--- title: "24,000 Cracked, Reclaimed, Re-Floored. Now | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Tuesday the floor cracked. Wednesday Nifty reclaimed 24,000 (24,021.65, +0.83%) and Sensex 76,991.22 (+1.04%) | but on a DII rescue." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-25 episode: 68 season: 2 date: 2026-06-25 duration_seconds: 673 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/2942242/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_06_25_03_05_49_9c69f2e9-fb6f-4db1-8106-6bdb9646c878.mp3 grade: 6/8 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # 24,000 cracked, reclaimed, Re-Floored. Now Sensex expiry The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP68, Thursday 25 Jun 2026, 11:13. Nifty 24,021.65 plus 197.55 plus 0.83 percent reclaimed 24,000 ## Scorecard Grade 6/8 (75 percent): 5 hit, 2 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 29 Jun 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Sensex Weekly Expiry PCR Flip Writers Rebuild The Floor - HIT: the gap up into the 77,000 to 77,500 wall, opened 77,391 ran to 77,803 and the wall rejected it fading 700 points to close 77,100. - HIT: holding above 77,000 all day low 76,993 then extending to 77,803 before writers defended. - HIT: the 1SD box 76,470 to 77,510 with the close 77,100 well inside. - HIT: the 24,000 Nifty floor which never broke low 24,039 and grew to the biggest put wall at 1.25 crore. - HIT: the falling vol structural read, VIX bled to 13.05 crude near 70 cushion held rupee firmer 94.40. - PARTIAL: the expiry pin, character was right pin not trend but writers held it about 600 points above the called max pain 76,500 closing 77,100 a bullish skew so the precise level was wrong. - PARTIAL: the FII lone seller framing, FII flipped to a mild cash buyer plus 384 and covered 5244 shorts so the cover branch fired and the tape held green but with no big squeeze capped at the wall. N/A the lose 76,500 fade to 76,000 conditional which never triggered as the floor held. Direction right structure right the one tight level max pain ran high. The put writer floor call was the standout holding all day and remaining the biggest line into the monthly expiry. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: the floor they lost, the writers rebuilt (about 0:00, estimated) A very good morning, guys. Two days ago the support cracked. Tuesday, on expiry, Nifty lost 24,000 and Sensex broke 76,200, and I sat here and told you the broken floor was now the resistance. Sell the rallies. Then Wednesday happened. And the market did the one thing I said would flip it. It reclaimed the level and held. Nifty closed 24,021. Sensex closed 76,991. But here is the part nobody on your feed is telling you. While the price was climbing back through 24,000, the option writers were quietly rebuilding the exact floor they lost on Tuesday. The data shows you who actually believes this bounce. Today is Sensex expiry. This is The Tanmay Edge. ### 2. The reclaim: a gap down that found a buyer and never looked back (about 1:14, estimated) Start with the close, because the close tells the story. Nifty 24,021.65, up 197 points, plus 0.83 percent. It opened gap down at 23,795, below Tuesday's close, dropped to 23,789, and then spent the entire session climbing. It closed near the high of the day. That is not a nervous bounce. That is a session that found a buyer at 23,789 and never looked back. Sensex did the same thing, 76,991.22, up 790 points, plus 1.04 percent. It reclaimed almost everything Tuesday took. Thirty of the Nifty 50 stocks closed green, and IT led the rebound, the same sector that got routed on Tuesday's Korea chip rout. ### 3. The flows: a domestic rescue while the foreigners kept leaving (about 2:22, estimated) But who did the buying? Because it was not the foreigners. Here are the official numbers. On Wednesday the FIIs sold 1,541 crore of cash on the NSE while the DIIs bought 2,715 crore. On the combined exchanges it is even starker, FIIs minus 1,843 crore, DIIs plus 3,637 crore. So the rebound that reclaimed 24,000 was a domestic rescue. The locals bought the dip the foreigners were handing them. That is the second day in a row the DII desk has carried this market. And the foreigners did not just sell cash. Their net short in index futures went from 2,28,561 contracts on Tuesday to 2,29,053 on Wednesday. Into a 1 percent rally, they deepened the hedge. That is a desk protecting a long stock book and refusing to chase. ### 4. The education: the writers rebuilt the floor they lost (about 3:43, estimated) Now the number that changed my mind about the bounce. On Tuesday, when 24,000 cracked, the 30 June Nifty chain had a put call ratio of 0.78. Call heavy. Bearish. The biggest open interest sat on the call side at 24,000, the broken floor as a wall of overhead supply. That