--- title: "Flat Expiry, A Chip Crash, And Fed Night | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Korea's stock market just had one of its worst two days in years. The KOSPI fell almost 11 percent and hit a circuit breaker, and it is falling again this" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-07-29" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP91 # Flat expiry, a chip crash, and Fed night at 24,000 KOSPI fell almost 11 percent and hit a circuit breaker its 8th halt this year * **6:39**listen * **2.5/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 29 Jul 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Flat expiry, a chip crash, and Fed night at 24,000 EP91, 29 Jul, 6:39 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes6:39 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 2.5/5 at settlement. **2.5/5**50% **The call.** Flat Expiry A Chip Crash And Fed Night At 24,000 KOSPI Broke Two Circuit Breakers Pros Long Both Wings Hedged Range 23,900 To 24,100 Into The Fed VIX Propped By The Event Wait For The Fed Do Not Sell Vol Client Short Puts * **2**Hit * **1**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **2**Miss Graded the next trading day, 30 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Thu 30 Jul against the Wed close 24,250. The call was hold the 23,900 to 24,100 range into the Fed. The market broke out instead, closed 24250, and the pros rotating long were the reason it ran. Direction under called, roughly a 2.5. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[July 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-07/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 6 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **06**The plan: own the move, let the Fed decideNew weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the 2. **06**The plan: own the move, let the Fed decideNew weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the 3. **06**The plan: own the move, let the Fed decideNew weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the 4. **06**The plan: own the move, let the Fed decideNew weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the 5. **06**The plan: own the move, let the Fed decideNew weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the 6. **06**The plan: own the move, let the Fed decideNew weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the Cold open: korea crashed, India shrugged **11 percent**Yesterday it fell almost Korea's stock market just had one of its worst two days in years. Yesterday it fell almost 11 percent and hit a circuit breaker. This morning it is down another 7. Samsung and SK Hynix, the giants that make the world's memory chips, in freefall. And yet, one Read the chapter The flat expiry that lied **23,985**Nifty closed **24,000**Closed four points Yesterday was the monthly expiry. Nifty closed 23,985, four points under 24,000, in a range of about 4 points the whole day. On the screen nothing happened, the kind of close you forget by dinner. But expiry closes lie. The real action was in the roll, in what Read the chapter Positioning: the pros bought both sides **55,000**Same time **63,000**Time, long calls **12.44**Weeks, India VIX **6 lakh**Long calls and short Read the August book and one thing jumps out. The proprietary desks bought calls and puts at the same time, 55,000 long calls and 63,000 long puts. Not a bet on up or down, a bet on a move. Long gamma, put on while volatility was the cheapest in weeks, India Read the chapter The move arrived, elsewhere **11 percent**Circuit breaker, down almost Overnight, the move showed up, just not here. Korea's KOSPI hit a circuit breaker, down almost 11 percent, its 8th halt this year. Samsung fell 13, SK Hynix 15. Taiwan bleeding, Japan down two days running. The trigger was a global scare in AI chips, a crack Read the chapter India decouples: services, not silicon **3.3 percent**Burned, Indian IT rose **4.5**Percent, TCS **24,219**Half percent **24,100**Firm open India is not a chip market. Our IT is services, TCS and Infosys, the companies that run on chips, not the ones that make them. While Korea burned, Indian IT rose 3.3 percent, TCS up 4.5 on earnings. Two chip stories, one where they build them and one where Read the chapter The plan: own the move, let the Fed decide **24,100**Walls stack **24,200**Big one **24,300**Big one **23,900**Writers are parked New weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the big one at 24,200, then 24,300. Below, the put writers are parked at 23,900, 23,800 and 23,700. The straddle prices about 299 points for the week. This Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: korea crashed, India shrugged Korea's stock market just had one of its worst two days in years. Yesterday it fell almost 11 percent and hit a circuit breaker. This morning it is down another 7. Samsung and SK Hynix, the giants that make the world's memory chips, in freefall. And yet, one sea away, India is set to open higher. That gap, between a chip market in crisis and an index