--- title: "24,000 Held To The Tick A Second Day But | The Tanmay Edge" description: "On the screen yesterday looked calm. Nifty slipped two thirds of a percent, but 24,000 held to the tick for the second day running and closed 24,052, pinned" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-15" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP81 # 24,000 held to the tick a second day but the pros just cut their bet and FII turned defensive Buy dips with a hedge Nifty closed 24,052 down 159 points 0.66 percent holding 24,000 to the tick a second day * **10:06**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 15 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing 24,000 held to the tick a second day but the pros just cut their bet and FII turned defensive EP81, 15 Jul, 10:06 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:06 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** Buy The 24,000 Dip With A Hedge Third Day Pros Cut Long Calls 1,52,000 To 48,000 FII Index Short 2,65,000 Plus 44,000 Puts Clients Short 6,29,000 Puts At 24,000 Resistance 24,100 Then 24,200 Then 24,300 Hard Wall 24,500 Support 23,900 Then 23,800 Box 23,850 To 24,260 Sensex Expiry Thu Cap 77,500 Pivot 77,000 Range 76,500 To 77,500 Crude 86 VIX 13.75 Rising * **4**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **0**Miss Graded the next trading day, 16 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. 1. **Partial**on protection, Brent holding 86 and IT bleeding both landed but India VIX fell 3.5 percent to 13.27 rather than rising as called, and the bank pairing inverted. Four and a half out of five, the best since EP78. The levels were right and the hold was not. Two repeat lessons logged: never couple IT and domestic banks in one clause, and never pair a rising VIX with a buy the dip. 2. **Partial**on protection, Brent holding 86 and IT bleeding both landed but India VIX fell 3.5 percent to 13.27 rather than rising as called, and the bank pairing inverted. Four and a half out of five, the best since EP78. The levels were right and the hold was not. Two repeat lessons logged: never couple IT and domestic banks in one clause, and never pair a rising VIX with a buy the dip. 3. **Partial**on protection, Brent holding 86 and IT bleeding both landed but India VIX fell 3.5 percent to 13.27 rather than rising as called, and the bank pairing inverted. Four and a half out of five, the best since EP78. The levels were right and the hold was not. Two repeat lessons logged: never couple IT and domestic banks in one clause, and never pair a rising VIX with a buy the dip. 4. **Partial**on protection, Brent holding 86 and IT bleeding both landed but India VIX fell 3.5 percent to 13.27 rather than rising as called, and the bank pairing inverted. Four and a half out of five, the best since EP78. The levels were right and the hold was not. Two repeat lessons logged: never couple IT and domestic banks in one clause, and never pair a rising VIX with a buy the dip. 5. **Partial**on protection, Brent holding 86 and IT bleeding both landed but India VIX fell 3.5 percent to 13.27 rather than rising as called, and the bank pairing inverted. Four and a half out of five, the best since EP78. The levels were right and the hold was not. Two repeat lessons logged: never couple IT and domestic banks in one clause, and never pair a rising VIX with a buy the dip. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 2. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 3. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 4. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 5. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 6. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 7. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 8. **08**The plan and the scorecard: buyer aboveThe plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200 Cold open: buy dips a third day, but keep the insurance on **24,000**Thirds of percent **24,052**Running, and it closed On the screen yesterday looked calm. Nifty slipped two thirds of a percent, but 24,000 held to the tick for the second day running, and it closed 24,052, pinned right between the walls. But the official positioning dropped last night and it tells a different Read the chapter Yesterday the tape: crude ran past 86, but 24,000 held again **159 points**Nifty fell **24,052**Nifty fell points **77,055**Sensex fell **24,023**Again, the low Crude was the whole story. Brent ran past 86 dollars on the Hormuz standoff and the market slipped with it. Nifty fell 159 points to 24,052, the Sensex fell 561 to 77,055. But 24,000 held to the tick again, the low was 24,023, and the close pinned between Read the chapter Overnight: the tone improved, chips turned, crude stalled **0.9 percent**Nasdaq closed **24,046**GIFT Nifty **96.20**Still soft In America a cooler inflation number lifted the market, the Nasdaq closed up 0.9 percent, tech back in front. Asia is green this morning. Here is the one that matters for us. Taiwan's chips reversed and are up 1.8 percent, so the selling that hit our IT Read the chapter The twist: the official 14 July book **1,52,000**Long calls went Here is the twist, and it is in the positioning that just came out, the official 14 July book. Pros move first. Going into Tuesday's expiry they were long both the calls and the puts, paying for a big move either way. Overnight they cut it. Their long calls Read the chapter The