---
title: "Expiry Day. Buy The Dips. 24,000 Decides | The Tanmay Edge"
description: "Yesterday this market walked straight up into resistance and resistance did not break."
source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-16
episode: 61
season: 2
date: 2026-06-16
duration_seconds: 594
audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2918516/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_06_16_02_46_27_49eff468-573e-4e16-9efd-1fcfe4fecab4.mp3
grade: 4.5/5
generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML)
---

# Expiry day. Buy the dips. 24,000 decides

The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP61, Tuesday 16 Jun 2026, 9:54. Nifty 23,853.90 plus 231.00 plus 0.98 percent

## Scorecard

Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 17 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement.

The call: Expiry Buy Dips 24,000 Resistance

- HIT: the 24,000 resistance cap call, Nifty tagged 24,002.60 on the fourth test and for the first time did not run away, it closed on the number at 23,989.15 just under the cap.
- HIT: the FII back as buyer call, the foreign desk bought a second straight day in cash plus 383.79 crore on NSE.
- HIT: the volatility crush call, India VIX collapsed 6.89 percent to 13.36.
- HIT: the range call, the whole day held inside 23,888.20 to 24,002.60.
- PARTIAL: the buy the dip 23,800 to 23,750 entry, the zone never filled because the low was only 23,888.20 so the planned add never triggered. Invalidation below the band was not tested so it scores N A. Direction right, levels right, only the dip entry sat too deep. Four hits and one partial equals 4.5 out of 5, one of the cleanest reads of the run.

## Chapters

### 1. Cold open: resistance held but the buyer is back (about 0:00, estimated)

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday this market walked straight up into resistance, and resistance did not break. We opened at 23,984, touched 24,011 in the first few minutes, then spent the entire day sliding back to close at 23,853.90. Up 231 points, almost a percent, green on the screen, but a long way below where we opened.

That is not a market breaking out. That is a market running into resistance. And yet, underneath that quiet fade, the one thing I have waited two weeks for finally happened. The foreign desk that would not stop selling turned around and bought.

Today is expiry, the line is 24,000, and the buyer is back. You are listening to episode 61.

### 2. Scorecard: eP60 graded 3 of 5 (about 1:17, estimated)

Episode 60 came in 3 out of 5. The 24,000 resistance call was the cleanest read of the week. I told you that level caps the first test and you sell a piece into it, and price tagged 24,011 and got rejected to the tick.

Where I leaned too hard was buying the dip for a push through 24,000, because the day faded instead. Full breakdown is on rupeecase.com.

Hold that in your head, because today it matters.

### 3. Yesterday's tape: a gap up that faded (about 2:04, estimated)

We gapped up 360 points into the round number, and the sellers who defend 24,000 went to work. By the close we had given back 158 points off the high. The Sensex did the same, ran to 76,821 and settled at 76,264, up 0.97 percent.

The strength sat where it has all week. Autos led, Trent ran 5.35, Maruti and Mahindra both over 3, Larsen close behind, banks and the capital goods names firm. The laggards were the defensives and a tired power pack, with NTPC down 1.64.

So the rotation is still risk on, just exhausted at resistance.

### 4. The turn: the foreign seller finally covered (about 3:06, estimated)

Here is the part that changes the story. For two weeks the foreign desk was the only seller in the building, short two and a half lakh index futures and refusing to cover. Yesterday it blinked.

In the cash market the foreigners turned net buyers of 143 crore, the domestics added another 2875, and in the futures the same desk bought back 23,371 contracts. The trapped short is finally covering.

And a short that covers is not a seller, it is a buyer in disguise, it has to buy to get out. That is the fuel under this tape, and it is exactly why my read has not changed. You still buy the dips.

### 5. Overnight: Wall Street rips, crude stays quiet (about 4:15, estimated)

The overnight tape agrees. Wall Street ripped while we slept, the Nasdaq up 3.07 percent and the S&P up 1.65, a clean tech led surge. Crude, the thing that started all of this, has gone quiet, Brent sitting at 83, no fresh war headline, no spike, peace holding for now.

The rupee is firm at 94.71 and the US 10 year is at 4.48. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 23,930, right back under 24,000 for a third straight run at resistance.

And one thing to watch, our IT pack was the lone red sector yesterday, and the Nasdaq just jumped 3 percent overnight. That laggard could be today's surprise buyer.

### 6. The board: record calls at 24,000, support flips up (about 5:24, estimated)

So lay it on the expiry board. The big resistance is still 24,000, and the call writers did not blink, they piled another 87 lakh contracts onto it yesterday, and it now holds a record 1 crore 92 lakh written calls, by far the heaviest block on the board. That is the people who lose if we climb, parked right above us.

But underneath, the old sellers keep flipping to support, 23,800 and 23,700 are support now, not resistance. And the real support is far below at 23,500, where the put writers sit on 1 crore 8 lakh contracts.

The futures still hold an 18 point premium, a 4.7 percent annualised carry, which means the bulls are still paying up to stay long.

