--- title: "24,400 Held To The Point. Crude Broke The | The Tanmay Edge" description: "- One Sector Held The Whole Market Up. This Morning Crude Broke The Calm.- The Map Nailed 24,400. Now A Gap-Down Meets TCS And Sensex Expiry.- 19 Of 50 Went" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-08" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP76 # 24,400 held to the point. Crude broke the calm. War is back. TCS decides Thursday Nifty 24,398.70 minus 31.65 minus 0.13 percent snapped a four day green run * **10:59**listen * **2/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 8 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing 24,400 held to the point. Crude broke the calm. War is back. TCS decides Thursday EP76, 8 Jul, 10:59 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:59 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 2/5 at settlement. **2/5**40% **The call.** Mean Reversion Range 24,100 To 24,500 Floor 24,000 Crude Shock Global Risk Off IT Holds The Tell * **2**Hit * **0**Partial * **1**Mechanical * **2**Miss Graded against the 9 Jul 2026 session; on the public trail from 10 Jul 2026. 1. **Hit**the IT tell, Nifty IT down 1.37 percent versus the index down 2.12 percent kept the TCS bet alive. Two hits two misses one never armed, the lesson locked was do not deploy dip buys into the air pocket below the gamma flip on a shock driven gap down. 2. **Hit**the IT tell, Nifty IT down 1.37 percent versus the index down 2.12 percent kept the TCS bet alive. Two hits two misses one never armed, the lesson locked was do not deploy dip buys into the air pocket below the gamma flip on a shock driven gap down. 3. **Hit**the IT tell, Nifty IT down 1.37 percent versus the index down 2.12 percent kept the TCS bet alive. Two hits two misses one never armed, the lesson locked was do not deploy dip buys into the air pocket below the gamma flip on a shock driven gap down. 4. **Hit**the IT tell, Nifty IT down 1.37 percent versus the index down 2.12 percent kept the TCS bet alive. Two hits two misses one never armed, the lesson locked was do not deploy dip buys into the air pocket below the gamma flip on a shock driven gap down. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 2. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 3. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 4. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 5. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 6. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 7. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 8. **08**POV and plan: trade the edges, stand asideWe are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to Cold open: settled 1.3 points off 24,400, then the calm broke overnight **24,398.70**Nifty settled **24,400**Defended all week **24,230**GIFT Nifty Yesterday the market did something that looks like luck and is not. Nifty settled at 24,398.70. The level every options desk had defended all week was 24,400. We closed 1.3 points away from it. And the day before one of the biggest results of the season, a Read the chapter Yesterday's settle: a gentle snap after a four day green run **24,400**Settle almost exactly **78,180.72**Told the same story The official close: Nifty 24,398.70, down 31.65, about a tenth of a percent. That snapped a four day green run, and it snapped gently. The day traded in a band of just 182 points. The high was 24,530.90, so it reached up and touched the 24,500 ceiling, got Read the chapter The one sector that mattered: IT held it up alone into TCS **2.43 percent**Barely moved, IT rose **3.04 percent**HCL Tech **2.86 percent**Percent, Tech Mahindra **2.81 percent**Percent, Infosys Only 19 of the 50 Nifty names went up. On a day the index barely moved, IT rose 2.43 percent, and it rose alone. HCL Tech up 3.04 percent, Tech Mahindra up 2.86 percent, Infosys up 2.81 percent, TCS itself up 1.86 percent. That is the whole green column. Read the chapter What the desks did: pros cautious, foreigners stopped covering **5,435**Flat, net long **45,315**Insurance back, net long **2,38,838**Index at minus **2,56,900**Short went Pro desks first, because they move first. Into Tuesday's expiry they had dropped their protection. Yesterday they did the opposite. They cut index futures almost to flat, net long just 5,435 contracts, and bought insurance back, net long 45,315 puts. The fast Read the chapter The new map: 24,400 gravity, 24,500 ceiling, 24,300 and 24,200 support **24,400**Center of gravity **51 lakh**Traders piled **24,300**Below us **24,200**Below us Because yesterday was expiry, we have a fresh map for next week. The center of gravity is 24,400, right where we settled. Overhead, 24,500 is the ceiling and a heavy one. Traders piled on 51 lakh fresh calls there yesterday, the single biggest build anywhere Read the chapter This morning's overlay: crude at 76 and a risk off globe **24,400**Open near below **24,200**Support shelf None of that map was built for what walked in overnight. Crude is up sharply, Brent back to 76 dollars, up about two and a half percent, as geopolitical