that just shrugged, is the whole story today. ### *02*The flat expiry that lied Yesterday was the monthly expiry. Nifty closed 23,985, four points under 24,000, in a range of about 4 points the whole day. On the screen nothing happened, the kind of close you forget by dinner. But expiry closes lie. The real action was in the roll, in what every big desk carried into the new August series, and that book told a completely different story from the flat number on the screen. ### *03*Positioning: the pros bought both sides Read the August book and one thing jumps out. The proprietary desks bought calls and puts at the same time, 55,000 long calls and 63,000 long puts. Not a bet on up or down, a bet on a move. Long gamma, put on while volatility was the cheapest in weeks, India VIX at 12.44. The retail crowd did the exact opposite, long calls and short 6 lakh puts, selling insurance into the same cheap vol. The foreign funds covered about 61,000 futures shorts on the roll, bought downside protection, sold the upside, and bought 755 crore of cash. Going into today, the pros are paying up for a move, the crowd is short volatility, and there is a Fed decision tonight. ### *04*The move arrived, elsewhere Overnight, the move showed up, just not here. Korea's KOSPI hit a circuit breaker, down almost 11 percent, its 8th halt this year. Samsung fell 13, SK Hynix 15. Taiwan bleeding, Japan down two days running. The trigger was a global scare in AI chips, a crack in the chip leader across the ocean, a report about hundreds of billions in circular financing, and word that China had cracked a chip technology the West thought it owned. The desks that bought that straddle yesterday own this move. That is exactly what long gamma is for. You do not predict the direction, you buy the movement cheap the night before, and you let the world hand it to you. ### *05*India decouples: services, not silicon India is not a chip market. Our IT is services, TCS and Infosys, the companies that run on chips, not the ones that make them. While Korea burned, Indian IT rose 3.3 percent, TCS up 4.5 on earnings. Two chip stories, one where they build them and one where they use them, and only one is on fire. GIFT Nifty is up half a percent at 24,219, pointing to a firm open around 24,100 to 24,150. ### *06*The plan: own the move, let the Fed decide New weekly, expiring 4 August. 24,000 is still the pin and the magnet. Above it the walls stack, 24,100, the big one at 24,200, then 24,300. Below, the put writers are parked at 23,900, 23,800 and 23,700. The straddle prices about 299 points for the week. This is not a day to sell cheap volatility, the pros are not selling it and now you know why. There is a live chip crash to the east and a Fed decision tonight at 11:30 our time. Own your optionality, respect 24,100 as the first wall, trade the 23,900 to 24,100 box, keep protection on, and let the Fed pick the direction. When the pros go long both sides of the chain the night before a known event, do not argue with them. 04Key takeaways ## 15 things to carry into the session. * *01*KOSPI fell almost 11 percent and hit a circuit breaker its 8th halt this year * *02*Samsung down 13 SK Hynix down 15 the chip giants in freefall * *03*Monthly expiry closed 23,985 four points under 24,000 in a 4 point range * *04*Pros bought 55,000 calls and 63,000 puts together long gamma into the Fed * *05*India VIX 12.44 the cheapest volatility in weeks when the pros bought it * *06*Crowd long calls short 6 lakh puts selling insurance into cheap vol * *07*FII covered 61,000 futures shorts on the roll bought downside sold upside * *08*FII bought 755 crore of cash alongside the hedge * *09*Indian IT rose 3.3 percent TCS up 4.5 on earnings while Korea burned * *10*GIFT 24,219 up half a percent firm open 24,100 to 24,150 * *11*24,000 still the pin walls at 24,100 24,200 24,300 supports 23,900 23,800 23,700 * *12*Weekly straddle pricing about 299 points of movement * *13*Fed decision tonight 11:30 IST decides if the gap holds * *14*Do not sell cheap volatility the pros are not selling it * *15*Trade the 23,900 to 24,100 box keep protection let the Fed pick the direction Show all 15 05In his words That gap, between a chip market in crisis and an index that just shrugged, is the whole story today. But expiry closes lie. The real action was in the roll. That is not a bet on up. That is not a bet on down. That is a bet on a move. Questions ## EP91, in plain words. What does EP91 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP91, Wednesday 29 Jul 2026, 6:39, in 6 chapters: Cold open: korea crashed, India shrugged; The flat expiry that lied; Positioning: the pros bought both sides; The move arrived, elsewhere; India decouples: services, not silicon; The plan: own the move, let the Fed decide. How did the calls in EP91 score?Grade 2.5/5 (50 percent): 2 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 2 miss. Graded the next trading day, 30 Jul 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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