### 7. The numbers: straddle 168, switch at 23,900 (about 6:40, estimated)

Now the numbers that matter most on expiry. The at the money straddle is near 168 points, and that straddle is the market's own bet on today's move, about 168 points either way. Lay that on the close and the implied band runs roughly 23,686 to 24,022, that is where the option market expects this to settle by 3:30.

Inside that band sits the switch, the gamma flip level, near 23,900, just above us. Above that line the big option desks pin the tape and dampen the swings, below it the moves get amplified. So 23,900 is the hinge the whole day turns on.

And because it is expiry, that 168 of premium melts as the clock runs. This is a sell the premium session, not a buy the option one.

### 8. The plan: buy dips, three steps (about 8:00, estimated)

The plan is still a buy dips plan, three steps. One, do not chase the open. Yesterday the open was the high of the day, and a same day expiry punishes the chaser. Let the first excited candles settle and buy the pullback into 23,800 down to 23,750, on the sellers who flipped to support, with 24,000 as the first target.

Two, 24,000 is where you take something off, because a record 1.92 crore of written calls does not step aside on a third knock. Only a clean 15 to 30 minute hold above 24,000 opens the next leg to 24,100 and then 24,150. Three, if the open fades harder, the real buy zone is 23,700 down to 23,500, on the put writer support, and that is where strong hands add.

The continuation is only dead if we lose 23,700 for half an hour, because that breaks the switch and hands the day back to the sellers. The honest risk is 24,000 itself, freshly reinforced, a market that already failed there once can fail again and pin us back to 23,800. Trade the level, not the opinion.

## Key takeaways

- Nifty 23,853.90 plus 231.00 plus 0.98 percent
- Open 23,984.85 high 24,011.40 low 23,817.80 faded 158 off the high
- Sensex 76,264.33 plus 736.38 plus 0.97 percent high 76,821.07
- Gapped up 360 points into 24,000 then sold all day
- Autos led Trent plus 5.35 Maruti plus 3.25 M and M plus 3.01
- Larsen plus 2.99 banks and capital goods firm
- NTPC down 1.64 defensives and power pack the laggards
- IT lone red sector watch versus Nasdaq surge
- FII cash plus 143.37 cr flipped buyer DII plus 2875.26 cr
- FPI bought index futures plus 23,371 contracts OI 3,26,463
- FII still net short 2,43,623 from Friday now covering
- Resistance 24,000 record 1.92 crore written calls plus 87 lakh Monday
- 23,900 calls 97 lakh 23,950 calls 76 lakh
- Support 23,500 1.08 crore 23,700 58 lakh 23,800 38 lakh
- ATM straddle 168 implied band 23,686 to 24,022
- Gamma flip switch near 23,900 above pins below amplifies
- VIX 14 IV 14.06 percent futures basis 18.80 carry 4.68 percent
- GIFT Nifty 23,934 third run at 24,000 open near 23,930
- Nasdaq plus 3.07 S&P plus 1.65 Brent 83 quiet rupee 94.71
- US 10 year 4.48 Gold 4309 KOSPI plus 1.40

## Quotes

> That is not a market breaking out. That is a market running into resistance.
>
> The cold open on Nifty fading from a 24011 high back to 23853.90 by the close.

> Today is expiry, the line is 24,000, and the buyer is back.
>
> Framing the day after the foreign desk flipped to net buyer for the first time in two weeks.

> A short that covers is not a seller, it is a buyer in disguise, it has to buy to get out.
>
> Reading the FII covering of 23371 index futures as the fuel under the tape.

> 23,900 is the hinge the whole day turns on.
>
> On the gamma flip or switch level that decides whether desks pin or moves amplify.

> This is a sell the premium session, not a buy the option one.
>
> Because the 168 point straddle melts through a same day expiry.

> Let the crowd pay up at resistance. You wait for the dip and you let the time decay work for you, not against you.
>
> The warning against chasing the opening spike with volatility cheap at 14.

> Trade the level, not the opinion.
>
> The sign off, with 24000 the resistance, 23900 the hinge, and 23700 the line that breaks the trade.

## Transcript

Very good morning, guys. Yesterday the market walked straight up into resistance, and resistance did not break. We opened at 23,984, touched 24,011 in the first few minutes, and then spent the entire day sliding back to the close at 23,853. Up 231 points, almost a percent, green on the screen, but a long way below where we opened. That is not a market breaking out. That is a market running into resistance. And yet, underneath that quiet fade, the one thing I have waited for weeks to happen has happened.

The FIIs that would not stop selling turned around and bought some equity. Today is the expiry, the line is 24,000, and the buyer is back. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 61. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. Quick scorecard before we proceed. Episode 60 came out at 3 out of 5, that is the score we are grading it. The 24,000 resistance call was the cleanest read of the week. I told you the level caps the first test and you sell a piece into it, and the price tagged 24,011 and got rejected to the tick.