participants: foreign desks defensive, the crowd chasing **2,65,000**Futures short out **44,000**Out to contracts, added **82,000**Long book **6,29,000**Now short The foreign desks went the other way, more defensive. They pushed their index futures short out to 2,65,000 contracts, added 44,000 more downside puts, and for the first time in this stretch they trimmed their single stock long book by about 82,000 contracts. Read the chapter Why the hedge stays on: 24,000 is the fuel **6,29,000**Crowd is short **24,000**Puts sitting right So what does that tell you to do. This is a market to buy dips in, not to chase. And it is why the hedge stays on. The crowd is short 6,29,000 puts sitting right at 24,000. That is the fuel. As long as 24,000 holds, those writers are fine and dips get bought. Read the chapter The levels: the Nifty board and tomorrow's Sensex expiry **24,000**New weekly board **6 crore**Call wall **24,500**Far wall **23,900**Support below On the new weekly board, 24,000 is the line, the single biggest cluster of bets on the screen, both sides. 24,100 is your first real resistance, the heaviest call wall at over 6 crore contracts. Above that 24,200, then 24,300, and the far wall at 24,500. Read the chapter The plan and the scorecard: buyer above 24,000, out below on volume **24,150**Reclaim and look **23,900**Next support **23,800**Next support **24,000**Said buy The plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200, and 24,300 only if 24,200 gives way. 24,000 is the line, hold it and dips are for buying, a third day in a row. Lose 24,000 on real volume, and that Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: buy dips a third day, but keep the insurance on On the screen yesterday looked calm. Nifty slipped two thirds of a percent, but 24,000 held to the tick for the second day running, and it closed 24,052, pinned right between the walls. But the official positioning dropped last night and it tells a different story. The pros took money off the table, the foreign desks got more defensive, and the retail crowd piled in the other way. So today I am still a buyer of dips, a third day on this wall. But that split under the surface is the exact reason you keep your insurance on. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 81, a news podcast with a twist, options first. ### *02*Yesterday the tape: crude ran past 86, but 24,000 held again Crude was the whole story. Brent ran past 86 dollars on the Hormuz standoff and the market slipped with it. Nifty fell 159 points to 24,052, the Sensex fell 561 to 77,055. But 24,000 held to the tick again, the low was 24,023, and the close pinned between 24,000 and 24,100. Under the hood it was defensive. Pharma, healthcare and metals were the only green, while realty, the public banks, autos and IT were sold. HCLTech alone fell four and a half percent after its result. The foreign desks sold 740 crore in cash, the domestics bought 2,928 crore and soaked it up. And the fear gauge did not fall on expiry like it usually does. It rose, up three and a half percent to 13.75. ### *03*Overnight: the tone improved, chips turned, crude stalled In America a cooler inflation number lifted the market, the Nasdaq closed up 0.9 percent, tech back in front. Asia is green this morning. Here is the one that matters for us. Taiwan's chips reversed and are up 1.8 percent, so the selling that hit our IT yesterday has turned. And crude, the risk, stopped climbing. Brent is 86, no fresh spike overnight. GIFT Nifty is 24,046, flat to yesterday's close, so the open is quiet. The rupee is still soft at 96.20 and crude is still 86, so the tail is there, but it is not getting worse this morning. ### *04*The twist: the official 14 July book Here is the twist, and it is in the positioning that just came out, the official 14 July book. Pros move first. Going into Tuesday's expiry they were long both the calls and the puts, paying for a big move either way. Overnight they cut it. Their long calls went from 1,52,000 contracts down to 48,000, and they trimmed the puts too. The smart desk that was betting on a move just took that bet off the table. They are still long the futures, but far lighter on the options. ### *05*The participants: foreign desks defensive, the crowd chasing The foreign desks went the other way, more defensive. They pushed their index futures short out to 2,65,000 contracts, added 44,000 more downside puts, and for the first time in this stretch they trimmed their single stock long book by about 82,000 contracts. Their whole derivative book reads bearish. The clients did the opposite of both. They chased, adding a lakh of long calls, and sold even more downside. They are now short 6,29,000 puts under this market. That is the widest gap in a while. The money that matters stepped back, and the crowd stepped in. ### *06*Why the hedge stays on: 24,000 is the fuel So what does that tell you to do. This is a market to buy dips in, not to chase. And it is why the hedge stays on. The crowd is short 6,29,000 puts sitting right at 24,000. That is the fuel. As long as 24,000 holds, those writers are fine and dips get bought. But if crude cracks that level, they all run for cover at once, and that is exactly what turns a slow drift into a fast drop. ### *07*The levels: the Nifty board and tomorrow's Sensex expiry On the new weekly board, 24,000 is the line, the single biggest cluster of bets on the screen, both sides. 