--- title: "Nifty Broke 24,000 Support, Down 516 | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Yesterday the calm broke. The Nifty fell 516 points, or 2.12 percent, to close at 23,882, its worst day in weeks, with only 4 of 50 stocks green. The Sensex" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-09" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP77 # Nifty broke 24,000 support, down 516 points. Smart money bought the fall. Sensex expiry and TCS Q1 today Nifty fell 516 points minus 2.12 percent to close 23,882 the worst day in weeks * **9:57**listen * **3/5**graded at settlement * **Thu 9 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Nifty broke 24,000 support, down 516 points. Smart money bought the fall. Sensex expiry and TCS Q1 today EP77, 9 Jul, 9:57 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes9:57 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 3/5 at settlement. **3/5**60% **The call.** FII Hedged Long Short Index Long Stocks Gap Up Open 24,000 Flips To Resistance Sensex Expiry Pin 76,500 TCS Q1 IT To Lead * **2**Hit * **3**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 10 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Partial**the wildcards, oil capped the tape but IT lagged as the day's worst sector into TCS instead of leading. Two clean hits and three partials, three out of five, direction right but the pin and the IT lead missed. 2. **Partial**the wildcards, oil capped the tape but IT lagged as the day's worst sector into TCS instead of leading. Two clean hits and three partials, three out of five, direction right but the pin and the IT lead missed. 3. **Partial**the wildcards, oil capped the tape but IT lagged as the day's worst sector into TCS instead of leading. Two clean hits and three partials, three out of five, direction right but the pin and the IT lead missed. 4. **Partial**the wildcards, oil capped the tape but IT lagged as the day's worst sector into TCS instead of leading. Two clean hits and three partials, three out of five, direction right but the pin and the IT lead missed. 5. **Partial**the wildcards, oil capped the tape but IT lagged as the day's worst sector into TCS instead of leading. Two clean hits and three partials, three out of five, direction right but the pin and the IT lead missed. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 2. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 3. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 4. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 5. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 6. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 7. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 8. **08**The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 Cold open: 516 points gone and the big money still bought **516 points**Yesterday the Nifty fell **2.12 percent**Nifty fell points **23,882**Percent, to close **23,805**All the way The news first. Yesterday the Nifty fell 516 points, down 2.12 percent, to close at 23,882. Forty five of the fifty stocks were red. The 24,000 mark every desk watched broke, and we dropped all the way to 23,805. Now the twist. On that red day, the big money Read the chapter The grade: buy the dip was wrong, but IT holding kept the TCS trade alive One honest line on yesterday's call. I said range bound, buy the dip. Wrong. Oil spiked and the market fell straight through it. The one thing I got right, IT held up. And that is exactly what keeps the TCS trade alive into today. Read the chapter Yesterday's tape: VIX up 25 percent is the number that matters **25 percent**India VIX, jumped almost **14.54**One day **6.68 percent**Bond yield, stayed Start with the damage. Nifty down 516, 2.12 percent. Sensex down 1,677, 2.15 percent. Only 4 green stocks out of 50. Now the number that matters most. The fear index, India VIX, jumped almost 25 percent in one day to 14.54. All week it sat near 11. Now it is Read the chapter Why we fell: one word, oil **5 percent**Brent jumped almost **2 percent**Fell percent, Japan fell **95.56**Rupee slipped Why did we fall? One word. Oil. Brent jumped almost 5 percent to 78 dollars on an Iran and Hormuz scare. When oil spikes, the world sells, and India cannot sit it out. Korea fell 5 percent, Japan fell 2 percent, and the rupee slipped to 95.56. The move came Read the chapter This morning: a gap up open carrying a headwind **99 points**GIFT Nifty **0.41 percent**Nifty is up points **23,975**Gap up open **300 points**Should open This morning looks better. GIFT Nifty is up 99 points, 0.41 percent, pointing to a gap up open near 23,975 on the Nifty. On the same math the Sensex should open up about 300 points, near 76,800. Asia turned green, Japan up 2 percent and Korea up 1.7 percent Read the chapter The options data: pros hedged long, the crowd short puts **10,201**Net long **2,68,586**Funds are short **5,77,555**Also long **1,87,155**Crowd, is long Now the heart of it. This is where you see what the big players