---
title: "Max Pain Says Up. Gamma Says Down. | The Tanmay Edge"
description: "Tuesday is weekly expiry and it opens at the worst possible spot | the lower edge of the range the options chain priced for the full day."
source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-02
episode: 51
season: 2
date: 2026-06-02
duration_seconds: 518
audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2877666/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_06_02_02_30_57_17b17328-279b-41e1-8ccb-46c78f5cdd40.mp3
grade: 4/5
generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML)
---

# Max pain says up. Gamma says down.

The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP51, Tuesday 2 Jun 2026, 8:38. EP50 graded two out of five 40 percent

## Scorecard

Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 3 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement.

The call: Weekly Expiry

- HIT: 23,145 held with the low at 23229, 23,600 held as a ceiling with the high 23557, IT led with the IT index up 3.83 percent, and DII bought 9058 crore to absorb the gap down.
- MISS: the fear gauge did not stay above 15, it slid to 15 and kept falling. Open was the low and price closed right back on the 23,500 magnet. Best card in weeks.

## Chapters

### 1. Cold open: Monday graded two out of five (about 0:00, estimated)

This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 51. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Weekly expiry special. Let me close out yesterday first.

Five predictions. Nifty holds 23,650, missed, the low was 23,357. Close above 23,700, missed, we closed 23,382.60. VIX below 16, missed, it rose to 16.49. FII selling shrinks from Friday's scale, hit, 21,000 crore of MSCI rebalance dropped to 3900. And 24,000 stays a ceiling, hit, the high was only 23,733.70.

Two out of five. Forty percent. The flow calls were right. The level and volatility calls were wrong.

### 2. Monday decoded: the gap filled then sold all day (about 1:09, estimated)

Monday opened 106 points higher. The gap from Friday's closing auction, the one the screen never showed right, closed in the first hour. Nifty hit 23,733.70 by about 9:20, which was Friday's real fair value, the number the MSCI rebalance was hiding. The dislocation paid itself.

Then the market sold. Every single hour, all day, from the open high straight into the close at 23,382.60. Breadth was ten stocks up, forty down. VIX rose.

The snap-back told you the truth about Friday. The day itself told you the truth about Monday. Both stories were the same. There is selling above 23,700 and it is real.

### 3. The overnight: crude softens before RBI (about 2:25, estimated)

Overnight, something shifted. The crude spike that looked like the dominant story last week, Brent had hit 97, has partially reversed. This morning Brent is at 94.36, down about 3 dollars from where it was at 8 PM. That is a real softening.

RBI meets this week and crude is a direct input into how much room they have on rates. That overnight pullback is the most positive thing India could have hoped for going into the decision.

### 4. But Asia sells: no clean global read (about 3:19, estimated)

GIFT Nifty came in at 23,234, down 207 points. That is a 0.88 percent gap down from Monday's close. Nikkei is falling 1.74 percent. KOSPI is down 2.65 percent. Asia is not following the crude relief story. It is running its own correction.

Nasdaq futures are up 0.42 percent and S&P futures are up 0.26, so the US tech bid that drove IT here yesterday is still live. Dow futures are slightly red. No clean directional read. India trades its own expiry story today. The open is likely somewhere around 23,175 to 23,230.

### 5. The switch level: why the magnet has to fight (about 4:24, estimated)

The 1SD range the chain priced for the full day is 23,145 on the low and 23,620 on the high. We open at the lower end. The biggest concentration of option positions, the natural magnet, sits at 23,500, about 270 points above the open.

Most people hear that writers are protecting 23,500 and expect a drift up. That pull is real. But it depends on a switch level. Around 23,450 to 23,500, the way market maker hedging works changes direction. Above it, hedging slows moves and pulls price toward the magnet. Below it, where we open, that same hedging amplifies moves instead.

A market that cannot reclaim 23,450 in the first hour is one where every hundred-point move happens faster than you expect. Max pain says up to 23,500. The structure says first reclaim 23,450.

### 6. The plan: 23,200 is the whole day (about 6:00, estimated)

23,200 is where the first real cluster of put positions sits. It is the hard floor in today's chain. Price opens right at it, and the first 20 minutes tell you the shape of the day.

If 23,200 holds and price crosses back above 23,250 in the first 15 minutes, buyers step in. If TECHM and Infy come in green again, IT lifts the index even with everything else flat, and DII programs land after 10 AM on the gap down. The bounce target is 23,300 to 23,350, then 23,400, and from there the switch at 23,450 is fifty points away.

