--- title: "The Calm Before The Governor. The Pros Are | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Three straight up days, and the market walks into Monday stalled dead under 24,400. Friday Nifty closed 24,383.60, up 66 points, after poking 24,429 intraday" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-03" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP94 # The calm before the governor. The pros are quietly buying the tail Day one of the single closing auction for every F&O stock * **12:39**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Mon 3 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing The calm before the governor. The pros are quietly buying the tail EP94, 3 Aug, 12:39 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes12:39 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** Day One Of The Closing Auction Low Vol Pin Under 24,400 Into Tue Expiry And RBI Wed Pro Long BOTH Calls +1,55,914 And Puts +1,81,150 Long Vol Client Short 6,87,620 Puts FII Hedged Long Covered 13,499 Net Short 1,73,113 Chain PCR 1.49 Max Pain 24,350 Straddle 172 Band 24,168 To 24,598 Put Wall 24,000 Call Wall 24,600 Lid Rolled Up VIX 11.76 Three Month Low Edu Market Prices Uncertainty Not Events Do Not Read A Strange Close As A Signal * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded against the 4 Aug 2026 session; on the public trail from 10 Aug 2026. The grader's noteGraded Mon 3 Aug EOD. The published 24,774 close was a mirage from the day one auction candle, roughly 190 phantom points, the real market near 24,586 with the futures basis minus 187.95 and the Sensex confirming. The episode pre warned do not read a strange close as a signal on the exact day it landed. Real tape, IT led plus 3.28 percent, the writers defended the wall as leaned. Roughly a four. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 6 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **06**The plan: a binary test at the WallOn the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up 2. **06**The plan: a binary test at the WallOn the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up 3. **06**The plan: a binary test at the WallOn the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up 4. **06**The plan: a binary test at the WallOn the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up 5. **06**The plan: a binary test at the WallOn the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up 6. **06**The plan: a binary test at the WallOn the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up Cold open: the calm before the governor **24,400**Days, stalled dead From today the exchange settles every futures stock at a single auction price at the bell, the first session your whole career has traded under the new rule. But that is not the biggest thing on the calendar. The market walks in on three straight up days Read the chapter The tape: three up days, lid held **24,383.60**Friday Nifty closed **24,429**Intraday it poked **24,400**Poked to above **2.59 percent**Week Nifty added Friday Nifty closed 24,383.60, up 66, the third straight up day. Intraday it poked to 24,429, above 24,400, then got sold straight back to close under it. The lid held on the close, again. On the week Nifty added 2.59 percent, the best weekly recovery of all Read the chapter Positioning: the desks are not acting calm **1,55,000**Bought both sides **2,00,000**Added and more **13,499**Foreign funds covered **1,73,000**Still net short The pros came off their futures long to flat and then did something you only do when you expect movement, they bought both sides, over 1,55,000 long calls added and more than 2,00,000 long puts, flipping their put book from short to long in a session. Long Read the chapter Cash, overnight and commodities: nothing fights the open **277 crore**Bought cash, the foreigners **2260 crore**Bigger bid **32,000**Net buyers **25,373**Closed at records, Nasdaq Friday both institutions bought cash, the foreigners 277 crore and the domestics the bigger bid at 2260 crore. On the year the domestics are net buyers of over 32,000 crore, the home bid is the floor. Wall Street closed at records, S&P 7489, Nasdaq 25,373 Read the chapter The edu: the market prices uncertainty, not events **4.38 percent**Because June inflation ran Why is the fear gauge at a three month low two days before a rate decision? Because the market does not pay for events, it pays for uncertainty. A decision where 68 of 72 economists agree on a hold is a formality, so it earns almost no premium. A jobs number Read the chapter The plan: a binary test at the Wall **24,000**Put wall **24,200**Friday, covering **24,300**Friday, covering **24,400**Covering and and stacking On the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up on Friday, covering 24,200 and 24,300 and stacking 24,400 and 24,600, so 24,600 is now the heaviest wall of the week. Max pain 24,350, PCR 1.49, the Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the calm before the governor From today the exchange settles every futures stock at a single auction price at the bell, the first session your whole career has traded under the new rule. But that is not the biggest thing on the calendar. The market walks in on three straight up days, stalled dead under 24,400, with the fear gauge asleep at a three month low, and in two days the central bank decides rates. Under that dead calm tape the professional desks spent Friday quietly buying insurance on both sides, calls and puts, while the crowd sold it to them. And this morning the market is gapping straight up into that ceiling. Cheap options, a hard wall, a gap right at it, and a governor on the clock. ### *02*The tape: three up days, lid held Friday Nifty closed 24,383.60, up 66, the third straight up day. Intraday it poked to 24,429, above 24,400, then got sold straight back to