actually did, not what the news said. The pros first, the sharpest desks. They are net long about 10,201 index futures, and they also bought put options as insurance. Careful, not scared. The Read the chapter The tell: IT held alone into its own TCS result **1.37 percent**Barely moved **2.5 percent**Flat, while banks fell Here is the clue for today. Yesterday almost everything fell, but IT barely moved, down just 1.37 percent. Infosys was down only 0.21 percent, nearly flat, while banks fell 2.5 percent. And IT reports today. TCS first quarter results land this session. The Read the chapter The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000, let TCS lead **76,503**Sensex closed **76,800**Should open **77,000**Call selling sits **76,000**Biggest support Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 and should open near 76,800. The biggest call selling sits at 77,000, that is resistance, with 77,500 above it. The biggest support is 76,000, and Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: 516 points gone and the big money still bought The news first. Yesterday the Nifty fell 516 points, down 2.12 percent, to close at 23,882. Forty five of the fifty stocks were red. The 24,000 mark every desk watched broke, and we dropped all the way to 23,805. Now the twist. On that red day, the big money did not sell. Foreign funds and domestic funds together bought almost 2,753 crore of stock in the cash market. Price crashed, and smart money added. That gap is today's whole story. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 77. Two big events land in one session today, Sensex expiry and TCS results. ### *02*The grade: buy the dip was wrong, but IT holding kept the TCS trade alive One honest line on yesterday's call. I said range bound, buy the dip. Wrong. Oil spiked and the market fell straight through it. The one thing I got right, IT held up. And that is exactly what keeps the TCS trade alive into today. ### *03*Yesterday's tape: VIX up 25 percent is the number that matters Start with the damage. Nifty down 516, 2.12 percent. Sensex down 1,677, 2.15 percent. Only 4 green stocks out of 50. Now the number that matters most. The fear index, India VIX, jumped almost 25 percent in one day to 14.54. All week it sat near 11. Now it is near 15. Simple meaning, option prices went up and the daily swings get bigger from here. One quiet number that did not panic, the Indian 10 year bond yield, stayed at 6.68 percent. Barely moved. So this was not a banking or a debt problem. It was an oil and fear selloff in stocks. ### *04*Why we fell: one word, oil Why did we fall? One word. Oil. Brent jumped almost 5 percent to 78 dollars on an Iran and Hormuz scare. When oil spikes, the world sells, and India cannot sit it out. Korea fell 5 percent, Japan fell 2 percent, and the rupee slipped to 95.56. The move came from outside, not from anything broken at home. ### *05*This morning: a gap up open carrying a headwind This morning looks better. GIFT Nifty is up 99 points, 0.41 percent, pointing to a gap up open near 23,975 on the Nifty. On the same math the Sensex should open up about 300 points, near 76,800. Asia turned green, Japan up 2 percent and Korea up 1.7 percent after crashing yesterday. US futures flat to slightly up. The panic cooled while we slept. One catch. Oil is still climbing, Brent 78.87, and the rupee is still weak near 95.56. So we open higher, but with a headwind. ### *06*The options data: pros hedged long, the crowd short puts Now the heart of it. This is where you see what the big players actually did, not what the news said. The pros first, the sharpest desks. They are net long about 10,201 index futures, and they also bought put options as insurance. Careful, not scared. The foreign funds are short about 2,68,586 index futures, which looks bearish, but they are also long 5,77,555 single stock futures. That is more than two long bets in stocks for every one short on the index. So it is a hedge, not a bet on a crash. Retail, the crowd, is long 1,87,155 futures and has sold 6,28,922 put options. If support at 23,800 breaks, those sold puts start losing, the crowd rushes to cover, and that pushes the market down faster. Big money is hedged and buying. The crowd is exposed. ### *07*The tell: IT held alone into its own TCS result Here is the clue for today. Yesterday almost everything fell, but IT barely moved, down just 1.37 percent. Infosys was down only 0.21 percent, nearly flat, while banks fell 2.5 percent. And IT reports today. TCS first quarter results land this session. The market quietly kept its bet on IT even while it sold everything else. Today we find out if that bet pays. ### *08*The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000, let TCS lead Today's main event is Sensex weekly expiry, so here is the exact plan, not a vague range. Sensex closed 76,503 and should open near 76,800. The biggest call selling sits at 77,000, that is resistance, with 77,500 above it. The biggest support is 76,000, and 76,500 in the middle is the magnet. The straddle is priced near 780 points, the swing the market expects either side. The stance is the key. On a normal expiry you sell options and collect premium because price sticks to the magnet. Not today. With VIX up 25 percent into expiry, the magnet is weak and price can run. So do not blindly sell. Sell into 77,000, buy near 76,000, and skip the chop in the middle. Trade the edges. On the Nifty the map flipped. 