--- title: "Two Glitches, And Now The Governor. The | The Tanmay Edge" description: "For four episodes the story was the same: the market was pricing calm far too cheaply into one day. That day is today. At 10 o'clock the Reserve Bank decides" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-05" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP96 # Two glitches, and now the governor. The cheap insurance just got expensive RBI decides at 10 am the event the whole week leaned toward * **10:12**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 5 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Two glitches, and now the governor. The cheap insurance just got expensive EP96, 5 Aug, 10:12 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:12 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** RBI Day Two Glitches And Now The Governor Vol Expansion Arrived VIX 12.19 Straddle Doubled Pros Took The Long Vol Bet Off FII Protected Long 4,86,000 Puts Cash +2,446 DII Sold 936 Grade Off The Real 24,516 Not The 24,614 Print Max Pain 24,500 Call Wall 24,600 Put Floor 24,000 Base Case Hold Then IV Crush Tail Hawkish Hold June CPI 4.38 Edu The Event IV Crush Sell The Calm Back After The Print * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded against the 6 Aug 2026 session; on the public trail from 10 Aug 2026. The grader's noteGraded Wed 5 Aug EOD. The RBI held 5.25 neutral as consensus expected and the market faded the event and bought the dip. The miss worth owning, the textbook IV crush did not come, vol stayed bid into the untested first Sensex auction expiry, the correction carried into EP97. Roughly a four. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 6 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **06**The plan: two roads after ten O'ClockBefore ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street 2. **06**The plan: two roads after ten O'ClockBefore ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street 3. **06**The plan: two roads after ten O'ClockBefore ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street 4. **06**The plan: two roads after ten O'ClockBefore ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street 5. **06**The plan: two roads after ten O'ClockBefore ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street 6. **06**The plan: two roads after ten O'ClockBefore ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street Cold open: the waiting ends at ten For four episodes the message was one thing, this market was pricing calm far too cheaply into a single day. The calm is gone. The fear gauge has climbed three sessions in a row, the closing bell has misfired two days running, and today the waiting ends. At ten o'clock the Reserve Bank decides on rates. The pros who quietly bought cheap insurance last week are sitting pretty. The crowd who sold it to them is Read the chapter The arc: the vol expansion arrived **11.76**Fear gauge sat **8 percent**Volatility was crushed **12.19**Gauge has climbed Last Monday the fear gauge sat at 11.76, a three month low, and option volatility was crushed under 8 percent two days before a rate decision. The call was that it was too cheap, and that the professional desks were buying insurance on both sides while it was Read the chapter The glitch, two days running **188 points**Printed the Nifty **24,614**Screen says **24,516**Sensex was closer **24,500**Settlement above The new closing auction has now misfired two days in a row. Monday it printed the Nifty 188 points too high. Yesterday, on weekly expiry day, it did it again, spiking the settlement about 120 to 150 points above where the market traded into the close. The Read the chapter The real tape and positioning: who is ready **4,86,000**Futures but holding nearly **2446 crore**Bought another **936 crore**Domestics sold On the real tape yesterday was a quiet down day, the real Nifty easing about a third of a percent, Reliance and HDFC Bank doing the damage, breadth weak at thirty five of fifty lower. A tired tape waiting for the governor. The foreign funds walk in as a Read the chapter The edu: the event IV crush, the mirror lesson Last Monday the lesson was buy the cheap insurance. Today it is the opposite. The event premium that was cheap is now fully in the price, the straddle has doubled. Buy an option at 9:15 betting on a big RBI reaction and you pay peak event premium for a decision 68 of 72 economists call a boring hold. The moment the governor confirms the hold that premium evaporates, instantly, because the uncertainty it insured Read the chapter The plan: two roads after ten O'Clock **24,600**Gap up clears **24,750**Crude near GIFT **24,500**Levels, max pain **24,000**Wall the put floor Before ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street ripped, Asia ripping, crude near 79, GIFT near 24,750, but do not trust a breakout printed before the governor speaks. Levels, max pain 24,500 right Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the waiting ends at ten For four episodes the message was one thing, this market was pricing calm far too cheaply into a single day. The calm is gone. The fear gauge has climbed three sessions in a row, the closing bell has misfired two days running, and today the waiting ends. At ten o'clock the Reserve Bank decides on rates. The pros who quietly bought cheap insurance last week are sitting pretty. The crowd who sold it to them is sweating. Today is the event the whole week has been leaning toward. ### *02*The arc: the vol expansion arrived Last Monday the fear gauge sat at 11.76, a three month low, and option volatility was crushed under 8 percent