--- title: "The Market Un-Bought Its Own Headline | The Tanmay Edge" description: "On Monday the Nifty closed down 96 at 24,238 (-0.39%) and the Sensex down 443 at 77,708 (-0.57%), and if you only read those two numbers you missed the entire" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-21" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP85 # The market Un-Bought its own headline Axis and HDFC sold 5%, ICICI bought green, Red index, green breadth, Buy the rumour sell the news, Nifty expiry today Nifty closed 24,238 down 95.80 points or 0.39 percent on Monday and the Sensex 77,708 down 442.93 * **12:03**listen * **4.5/5**graded at settlement * **Tue 21 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The market Un-Bought its own headline EP85, 21 Jul, 12:03 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes12:03 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4.5/5 at settlement. **4.5/5**90% **The call.** Nifty Weekly Expiry Sell The News Friday Bought The Bank Prints Monday Sold Them Axis Down 5.48 HDFC Down 5.12 Kotak Down 2 ICICI Up 1.27 Green On A Red Day PSU Bank Index Up 2.78 Red Index Green Breadth 36 Up 14 Down Midcaps Up 0.60 All Cap Up 0.74 On Nifty Down 0.39 FII Sold 1,121 Cr Cash DII Bought 1,312 Cr Pro Long Balanced Both Ways FII Defensive Short Calls Long 4,10,533 Puts Hedged Long Stock Book Client Sells Both Wings Max Pain 24,200 Put Wall 1,34,11,060 Support 24,200 24,100 24,000 Resistance Migrated Down 24,300 First 24,500 Hard Cap PCR 1.378 VIX 12.98 Falling Straddle 150 IV 11.59 Crushed Buy The Gap Down Into 24,100 To 24,150 Target 24,200 Then 24,300 Void If 24,100 Breaks And Holds Air Pocket 24,000 * **5**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **2**Miss Graded the next trading day, 22 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's split does not sum to the score denominator; both are shown as recorded. 1. **Hit**the red index green breadth side call, Midcap up 0.30 and Smallcap up 0.53. The two misses, the open came in firm at 24,216 rather than the flagged gap down near 24150, and the push to 24,300 never printed. Four and a half out of five, the pin scoring was flawless and only the directional stretch and the exact open shape missed. 2. **Hit**the red index green breadth side call, Midcap up 0.30 and Smallcap up 0.53. The two misses, the open came in firm at 24,216 rather than the flagged gap down near 24150, and the push to 24,300 never printed. Four and a half out of five, the pin scoring was flawless and only the directional stretch and the exact open shape missed. 3. **Hit**the red index green breadth side call, Midcap up 0.30 and Smallcap up 0.53. The two misses, the open came in firm at 24,216 rather than the flagged gap down near 24150, and the push to 24,300 never printed. Four and a half out of five, the pin scoring was flawless and only the directional stretch and the exact open shape missed. 4. **Hit**the red index green breadth side call, Midcap up 0.30 and Smallcap up 0.53. The two misses, the open came in firm at 24,216 rather than the flagged gap down near 24150, and the push to 24,300 never printed. Four and a half out of five, the pin scoring was flawless and only the directional stretch and the exact open shape missed. 5. **Hit**the red index green breadth side call, Midcap up 0.30 and Smallcap up 0.53. The two misses, the open came in firm at 24,216 rather than the flagged gap down near 24150, and the push to 24,300 never printed. Four and a half out of five, the pin scoring was flawless and only the directional stretch and the exact open shape missed. 6. **Hit**the red index green breadth side call, Midcap up 0.30 and Smallcap up 0.53. The two misses, the open came in firm at 24,216 rather than the flagged gap down near 24150, and the push to 24,300 never printed. Four and a half out of five, the pin scoring was flawless and only the directional stretch and the exact open shape missed. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 2. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 3. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 4. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 5. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 6. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 7. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win 8. **08**The pin: long gamma glues the tape, andThere is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win Cold open: the market Un-Bought its own headline **5.5 percent**Axis Bank **5.1**HDFC Bank **1.3 percent**Kept was ICICI **1.5**State Bank Today is Nifty weekly expiry, and yesterday I told you not to trust the headline. Yesterday the market didn't either. It sold the exact banks it bought on Friday. Friday everybody bought the bank results. The big private banks posted their June quarter, the Read the chapter The banks: Friday bought the print, Monday sold the quality **1 percent**Actual lending business barely **5.5 percent**Sold the stock **13 percent**Lending income up almost Friday the