24,100 is your first real resistance, the heaviest call wall at over 6 crore contracts. Above that 24,200, then 24,300, and the far wall at 24,500. Support below 24,000 is 23,900, then 23,800. The fear gauge at 13.75 is pricing a move of about 210 points today, so think 23,850 on the downside to 24,260 on the upside. Tomorrow is Sensex expiry. The Sensex opens flat near 77,050. The sellers have stacked the top hard, 77,500 is the heaviest call wall, then 77,200 and 77,100 just under it, almost 12 million call contracts written there. 77,000 is the pivot, supports below are 76,900 then 76,500. The board is pricing 76,500 to 77,500 into the close. The stance into Thursday. Fade rallies into 77,200 up toward 77,500 with a stop above, and buy dips to 77,000 that hold. Trade the two edges, skip the middle. One override, same as Tuesday, a fresh crude headline beats the pin. ### *08*The plan and the scorecard: buyer above 24,000, out below on volume The plan. Above 24,000 I am a buyer of dips with a hedge on. Reclaim 24,100 and I look for 24,150 to 24,200, and 24,300 only if 24,200 gives way. 24,000 is the line, hold it and dips are for buying, a third day in a row. Lose 24,000 on real volume, and that needs crude to spike or a fresh headline over the strait, then gamma flips, the short put crowd runs, and I want no part of the middle. Next support 23,900, then 23,800, and I stand aside, I do not average down. Keep the insurance on. Vol is cheap, the fear gauge is rising, and there is a live crude event running. Scorecard on episode 80. I said buy the 24,000 dip with a hedge and keep the insurance on. The tape fell as flagged, the hedge paid, and 24,000 held. But it held to the very tick, so the lower entry I wanted at 23,950 never came. Two and a half out of five, direction right, entry too greedy. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty closed 24,052 down 159 points 0.66 percent holding 24,000 to the tick a second day * *02*Sensex closed 77,055 down 561 points * *03*Intraday low 24,023 close pinned between 24,000 and 24,100 * *04*India VIX rose 3.5 percent to 13.75 into expiry instead of falling * *05*HCLTech fell 4.5 percent after its result * *06*Only pharma healthcare and metals green realty PSU banks autos and IT sold * *07*FII sold 740 crore cash DII bought 2928 crore * *08*Brent ran past 86 dollars on the Hormuz standoff * *09*Overnight Nasdaq up 0.9 percent on cooler US inflation * *10*Taiwan chips reversed up 1.8 percent the IT selling turned * *11*GIFT Nifty 24,046 flat rupee 96.20 crude still 86 * *12*Pros cut long calls from 1,52,000 to 48,000 and trimmed puts * *13*Pros still long futures but far lighter on options * *14*FII pushed index futures short to 2,65,000 contracts * *15*FII added 44,000 downside puts and cut single stock longs by 82,000 * *16*Clients added a lakh long calls now short 6,29,000 puts at 24,000 * *17*Nifty 24,100 first resistance over 6 crore call contracts far wall 24,500 * *18*Support 23,900 then 23,800 VIX prices a 210 point move box 23,850 to 24,260 * *19*Sensex expiry Thursday cap 77,500 pivot 77,000 range 76,500 to 77,500 * *20*EP80 graded 2.5 out of 5 direction right entry too greedy Show all 20 05In his words The money that matters stepped back, and the crowd stepped in. 24,000 held to the tick for the second day running, and it closed 24,052. The crowd is short 6,29,000 puts sitting right at 24,000. That is the fuel. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,302 words, about 6 min to read a very good morning guys on the screen yesterday nifty slipped two -third of a percent but 24 000 held nicely for the second day running and it closed at 24 000 052 pinned right between the support calm but then the official positioning dropped last night and it tells a different story completely the pros took money off the table the foreign desk got more defensive and the retail crowd piled in the other way so today i'm still a buyer but a third day on this support but that split under the surface is exactly the reason you keep your insurance on So this is the Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 81. I am Tanmay Kutubati. Let's go. So let me give you yesterday first. Crude was the whole story. Brent ranked past $86 on the Hermos standoff and the market slipped with it. Nifty down 159 points to 24,052. The Sensex down 561 points to 77,055. But 24,000 held again. The low was 24,023 and the close pinned between 24,000 and 24,100. Under the hood, it was defensive. Pharma, healthcare and metals were the only green, while realty, the public banks, autos and IT were sold off. 5 % after its results. The foreign desk sold 740 crore in cash. The DAS bought 2928. 