tension pushes back into the tape. New York closed soft, Nasdaq off more than a percent, and Asia opened Read the chapter The real test is tomorrow: Sensex expiry and TCS in one session Everything today points at tomorrow. Thursday is a double event in one session, Sensex weekly expiry and TCS first quarter results on the same day. That is why yesterday's IT move matters so much. The entire rush into IT was a bet placed before the number. If TCS delivers, the bet pays and IT extends. If it disappoints, that same crowd unwinds it fast, and it drags. Wednesday, today, is the day you set your position Read the chapter POV and plan: trade the edges, stand aside in the middle **24,300**Opening below **24,100**Range is wider, roughly **24,500**Wider, roughly **24,000**Rule out stretch We are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 24,500, and if the selling has legs do not rule out a stretch to 24,000. This is a day you trade the edges, not the middle. On a push up into 24,400 to Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: settled 1.3 points off 24,400, then the calm broke overnight Yesterday the market did something that looks like luck and is not. Nifty settled at 24,398.70. The level every options desk had defended all week was 24,400. We closed 1.3 points away from it. And the day before one of the biggest results of the season, a single sector woke up and carried the whole market on its back while everything else quietly bled. But wake up this morning and the picture has changed. GIFT Nifty is at 24,230, down two thirds of a percent, pointing at a gap down open below the 24,400 they spent all week defending. Crude is jumping, the world is turning risk off, and the calm we kept calling cheap is finally getting tested. This is not the quiet reset I expected. Tomorrow is still the real test. ### *02*Yesterday's settle: a gentle snap after a four day green run The official close: Nifty 24,398.70, down 31.65, about a tenth of a percent. That snapped a four day green run, and it snapped gently. The day traded in a band of just 182 points. The high was 24,530.90, so it reached up and touched the 24,500 ceiling, got rejected, and drifted back to settle almost exactly on 24,400. All week the map said 24,400 was the support and 24,500 the ceiling. We closed 1.3 points off 24,400. The map did not miss. On the eight calls we made, six landed. Sensex told the same story, 78,180.72, down 104, a quiet pinned expiry. ### *03*The one sector that mattered: IT held it up alone into TCS Only 19 of the 50 Nifty names went up. On a day the index barely moved, IT rose 2.43 percent, and it rose alone. HCL Tech up 3.04 percent, Tech Mahindra up 2.86 percent, Infosys up 2.81 percent, TCS itself up 1.86 percent. That is the whole green column. Everything else leaned red. Realty down 1.58 percent, Metal down 1.10 percent, Pharma down 0.73 percent, Reliance down 1.12 percent, Larsen down 1.19 percent. Take IT out and this is a clearly red day. The timing is the point. IT had faded three straight sessions coming in, and TCS reports tomorrow. The day before the biggest IT result of the quarter, the money rushed back into IT. That is not a coincidence. That is positioning. Somebody is placing a bet before the number. ### *04*What the desks did: pros cautious, foreigners stopped covering Pro desks first, because they move first. Into Tuesday's expiry they had dropped their protection. Yesterday they did the opposite. They cut index futures almost to flat, net long just 5,435 contracts, and bought insurance back, net long 45,315 puts. The fast money stepped off the gas and put its seatbelt back on the night before the event. The foreign desk is still deeply net short the index at minus 2,38,838 contracts, but the pace tells the story. Their short went 2,56,900 to 2,50,767 to 2,41,279 to 2,38,838. The covering has almost stopped. Underneath, in single stock futures they are net long 6,03,692 and added again. Long the shares, short the index against them, a hedged long book, not a bearish call. On cash, foreign desks bought 468 crore, still a buyer. The crowd, last. Clients are net long 1,64,159 index futures and still short 5,14,896 puts. That barely moved. The crowd is fully leaned into the range holding. If support cracks, that is the fuel that lights. ### *05*The new map: 24,400 gravity, 24,500 ceiling, 24,300 and 24,200 support Because yesterday was expiry, we have a fresh map for next week. The center of gravity is 24,400, right where we settled. Overhead, 24,500 is the ceiling and a heavy one. Traders piled on 51 lakh fresh calls there yesterday, the single biggest build anywhere on the board. Below us, 24,300 and 24,200 are the two support shelves, each holding about 28 lakh puts and building. The gear change is 24,400. Above it, moves get dampened and the market tends to pin. Below it, moves speed up and pull toward 24,300. The options are pricing a swing of about 270 points for the week, an expected band roughly 24,130 to 24,670. Near week volatility is still cheap, under 10 percent. The calm has not broken. ### *06*This