is what I built Tuesday's call on. By Wednesday's close, that same chain had a PCR of 1.21. It flipped. The single biggest open interest in the entire chain is now the 24,000 put, 1.21 crore contracts sitting there as a floor. Put writers added 44 lakh contracts at 23,900, another 29 lakh at 23,800, and stacked deep tail puts at 22,500 and 22,000. Max pain pulled right back to 24,000. Here is the lesson. A put writer only sells a 24,000 put if they are willing to buy the index at 24,000. When the PCR flips from 0.78 to 1.21 in one session and the open interest piles up under the reclaimed level, that is the smart money voting the floor is real. A reclaim the writers refuse to fund is a trap. A reclaim they rebuild under is a floor. And the pros agree, the Pro segment flipped from net short on Tuesday to net long 8,441 contracts on Wednesday. ### 5. Sensex expiry: gapping up straight into the Wall (about 5:49, estimated) Now today. Sensex weekly expiry, zero days to go. The GIFT Nifty is pointing to a gap up of about 83 points near 24,106, which means Sensex opens near 77,250, and that is the problem, because it opens us straight into the wall. Overhead, the call writers are stacked at 77,000, then 77,500, then a heavy 78,000. That 77,000 to 77,500 band is the immediate battle. Underneath, put support sits at 76,500, then 76,000, then the real floor at 75,000. Max pain is around 76,500. India VIX has cooled to 13 from Tuesday's 14, so volatility is bleeding out. On a zero day expiry, falling volatility plus a price pinned near the writers' strikes means theta and gamma do the work, not direction. The one standard deviation move is about 520 points, call it 76,470 to 77,510. The dealers are long gamma inside that box, so every push gets sold back to the middle. The runaway move only comes on a clean break above 77,500 or below 76,000. ### 6. The macro: a two event day with core PCE tonight (about 7:34, estimated) One more layer, because today is a two event day. After our market closes the United States releases its Core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation number, plus durable goods and the final first quarter GDP. A hot PCE keeps the hawkish Fed exactly where it is. And you have seen what that has already done. Gold cracked below 4,010 to a seven month low, silver fell almost 5 percent, crude dropped over 4 percent to around 70 dollars, even Bitcoin is at a two week low. A strong dollar is vacuuming money out of everything at once. For us the crude crack is the silver lining, because 70 dollar oil is a gift to an importer like India. But the rupee is still soft at 94.86 on dollar strength. A friendly crude tailwind, a hostile dollar headwind, and an inflation print nobody wants to be caught naked in front of. ### 7. The plan: respect the pin, watch 77,000 (about 9:05, estimated) So here is how I am reading the day. Above 77,000 and holding, the reclaim extends toward 77,300 and 77,500, and that is where the call writers defend. Lose 76,500 and the gap up was a relief rally, we fade back toward 76,000. Inside 76,500 to 77,000 it is an expiry pin, and on a zero day expiry you respect the pin. You do not carry a naked position into a falling volatility expiry with a US inflation print waiting on the other side. The floor that cracked on Tuesday got reclaimed on Wednesday, and the writers rebuilt it underneath. Today the question is simple. Does the gap up confirm the reclaim, or does it run out of room at the wall? Watch 77,000. The whole day lives there. ### 8. Sign off: a long weekend ahead (about 10:22, estimated) That is the tape behind the chart you got earlier. If you like this podcast, give it a rating, I am waiting for your reviews. Listen live and first on rupeecase.com, where it streams first, and also on Apple and Spotify. Subscribe so you do not miss a single session on every trading day. Remember, Friday the 26th is a market holiday, so the next session is Monday the 29th. This was Tanmay, signing off. See you all again after a long weekend, on Monday. ## Key takeaways - Nifty 24,021.65 plus 197.55 plus 0.83 percent reclaimed 24,000 - Opened gap down 23,795 low 23,789 closed near the high - Sensex 76,991.22 plus 790 plus 1.04 percent - Breadth 30 of the Nifty 50 closed green IT led the rebound - FII cash minus 1541 crore DII plus 2715 crore on NSE - Combined FII minus 1843 crore DII plus 3637 crore - FII index futures short 2,28,561 to 2,29,053 added into the rally - 30 June Nifty PCR flipped 0.78 to 1.21 in one session - Biggest open interest now the 24,000 put 1.21 crore contracts max pain 24,000 - Put writers added 44 lakh at 23,900 and 29 lakh at 23,800 - Deep tail puts stacked at 22,500 and 22,000 - Pro segment flipped net short to net long 8441 contracts - GIFT Nifty plus 83 pointing near 24,106 Sensex opens near 77,250 - Sensex call walls 