9 percent tech back in the front. Asia is green this morning and here is one thing that matters for us. 8%. So the selling that hit our IT yesterday has turned and crude the risk stopped climbing. Brent is $86, no fresh spike overnight. GIF Nifty is trading at 24,046, extremely flat. 20 and the crude is still at 86 dollars so the tail is there but it is not getting worse this morning so here is the twist guys and it is the positioning that just came out the official 14 july book pros first because they move first going into tuesday's expiry the pros were long both the calls and the puts paying for the big move either way overnight they cut it strongly their long calls went from 1 lakh 52 000 contracts down to almost 48 000 they have trimmed almost more than one lakh calls they have trimmed the puts too the smartest that was betting on a move just took that bet off the table they are still long the futures but far lighter on the options as well now for the foreign desk they they went the other way more defensive they pushed their indices index futures short out to two lakh sixty five thousand contracts they added forty four thousand contracts more downside puts and for the first time in the stretch they trimmed their big single stock futures long book by around eighty two thousand contracts their whole derivative book reads bearish and the crowd the clients did the opposite of the both they chased adding a lack of long calls and they sold even more downside they are now short six lakh twenty nine thousand puts under the market that is extremely bad that is the widest gap i have seen in a while The money that matters stepped back and the crowd stepped in and it is going to get hurt for sure. So what does that tell you? It tells you that this market is not a chasing market and it tells you that the hedge stays on at any given point because the crowd is short 6,29,000 puts sitting right at 24,000. That is the fuel. As long as we hold 24,000, those writers are fine and the dips get bought. But if crude cracks and the level is going to break because that is where the stop losses of retail would get hit in. They all run for cover at once and that is exactly what turns a slow drift into a fast drop. So the levels guys and this is important. So the new weekly board 24,000 is the line. The single biggest cluster of bets on the screen. 75 is pricing a move of about 210 points today so think 23 830 on the downside to 24 280 on the upside so that is your box for today guys remember this and the box is much deeper on the 24 000 side so 23 850 cannot be ruled out so now tomorrow is sensex expiry so specific word on it because you have asked for specifics not a weak weak levels that i am giving the sensex opens flat near 27,050 the sellers have stacked the top hard at 77 500 that is your resistance and heaviest call wall 77 200 and 77 100 just underneath and they wrote almost 12 million call contracts yesterday defending that zone that caps it 77 000 is the pivot that holds the range and below it Supports are 76,900, 76,500. The board is pricing the Sensex to stay roughly between 76,600 to 77,400. Remember this box into the close. So the 1000 point band is your battleground. 77,000 is the middle of it. The stands into Thursday. The writers want it pinned between 77 to 77,200 pocket. Fade rallies into 77. 200 upwards towards that 77 500 range with a stop above and buy on dips till 76 600 that is your level trade those ages skip the middle part and one override same as tuesday a fresh crude headline beats the pin if brent breaks higher respect the move do not marry the pin so here is the plan for today guys about 24 000 I am not only a buyer, but I feel that again we are going to reclaim 24,100 and 24,200. But the buying levels that I am going to do is 23,950, same as yesterday, 950 to 970. 24,000 is the line. Hold it and the dips are for buying. A third day in a row. and we are going to lose 24 000 for sure guys and with volume and that crude spike if it happens then we are going to see 24 23 900 and if that breaks that 23 800 is coming and i'm going to stand aside and wait i do not want to average it down i'll keep my insurance open at 23 800 by going long at 24 000 And keep the insurance on. Wall is cheap, the fear gauge is rising and there is a live crude event running. This is the exact combination where you want to hold your protection, not sell it. Remember who is on each side right now. The pros are buying, the protection the crowd is selling. Be on the side of the desk, that is usually right. Two things swing the day. Crude first, watch whether Brent holds 86 or not. falls below 80 and it watch it if steady is now the taiwan chips have bounced back or if it keeps bleeding with the domestic banks quick word on yesterday guys episode 80 so but uh if sorry uh quick word on episode 80 guys two and a half out of five so direction right entry to greedy full scorecard is available on the website have a great wednesday guys that he has pinned But the smart money has stepped back and the crowd has stepped in. So remember this. Retail is only long. Rest all are short. So the market is not positioned for a big breakout on the upside. Buy the 24,000 dip with the hedge without fail. Remember the resistance at 24, 100 and 200. That is your selling zone. Only if 24,000. com where it stream first and give a rating guys and a review if you want to add something to it have a happy wednesday and see you all once again on tomorrow's expiry Questions ## EP81, in plain words. What does EP81 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP81, Wednesday 15 Jul 2026, 10:06, in 8 chapters: Cold open: buy dips a third day, but keep the insurance on; Yesterday the tape: crude ran past 86, but 24,000 held again; Overnight: the tone improved, chips turned, crude stalled; The twist: the official 14 July book; The participants: foreign desks defensive, the crowd chasing; Why the hedge stays on: 24,000 is the fuel; The levels: the Nifty board and tomorrow's Sensex expiry; The plan and the scorecard: buyer above 24,000, out below on volume. How did the calls in EP81 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. 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