--- title: "Four Days Down, Crude At 100, And The | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Four sessions down, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks, and this morning it got harder. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq more than" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-24" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP88 # Four days down, crude at 100, and the crowd is still selling puts . 23,800 is the line, 23,900 is the fresh resistance, Nifty closed 23,869.60 down 126.65 a third of a percent the fourth straight down day * **13:12**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Fri 24 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Four days down, crude at 100, and the crowd is still selling puts . 23,800 is the line, 23,900 is the fresh resistance, EP88, 24 Jul, 13:12 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes13:12 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** Fourth Down Day Crude Near 100 Crowd Still Short Puts Friday Not Expiry Nifty 23,869.60 Down 126.65 VIX 13.48 Fear Up 4 Sessions Breadth 20 Up 30 Down 15 Of 16 Red Only Auto Green 0.70 Nifty 28 Jul Chain 23,900 Fresh Call Wall 51.92 L Biggest New Line 24,000 Wall 1.29 Cr Puts Dumped 59.32 L Support Rebuilt 23,800 Holds 79.09 L Puts Added 25.11 L Below 23,700 Then 23,500 PCR 0.68 Max Pain 23,900 Options Line 23,900 To 24,000 Pros Long 28,289 Fut 1.39 L Calls 1.87 L Puts Added Every Leg FII Short 2,63,082 Fut Long 5,47,149 Stock Hedged Long Client Short 7,69,347 Puts Sold 77,000 More Naked Brent Near 100 Rupee 96.57 GIFT 23,710 Below 23,800 Plan Hold 23,800 Bounce To 23,900 Fade Or Lose 23,800 To 23,700 Then 23,540 Band 23,540 To 24,190 Straddle 255 Move 310 All Cap Minus 1.22 Vs Nifty Minus 0.50 * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 27 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Mon 27 Jul against the Mon close 23,995.95. The one level plan was clean, we opened below 23800, the move amplified down exactly as flagged and Nifty washed to 23,606 before it turned, and crude and the rupee stayed the arbiter. The miss was the close, the tape bought the entire crash back and shut green off its low with the banks leading. Four out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 8 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 2. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 3. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 4. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 5. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 6. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 7. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold 8. **08**The plan: one level, 23,800The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold Cold open: the melt up is not even a memory Yesterday the melt up in Asia lasted one morning. This morning it is not even a memory. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq down more than two percent, and Asia, the strongest thing on the board all week, opened red across the board. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the whole neighbourhood offered. And through all of it one number keeps climbing. Brent crude is knocking on 100 dollars this morning. 92 on Read the chapter Yesterday's grade: three and a half out of five **24,000**Question yesterday **76,700**Said respect **76,151.98**Through to low The question yesterday was 24,000. Fail to reclaim it by 10 o'clock and the sellers are in control, then 23,961 and 23,900. We never got near 24,000. The high was 23,990.75 in the first few minutes and that was it. We closed 23,869.60, straight through both Read the chapter The close: fourth down day, fear up four sessions **56,592**Bank Nifty **13.48**VIX, up again **0.70 percent**Auto held green Nifty 23,869.60, down 126.65, a third of a percent. Fourth down day in a row, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks. High 23,990.75, low 23,807.20. Sensex 76,391.39, down 363.66. Bank Nifty 56,592, down more than half a percent. The vol gauge, India Read the chapter The Nifty chain: resistance is right on top **51,92,135**July chain, sellers wrote **23,900**Fresh call contracts **1,29,48,195**Heavy wall **79,09,395**Support is holding On the 28 July chain, sellers wrote 51,92,135 fresh call contracts at 23,900, the single biggest new line on the board, about 30 points above where we closed. Fresh sellers parked right on our head. Above that, 24,000 is still the heavy wall at 1,29,48,195 Read the chapter Positioning: pros buy both wings, the crowd sells puts naked **28,289**Professionals are long **1,39,845**Long index futures, long **1,87,652**Long calls and long **2,63,082**Institutions are net short From the official participant file, smart money first. The professionals are long 28,289 index futures, long 1,39,845 calls and long 1,87,652 puts, all at once, and they added to every leg. The