episodes when that ratio runs above 3 the buyer conviction has carried for one to two weeks. The flow story is the loudest part of this read. ### 4. Three players three bets one market (about 3:18, estimated) The NSE participant report for Wednesday shows three different desks doing three different things on the same chain. Retail (Client) closed net long 1,37,000 index futures and short 7,05,000 puts. They sold the floor. Bullish, confident, pocketing the premium as the market oscillates. Professional desk closed almost flat on futures at minus 8810. Long both option legs. Net long 96,000 calls and net long 2,35,000 puts. Long gamma. Paying for movement in either direction with a heavier hand on the downside. Not bearish. Buying the cheapness of the insurance. FII closed net short 1,63,000 index futures and added to that short. Wrote 2,00,000 fresh calls. Bought 4,37,000 long puts. Three lane conviction short. Betting on a ceiling and paying for protection underneath. ### 5. Chain map: magnet 23,900, Wall 24,000, range 23,525 to 24,289 (about 4:46, estimated) Magnet on the Nifty 02 Jun chain sits at 23,900. Cushion below runs 23,800 to 23,700 where put writers have been selling the floor. First real obstacle on the upside is 24,000 where call writers stacked the heaviest open interest of the entire chain at 8.65 million contracts. Above that 24,200 sits as secondary resistance. ATM straddle 305.25. One standard deviation move on Friday by 1.25 is 382 points. Expected day range 23,525 to 24,289. GIFT Nifty 23,889 is plus 0.07%. Flat open into the gap. India 10 year bond yield 6.98%, first sub 7 print of this cycle. The bond market is pricing rate cuts and duration buyers are showing up. ### 6. The trade plan: buy the dip, protect over the weekend (about 5:58, estimated) Three steps for Friday. One. Buy the dip on any open back to 23,870 or below. Magnet says 23,900. Base case is a touch of 24,000. Two. If 24,000 breaks on volume with call writers covering, look for 24,200 as the next resistance zone where the market should start consolidating. Three. Do not carry short option positions into the Friday close. Long volatility over the weekend is a good bet given how cheap insurance is. A US holiday weekend with headline risk the market is not pricing. Buying insurance when it is cheap is what professionals do. Simpler version. Buy Nifty Bees or one Nifty futures lot on any dip into 23,850 to 23,880. Carry the position with a 23,800 put for weekend protection. Cost is pocket money. If 24,000 breaks the upside is open. ### 7. Sectors, catalysts, and EP48 grade (about 7:24, estimated) Power, Capital Goods and Metal lead the breadth read with three fresh 52 week highs. Auto closed up 1.45% Wednesday with 93% of constituents advancing, the strongest breadth in the entire sectoral pack. Pharma, PSU Bank, Energy and Infrastructure all came in green with 80% plus advance decline ratios. Defensives FMCG, IT and the private banks were the drag. Catalysts. US holiday weekend. Brent sub 100 for the seventh consecutive session. India 10Y at 6.98%. US fresh record close S&P 7563 and Nasdaq 26,917. Asia open green Nikkei plus 1.83%, KOSPI plus 2.47%, Taiwan plus 2.13%, Hang Seng plus 0.4%. EP48 5 point grade. 4 hit, 1 strict miss. Sensex closed inside the band. Sensex intraday low above the 75,330 floor. VIX closed below 16.5 by a huge margin. Auto closed green. The one strict miss was the band by 32 points. 80% of EP48 predictions set and locked. Tracked live on rupeecase.com. ## Key takeaways - Sensex closed 75,868 down 141.90 on Wednesday - Nifty closed 23,908 down 0.03% intraday range 23,858 to 23,984 - BSE Power up 3.27% Capital Goods up 3.21% Metal up 1.74% all three touched fresh 52 week highs - HDFCBANK down 2.63% ate roughly 260 Sensex points by itself - Bank Nifty cash 54,854 down 0.43% dragged by private bank pack - India VIX 15.24 down 5.5% intraday low 14.98 first sub 15 print of this cycle - DII bought 3821 crore FII sold 1042 crore absorption ratio 3.66 to 1 - FII net short 1,63,000 index futures wrote 2,00,000 fresh calls bought 4,37,000 long puts - Pro flat futures at minus 8810 long 96,000 calls long 2,35,000 puts long gamma both sides - Client net long 1,37,000 index futures short 7,05,000 puts selling the floor - Nifty 02 Jun ATM straddle 305.25 one SD 382 points range 23,525 to 24,289 - Magnet 23,900 cushion 23,800 to 23,700 wall 24,000 with 8.65 million contracts - GIFT Nifty 23,889 flat plus 0.07% pre open - India 10 year bond yield 6.98% first sub 7 print of this cycle - Brent 92.2 WTI 88 sub 100 for the seventh consecutive session - S&P 500 fresh record 7563 Nasdaq 26,917 closing Thursday US - Asia open green Nikkei plus 1.83% KOSPI plus 2.47% Taiwan plus 2.13% - Auto up 1.45% with 93% breadth advancing strongest sectoral read of the day - EP48 5 point grade 4 hit 1 strict miss band miss by 32 points - Buy zone 23,850 to 23,880 base case 24,000 stretch 24,200 with 23,800 put weekend hedge ## Quotes > The headline said red. The chart said something else. > > Cold open framing on Wednesday's 142 point Sensex drop hiding three sectoral 52 week highs > Strip HDFCBANK