morning's overlay: crude at 76 and a risk off globe None of that map was built for what walked in overnight. Crude is up sharply, Brent back to 76 dollars, up about two and a half percent, as geopolitical tension pushes back into the tape. New York closed soft, Nasdaq off more than a percent, and Asia opened lower. Korea down hard, Japan only mildly red, Hong Kong actually green, so Asia is off its worst. GIFT Nifty points to an open near 24,230, below the 24,400 gear change and just under the 24,300 support shelf, with 24,200 sitting right beneath. The market may open already testing the levels that change its character. A jumpy crude and a nervous globe are not the backdrop you want going into a double event. ### *07*The real test is tomorrow: Sensex expiry and TCS in one session Everything today points at tomorrow. Thursday is a double event in one session, Sensex weekly expiry and TCS first quarter results on the same day. That is why yesterday's IT move matters so much. The entire rush into IT was a bet placed before the number. If TCS delivers, the bet pays and IT extends. If it disappoints, that same crowd unwinds it fast, and it drags. Wednesday, today, is the day you set your position, not the day you swing it. ### *08*POV and plan: trade the edges, stand aside in the middle We are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today the range is wider, roughly 24,100 to 24,500, and if the selling has legs do not rule out a stretch to 24,000. This is a day you trade the edges, not the middle. On a push up into 24,400 to 24,500, sell the rise, and do not wait for the round number. Offer a touch under it, around 24,475 to 24,485, and you are filled before the crowd. On a flush down into 24,000 to 24,100, buy it, but bid just above the round figure, around 24,015 to 24,110, because the whole market is stacked on 24,000. The middle, 24,200 to 24,300, is no man's land, so stand aside. Do not build a heavy directional position into tomorrow's double event. Let IT lead you. If it holds the bid today, the bet on TCS is alive. We run the RupeeCase book on the same discipline, no chasing, next rebalance early August, and you can track it live on rupeecase dot com. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty 24,398.70 minus 31.65 minus 0.13 percent snapped a four day green run * *02*Day range just 182 points high 24,530.90 rejected at the 24,500 ceiling * *03*Settled 1.3 points off 24,400 the level defended all week map graded 6 of 8 * *04*Sensex 78,180.72 minus 104 a quiet pinned expiry * *05*Only 19 of 50 Nifty names advanced IT the whole green column * *06*IT plus 2.43 percent alone HCL Tech plus 3.04 Tech Mahindra plus 2.86 Infosys plus 2.81 TCS plus 1.86 * *07*Realty minus 1.58 Metal minus 1.10 Pharma minus 0.73 Reliance minus 1.12 Larsen minus 1.19 * *08*IT faded three straight sessions then money rushed back the day before TCS * *09*Pro index futures cut to net long 5,435 almost flat into the event * *10*Pro added put protection to net long 45,315 the seatbelt back on * *11*FII index futures short 2,38,838 covering pace slowed from 2,56,900 * *12*FII single stock futures net long 6,03,692 added again a hedged long book * *13*FII cash net buyers plus 468 crore still a buyer * *14*Crowd net long 1,64,159 index futures still short 5,14,896 puts barely moved * *15*New map center of gravity 24,400 ceiling 24,500 support 24,300 and 24,200 * *16*24,500 the biggest build 51 lakh fresh calls in one session * *17*24,300 and 24,200 support shelves about 28 lakh puts each * *18*Straddle pricing about 270 points expected band 24,130 to 24,670 * *19*Near week volatility under 10 percent the calm not yet broken * *20*GIFT Nifty 24,230 minus 0.63 percent gap down Brent 76.00 plus 2.48 percent USD INR 94.96 Show all 20 05In his words We settled 1.3 points away from it. The map did not miss. A single sector woke up and carried the entire market on its back while everything else quietly bled. Somebody is placing a bet before the number. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,469 words, about 7 min to read A very good morning guys. Yesterday the market did something that looks like luck and it is not. It settled at 24,399, and the level every option desk has been defending all week was 24,400. We settled one point away from it. And then, the day before one of the biggest results of the season, a single sector woke up and carried the entire market on its back while everything else was bleeding. But wake up this morning and the picture has changed completely. GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,230, down two-thirds of a percent, a gap down below 24,400 and 24,300 as well, the levels they spent all week defending. Crude is jumping, the world is turning risk off, and the calm we kept calling cheap is finally getting tested. This is not the quiet reset I expected. Tomorrow is still the real test. This is the turn. This is The Tanmay Edge. Good morning guys, it is Wednesday, 8th of July. One sector held the market up yesterday, and overnight crude and geopolitics stole the story