If 23,200 breaks and price pushes through to 23,150 and holds below for more than 15 minutes, you are in the fast lane below the switch. The next reference is 23,145. Do not try to catch a falling expiry. Do not sell premium. Step aside and wait.

### 7. Sign off: do not carry into RBI (about 7:37, estimated)

One more variable. At 94.36 crude is much better than last night's 97, but the tension that caused the spike is not gone. A fresh headline re-sending Brent above 97 is your circuit breaker for any bounce.

Whatever happens at 15:30 today, do not carry position into Wednesday. RBI announces. You have had an expiry day, a crude overhang, and a gap-down morning all stacked before the rate decision. Let today settle. Clean slate for RBI.

Stream free on rupeecase.com. See you Wednesday.

## Key takeaways

- EP50 graded two out of five 40 percent
- Monday held 23,650 missed low was 23,357
- Monday close above 23,700 missed closed 23,382.60
- VIX below 16 missed rose to 16.49
- FII selling shrank from 21,000 crore Friday to 3900 Monday hit
- 24,000 ceiling held high only 23,733.70 hit
- Monday opened 106 points higher
- Friday dislocation gap filled by 9:20 at 23,733.70
- Monday breadth 10 stocks up 40 down
- GIFT Nifty 23,234 down 207 points 0.88 percent gap down
- Nikkei down 1.74 percent KOSPI down 2.65 percent
- Nasdaq futures up 0.42 percent S&P futures up 0.26 percent
- Brent 94.36 down about 3 dollars from overnight 97
- Expiry 1SD range 23,145 low to 23,620 high
- Max pain magnet 23,500 about 270 points above the open
- Switch level 23,450 to 23,500 flips hedging from damping to amplifying
- Hard floor 23,200 first put cluster
- Bounce target 23,300 to 23,350 then 23,400
- FII sold 3912 crore Monday DII absorbed 5109 crore
- PCR 0.49 calls heavily outnumber puts overhead supply dominant

## Quotes

> Max pain says up to 23,500. The structure says first reclaim 23,450.
>
> The central tug of war that frames the entire expiry-day setup.

> The snap-back told you the truth about Friday. The day itself told you the truth about Monday.
>
> Recapping Monday opening into the gap fill then selling every hour.

> Below this level, that same hedging reverses. Instead of damping moves, it amplifies them.
>
> Explaining the gamma switch level around 23450 to 23500.

> A market that cannot reclaim 23,450 in the first hour is a market where every hundred-point move happens faster than you expect.
>
> Why opening below the switch on expiry day is different from a normal day.

> 23,200 is the hard floor in today’s chain. Price opens right at it.
>
> Naming the single level the whole session hinges on.

> Do not try to catch a falling expiry in this regime. The move lower will be faster than your hedge.
>
> The risk rule if 23200 breaks below the switch.

> Do not carry the result into RBI tomorrow. Clean slate for RBI.
>
> The sign-off discipline ahead of Wednesday’s rate decision.

## Transcript

Very good morning guys. Monday opened 106 points higher. The gap from Friday's closing auction, the one the screen never showed right, closed in the first hour of trade. Nifty had hit 23,734 by 9:20, which was Friday's real fair value, the number the MSCI rebalancing was hiding. The dislocation paid itself. Then the market sold every single hour, all day long, from open high straight into the close of 23,382. Was 10 stocks up, 40 down. VIX rose. The snapback told you the truth about Friday.

The day itself told you the truth about Monday. Both stories were the same: there is selling above 23,700 and it is real. So you are listening to the Tanmay Edge. This is episode 51. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Now here is what Tuesday morning looks like. Today is expiry day. Overnight something shifted drastically. The crude spike that looked like the dominant story over the last week, Brent had hit $97, had partially reversed. We saw a sell-off on cryptos as well.

And there is chatter about the war talk again spiking up. 36, down about $3 from where it was yesterday night. That is the real softening. The RBI meeting is this week where crude is a direct input in how much room they have on the rates. The overnight pullback is the most positive thing India could have hoped for. But Asia is doing its own thing today morning. GIFT Nifty came in at 23,234, down almost 200 points. 9% gap down from Monday's close.

75%. 65%. Asia is not following the crude softening relief story. It is running its own correction. 26%. So the US tech bid that drove IT here yesterday is still alive. Dow futures are still slightly red. So no clean directional read from global markets and India trades its own expiry story today. The open is likely somewhere around 23,175 to 23,230. And here is why where we open matters that much. The 1SD range for this expiry, the full width of the day's move the options chain has priced, is 23,145 on the lower end and 23,620 on the higher end.