futures long roughly doubled. That desk is not picking a Read the chapter The world: risk off everywhere, crude near 100 **101.37**Dollar index **96.57**Rupee sits **96.50**Central bank visible **23,710**GIFT Nifty The overnight board is risk off everywhere, and that is the change. America's tech led down, the Nasdaq off more than two percent. Europe closed red. Asia, the one bid all week, opened red too. The divergence that protected us is gone. Brent is near 100 Read the chapter The week ahead: Tuesday expiry, earnings live **23,800**Same chain **23,900**Same chain Today, Friday, is not an expiry, so there is no pin holding price. It is a clean session into a weekend, and the weekend is the risk, because crude and the geopolitics do not close when we do. Tuesday the 28th is the next Nifty weekly expiry and the monthly Read the chapter The plan: one level, 23,800 **23,900**Fresh wall **23,540**Price band of roughly **24,190**Band of roughly **310 points**Pricing move The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold tape can bounce, but the first push higher runs straight into the fresh wall at 23,900, so I fade the first test there until it is taken on a close. Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the melt up is not even a memory Yesterday the melt up in Asia lasted one morning. This morning it is not even a memory. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq down more than two percent, and Asia, the strongest thing on the board all week, opened red across the board. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the whole neighbourhood offered. And through all of it one number keeps climbing. Brent crude is knocking on 100 dollars this morning. 92 on Tuesday, 98 last night, near 100 now. This is The Tanmay Edge, episode 88. ### *02*Yesterday's grade: three and a half out of five The question yesterday was 24,000. Fail to reclaim it by 10 o'clock and the sellers are in control, then 23,961 and 23,900. We never got near 24,000. The high was 23,990.75 in the first few minutes and that was it. We closed 23,869.60, straight through both numbers. Four of the five calls landed. The band held, the crude and rupee pair fired again, the no reclaim call was clean. The miss, again, was the Sensex support line. I said respect 76,700 and it cut through to a low of 76,151.98. Two sessions running my Sensex support has broken. Three and a half out of five, full scorecard on the website. ### *03*The close: fourth down day, fear up four sessions Nifty 23,869.60, down 126.65, a third of a percent. Fourth down day in a row, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks. High 23,990.75, low 23,807.20. Sensex 76,391.39, down 363.66. Bank Nifty 56,592, down more than half a percent. The vol gauge, India VIX, up again to 13.48. Price down and fear up, four sessions together, that is the whole story this morning. Breadth was heavy. Twenty stocks up, thirty down inside the Nifty 50. Fifteen of sixteen sectors red. Only Auto held green, up 0.70 percent, and that was earnings. Midcaps and smallcaps both down about a percent. ### *04*The Nifty chain: resistance is right on top On the 28 July chain, sellers wrote 51,92,135 fresh call contracts at 23,900, the single biggest new line on the board, about 30 points above where we closed. Fresh sellers parked right on our head. Above that, 24,000 is still the heavy wall at 1,29,48,195 calls, the biggest open interest on the chain. But the calls came off and the puts at 24,000 were dumped, down 59,32,810 in one session. That put support did not hold the line, it abandoned it. So 24,000 is resistance now, not a place buyers defend. The support is 23,800, holding 79,09,395 puts with 25,11,145 added fresh. Put writers stepped down and rebuilt support one strike lower. Below that is 23,700, then a deep shelf at 23,500. The put call ratio is about 0.68 and max pain walked down to 23,900. There is a line on the options map around 23,900 to 24,000. Above it the market pins and goes quiet, below it moves speed up. We closed at 23,869.60, just under it, so a loss of 23,800 does not drift, it slides. ### *05*Positioning: pros buy both wings, the crowd sells puts naked From the official participant file, smart money first. The professionals are long 28,289 index futures, long 1,39,845 calls and long 1,87,652 puts, all at once, and they added to every leg. The futures long roughly doubled. That desk is not picking a direction, it is paying up for a big move either way, and it got bigger into the fall. The foreign institutions are net short 2,63,082 index futures, close to eleven shorts for every long, but still net long 5,47,149 stock futures, so a hedged long, not an outright bear. They stacked more long puts on top. The insurance is growing faster than the book it protects. The clients, the retail crowd, are long 1,67,487 futures, long 1,67,052 calls and short 7,69,347 puts. They sold 77,000 more puts