24,000 was support all week and is now resistance, with 24,200 above and support at 23,800, then a fast gap to 23,700. The plan is light and patient. If retail starts buying back those 6,28,922 sold puts while the pros stay long, that is the green signal for a push toward 24,100. TCS is the wild card, and oil near 79 is the leash. Do not guess before the number. Let IT lead. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty fell 516 points minus 2.12 percent to close 23,882 the worst day in weeks * *02*Only 4 of 50 Nifty stocks closed green 45 in the red * *03*Sensex fell 1,677 points minus 2.15 percent to close 76,503 * *04*India VIX jumped almost 25 percent in one day to 14.54 from near 11 all week * *05*Brent crude up almost 5 percent to 78 dollars on the Iran and Hormuz scare * *06*Korea fell 5 percent Japan fell 2 percent the rupee slipped to 95.56 * *07*Indian 10 year bond yield held 6.68 percent barely moved not a debt problem * *08*The 24,000 support broke the intraday low printed 23,805 * *09*Foreign funds bought 1,962.80 crore domestic funds added 790.16 crore both buyers * *10*Pros net long about 10,201 index futures with put protection careful not scared * *11*Foreign desks short 2,68,586 index futures but long 5,77,555 single stock futures * *12*More than two long stock bets for every one short index a hedge not a crash bet * *13*Retail long 1,87,155 futures and short 6,28,922 puts exposed if 23,800 breaks * *14*GIFT Nifty up 99 points plus 0.41 percent points to a gap up open near 23,975 * *15*Sensex seen opening near 76,800 up about 300 points on the global bounce * *16*Sensex chain resistance 77,000 then 77,500 support 76,000 magnet 76,500 * *17*At the money Sensex straddle priced near 780 points the expected swing today * *18*IT fell just 1.37 percent Infosys minus 0.21 percent while banks fell 2.5 percent * *19*Nifty 24,000 flipped from support to resistance 24,200 above support 23,800 then 23,700 * *20*Nifty week priced for a 380 point swing a range of 23,500 to 24,260 Show all 20 05In his words On that red day, the big money did not sell. I said range bound, buy the dip. Wrong. Why did we fall? One word. Oil. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,237 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. The news first. 12 percent. It closed at 23,882. Forty five of the fifty stocks were in red. The 24,000 mark everyone was watching broke, and we dropped all the way to 23,805. Now the twist. On that red day, the big money did not sell. FIIs and DIIs together bought almost 2,753 crore of stock in the cash market. Price crashed, smart money added, and that gap is today's whole story. This is The Tanmay Edge, Episode 77. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Two big events play out today, Sensex expiry and the TCS results. Let us go straight to the data. One honest line on yesterday's call, guys. I said range bound, buy the dip. Wrong. Oil spiked and the market fell straight through it. The one thing I got right is that IT held up, and that is what keeps the TCS trade alive today. What the numbers say today is very important. 12 percent. 15 percent. Only 4 green stocks out of 50. 54. All week it had sat near 11. Now it is near 15. Simple meaning, option prices went up and the daily swings get bigger from here. Why did we fall? One word, oil. Brent jumped almost 5 percent to 78 dollars on an Iran and Hormuz scare. When oil spikes, the world sells, and India cannot sit it out. Korea fell 5 percent, Japan fell 2 percent. 56. 68 percent, barely moved. So this was not a banking or a debt problem. It was an oil and fear selloff in the stocks. Keep that in mind. So this morning looks better. 41 percent. That points to a gap up open near 23,975 on the Nifty. And on the same map, the Sensex should open up about 250 to 300 points, near 76,800. 7 percent after crashing yesterday. US futures are also flat to slightly up overnight. So the panic has cooled while we slept. 