We are opening at the lower end of that range. And the biggest concentration of options positions for this weekly expiry, the natural magnet, sits at 23,500. That is 270 points above where we are going to start. This is the setup I want to explain today because it is the cleanest expiry lesson this season has produced. When most people hear that option writers are protecting 23,500, that is the price where most buyers lose, they expect the market to just drift up towards it on expiry day.

That pull is real. But whether it actually works depends on something most traders do not know about. A switch level in the option structure. Around 23,450 to 23,500 on today's chain, the way market maker hedging works changes direction. Above this level, hedging tends to slow moves down and pull the price towards the magnet. Market is calmer, it drifts. Below this level, we are opening at 23,230, that same hedging reverses. Instead of dampening moves, it amplifies them. A market that cannot reclaim 23,450 in the first hour is a market where every 100-point move happens faster than you expect.

This is why opening below the switch level on expiry day is different from opening below it on a regular day. The magnet exists. It can still pull up. But it has to fight the amplification every step on the way. And then the clients are holding a huge amount of short puts that could get stretched out in the first hour. Watch for those stop losses getting triggered. And that 23,200 to 23,145 level is what we are looking for. That is the tug of war today.

Max pain says 23,500. The structure says: first reclaim 23,200. So 23,200 is where the real cluster of put positions sits. It is the hard floor in today's chain. Price opens right at it. What happens in the first 20 minutes tells you the shape of the day. If price opens around 23,175 to 23,230 and 23,200 holds, buyers will start to step in. Bounce will start in. And VIX is the main criteria for today. If VIX stays elevated then there is a high likelihood of 23,000 hitting on today's expiry as well.

But if the VIX starts to cool down and 23,200 holds, then you have the foundation. Nasdaq is up this morning. IT showed up yesterday. So if TECHM and Infy come in green again they lift the index even when everything else is flat or negative. Watch for domestic institutional buying happening after 10 AM as well. That is where DII programs typically land on large gap downs and they will start buying in. The bounce target is 23,300 to 23,350. 150 to 200 points can be expected in the morning session.

If that holds and IT runs, 23,450 by afternoon becomes real. From 23,450 the switch becomes in play and 23,500 is just 50 points away. Reclaim that and the magnet at 23,500 starts pulling for real. If 23,200 breaks in the first 15 minutes and pushes through, we are watching for that 23,145 level as the signal as well. You are in the fast lane below the switch. That is the 23,400 level below which the market is in negative gamma territory. The 1SD lower bound is being touched.

Do not try to catch the falling expiry in this regime. Do not sell premiums if the volatility is rising. The move lower will be faster than your hedge. Step aside and wait for stabilization. One more variable guys. 36 this morning crude is much better than yesterday. But the tension that caused the spike is not gone. A fresh headline resending Brent above 97 is your circuit breaker for any bounce. Watch crude this morning along with equities. If crude holds flat or softens further the bounce setup has some chances.

If it re-accelerates the DII bid gets tested harder. Whatever happens at 15:30, do not carry positions into Wednesday. RBI announces the repo. You have had an expiry day, a crude overhang, and a gap-down morning all stacked before the rate decision. Wednesday opens on a completely different basis. Let today settle. So today any directional position you trade, trade it with a spread. Use a hedge at least at 23,000 if you are going long and 23,500 if you are going short. That is the hedge that needs to be in.

That was the Tanmay Edge for Tuesday guys. Episode 51, weekly expiry. The picture this morning is GIFT Nifty at 23,200, Asia under pressure, crude softened to 94 from last night's spike. Opening near the lower edge of the range the chain priced for the day, 23,145 to 23,620 on the upside. Either way do not carry any positions for tomorrow. Take your hedges in place. Check for volatility for a breach above that 17 mark. If the volatility rises above 17, stay sideways. Do not enter into a high volatile expiry.

If today's breakdown helped you see the expiry clearly, share it with one trader friend who also needs those expiry lessons, it takes less than 10 seconds. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify so you don't miss the next breakdown. com, India's first investing terminal. If this episode delivered value guys leave a rating on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Five stars if you mean it. See you on Wednesday. Till then have a very happy expiry and trade safe.

## More

- Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/
- June 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-06/
- Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/
- Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record
- Previous: EP50, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-01
- Next: EP52, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-03

Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.