headline profits looked enormous. Axis up 22 percent, Kotak up 26. But the call on Monday's episode was to rank them by the engine, not the headline. And when the market opened Monday it did exactly that. It looked under the hood, saw that Axis grew Read the chapter Sell the news: the half of the rule almost nobody explains There is an old line in this market. Buy the rumour, sell the news. Everyone knows it. But almost nobody knows the second half of why it works. A stock can beat its numbers and still fall, for two reasons. One, the good news was already bought before it arrived, so the print just pays out the people who front ran it. And two, if the beat is low quality, if it came from an accounting choice and not from the business Read the chapter Breadth: a red index sitting on top of a green market **2.8**Public bank index **0.74 percent**Equal weight, closed **0.39**Day the Nifty fell **1.4**Same book The red 96 point number hid a second story. Breadth. Yes the Nifty was red. But look one layer down. The midcap index closed up. The smallcaps closed up. The microcaps up 0.6 percent. The public bank index up 2.8. On the Nifty 50 itself 36 stocks rose and only Read the chapter The money flow: foreign selling, domestic buying, and who is hedged **1,121**Foreign funds sold **1,312**Domestic institutions bought Now the money flow, in the order that matters. The professionals, then the foreign funds, then the crowd. The foreign funds sold 1,121 crore of cash on Monday. The domestic institutions bought 1,312 crore and swallowed every rupee of it. That is the pattern Read the chapter The overnight: a gap down that backs the buyers, not a warning **24,150**Points, opening us **24,200**Us near below **24,100**Open soft into even **2 percent**Roughly flat, Korea bounced The overnight changed the shape of the day. The Gift Nifty is pointing to a gap down, down about 90 points, opening us near 24,150, below the 24,200 magnet and right on Monday's low. And here is where my view stays firm. On a day with about 1.4 puts working Read the chapter The plan: 24,200 is the magnet, 24,300 is the first Wall **1.3**Put positions **24,238**Closed Monday **24,200**Support sits **24,100**Support sits The most important number on the board is 24,200. On the official chain that is the single biggest cluster of put positions, over 1.3 crore contracts, and it is the level where the most options expire worthless tonight. On expiry day the strike with the most Read the chapter The pin: long gamma glues the tape, and yesterday's grade **24,100**Between roughly **24,300**Between roughly **24,200**Pulling price back **24,000**Air pocket down toward There is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win if the market sits and lose if it moves, so they defend themselves. They sell into every push up and buy back every dip down. Between roughly 24,100 Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the market Un-Bought its own headline Today is Nifty weekly expiry, and yesterday I told you not to trust the headline. Yesterday the market didn't either. It sold the exact banks it bought on Friday. Friday everybody bought the bank results. The big private banks posted their June quarter, the profit numbers looked huge, and the market chased them up. Monday the same market turned around and sold those exact banks. Axis Bank down 5.5 percent. HDFC Bank down 5.1. Kotak down 2. In a single session the market un-bought Friday's headline. And the one bank it kept was ICICI, up 1.3 percent, green on a red day. The State Bank up 1.5. The public sector banks as a group up 2.8 percent, every single one higher. So the Nifty closed down 96 points at 24,238, and if you only read that number you missed the entire story underneath it. ### *02*The banks: Friday bought the print, Monday sold the quality Friday the headline profits looked enormous. Axis up 22 percent, Kotak up 26. But the call on Monday's episode was to rank them by the engine, not the headline. And when the market opened Monday it did exactly that. It looked under the hood, saw that Axis grew its actual lending business barely 1 percent, that most of that profit jump came from setting aside less money against bad loans, and it sold the stock 5.5 percent. It saw the same trick at Kotak and sold that too. The bank that earned its number the hard way, ICICI, with lending income up almost 13 percent, real growth, the market bought and pushed green. That is the market grading the results for you. The number is not the story. The story is the engine underneath it. ### *03*Sell the news: the half of the rule almost nobody explains There is an old line in this market. Buy the rumour, sell the news. Everyone knows it. But almost nobody knows the second half of why it works. A stock can beat its numbers and still fall, for two reasons. One, the good news was already bought before it arrived, so the print just pays out the people who front ran it. And two, if the beat is low quality, if it came from an accounting choice and not from the