close under it. The lid held on the close, again. On the week Nifty added 2.59 percent, the best weekly recovery of all of July. And India VIX fell to 11.76, a three month low. Price up while fear died, hold that pairing. Breadth improved, twenty eight of the fifty rose and the broader market went green. The muscle came from financial services up nearly 3 percent and autos up 1.6, the Bajaj twins the stars, Bajaj Finance up 8 and Finserv up 6 on results. The drag stayed IT, down over 1.5 percent, and FMCG with ITC off 1.5. ### *03*Positioning: the desks are not acting calm The pros came off their futures long to flat and then did something you only do when you expect movement, they bought both sides, over 1,55,000 long calls added and more than 2,00,000 long puts, flipping their put book from short to long in a session. Long calls plus long puts is a bet on a big move either way, put on while volatility is dirt cheap. The foreign funds covered 13,499 futures shorts, still net short about 1,73,000, stayed long a huge stock book, short calls, long puts, a protected long. And the retail crowd sold another 2,17,000 puts, now net short nearly 7,00,000. The smart money bought protection on both sides at a three month vol low. The crowd sold it to them. ### *04*Cash, overnight and commodities: nothing fights the open Friday both institutions bought cash, the foreigners 277 crore and the domestics the bigger bid at 2260 crore. On the year the domestics are net buyers of over 32,000 crore, the home bid is the floor. Wall Street closed at records, S&P 7489, Nasdaq 25,373, Amazon up 15 percent. GIFT is up about 180 points pointing to a gap up near 24,560 straight into the 24,500 to 24,600 wall, against a soft Asia, Japan down over 1 percent and Korea down more than 3. Crude reversed hard, Brent back near 84, off almost five percent, gold firm near 4060, the rupee steady near 95.40. One caution, the US strength comes on rising long term rates, the thirty year near its highest since 2007. ### *05*The edu: the market prices uncertainty, not events Why is the fear gauge at a three month low two days before a rate decision? Because the market does not pay for events, it pays for uncertainty. A decision where 68 of 72 economists agree on a hold is a formality, so it earns almost no premium. A jobs number, a genuine two way shock, stays expensive to the print. The trap, when everyone crowds one side of a consensus, the only thing that can hurt them is the outcome nobody hedged. This week that tail is a hawkish hold, live because June inflation ran 4.38 percent, the hottest since December 2024. And the pros are already positioned for exactly that, buying puts and calls while they are cheap. Not predicting a hike, buying the lottery ticket because it is on sale. ### *06*The plan: a binary test at the Wall On the Tuesday weekly chain the put wall is 24,000 with a shelf at 24,200. The call writers rolled the lid up on Friday, covering 24,200 and 24,300 and stacking 24,400 and 24,600, so 24,600 is now the heaviest wall of the week. Max pain 24,350, PCR 1.49, the weekly pricing only about 215 points, a band of 24,168 to 24,598. We do not open asking to reclaim 24,400, we open near 24,560 at the doorstep of the wall itself. Push through 24,600 on rising open interest and next stop is 24,700 and above. If the writers defend and the gap sells back under 24,500 then 24,400, the pin reasserts and 24,350 is the magnet into expiry. The lean is the writers defend, but the pros just told you the override, own a little cheap optionality into Wednesday, do not sell this premium naked. And day one of the auction close, do not read a strange close as a signal. 04Key takeaways ## 16 things to carry into the session. * *01*Day one of the single closing auction for every F&O stock * *02*Nifty 24,383.60 up 66 the third straight up day poked 24,429 sold back under 24,400 * *03*Best week of July Nifty up 2.59 percent Sensex 2.68 * *04*India VIX 11.76 a three month low price up while fear died * *05*Bajaj Finance up 8 percent Finserv up 6 financial services up nearly 3 * *06*IT the drag down over 1.5 percent TCS and Infosys down more than 2 * *07*Pros bought both sides 1,55,914 calls added and 1,81,150 puts flipped long * *08*FII covered 13,499 shorts still net short 1,73,113 with 4,53,770 long puts * *09*Clients sold 2,17,000 more puts net short nearly 6,87,620 * *10*DII cash bid 2260 crore the home bid is the floor on the year plus 32,000 crore * *11*GIFT up 180 gap up near 24,560 straight into the 24,500 to 24,600 wall * *12*Brent reversed to 84 down almost five percent a tailwind again * *13*Chain put wall 24,000 shelf 24,200 lid rolled up to 24,600 the heaviest * *14*Max pain 24,350 PCR 1.49 weekly band 24,168 to 24,598 about 215 points * *15*June inflation 4.38 percent the hottest since December 2024 the hawkish tail * *16*Own cheap optionality into Wednesday do not sell premium naked Show all 16 05In his words The real question today is not which way. It is whether the pros know something the calm does not. Price up while fear died. Hold that pairing, because it is the whole plot. The smart money spent Friday buying protection on both sides. The crowd spent Friday selling it to them. Questions ## EP94, in plain words. What does EP94 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP94, Monday 3 Aug 2026, 12:39, in 6 chapters: Cold open: the calm before the governor; The tape: three up days, lid held; Positioning: the desks are not acting calm; Cash, overnight and commodities: nothing fights the open; The edu: the market prices uncertainty, not events; The plan: a binary test at the Wall. How did the calls in EP94 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded against the 4 Aug 2026 session. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. 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