--- title: "The Breakout The FIIs Finally Backed, Into | The Tanmay Edge" description: "On Friday we finally broke out. Then over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-13" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP79 # The breakout the FIIs finally backed, into a weekend crude shock. Why the 24,000 gap down is a dip to buy Nifty closed 24,206 up 1.02 percent the first close above 24,200 in the move * **9:32**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Mon 13 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The breakout the FIIs finally backed, into a weekend crude shock. Why the 24,000 gap down is a dip to buy EP79, 13 Jul, 9:32 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes9:32 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** FIIs Covered 11,540 Shorts And Bought 2603 Cr Weekend Hormuz Crude Shock Buy The 24,000 Dip Reclaim 24,200 Grind 24,300 Max Pain 24,200 Straddle 197 HCL Q1 The Swing * **4**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 14 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Partial**the 24,300 grind, price stopped at the 24,200 pin and the 24,300 stretch went untagged. Four and a half out of five, the whole spine buy 24,000 hold the tick IT leads back to 24,200 played out, only the 24,300 extension missed. 2. **Partial**the 24,300 grind, price stopped at the 24,200 pin and the 24,300 stretch went untagged. Four and a half out of five, the whole spine buy 24,000 hold the tick IT leads back to 24,200 played out, only the 24,300 extension missed. 3. **Partial**the 24,300 grind, price stopped at the 24,200 pin and the 24,300 stretch went untagged. Four and a half out of five, the whole spine buy 24,000 hold the tick IT leads back to 24,200 played out, only the 24,300 extension missed. 4. **Partial**the 24,300 grind, price stopped at the 24,200 pin and the 24,300 stretch went untagged. Four and a half out of five, the whole spine buy 24,000 hold the tick IT leads back to 24,200 played out, only the 24,300 extension missed. 5. **Partial**the 24,300 grind, price stopped at the 24,200 pin and the 24,300 stretch went untagged. Four and a half out of five, the whole spine buy 24,000 hold the tick IT leads back to 24,200 played out, only the 24,300 extension missed. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 2. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 3. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 4. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 5. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 6. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 7. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only 8. **08**The exit and the grade: five out of five onA plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only Cold open: Friday we broke out, the weekend closed hormuz **4 percent**Morning crude **24,000**Open lower On Friday we broke out. Over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near 24,000. Sounds scary. It is not. This is a dip you buy, not one you sell, and in the next few minutes I will show you Read the chapter Friday the tape: the broadest green day of the week **24,206**Nifty closed **1.02 percent**Nifty closed **24,200**First close above **8 percent**India VIX fell another Nifty closed 24,206 up 1.02 percent, the first close above 24,200 in the whole move. Sensex 77,569 up 1.08 percent. India VIX fell another 8 percent to 12.25, a fresh low. Realty led up 3.49 percent, PSU Bank up 3, Bank Nifty up 1.39, IT up 1.96 off the TCS Read the chapter The twist: the big money finally bought it with us **2,603**Cash the FIIs bought **2,020**DIIs added **11,540**Buying back **37,617**Buying back shorts, covering For the first time in a week the big money bought it with us. In cash the FIIs bought 2,603 crore, their first real buy in a while, and the DIIs added 2,020 crore. Both hands buying. In futures the FIIs covered. They were short 2,66,251 index contracts and cut Read the chapter The weekend shock: hormuz closed, crude gaps four percent **4 percent**Brent jumped **200 points**Open near roughly Then the weekend threw a rock through the window. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck a third straight night, and Washington revoked the Iranian oil waiver. About a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. Crude was one of the Read the chapter Three reasons to buy it: contained crude, falling gold, the put Wall **1 percent**Gold fell more **4,072**More than percent **24,000**Lands you right That gap down is a level the market is handing you, not taking away. One, crude jumped but stopped under 80. This market can digest 79 dollar crude, what it cannot digest is 90. Under 80 the shock has a ceiling. Two, look at gold. Gold fell more than 1 percent Read the chapter Who stands at 24,000: the put writers defend the strike **12.25**Add VIX **24,000**Actually standing **6,29,518**Clients are short **1,74,916**Pros are long Add a VIX at 12.25 and you have cheap insurance and a