back. So let's go. So the official close for yesterday: Nifty closed at 24,399, down 31 points, about a tenth of a percent. That snapped a four-day green run, and it snapped gently. The day traded in a band of just 182 points. The high was 24,530, so it reached up and touched the 24,500 resistance ceiling, got rejected, and drifted back down to settle almost exactly on 24,400, before a last 30-minute VWAP sell-off towards that 350 level. So here is the part worth sitting with. All week, the option chain said 24,400 was the support, the sellers of the puts would defend it, and 24,500 was the resistance. So we closed one point off 24,400. The map did not miss. That is yesterday's map graded, and I will give you the honest number once: on eight calls we made, six landed. Six out of eight. Sensex told the same story guys, 78,180, down 104 points, a quiet pinned day. Now the strange part: only 19 of the 50 names went up on a day the index barely moved. 43 percent, and it rose alone. 86 percent. That is the whole green column basically. Everything else leaned red. 73 percent, Reliance, L&T, every heavyweight name on the block was down more than a percent. The index only fell a fraction of a percent, because IT physically held it up. Take IT out of yesterday and this is clearly a red day. And the timing is the point. IT had faded for three straight sessions coming in. TCS reports tomorrow for the quarter. So the day before the biggest IT result of the quarter, the money rushed back into IT. That is not a coincidence, that is positioning, and a bounce happening from the lows of the IT index. Somebody is placing a bet before the number cracks in. So who moved and how. The pro desk first, because they move first. Into Tuesday's expiry the pros had dropped their protection. Yesterday they did the opposite. By closing, they cut their index futures position almost to flat, down to net long of just 5,435 contracts, and they bought back insurance, adding put protection to net long 45,315 puts. Read that together: the fast money stepped off the gas and put its seatbelt on the night before tomorrow's event. That is caution, guys, and that is a quiet caution that is happening. The foreign desk, they are still deeply net short the index, sitting at minus 2,38,838 contracts. But look at the pace: their shorts went from 2,60,000 to 2,56,000 to 2,50,000 to 2,41,000 and now 2,38,838. The covering has almost stopped. And underneath that, in single stock futures, they are net long 6 lakh contracts, and they added to it again yesterday. So long the shares, short the index against them. That is a hedged long book, not a bearish call. And on the cash side, official numbers, FII bought 468 crore of stock yesterday, still a buyer. The crowd, or the retail clients, last: clients are net long 1,64,159 index futures and still short 5 lakh puts. So that number has barely moved. The retail is still fully leaned into a range holding while the market is rallying, which means if the support even cracks, that is exactly the pile of fuel that lights up. So putting it in one line: the pros are cautious, the foreigners stopped covering, and the retail did not blink and maintained their long stance. Because yesterday was expiry, we have a fresh map for the next week. The center of gravity has shifted to 24,400, right where we settled. Overhead we have 24,500, which is the resistance, and it is a heavy one. Traders piled on 51 lakh fresh calls there yesterday, the single biggest build-up anywhere on the board. Below us, 24,300 and 24,200 are the two support levels, each holding about 28 lakh puts that have been written over there. The gear change is about the 24,400 level. Above it, moves get dampened and the market tends to pin, that is your gamma flip level. Below it, moves speed up and pull towards that 24,300 to 24,200, and it happens extremely fast. We are sitting right on the switch. The options are pricing a swing of around 270 points for the week, that is where the straddle is trading, so roughly between 24,125 and 24,670 is what the market is pricing. And near-week volatility is still cheaper, almost under 10, below the weeks behind it. The calm has not broken yet, but today it can change completely. But none of this map was built for what walked in overnight. Crude is up sharply, Brent back to 76 dollars, up about two and a half percent, as geopolitical tensions push back into the option chain. New York closed soft, Nasdaq off more than a percent, and Asia opened lower, Korea down hard, though Japan is only mildly red and Hong Kong is actually green, so Asia is off its worst. So GIFT Nifty is pointing us to an open towards 24,230, below that 24,400 gear change and just under the 24,300 support shelf we just talked about, with 24,200 sitting right beneath it. In other words, the market may open the day already testing the levels that change its character. A jumpy crude and a nervous globe are not the backdrop you want going into a double event. That matters for how you carry the risk today. So everything today points at tomorrow. Thursday is a double event