two days before a rate decision. The call was that it was too cheap, and that the professional desks were buying insurance on both sides while it was on sale. Since then the fear gauge has climbed to 12.19, the internal volatility read has gone from about 8 to almost 14, and the weekly straddle has roughly doubled. The vol expansion flagged is here. The pros were right and they were early. Today the reason they were buying finally arrives. ### *03*The glitch, two days running The new closing auction has now misfired two days in a row. Monday it printed the Nifty 188 points too high. Yesterday, on weekly expiry day, it did it again, spiking the settlement about 120 to 150 points above where the market traded into the close. The screen says 24,614, the real level from the futures and the Sensex was closer to 24,516. And it stung because options settle on that closing price. The auction dragged the settlement above the 24,500 strike where the market was quietly pinning, so traders who correctly sold the 24,500 straddle got run over at the bell, by a print, not by the market. Grade everything off the real level near 24,516. ### *04*The real tape and positioning: who is ready On the real tape yesterday was a quiet down day, the real Nifty easing about a third of a percent, Reliance and HDFC Bank doing the damage, breadth weak at thirty five of fifty lower. A tired tape waiting for the governor. The foreign funds walk in as a protected long, short index futures but holding nearly 4,86,000 long puts, and they bought another 2446 crore of stock. The domestics sold about 936 crore for once. And the pros have taken the long vol bet off, turning net short across futures, calls and puts, because their cheap options already did the job as the fear gauge climbed. The smart money owned the move before it was priced, and now that it is priced they are lightening up. ### *05*The edu: the event IV crush, the mirror lesson Last Monday the lesson was buy the cheap insurance. Today it is the opposite. The event premium that was cheap is now fully in the price, the straddle has doubled. Buy an option at 9:15 betting on a big RBI reaction and you pay peak event premium for a decision 68 of 72 economists call a boring hold. The moment the governor confirms the hold that premium evaporates, instantly, because the uncertainty it insured against is gone. That is the IV crush. The edge was owning protection last week when it was cheap. If anything, the trade after ten o'clock on a confirmed hold is to sell the inflated premium back, not buy it. ### *06*The plan: two roads after ten O'Clock Before ten, respect the holding pattern. The gap up clears the 24,600 wall on the global tailwind, Wall Street ripped, Asia ripping, crude near 79, GIFT near 24,750, but do not trust a breakout printed before the governor speaks. Levels, max pain 24,500 right at the real level, the biggest call wall 24,600, the put floor 24,000. After ten, two roads. Road one, the base case hold, the vol crushes and the market settles into a range, drifting back toward the 24,500 to 24,600 pin as straddle sellers get paid. Road two, the tail, a hawkish hold, live because June inflation ran 4.38 percent, the one outcome nobody hedged and exactly what the foreign funds own 4,86,000 puts against. That opens 24,300 then the 24,000 floor. Trade the reaction, not the anticipation, and watch the 3:30 auction a third time. 04Key takeaways ## 17 things to carry into the session. * *01*RBI decides at 10 am the event the whole week leaned toward * *02*Fear gauge climbed three straight sessions 11.76 to 12.19 * *03*Internal vol read ran from about 8 to almost 14 the straddle roughly doubled * *04*Closing auction misfired two days running Monday 188 points high * *05*Expiry settlement printed 24,614 real level near 24,516 from futures and Sensex * *06*Settlement dragged above the 24,500 strike straddle sellers run over at the bell * *07*Real tape a quiet down day about a third of a percent breadth 35 of 50 lower * *08*FII protected long short futures holding 4,86,000 long puts * *09*FII bought 2446 crore of stock DII sold 936 for once * *10*Pros took the long vol bet off net short futures calls and puts * *11*Wall Street ripped S&P up 1.8 Nasdaq up 2.5 Japan up 3 Korea up 4 * *12*Crude near 79 dollars its lowest in weeks a tailwind on decision morning * *13*GIFT near 24,750 a gap up clearing the 24,600 wall before the governor speaks * *14*Max pain 24,500 biggest call wall 24,600 put floor 24,000 * *15*Base case hold then IV crush and a drift to the 24,500 to 600 pin * *16*The tail a hawkish hold June inflation 4.38 percent hottest since Dec 2024 * *17*Watch the 3:30 auction a third time it has fooled everybody twice Show all 17 05In his words The pros who quietly bought cheap insurance last week are sitting pretty. The crowd who sold it to them is sweating. The vol expansion I flagged is here. The pros were right, and they were early. The traders who correctly sold the 24,500 straddle got run over at the bell, by a print, not by the market. Questions ## EP96, in plain words. What does EP96 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP96, Wednesday 5 Aug 2026, 10:12, in 6 chapters: Cold open: the waiting ends at ten; The arc: the vol expansion arrived; The glitch, two days running; The real tape and positioning: who is ready; The edu: the event IV crush, the mirror lesson; The plan: two roads after ten O'Clock. How did the calls in EP96 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded against the 6 Aug 2026 session. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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