firm floor. Think about who is actually standing at 24,000. The Clients are short 6,29,518 index puts, they are the put writers, and put writers defend the strike they sold. The Pros are long 1,74,916 calls Read the chapter The chain and the plan: buy 24,000, reclaim 24,200, grind 24,300 **24,200**Tuesday expiry, max pain **23,800**Lakh put wall **24,500**Hard wall **141 lakh**Hard wall From the 14 July chain into Tuesday expiry, max pain 24,200 sits right on Friday's close. Support is 24,000, that 105 lakh put wall, then 23,800. Resistance is 24,300 at 94 lakh calls, then the hard wall 24,500 at 141 lakh calls. PCR 1.27, put heavy and Read the chapter The exit and the grade: five out of five on Friday **24,000**Clean break below **23,800**Next shelf **2 percent**Led up almost **1.45**Percent and TCS added A plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only happens if crude runs over 80 or a fresh strait headline hits. Below it I stand aside, I do not average down, the next shelf is 23,800, and I hold the Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: Friday we broke out, the weekend closed hormuz On Friday we broke out. Over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up 4 percent and we open lower near 24,000. Sounds scary. It is not. This is a dip you buy, not one you sell, and in the next few minutes I will show you exactly why and exactly where. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 79. A news podcast with a twist, and the read is simple, buy the 24,000 dip. ### *02*Friday the tape: the broadest green day of the week Nifty closed 24,206 up 1.02 percent, the first close above 24,200 in the whole move. Sensex 77,569 up 1.08 percent. India VIX fell another 8 percent to 12.25, a fresh low. Realty led up 3.49 percent, PSU Bank up 3, Bank Nifty up 1.39, IT up 1.96 off the TCS beat, Metal up 1.48. Midcaps and Smallcaps up over 1.4 each. Out of the entire board, only FMCG closed red. The broadest green tape of the week. ### *03*The twist: the big money finally bought it with us For the first time in a week the big money bought it with us. In cash the FIIs bought 2,603 crore, their first real buy in a while, and the DIIs added 2,020 crore. Both hands buying. In futures the FIIs covered. They were short 2,66,251 index contracts and cut it to 2,54,711, buying back 11,540 shorts, covering 37,617 short calls, and trimming puts while adding stock longs. Be honest, they covered, they did not flip, they are still net short 2,54,711. But the direction is clear, the lid is coming off, not going on. ### *04*The weekend shock: hormuz closed, crude gaps four percent Then the weekend threw a rock through the window. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck a third straight night, and Washington revoked the Iranian oil waiver. About a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait. Crude was one of the three legs Friday's rally stood on, so this morning the shock showed up. Brent jumped 4 percent to 79 dollars, WTI the same. GIFT Nifty is down about 205 points, pointing to an open near 24,000, roughly 180 to 200 points below Friday's close. ### *05*Three reasons to buy it: contained crude, falling gold, the put Wall That gap down is a level the market is handing you, not taking away. One, crude jumped but stopped under 80. This market can digest 79 dollar crude, what it cannot digest is 90. Under 80 the shock has a ceiling. Two, look at gold. Gold fell more than 1 percent to 4,072. In real fear money runs into gold, today it is walking out. That is a positioning wobble, not a panic. Three, the gap down lands you right on 24,000, the single biggest put wall on the board at 105 lakh puts, where the FIIs covered and the clients are writing puts. The dip is delivering you to support, not through it. ### *06*Who stands at 24,000: the put writers defend the strike Add a VIX at 12.25 and you have cheap insurance and a firm floor. Think about who is actually standing at 24,000. The Clients are short 6,29,518 index puts, they are the put writers, and put writers defend the strike they sold. The Pros are long 1,74,916 calls and 1,22,524 puts at the same time, sitting on the fence, ready to move. Nobody who matters is leaning hard short into 24,000. ### *07*The chain and the plan: buy 24,000, reclaim 24,200, grind 24,300 From the 14 July chain into Tuesday expiry, max pain 24,200 sits right on Friday's close. Support is 24,000, that 105 lakh put wall, then 23,800. Resistance is 24,300 at 94 lakh calls, then the hard wall 24,500 at 141 lakh calls. PCR 1.27, put heavy and supportive, straddle near 197, so the expected move is about 24,010 to 24,405. The plan is simple, buy the dip. I am a buyer of the 24,000 to 23,950 zone with a stop, targeting the reclaim of 24,200 then a grind to 24,300. The tell in the first hour is a reclaim of 24,100 with IT holding green off the HCL Tech number. Get both and the base case is on. ### *08*The exit and the grade: five out of five on Friday A plan without an exit is just hope. The invalidation is a clean break below 24,000 on volume, which only happens if crude runs over 80 or a fresh strait headline hits. Below it I stand aside, I do not average down, the next shelf is 23,800, and I hold the 23,800 put as insurance. Keep the hedge on with VIX at 12.25. Friday, episode 78, went five out of five. We called the gap up over 24,000, the hold, the grind to the 24,200 cap, and IT as the swing. All of it landed, IT led up almost 2 percent and TCS added 1.45. Have a great week. One breakout the FIIs finally backed, one weekend crude shock, one gap down that drops you right onto 24,000. Buy the dip. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty closed 24,206 up 1.02 percent the first close above 24,200 in the move * *02*Sensex 77,569 up 1.08 percent India VIX fell 8 percent to 12.25 a fresh low * *03*Realty led up 3.49 percent PSU Bank up 3 IT up 1.96 off the TCS beat * *04*Only FMCG closed red the broadest green tape of the week * *05*FIIs bought 2,603 crore cash DIIs added 2,020 crore both hands buying * *06*FIIs cut the index short from 2,66,251 to 2,54,711 buying back 11,540 * *07*FIIs covered 37,617 short calls and trimmed puts taking the lid off * *08*Still net short 2,54,711 covered not flipped but the direction is clear * *09*Clients short 6,29,518 index puts the put writers who defend 24,000 * *10*Pros long 1,74,916 calls and 1,22,524 puts sitting long gamma * *11*Weekend Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed US struck a third night * *12*Brent gapped 4 percent to 79 dollars GIFT Nifty down about 205 points * *13*Gold fell more than 1 percent to 4,072 fear walking out not in * *14*Open near 24,000 the biggest put wall on the board at 105 lakh puts * *15*Max pain 24,200 support 24,000 then 23,800 into Tuesday expiry * *16*Resistance 24,300 at 94 lakh calls hard wall 24,500 at 141 lakh * *17*PCR 1.27 put heavy straddle 197 expected move 24,010 to 24,405 * *18*Plan buy 24,000 to 23,950 reclaim 24,200 grind 24,300 * *19*Invalidation a clean break below 24,000 on volume next shelf 23,800 * *20*EP78 graded five out of five HCL Tech Q1 the swing today Show all 20 05In his words This is a dip you buy, not one you sell. The big money finally bought it with us. They covered, they did not flip. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,316 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. On Friday we broke out. Over the weekend someone closed the Strait of Hormuz, and this morning crude is up by 4 percent and we are opening almost 200 points lower. Sounds scary, right? It is not. This is a dip you buy, not one you sell. And in the next few minutes, I will show you exactly why and exactly where. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 79. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you Friday first. 02 percent, the first close above 24,200 in the last 10 days in this whole move. 08 percent. 25, a fresh low. 96 percent off the TCS beat. Out of the entire board, only FMCG closed red. Everything else was green. And here is what made Friday different from every update last week. The big money finally bought it with us. I have the NSE participation data. In the cash, the FIIs bought 2,603 crore, their first real buy in a while, and the DIIs added 2,020 crore on top of it. Both hands buying. In futures, the FIIs covered. They were short 2,66,000 index contracts, they cut it to 2,54,000, they bought back almost 11,540 contracts, covered 37,617 short calls as well, and trimmed their puts. So every leg, they took the lid off. Now to be honest with you, they covered, they did not flip it. Remember this, guys, they are still net short 2,54,000 index contracts. But the direction is clear. The lid is coming off, not going on. Then the weekend threw a rock through the window. Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, the US struck for the third straight night, and Washington revoked the Iranian oil waiver. About a fifth of the world's oil moves through that strait, and crude was one of the three legs Friday's rally stood on. So this morning, that shock showed up on the screen. Brent jumped 4 percent to 79 dollars, WTI also the same. And GIFT Nifty is down about 205 points, pointing to an open near 24,000, roughly 180 to 200 points below Friday's close. So yes, we are gapping down almost a percent. Now here is the whole episode in one idea. That gap down is a level the market is handing you, not taking away. Three things tell me to buy it, not sell it. One, crude jumped, but it stopped under 80. That is a contained spike, not a runaway. This market can digest 79 dollar crude. What it cannot digest is 100, 120, and 140. As long as Brent holds under that 80, 85 mark, the shock has a ceiling. And people have started to understand that this war is not going to go away fast. Two, look at the gold. Gold fell this morning, down more than a percent to 4,072. When there is real fear, money runs into gold. Today it is walking out of gold. That is not panic. That