77,000 then 77,500 then 78,000 - Sensex put support 76,500 then 76,000 real floor 75,000 - India VIX cooled to 13 from 14 volatility bleeding out - One SD Sensex move about 520 points 76,470 to 77,510 - Core PCE durable goods and final Q1 GDP from the US tonight - Gold below 4010 a 7 month low silver minus 5 percent crude near 70 dollars - Rupee soft 94.86 below 95 Friday 26 a holiday next session Monday 29 ## Quotes > A reclaim the writers refuse to fund is a trap. A reclaim they rebuild under is a floor. > > The education segment, on reading the option chain to confirm whether a reclaim is real. > The locals bought the dip the foreigners were handing them. > > On the flows, where DIIs carried the rebound while FIIs sold cash a second day running. > Into a 1 percent rally, they deepened the hedge. > > On the FII index futures short climbing from 2,28,561 to 2,29,053 contracts on an up day. > The price chart will tell you the what. But the option writers tell you whether it is real. > > The lesson behind the put call ratio flipping from 0.78 to 1.21 in one session. > We are gapping up into a call wall on the one day those calls expire. > > On the Sensex expiry geometry, opening near 77,250 into the 77,000 to 77,500 band. > On a zero day expiry, you respect the pin. > > The plan, on not carrying a naked position into falling volatility before Core PCE. > Watch 77,000. The whole day lives there. > > The close, framing the single level that decides today's session. ## Transcript A very good morning, guys. Two days ago, the support cracked. Tuesday, on expiry, Nifty lost 24,000 and Sensex broke 76,200, and I sat here and told you the broken floor, the support, was now the resistance. And sell the rallies. And then Wednesday happened. And the market did the one thing I said would flip it: it reclaimed the level and held it. Nifty closed at 24,021. Sensex closed at 76,991. But here's the part nobody on your feed is telling you right now, while the price was climbing back through 24,000, the option writers were quietly rebuilding the exact support they lost on Tuesday. The data shows you who actually believes this bounce. Today's Sensex expiry. Let me show you how the tape has built the chart. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 68. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So, starting with the close, because the close tells you the story. 83%. It opened gap-down at 23,795, below Tuesday's close, and exactly the support level which we told you yesterday. Dropped to 23,789, and then spent the entire session climbing. It closed near the day's high. That is not a nervous bounce. That is a session that found a buyer at 23,800 and never looked back. 04%. It reclaimed almost everything it gave back on Tuesday. 30 of the Nifty 50 stocks closed in green. IT led the rebound, the same sector that got routed on Tuesday's Korea chip rout was the one that pulled us back. But, and this is the whole game, who did the buying? Because it was not the FIIs. So here are the official numbers. On Wednesday, the FIIs sold almost 1,843 crores while DIIs bought 3,637 crores. So the rebound that reclaimed 24,000 was a domestic rescue. The locals bought the dip the FIIs were handing them. That is the second day in a row that DIIs have carried the market on its way back. And the FIIs didn't just sell cash. Look at the futures, guys. The FII net short in index futures went from 2,28,561 contracts on Tuesday to 2,29,053 on Wednesday. They added to the short, into a 1% rally. They deepened the hedge, and that is where we are not looking in. That is the stock futures: they have built a huge stock position underlying that hedge. That is the desk that is not convinced. That is the desk that is protecting its long stock book and refusing to chase it. Now hold that thought, because the next number is the one that changed my mind about that bounce. 78. Call-heavy. That is extremely bearish. The biggest open interest sat on the call side at 24,000, the broken support had become a resistance of overhead supply. That's what I built Tuesday's call on. 21. It had flipped completely. 21 crore contracts of open interest sitting there as the support. And the build-up tells you it happened in one day: put writers added 44 lakh contracts at 23,900, another 29 lakh contracts, and stacked deep tail puts down to 22,500 and 22,000 as well. So max pain pulled right back to the 24,000 strike, that was the expectation, where the market should close back, and where the magnet, the pinning, should happen. And here is the lesson, and write this one down. When a level breaks and then gets reclaimed, the price chart will tell you the what. But the option writers tell you whether it's real or not. A put writer is someone selling insurance. They only sell a 24,000 put if they are willing to buy the index at 24,000. 