business getting bigger, the smart money reads that in about ten minutes and sells into the crowd that is still cheering the headline. That is Monday in one sentence. The crowd bought the print. The desks sold the quality. And the gap between those two is where you either make money or become the exit liquidity. ### *04*Breadth: a red index sitting on top of a green market The red 96 point number hid a second story. Breadth. Yes the Nifty was red. But look one layer down. The midcap index closed up. The smallcaps closed up. The microcaps up 0.6 percent. The public bank index up 2.8. On the Nifty 50 itself 36 stocks rose and only 14 fell. So how does an index full of green stocks close red? Because the index is a weighted average, not a headcount. Two giants, HDFC Bank and Axis, carry enough weight to drag the whole number down while three dozen other stocks quietly went up. A red headline on green breadth is not a selloff. It is concentrated pain in a couple of heavyweights. And I can measure it in my own book. My All Cap portfolio on RupeeCase, 50 stocks, equal weight, closed up 0.74 percent on Monday, on a day the Nifty fell 0.39. That is a 1.1 percent edge in one session, and it is the exact mirror of Friday when the index was up 1 percent and that same book was down 1.4. Rules, not feelings, live on rupeecase.com. ### *05*The money flow: foreign selling, domestic buying, and who is hedged Now the money flow, in the order that matters. The professionals, then the foreign funds, then the crowd. The foreign funds sold 1,121 crore of cash on Monday. The domestic institutions bought 1,312 crore and swallowed every rupee of it. That is the pattern all month. Foreign selling, domestic buying, and the domestic side is winning the tape. The official positioning into expiry tells you how each desk is leaning. The professional desks are net long the futures and net long the calls, but they are holding real downside puts too, balanced, not reckless. The foreign funds turned a shade more defensive. They stopped covering their index short and added a little to it, they are short the calls and long the puts, while still sitting on a big long book of actual shares. So they are hedged long and cautious, not gone. And the retail crowd is long the futures but selling both option wings, which at the edges is usually the wrong seat. ### *06*The overnight: a gap down that backs the buyers, not a warning The overnight changed the shape of the day. The Gift Nifty is pointing to a gap down, down about 90 points, opening us near 24,150, below the 24,200 magnet and right on Monday's low. And here is where my view stays firm. On a day with about 1.4 puts working for every call and the fear gauge falling, a gap down into that put wall is not a crash starting, it is the dip. So my plan is to buy it. Let the market open soft into 24,150, even 24,100, let it base there, and I am a buyer back toward the 24,200 magnet and then 24,300. The rest of the overnight backs the buyers. US chip stocks steadied after Friday's rout and closed roughly flat, Korea bounced 2 percent, Japan almost 2, crude held near 88. Nothing overseas is screaming sell. ### *07*The plan: 24,200 is the magnet, 24,300 is the first Wall The most important number on the board is 24,200. On the official chain that is the single biggest cluster of put positions, over 1.3 crore contracts, and it is the level where the most options expire worthless tonight. On expiry day the strike with the most money sold around it becomes a magnet. We closed Monday at 24,238, right on top of it. Support sits at 24,200, then 24,100, then 24,000. And notice where the sellers put the ceiling after Monday's drop. They stacked fresh calls at 24,300, at 24,400, and a big new wall at 24,500. The resistance came down and tightened toward the price. So 24,300 is the first line, 24,500 is the hard cap, and with about 1.4 puts in play for every call, the base case still leans up. The fear gauge fell again to just under 13. The one day option pricing got crushed to about 11.6 percent. The market is pricing only about 150 points of total move by tonight's close. That is the signature of a day that wants to sit still. ### *08*The pin: long gamma glues the tape, and yesterday's grade There is a mechanical reason the day sits still. It is called gamma. The desks that sold all these options win if the market sits and lose if it moves, so they defend themselves. They sell into every push up and buy back every dip down. Between roughly 24,100 and 24,300 those desks are the invisible hand pulling price back to 24,200. That is the pin. It only stops working if price falls clean out of that band. So respect the magnet, but read the open. The one thing that voids the buy is this. If 24,100 breaks and stays broken, that is no longer a dip, it is an air pocket down toward 24,000, and I do not catch that. I have been burned reaching below the shelf before. One line on my last call. Episode 84, I give it 4 out of 5. I drew the line at 24,300 and said below it the market stretches to 24,200. It opened below 24,300 and stretched straight through 24,200 to a low of 24,135 before climbing back. Direction right, the level tagged, the frame worked. The only miss, 24,200 didn't hold as a hard floor, it got sliced first and reclaimed. Trust the frame, not the flinch. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty closed 24,238 down 95.80 points or 0.39 percent on Monday and the Sensex 77,708 down 442.93 * *02*Bank Nifty 57,945 down 0.98 percent with the whole drop led by two private bank heavyweights * *03*Axis Bank fell 5.48 percent HDFC Bank 5.12 percent and Kotak 2 percent the banks Friday had bought * *04*ICICI rose 1.27 percent green on a red day on net interest income up about 12.7 percent * *05*The PSU bank index rose 2.78 percent with every name higher and State Bank up 1.51 percent * *06*Axis grew core lending barely 1.3 percent and its profit jump came from provisions down 43.7 percent * *07*On the Nifty 50 itself 36 stocks rose and only 14 fell yet the index still closed red * *08*Midcaps up 0.60 percent microcaps up 0.61 and smallcaps up 0.16 under a red headline * *09*The All Cap book closed up 0.74 percent against the Nifty down 0.39 a 1.13 percent edge in one session * *10*FIIs sold 1,121 crore of cash on Monday and DIIs bought 1,312 crore and swallowed all of it * *11*FII cash selling for July now 11,652 crore against DII buying of 43,130 crore * *12*Proprietary desks net long futures net long 2,46,822 calls and net long 1,72,895 puts balanced both ways * *13*FIIs added the index short to 2,19,823 stopped covering short the calls and long 4,10,533 puts * *14*FIIs still hold 5,53,703 long stock futures so the book is hedged long not gone * *15*Clients long the futures but short 1,04,565 calls and short 6,17,895 puts selling both wings * *16*Max pain sits at 24,200 the biggest put wall 1,34,11,060 contracts where most expire worthless * *17*Support 24,200 then 24,100 at 1.12 crore puts and 24,000 at 1.29 crore * *18*Resistance migrated down to 24,300 first line and a fresh 24,500 wall at 1,15,38,670 the hard cap * *19*PCR of OI 1.378 put writers dominant with about 1.4 puts for every call the base case leans up * *20*India VIX fell to 12.98 the one day straddle near 150 points and IV crushed to 11.59 percent sell premium Show all 20 05In his words Yesterday I told you not to trust the headline. Yesterday, the market didn't either. In a single session, the market un-bought Friday's headline. The crowd bought the print. The desks sold the quality. And the gap between those two is where you either make money or become the exit liquidity. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,178 words, about 5 min to read A very good morning guys. Today is the expiry day, and yesterday I told you not to trust the headline. Yesterday the market didn't either. It sold the exact banks it bought on Friday. So let's look at what happened yesterday. 39%. Sensex was 440 points down, and Bank Nifty at 57,945. So today we are opening at a gap down, and 24,190 was the open. Yesterday's low was 24,135, yesterday's high was 24,266, recovered towards the close, and the advance decline ratio was 36 to 14. 2%. 5%. 57%. So a gap down open of almost 100 points on the expiry day. So this is the podcast, you are listening to episode 85. Let's go. So Monday the market did exactly what I said. Friday ranked them by the engine, not the headlines, and sold the ones that were flattered by provisioning. Friday bought the headline profits. 5% numbers, Kotak positive 26%. Monday sold them off. 5%, Kotak was down 2%, HDFC down minus 5%. And today the ADR is showing another gap down on the banks. So Axis core lending was 1% only, mostly a positive jump on lower provisions of minus 43%, and Kotak provisions minus 45%. 7%. 75%. So a beat can still be flat. The good news was in before it arrived. A low quality bid gets sold by the desk into the cheering. So everyone knows now, buy the rumor sell the news. Almost nobody knows the second half of why it works. The crowd bought the print, the desk sold the quality, and the gap between them is where money is made, or becomes the exit liquidity. So let's look at the breadth. 36 stocks were up, 14 were down, and the index still closed in red. Two giants carried enough weight to drag 40 green stocks down. 74% on a red day. Friday the few dragged many up, Monday the many carried themselves. com. So let's look at some positioning and data, what has happened yesterday and what we are looking at today's open. So Monday cash FIIs sold 1,121 crores in the cash market, whereas DIIs bought in 1,312 crores. Cumulative FIIs have been selling 11,652 crore for the month of July, whereas DIIs have bought almost 43,000 crores. So let's look at the derivative positioning as well. Pros, or the proprietary traders, on the index futures are net long. Calls they are net long 2,46,822, and puts they are net long by 1,72,000. So long calls, long puts, plus long futures. It's a two sided position paying for a market