Where I leaned too hard was buying the dip for a push to 24,000, because the tape faded instead. com. Hold that in your head, because today is when it matters. Now yesterday's tape, because it sets the board for today's expiry. We gapped up 360 points yesterday into the round number, and the sellers who defended 24,000 went to work. By the close we had given back 158 points from the high. 97 percent. The strength sat where it has been all week. 35 percent, Maruti and Mahindra both up over 3 percent, L&T close behind, banks and capital goods names were firm.

64 percent. So the rotation is still risk-on, just exhausted at the resistance. But here is the part that changes the story for today. 5 lakh index futures, refusing to cover. Yesterday it blinked. In the cash market the foreigners turned net buyers of 143 crore, the DIIs added another 2,875 crores, and in the futures the same desk bought back 23,371 contracts. The trapped short is finally getting covered. And a short that covers is not a seller, it is a buyer in disguise, it has to buy to get out.

That is the fuel under this tape, and it is exactly why my read has not changed. You still buy the dips. The overnight tape also agrees with me. 65 percent, a clean tech-led surge. Crude, the thing that started all of this, has gone quiet. Brent is sitting at 83, no fresh war headlines, no spike, peace holding for now. 48. And GIFT Nifty points today to an open near 23,930, right back under 24,000 for a third straight run at resistance. And one thing to watch, our IT pack was the lone red sector yesterday and the Nasdaq jumped three percent overnight.

That laggard could be today's surprise buyer as well, keep a watch on that. So lay it on the expiry board. The big resistance stands at 24,000, and the call writers did not blink. They piled another 87 lakh contracts onto it yesterday, and it now holds a record 1 crore 92 lakh written calls, by far the heaviest block on the board. That is the people who lose if we climb, parked right above us. But underneath, the old sellers keep flipping to support.

The 23,800 and 23,700 are the support now, not the resistance. And the real support is far below that, at 23,500, where the put writers sit on a 1 crore 8 lakh contracts. 7 percent annualized carry, which means the bulls are still paying up to stay long. Now the numbers that matter most on today's expiry. The at-the-money straddle is trading near 168 points, and the straddle is the market's own bet on today's move, about 168 points either way. Lay that on the close and the implied band runs roughly, remember this level, 23,686 on the bottom end to 24,022 on the upside.

That is where the option market expects this to settle by 3:30 today. Inside that band sits the switch, the gamma flip level, near 23,900, just above us. Above that line the big option desks pin the tape and dampen the swings, below it the moves get amplified. So 23,900 is the hinge, the flip level the whole day turns on. And because it is expiry, that 168 points of premium melts as the clock runs. This is a sell-the-premium session, not an option-buy session.

Remember this. So here is the plan, guys, and it is still a buy-on-dips plan. Three steps. One, do not chase the open. Yesterday the open was the high of the day, and a same-day expiry punishes the chaser. Let the first excited candles settle and buy the pullback towards 23,800 down to 23,750, on the sellers who flipped to support, with 24,000 as the first target. 92 crore of written calls does not step aside on a third knock. Only a clean 15 to 30 minute hold above that 24,022 zone, and the next leg is 24,100 then towards that 150, where the likely expiry can happen if the breakout happens.

Three, if the open fades harder, the real buy zone is 23,700 down to 23,500, on the put-writer support, and there is where the strong hands add. The continuation is only dead if we lose 23,700 for half an hour, because that breaks the switch and hands the day back to sellers. Until then, every dip is a buy. The simpler trade, and the warning, is the same in one word. Expiry, guys. Volatility is cheap at 14, the buyer is back, and that makes chasing this morning's pop look smart.

Do not. On a same-day expiry, if you buy that opening spike and resistance rejects it, you can lose half of your premium by lunch to nothing but the clock. Let the crowd pay up at the resistance. You wait for the dip, and you let that time decay work for you, not against you. The honest risk is that 24,000 itself, freshly reinforced, a record block of calls, and a market that has already failed there once yesterday can fail again and pin us straight back to 23,800.

This is a tug of war, covering buyers pulling up from below, call writers pressing down from above, 24,000 the resistance, 23,900 the flip level, and 23,800 where the likely expiry might happen, and the clock is running out on both. Respect it. So Tuesday's expiry in one breath, guys. Resistance stopped us at 24,000, but the seller who held this market hostage for two weeks finally turned buyer, crude is quiet, Wall Street is ripping higher. The trend is up, the cover is the fuel, support is at 23,700, the flip level is 23,900.

So you buy the dips towards that 24,000 mark, take something off at the resistance, add lower if it comes. The continuation breaks only below 23,700. Call it the Buy-Dips Expiry, 24,000 Resistance trade. Trade the level, not the opinion, guys. This is The Tanmay Edge. If this helped you read the tape more clearly, share it with one trader friend who trades and needs it right now. Hit that subscribe button so you never miss a morning podcast. com, and on Apple and Spotify as well, every trading morning at 8:30.

And leave me a rating, guys, I read every single one of them. I'm waiting for your reviews. Have a great trading day, guys. See you all once again tomorrow.

## More

- Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/
- June 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-06/
- Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/
- Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record
- Previous: EP60, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-15
- Next: EP62, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-17

Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.