into the fourth down day, with crude at 100 and a weekend coming. They are the only seat with no protection, selling insurance right when the pros are paying up for it. ### *06*The world: risk off everywhere, crude near 100 The overnight board is risk off everywhere, and that is the change. America's tech led down, the Nasdaq off more than two percent. Europe closed red. Asia, the one bid all week, opened red too. The divergence that protected us is gone. Brent is near 100 dollars this morning, up from 92 on Tuesday. Crude at 100 is a straight tax on an economy that imports almost all of it. Gold slipped to about 4045. The dollar index is 101.37. The rupee sits at 96.57, about 39 paise from its record low, with the central bank visible near 96.50. Crypto is quiet, and that itself is a signal. Bitcoin around 65,600, Ether around 1923, both flat while equities sold off. GIFT Nifty is near 23,710, set to open below 23,800, straight onto the level that matters. ### *07*The week ahead: Tuesday expiry, earnings live Today, Friday, is not an expiry, so there is no pin holding price. It is a clean session into a weekend, and the weekend is the risk, because crude and the geopolitics do not close when we do. Tuesday the 28th is the next Nifty weekly expiry and the monthly too, the same chain, so 23,800 and 23,900 are the lines that get settled. Thursday the 30th is the next Sensex weekly. Earnings are live. Infosys reported after the close, profit up more than twelve percent but it trimmed its revenue guidance for the year. A soft print from the biggest name so far, already sold into the result. ### *08*The plan: one level, 23,800 The plan is one level. 23,800. We are likely to open near or below it. Hold 23,800 and this four day oversold tape can bounce, but the first push higher runs straight into the fresh wall at 23,900, so I fade the first test there until it is taken on a close. Lose 23,800 and stay under, and we are below the options line, moves speed up, and it is 23,700 first, then the shelf near 23,540. For the week the options price a band of roughly 23,540 to 24,190, so trade the edges, not the middle. The straddle is about 255, so the market is pricing a move of about 310 points today. The one thing I will not do into this weekend is sell cheap puts. The crowd is already doing it. Own your protection while it is still cheap. On our own book, the All Cap was down 1.22 percent against the Nifty at half a percent, but since the rebalance on the 20th it is down 0.92 percent while its benchmark is down 1.90 percent, still almost a percent ahead. Fifty equal weight names doing the job they are built for. 04Key takeaways ## 20 things to carry into the session. * *01*Nifty closed 23,869.60 down 126.65 a third of a percent the fourth straight down day * *02*Longest losing streak in about seven weeks high 23,990.75 low 23,807.20 * *03*Sensex 76,391.39 down 363.66 Bank Nifty 56,592 down more than half a percent * *04*India VIX rose again to 13.48 price down and fear up four sessions together * *05*Breadth twenty up thirty down inside the Nifty 50 fifteen of sixteen sectors red * *06*Only Auto held green up 0.70 percent on earnings midcaps and smallcaps down about a percent * *07*23,900 took 51,92,135 fresh call writes the single biggest new line on the board * *08*24,000 holds the heaviest call open interest at 1,29,48,195 the biggest on the chain * *09*Puts at 24,000 dumped down 59,32,810 in one session the support abandoned the line * *10*Support rebuilt one strike lower at 23,800 holding 79,09,395 puts plus 25,11,145 fresh * *11*Put call ratio about 0.68 roughly two and a half calls written for every put * *12*Max pain walked down to 23,900 from 24,100 the magnet moved lower with the market * *13*Options line sits 23,900 to 24,000 close 23,869.60 just under it so a break of 23,800 slides * *14*Pros long 28,289 futures long 1,39,845 calls long 1,87,652 puts and added to every leg * *15*FII net short 2,63,082 index futures still net long 5,47,149 stock futures a hedged long * *16*Clients short 7,69,347 puts sold 77,000 more into the fourth down day no protection at all * *17*Brent near 100 dollars up from 92 on Tuesday rupee 96.57 about 39 paise from its record low * *18*Dollar index 101.37 gold about 4045 Bitcoin near 65,600 Ether near 1923 both flat * *19*GIFT Nifty near 23,710 set to open below 23,800 straight onto the level that matters * *20*Weekly band 23,540 to 24,190 straddle about 255 pricing about 310 points for today Show all 20 05In his words The put support at 24,000 did not hold the line, it abandoned it. So a loss of 23,800 does not drift. It slides. When the desk that leads buys both wings, it is telling you the quiet is about to break. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,732 words, about 8 min to read A very good morning, guys. Yesterday I told you the melt up that happened in Asia lasted one morning. This morning it is not even a memory. Overnight America's tech sold off, the Nasdaq down more than 2%, and Asia, the strongest thing on the board all week, opened red across the board. Japan, Korea, Hong Kong, Taiwan, the whole neighbourhood is in the red. And through all of it, one number keeps climbing. Brent crude is knocking on that 100 dollars this morning. 92 on Tuesday, 98 last night, nearly 100 right now. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 88, the pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So yesterday I gave you one question and one line. The question was whether we hold 24,000 and reclaim it or not. Fail to reclaim it by 10 o'clock, I said, and the sellers are in control, and it is 23,961 then 23,900. We never got near 24,000. The high was 23,990 in the first few minutes and that was it. We closed at 23,869, straight through both those numbers. Four out of five of the calls landed yesterday, guys. The band held, the crude and the rupee pair fired again, the no-reclaim call was clean. The one thing I missed, again, was the Sensex support line. I said 76,700, and it cut through it to a low of 76,151. That is two sessions running my Sensex support has broken. I am telling you that out loud because the pattern matters more than the miss. Three and a half out of five, that is what I'm scoring for yesterday. So the close, let's look at what happened yesterday. Nifty at 23,869, down 127 points, a third of a percent. Fourth down day in a row, the longest losing streak in about seven weeks. High of 23,990, low of 23,807. Sensex 76,391, down 360 points. Bank Nifty 56,592, down more than half a percent. 48. Price down and fear up, four sessions together, the same thing is playing out. That combination is the whole story this morning, guys. Breadth was heavy: 20 stocks up, 30 stocks down on the Nifty 50. 15 of the 16 sectors in red. 7%, and that was earnings. The broad market took it worse than the headline, midcaps and smallcaps both down about a percent. And let's look at Nifty's option chain as well, guys. This is where the whole setup lives. Yesterday at the 23,900 strike, sellers wrote 51,92,135 fresh call contracts. That is the single biggest new line anywhere on the board, and it landed about 30 points above where we closed. Fresh sellers parked right on our head. 29 crore calls, the biggest OI on the chain. But watch what happened there. The calls came off, down 4 lakh 97 thousand calls, and the puts at 24,000 were dumped, down 59 lakh in a single session. The put support at 24,000 did not hold the line. It abandoned it. So 24,000 now becomes the resistance, not a place buyers are defending. And the thing is, 24,000 had unwinding on the put side. That means the stop losses were hit yesterday. Underneath us, the support is 23,800, guys. That strike still holds 79 lakh puts and it added 25 lakh fresh yesterday. So put writers stepped down and rebuilt the support one strike lower, at 23,800, not at 24,000 anymore. Below that is 23,700, then the deepest support is at 23,500. Two more numbers seal the tone, guys. Across the whole chain, roughly two and a half calls were written for every put. 68, extremely bearish and under 1. And the max pain, the price that hurts most option buyers, has walked down to about 23,900 from 24,100 the day before. The magnet has moved lower with the market. And here is the mechanic that matters today. There is a line on the options map around 23,900 to 24,000. Above it the market should tend to pin and go quiet; below it the move should speed up instead of settling. So that is the gamma flip zone, guys. We closed at 23,869, sitting just under that line, into the negative gamma territory. So 23,800 can be tested and broken. So watch for it. Now, who is holding what. The official participant file came in, and the professionals, or the proprietary desks, are long 28,289 index futures contracts, 1,39,845 long calls and 1,87,652 long puts, all at once. And here is the tell: they added to every one of those legs yesterday. The futures long roughly doubled from the day before, and they bought more calls and more puts on top of that. The desk is not picking a direction. It is paying for the big move either way, and it got just bigger into this fall. When the desk that leads buys on both wings, it is telling you that this is not a quiet market, it is a market about to break. The foreign institutions, the FIIs, are net short 2,51,000 futures contracts, so they added more shorts. The raw split is 24,274 long against 2,76,140 short, so close to 11 shorts for every long they have added, and the net figure stands at about 2,51,000 net contracts. But the same desk is also net long stock futures, about 5,47,000 future contracts, so it is a hedged long, not an outright bear. What changed is the protection. They stacked more long puts on top. The insurance is growing faster than the book it protects. And the clients, or the retail crowd: long 