in one session: it is Sensex weekly expiry and TCS starts the result season. That is why yesterday's IT move mattered so much. The entire rush into IT was a bet placed before the numbers start coming in. If TCS delivers, the bet pays and the IT pack can extend. If it disappoints, that same crowd unwinds fast and it drags. Wednesday today is the day you set your positions, not the day you swing it. So the plan and POV for today is simple guys. We are opening below 24,300, so throw out yesterday's tight box. Today's range is wider, roughly around 24,125 to 24,500, and if the selling has legs, do not rule out a stretch down to 24,000 as well. This is a day you trade the edges, not the middle. So on a push into 24,400 to 24,500, which might happen by close, sell the rise, and do not wait for the round numbers, that is where everyone else is resting their orders. Offer a touch under it, around 24,475 to 24,485, and you are filled before the crowd. On a flush down, or the market coming down to 24,125, that is your buy zone, so 24,125 to 24,200, buy it, because the whole market is stacked on 24,000 and you want to be ahead of them, and the stop loss should be 24,000. The middle, 24,200 to 24,300, is no-man's land, that is where you will get chopped up, so try to mean revert your play between that range. So do not build a heavy directional position into tomorrow's double event, that is the mistake the pros just told you not to make by stepping aside themselves, and let IT lead you. Also, the VWAP currently stands at 24,185, so roughly around that 24,200 range is what we are expecting the mean to be for this week. com as well. That's your edge for today guys. If this added value, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. I am building RupeeCase, India's systematic investing terminal, link is present in the show notes you just got earlier. See you all tomorrow once again, on Sensex expiry. Questions ## EP76, in plain words. What does EP76 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP76, Wednesday 8 Jul 2026, 10:59, in 8 chapters: Cold open: settled 1.3 points off 24,400, then the calm broke overnight; Yesterday's settle: a gentle snap after a four day green run; The one sector that mattered: IT held it up alone into TCS; What the desks did: pros cautious, foreigners stopped covering; The new map: 24,400 gravity, 24,500 ceiling, 24,300 and 24,200 support; This morning's overlay: crude at 76 and a risk off globe; The real test is tomorrow: Sensex expiry and TCS in one session; POV and plan: trade the edges, stand aside in the middle. How did the calls in EP76 score?Grade 2/5 (40 percent): 2 hit, 0 partial, 1 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded against the 9 Jul 2026 session. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. Explore next ## Learn what the episode covers. * [Free module 6.9Gold, Commodities, and International Investing for Indian Investors8 min read](/learn/path-6/module-6-9-gold-commodities-international) * [StrategyHealthcare Basket strategyNifty MidSmall Healthcare, 10 stocks, every week](/strategies/healthcare-basket) * [Free module 7.4INR, FII Flows, and Global Market Linkages10 min read](/learn/path-7/module-7-4-inr-fii-flows-global-linkages) * [Free module 1.3Indices & Benchmarks13 min read](/learn/path-1/module-1-3-indices-and-benchmarks) Community ## Join my WhatsApp group. Scan the code, fillFill one short form, and join my WhatsApp group. Slides, sources, factsheets and the rebalance logs live there, and members join a daily Google Meet with me. [Sign up for RupeeCase](https://invest.rupeecase.com/signup) [Join the WhatsApp group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7) [One form, one group](https://forms.gle/C6HMtM1Z2GfeocQV7)Scan with your phone camera 07Read next ## Behind the calls. [Learn, module 2.3Risk Metrics That MatterEvery strategy shows you a CAGR. Fewer show you the drawdown. Almost none explain what the Sharpe ratio actually means.Intermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-2/module-2-3-risk-metrics-that-matter)[Learn, module 6.6Derivatives: Futures and Options for the Systematic InvestorThe F&O market in India is one of the largest derivatives markets in the world by volume. Most retail participants loseIntermediate, 8 min](/learn/path-6/module-6-6-derivatives-futures-options) [StrategyEnergy Basket10 stocks from CNX Energy, rotated weekly. The thematic satellite.Model, back tested CAGR 33.1%, as of 27 Apr 2026. Risk High.](/strategies/energy-basket) Share [X](https://x.com/intent/tweet?text=24%2C400%20held%20to%20the%20point.%20Crude%20broke%20the%20calm.%20War%20is%20back.%20TCS%20decides%20Thursday%20%7C%20The%20Tanmay%20Edge%20EP76&url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-07-08) [LinkedIn](https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/share-offsite/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.rupeecase.com%2Fpodcast%2Fepisodes%2F2026-07-08) Copy link [All episodes](/podcast/) Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser. Strategy figures are model, back tested.