21 in a single session, and the open interest piles up under the reclaim level, that is not retail noise. That is the smart money voting that the floor, the support, is real. A reclaim that the writers refuse to fund is a trap. A reclaim that the writers rebuild under, that's the support. Wednesday, they built it. So the pros agree as well, by the way. In the participant data, the pro segment flipped from net short on Tuesday to a net long of 8,500 contracts in index futures on Wednesday. The clients are still long. The DIIs are long. Only the FIIs are still short, and that's the tension that walks us into today. So now let's get back to today's expiry. Sensex weekly expiry. And the GIFT Nifty is pointing to a gap-up of around 24,100, plus 83 points, which means Sensex opens this morning somewhere near 77,200 to 77,300. And that is the problem, because that opens us straight into the resistance. Here are the Sensex levels for expiry today. Overhead, the call writers are stacked at 77,000, then 77,500, then a heavy resistance at 78,000. That 77,000 to 77,500 band is the immediate battle, and a gap-up open lands us right inside it. It is 0DTE. Underneath, the put support sits at 76,500 and then 76,000. Then the real floor is much below. Max pain is sitting around that 76,700 to 76,500 mark. So read the geometry. We are gapping up into a call wall, a resistance, on a day those calls are going to expire. India VIX has cooled back towards 13 from Tuesday's 14 levels. So the volatility is bleeding out. And that matters, because on a 0DTE, falling volatility plus a price pinned near the writers' strikes means theta and gamma do the work, not the direction. The one-standard-deviation expected move on Sensex today is about 520 points, call it 76,470 to 77,510. That is the range I am playing for today. That's a tight box. The expiry wants to pin, not trend. Remember that, guys. The gamma confirms it. With heavy open interest stacked both above at 77,000 and below at 76,500, the dealers are long gamma inside that range, which means every push gets sold back towards the middle. The amplified, runaway move only comes if we break clean above 77,500 or clean below that 76,500 mark. Inside that box, expect a choppy session today and a pinning happening towards that 77,000 range. Outside it, expect speed and a rally once again. One more layer, guys, because today is a two-day event. After our market closes, and tomorrow we have a holiday, so tomorrow the markets are closed, the United States releases its Core PCE, the Fed's favorite inflation number, plus durable goods and the final first-quarter GDP. A hot PCE keeps the hawkish Fed exactly where it is. And you have seen what that has already done: gold has cracked below the 4,010 mark to a 7-month low, silver fell almost 5%, crude dropped over 4% to around $70, even Bitcoin is at a 2-week low. A strong dollar is vacuuming money out of everything at once. For us, that crude crack is a silver lining, because $70 oil is a gift to an importer like India. It eases the import bill and the inflation math. 86, below that 95 mark, on dollar strength. So the setup is a friendly crude tailwind, a hostile dollar headwind, and a US inflation print tonight that nobody wants to be caught naked in front of. So here's how I am reading the day. Above 77,000 and holding, the reclaim extends, momentum towards that 77,300 and 77,500 mark, and that's where the call writers will defend. Losing 76,500, the gap-up was a relief rally, and we fade back towards that 76,000 mark. Inside 76,500 to 76,700 and upwards towards 77,000 is an expiry pin, so expect the expiry to happen towards that 77,000 mark. And on a zero-day expiry, you respect the pin. You do not carry a naked position into falling volatility with a US inflation print waiting on the other side. So the floor that cracked on Tuesday got reclaimed on Wednesday, and the writers rebuilt it underneath again. Today the question is simple: does the gap-up confirm the reclaim, or does it run out of room at the resistance? Watch 77,000, the whole day lives there. That's the tape behind the chart. You just got earlier, guys. And if you like this podcast, give it a rating, I'm waiting for your reviews as well. com, where it streams first, and also on Apple and Spotify. And don't miss to subscribe to the podcast, because then you won't miss a single session on every trading day. This was Tanmay, signing off. See you all once again, after a long weekend, on Monday. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - June 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-06/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP67, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-24 - Next: EP69, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-06-29 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.