is a positioning that we are seeing. Three, where does the gap down actually land you? Right on 24,000. And 24,000 is the single biggest put support on the board, 105 lakh puts are present over there. It is where the FIIs covered on Friday, and it is where the clients are writing the puts. That is the buy zone by the book. The dip is delivering you the support, not through it. 25 and you have cheap insurance and a firm support that is present. And think about who is actually standing at 24,000. The clients are short 6,29,000 index puts, they are the put writers, and put writers defend the strike they sold. But clients are going to pay for it, the gap down is going to hit their stop losses. Nobody who matters is leaning hard short into 24,000. So let me give you the chain and then the exact plan. This is the 14 July data from the BhavCopy. Tuesday, tomorrow, is the expiry, so max pain stands at 24,100 to 24,200, sitting right where Friday closed. Support stands at 24,000, has 105 lakh puts present, then 23,800. 41 crore calls, the heaviest on the board. 27, still positive, tilted to the put side, which is supportive. The straddle is around 197, so the market is pricing a move of roughly 23,970 on the bottom end to around 24,380 on the upside into the expiry. So here is my plan, guys, and my view is very simple. Buy the dip. We open near 24,000, into the put support. I am a buyer of the 24,000 to 23,950 zone, which is the first level the market should hit, with a stop, looking for a reclaim of 24,200. Holding 24,000 and taking back 24,200, positive gamma kicks in and we grind towards that 24,300 level. That is my base case for the day, because 24,200 is your flip zone, so 24,150 to 200 is the gamma flip level. Now the one thing that changes my mind, because a plan without an exit is just hoping the market bounces back, and that is not the case. A clean, sustained break below 23,950 is what I am watching for. That only happens if crude keeps running over 80 dollars or a fresh headline hits over the strait. So while going long, I am buying 23,800 puts as a protection. So if 24,000 goes on real volume, gamma flips negative, the move gets fast, and I stand aside. I do not average down. The next shelf below is 23,800. So the line is precise. About 24,000, I am a buyer below it. On volume, I am out of the trade, and rather than being out, I am holding those insurances of the 23,800 put. So here is the tell that the dip is working. In the first hour, I want to see us reclaim 24,100, and I want IT holding green off the HCL number. Get both and the buyers are in control, the base case is on, we press towards 24,200 and 24,300. If you are stuck under 24,000 for an hour in, with crude pushing higher, then respect the dip has become a trend, and you wait for 23,840 to 23,800 levels getting hit. The swing factors today are two. HCL Tech reports Q1 numbers, IT's second test after the TCS beat. A good number cushions the dip. And crude, keep one eye on whether crude stays under 80 or not. And keep the hedge on, guys. 25, protection is cheap, and there is a live crude event running. Cheap volatility plus an open geopolitical risk is exactly when you hold your hedge, not when you sell it for a few rupees. Quick scorecard on Friday, guys. Episode 78, we called it clean. Gap up over 24,000, hold the level, grind to the 24,200 cap, and I told you IT was the swing that decides the break. All of it landed. 45 percent, so the index ground straight up to close 24,206, 7 points off the 24,200 target. Five out of five. com. Have a great week, guys. One breakout the FIIs finally backed, one weekend crude shock, and one gap down that drops you right onto 24,000. Buy the dip, target 24,200 then 24,300, not without buying the insurance at 23,800. That is the put you buy only if you are going long, not a naked put. Contained crude and falling gold tells you the sellers do not have conviction. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, guys, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. Subscribe to Apple Podcasts and Spotify, and give it a rating, guys, and a review if you want to add something to the podcast. See you all once again tomorrow on Nifty Expiry. Questions ## EP79, in plain words. What does EP79 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP79, Monday 13 Jul 2026, 9:32, in 8 chapters: Cold open: Friday we broke out, the weekend closed hormuz; Friday the tape: the broadest green day of the week; The twist: the big money finally bought it with us; The weekend shock: hormuz closed, crude gaps four percent; Three reasons to buy it: contained crude, falling gold, the put Wall; Who stands at 24,000: the put writers defend the strike; The chain and the plan: buy 24,000, reclaim 24,200, grind 24,300; The exit and the grade: five out of five on Friday. How did the calls in EP79 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 14 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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