1,67,000 future contracts, long 1,67,000 calls and short 7,69,000 puts. Sit with that number. They are short more than seven and a half lakh puts, and they sold 77,000 more of them yesterday, into the fourth down day, with crude at 100 and a weekend coming. They are the only one of the three seats with no protection at all. Don't be over there, guys. They are selling insurance right when the pros are paying for it. Proprietary traders braced for a move, foreigners hedged and stacking protection, the crowd naked short, still selling puts on the way. When the three disagree this cleanly, the retail crowd finds out first what is going to happen to their position. And the overnight board is risk off everywhere, guys, and this is the change from yesterday. America's tech led the way down, the Nasdaq off more than 2%, the S&P down more than one. Europe closed red, London, Paris, Frankfurt all lower. And Asia, which was the one bid all week, opened red this morning. The divergence that protected us is gone. Now everybody is offloading together. Commodities are the pressure, and they are getting worse. Brent is near 100 dollars this morning, up from 92. Crude at 100 is a straight tax on an economy that imports almost all of it. It hits the import bill, it hits inflation, it hits the rupee as well, and the margins. So gold slipped to about 4045 dollars. 37. 50. Rising crude and the rupee at the edge of its low is the exact pair that made the last four sessions, and neither has backed off. Crypto is quiet as well, and that itself is a signal. Bitcoin around 65,600, Ether around 1923, both flat while equities sold off. When crypto will not rally on anything, there is no risk appetite to borrow from anywhere. And our own screen: GIFT Nifty is trading at 23,710 this morning, roughly another 140 to 150 points under yesterday's close. So we are set to open lower and open below that 23,800 level, straight on to the level that matters. So what is coming, guys, and here is the map for today. Today, Friday, is not an expiry, but it's a weekly close, so there is no pin holding price in place. It is a clean session into the weekend, and the weekend is the actual risk, because crude and geopolitics do not close when we do. Then Tuesday the 28th is the next weekly expiry, and the monthly expiry as well on Nifty, the same chain I just walked you through. The 23,800 and 23,900 lines are the ones that get settled. Thursday the 30th is the next Sensex weekly, and we are into the last days of the month, so next week we have monthly expiries on Nifty and Sensex as well. And the earnings season is live. Infosys reported after the close, and it is the tell for the week. Profit up more than 12%, but the company trimmed its revenue guidance for the year. A soft print from the biggest name to report so far, and the market had already sold it into the result. Watch how the rest of the heavyweights land. So the plan for today is simple, guys. The plan is simple and it is at one level: 23,800. We are likely to open below it. So reclaim that 23,800, and this four-day oversold tape we are into an oversold region we could see a mild push towards that 23,900 resistance, but the fade should happen over there extremely fast. Lose 23,800 at the close and we are set for the options pricing to move lower, and it is 23,700 first that we are looking for, then the shelf directly moves to 23,540. For the week the options price a band of roughly 23,540 on the lower end to 24,190 on the higher end, so the middle is not the zone to trade, the edges is where you trade. The straddle is about 255 points, so the market is pricing a move of about 310 points for today. And the one thing I will not do into this weekend is sell cheap puts. Do not sell single-leg cheap puts. The crowd is already doing it, and they are going to get hit badly. So with crude at 100, geopolitics open over the two closed days, and the market going into the weekend, being short naked premium into the weekend is one trade I want no part of. So the plan is simple: wait for that 23,800 to reclaim at close and we can see some bounce happening; lose it and we see 23,500 levels getting hit soon. But today I am going to buy at the open, at the first Questions ## EP88, in plain words. What does EP88 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP88, Friday 24 Jul 2026, 13:12, in 8 chapters: Cold open: the melt up is not even a memory; Yesterday's grade: three and a half out of five; The close: fourth down day, fear up four sessions; The Nifty chain: resistance is right on top; Positioning: pros buy both wings, the crowd sells puts naked; The world: risk off everywhere, crude near 100; The week ahead: Tuesday expiry, earnings live; The plan: one level, 23,800. How did the calls in EP88 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 27 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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