56. So we open higher, but the headwind is present, remember that. Now the options data. The options and the futures data is where you see what the big players actually did, not what the news said. The pros first, the sharpest desks. They are net long about 10,201 future contracts, and they also bought put options as insurance. Careful, not scared. The foreign funds are short about 2,68,586 index futures. That looks bearish, but they are also long 5,77,555 single stock futures. So that is more than two long bets in stocks for every one short on the index. So it is a hedge, not a bet on a crash. And the retail crowd is completely long, 1,87,155 futures long, and has sold 6,28,922 put options. The crowd is betting the market holds here. If the support at 23,800 breaks, those sold puts start losing, they rush to cover it, and that pushes the market down faster. So reading it simply, guys, the retail crowd is trapped. They are still short almost 6 lakh put contracts which should get stopped out in the down move. The pros have bought insurance on the downside, the FIIs are still short the index and going long on the stocks, so that is the tension going into today. And here is the clue for today, guys. 37 percent. 21 percent, nearly flat. 5 percent. And IT reports today, TCS first quarter results, this session. The market quietly kept its bet on IT while everything else sold off. Today we find out if that bet pays off or not. Now today's main event, Sensex weekly expiry. Let me give you the exact plan, not just a range. Where we open, Sensex closed at 76,503 and should open near 76,800 on a global bounce. The level from the option chain, the biggest call selling sits at 77,000, that is your resistance today. Above it, 77,300 and 77,500 is the next resistance. The biggest support is present at 76,500, and then below it at 76,000. The middle, 76,500, is the magnet, the level the market wants to settle at. That is today's expiry, expected around 76,500. That is the expected move. The at the money straddle is priced around 780 points. That is the swing the option market expects today on either side. Add it on the chain and you get roughly 76,000 to 77,300 on the upside. So that is a huge range for today. Now the stance, and this is the key. On a normal expiry you sell options and collect that premium, because price sticks to the magnet. Not today. VIX has jumped massively yesterday, IVs are up, and when fear is rising into an expiry the magnet gets weak and the price can run away from it. So do not blindly sell options. Today's expiry is not going to be easy. Here is the trade, guys. If we open near 76,800 and push up to 77,000, that is the resistance, sell into it, the call sellers will defend that line. If we fall towards 76,200 or 76,000, that is the support, cover your shorts and watch out for a bounce. The middle, near 76,500, is just chop out region. Trade the edges, skip the middle part of the whole zone. 76,200 to 76,000 is your buy zone, 77,000 to 77,300 is your sell zone. Today the market is going to swing between these levels. Quick on the Nifty for the swing traders as well. The map flipped. 24,000 was support all week. Now it stands as the resistance, the biggest call wall sits there, and 24,200 above it. Support is present at 23,800, and below that a fast gap towards 23,600 level. The options market is pricing about a 380 point swing this week, a range of almost 23,500 on the downside to 24,300 on the upside. Simple stance, 24,000 is the resistance, sell into it, so 24,000 to 24,200 is your selling zone, sell on rise buy on dip. At 23,800 levels, if you hold 23,800 we can push higher, lose 23,800 and 23,600 is coming fast. So the plan for today. Here is how I am trading it, light and patient, because two events land at once. One, Sensex expiry, trade the edges, sell near 77,000 to 77,300, buy near 76,200, skip the middle range. Two, watch the crowd for the turn. If the retail starts buying back those 6,28,922 sold puts while the pros stay long, that is a green signal for a push back towards 24,100 to 24,200 on the Nifty. Three, TCS is a wild card and oil is on a leash. A strong TCS result can pull the whole market up, a weak one brings the fear back, and oil near 79 caps how far we can bounce. So do not guess before the result, let it lead you. Have a great Thursday, guys, and a great expiry. One broken level, one quiet foreign bid, one sector that held into its own result. Trade the expiry edges, respect 24,000 as a resistance and 77,000 as a resistance, and let TCS lead you. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, guys, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give me a rating, guys, and a review if you want to add something to this podcast. See you all, and have a happy expiry. Questions ## EP77, in plain words. What does EP77 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP77, Thursday 9 Jul 2026, 9:57, in 8 chapters: Cold open: 516 points gone and the big money still bought; The grade: buy the dip was wrong, but IT holding kept the TCS trade alive; Yesterday's tape: VIX up 25 percent is the number that matters; Why we fell: one word, oil; This morning: a gap up open carrying a headwind; The options data: pros hedged long, the crowd short puts; The tell: IT held alone into its own TCS result; The expiry plan: sell 77,000, buy 76,000, let TCS lead. How did the calls in EP77 score?Grade 3/5 (60 percent): 2 hit, 3 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 10 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 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