out and the Sensex was up on Wednesday actually. The drag was idiosyncratic. > > On the 2.63% HDFCBANK fall eating roughly 260 Sensex points by itself > The market is pricing calm. The cost of insurance has just collapsed. > > On India VIX printing 15.24 sub 15 for the first time in this cycle > Three players. Three bets. One market. The chart underneath all three is breaking out. > > On the NSE participant report split, Client long futures short puts, Pro long gamma both sides, FII three lane short > Buying insurance when it is cheap is what professionals do. If nothing happens the premium decays. If something happens the protection pays. > > On running long volatility into the US holiday weekend with VIX at 15.24 > My base case is that we touch 24,000 today. My higher case is that we breach 24,000 on the upside. > > Trade plan setup given FII short positioning and domestic absorption running at 3.66 to 1 > Leaders do not buy the laggards just because they look cheap. > > On Power Capital Goods Metal Auto leading the breadth while FMCG IT and private banks dragged ## Transcript Very good morning guys. This is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 49. I am Tanmay Kurtukoti. Let's go. Wednesday at close, the Sensex was down 142 points. The headline said red. Nifty closed at 23,908. Basically flat. Most people who looked at the index and walked away thought the market did nothing. The markets did a lot of things here. 63 % on Wednesday. That one stock given its weight in the Sensex ate almost 260 index points by itself. Strip HDFC Bank out and the Sensex was up on Wednesday actually. The drag was idiosyncratic. The bet underneath was something... 98 during the day either way that is a sub 15 print and that is a regime change from where we were on t on last week and last month as well the market is pricing calm the cost of insurance has just collapsed a lot and number two the domestic institutions bought 3821 crores on Wednesday. And the FIS sold almost 1042 crores in cash. 66 to 1. When that ratio runs above 3, in the past episodes, it has been a buyer conviction signal that runs for 1 or 2 weeks. Keep that in mind now. Now here is where it gets interesting and I want you to slow down with me for the next minute. The NSC participant report for Wednesday shows 3 different people betting in 3 different ways on the same market. The retail crowd, what the report calls it as clients, sat at the close with net long of 1,37,000 index futures contract and they had written almost 7 lakh net puts. They sold the floor. They are bullish and they are confident and they are pocketing the premium as the markets are oscillating. The professional desk, the proprietary book were almost flat on futures, minus 8810. They bought both legs of options. On the option side, they went long gamma. They are now net long 96,000 calls and net long 2,35,000 puts. They are paying to own moment in either direction with slightly heavier hand on the downside. They are not bearish. They are buying the cheapness of the insurance because the insurance has just gotten extremely cheap. The FIS does did something entirely different. They closed Wednesdays with net short of 1,63,000 index futures. They added to that short. They wrote 2,00,000 calls as well. So they are betting on a ceiling. That is the market is not going to go higher. And they bought 4,36,000. 2 dollars and WTI at 88 both staying below 100. So no oil panic from any geopolitical headlines. And the US closed yesterday at fresh record highs on S &P at 7563 and Nasdaq at 26,917. 83%. 47%. 13%. Even Hang Seng slipped. 45 % with 93 % of the constituents advancing, the strongest breadth in the entire sectorial pack. Pharma, PSU, energy and infrastructure all came in green. The drag was the defensives on Wednesday, FMCG, IT and private banks. By the breadth, leaders do not buy the laggards just because they look cheap. Last episode, I called five things. Four hit cleanly. The Sensex closed in the band. The Sensex intraday low was way above 75, 330. 5 by a huge margin. And the auto sector positive on that day. The only miss was the strict band miss by 32%. com as well that was the tanma edge for friday guys the story today was three players three bets one market the trade for today is buy the dip and look for 24 000 on the upside the carry today is do not hold short options position into friday's close buy your protection while it is cheap so guys i am tanmay and if this helped you share it with one trade And if you have a second... second then rate the show on the podcast app so the next trader who is searching for this can actually find it and it will help the podcast as well so thank you guys and see you once again on monday have a very happy trading on friday and a great weekend ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - May 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-05/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP48, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-05-27 - Next: EP50, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-01 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.