move and not a directional bet. Whereas FIIs are still net short. FIIs are minus 2,19,823. They added roughly 3,000 shorts yesterday, covering some of the streak where they had been buying futures. Calls they are still net short around 1,50,000, puts they are net long 4,10,533, defensive but bearish. But stock futures still net long 5,53,000. So on index futures they are still short 1,49,000, they have bought 4,10,000 puts, that's again bearish, and calls they have sold 1,50,000, again a bearish bet. But if you look at the stock futures position, they actually have 5,53,000 long stock futures. So that makes it a sideways bet, they are buying long in the stocks and shorting the index. Client futures, if you look, they are extremely bullish. Futures they have 1,49,000 long, calls they have 1,00,000 short, and puts they have 6,17,895. So they have sold calls and they have sold puts, and they are betting that the market doesn't move that much. So that is the positioning. So let's look at some global and commodities as well. GIFT Nifty is currently down and trading around 24,146, minus 135 points, a gap down of 90 points from Monday's close. 19%. Nasdaq was flat. Dow futures is positive and did not hold into the close. 6%. 67%. Europe was flat on Monday. 65% from yesterday. Gold is strong and trading at $4,026. WTI at 82. 95. 79. And crypto, bitcoin is trading at 64,154. The plan for today's expiry and the option chain is what we are going to look at. Max pain still stands at 24,200. The biggest support is present at 1 crore 34 lakh 11,060 at 24,200. 29 crore. Fresh puts have been added at 23,800 and also at 24,050 levels. So that is the support, support you are looking at 24,100 levels. The resistance has been shifted down. 24,300 calls dropped, 24,400 also dropped. 24,500 is still having 1 crore 15 lakh, that is the highest present. 24,300 has 26 lakh and 24,400 has 17 lakh. So the support has been shifted down, the resistance has been shifted down, and we are seeing a range of 24,000 to 24,350 on the upside. 378, so put writers still dominating and PCR is showing a positive bias. Spot at 24,238, between that 24,200 magnet and 24,300 resistance. 59, it crushed yesterday. 53, so sell is the signal on volatility. One standard deviation is roughly 187 points, that takes us to 24,000 to 24,350 on the upside. So that is your option chain. But let's look at what the pin analysis is showing. So the max pain still stands at 24,200, biggest put support at 24,000 strike. 34 crore, where most of the contracts should expire worthless, and that is the max pain. Positive gamma pinning zone is 24,100, your support, and 24,300, your call resistance. So the positive gamma pinning zone stands at 24,100, so look for that 24,100 ironfly today. 24,238 sits inside that zone of 24,100 to 24,300. Dealers are long gamma here, so they will fade the pushes and buy the dips. Mean reversion should happen and we should close between 24,100 to 200. Gamma flip is above that 24,300 level, a clean breakup plus holding should shed positive gamma and drift should happen towards that 24,500 zone. Gamma flip on the downside level is 24,100, and the market should amplify and we should hit that 24,000 mark. So keep a stop loss at 24,100 if you are going long. So buy the dips continues, and that is what we are doing for today as well. So the down branch fired below 24,300, sliced through 24,200 to a low of 24,135, then reclaimed and closed at 24,238. That was yesterday, missed the 24,200 magnet but not the hard flow. So that is what we are going to see today, and 24,100 to 200 is where the expiry should happen. The buy on dips POV still runs guys, so look for buying opportunities, look for levels. Today's levels are 24,100, 24,000 should hit if 24,100 is broken, and that is where the maximum puts should get unwound. So this was the podcast guys, you listened to episode 85. com. Also subscribe on Amazon and Spotify as well as Apple Podcasts so that you don't miss any single episode. See you all once again on Wednesday. Have a very happy expiry and trade safe. Look at 24,200 and the fly, that is the trade for today. Questions ## EP85, in plain words. What does EP85 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP85, Tuesday 21 Jul 2026, 12:03, in 8 chapters: Cold open: the market Un-Bought its own headline; The banks: Friday bought the print, Monday sold the quality; Sell the news: the half of the rule almost nobody explains; Breadth: a red index sitting on top of a green market; The money flow: foreign selling, domestic buying, and who is hedged; The overnight: a gap down that backs the buyers, not a warning; The plan: 24,200 is the magnet, 24,300 is the first Wall; The pin: long gamma glues the tape, and yesterday's grade. How did the calls in EP85 score?Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 5 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded the next trading day, 22 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 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