--- title: "Expiry Settles 128 Below Max Pain, The | The Tanmay Edge" description: "The 100th episode's exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a 24,500 to 24,600 box and the market tore the floor off it in the first thirty minutes: the" source_url: "https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-12" --- The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP101 # Expiry settles 128 below max pain, the pros complete a 3 day vol masterclass, 24,500 is the new battleground Expiry settled 24,471 a full 128 points below the 24,600 max pain * **10:45**listen * **4/5**graded at settlement * **Wed 12 Aug 2026**aired, Season 2 Now playing Expiry settles 128 below max pain, the pros complete a 3 day vol masterclass, 24,500 is the new battleground EP101, 12 Aug, 10:45 1x 0:00Chapter marks are estimated from the notes10:45 The host did not serve the audio here. Listen on [Apple Podcasts](https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-tanmay-edge-indias-pre-market-edge-5-minutes/id1824088016) or [Spotify](https://open.spotify.com/show/0F755kaD5hggGDjy26Sz33). 01Scorecard ## 4/5 at settlement. **4/5**80% **The call.** Post Trick Question Expiry Settled 24,471 128 Below Max Pain Second Pin Failure In Three Edu Max Pain Tendency Not Law Vol Cycle Complete 10 To 12.2 To 9.95 VIX 11.8 Pros Dumped Long Vol Book Calls 2.14 L To 2,000 Crowd Bought 2.09 L Calls At The Lows Still Short 5.2 L Puts FII Put Book High 4.85 L 4 To 1 Hedged Long New Battleground 24,500 51 L Calls 43 L Puts Straddle 281 Cheap Again Brent 89.38 60c From The 90 Trigger Plan Patience Reclaim 24,500 On Close Or Rallies For Selling Below 24,400 Air To 24,200 Thu Sensex CAS Round 3 Keep Risk Defined * **4**Hit * **0**Partial * **0**Mechanical * **1**Miss Graded the next trading day, 13 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. The grader's noteGraded Thu 13 Aug against the Wed close 24,435. The call was 24,500 is the day and if it fails rallies are for selling with 24,400 first and air below. It played out, the open at 24,472 was the high, the tape sold to 24,266 and the 24,400 zone framed the day. The miss was the size of the local bid that caught it, a 5,842 crore DII day that built a V shape back over 24,400. Four out of five. [The whole season, graded](/podcast/#trail)[August 2026 archive](/podcast/2026-08/)[Methodology](/track-record) 02In this episode ## 7 chapters, the numbers pulled out. 1. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a 2. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a 3. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a 4. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a 5. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a 6. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a 7. **07**The plan: patience, one number, risk definedAfter a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a Cold open: the exam had a trick question **24,500**Mapped box **24,600**Mapped box **34 points**Capped the damage The 100th episode exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a box, 24,500 to 24,600, and the market tore the floor off it in the first 30 minutes. The plan stopped out, and I will grade that straight. Because what survived Tuesday was not the view, it was the Read the chapter The tape: the floor broke, the magnet lost **24,471**Expiry day, Nifty closed **24,429**Air pocket, fell **24,430**Morning, then ground sideways **24,480**Ground sideways Tuesday's expiry day, Nifty closed 24,471, down 112, about half a percent. The open at 24,575 was the high of the day. It broke 24,500 inside the first half hour, hit an air pocket, fell to 24,429 by late morning, then ground sideways 24,430 to 24,480. 24,600 Read the chapter The masterclass: three sessions, one complete cycle **10 percent**Front week traded **22 percent**Monday, front IV exploded **12.2**IV exploded percent **9.95**Implied crushed back Friday the front week traded under 10 percent volatility while the crowd sold puts, and the podcast said do not sell it. Monday, front IV exploded 22 percent to 12.2 and the curve inverted, and we said the smart money was long both sides. Tuesday, expiry day Read the chapter Positioning: the crowd bought what the pros sold **2.09**Breakdown day retail bought **1.89**Taking them net long **5.2**Calls, while sitting short **4.85**Again, put book On the breakdown day retail bought 2.09 lakh calls, taking them net long 1.89 lakh calls, while sitting short 5.2 lakh puts. After a 112 point fall, the crowd is positioned maximum bullish in both directions. The FIIs added again, put book at 4.85 lakh Read the chapter The new board: 24,500 is the battleground **24,500**Now sits **24,600**Old magnet **40 lakh**Single day **24 lakh**Lakh fresh calls On the 18 August week, max pain now sits at the 24,500 to 550 level. The old magnet at 24,600 is history, the new one is one floor down, and both sides piled onto it in a single day, 40 lakh fresh calls and 24 lakh fresh puts at 24,500, taking it to 51 lakh Read the chapter The world: oil 60 cents from the trigger **0.6**Closed soft, Nasdaq **3.7 percent**Strong, Korea up massive **0.5**Percent, Taiwan **89.38**Most, Brent The US closed soft, Nasdaq down 0.6. But Asia woke up strong, Korea up a massive 3.7 percent, Taiwan up 0.5, the Nikkei green at fresh highs, only Hong Kong red. Gold climbed back to 4402. And the one that matters most, Brent is at 89.38, 60 cents from the 90 Read the chapter The plan: patience, one number, risk defined **24,500**Day is one number **24,600**Pin engine restarts **51 lakh**First fight against **24,400**First below After a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a closing basis and the pin engine restarts, with 24,600 the first fight against 51 lakh fresh calls. Fail at 24,500 and rallies are for selling, playing Read the chapter 03The notes ## Chapter by chapter. ### *01*Cold open: the exam had a trick question The 100th episode exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a box, 24,500 to 24,600, and the market tore the floor off it in the first 30 minutes. The plan stopped out, and I will grade that straight. Because what survived Tuesday was not the view, it was the process. A defined risk structure that capped the damage at 34 points, a stop loss that fired exactly where it was supposed to, and one conditional, oil, that called the break before it happened. And quietly, the smartest desk on the street just completed a three day volatility masterclass. ### *02*The tape: the floor broke, the magnet lost Tuesday's expiry day, Nifty closed 24,471, down 112, about half a percent. The open at 24,575 was the high of the day. It broke 24,500 inside the first half hour, hit an air pocket, fell to 24,429 by late morning, then ground sideways 24,430 to 24,480. 24,600, Monday's magnet, was never tested. The Sensex lost 388 to 78,154, and the weekly expiry settled at 24,471, 128 points below the 24,600 max pain. The first lesson, max pain is a tendency, not a law. It tells you where the magnet is, not whether the magnet wins. The moment price broke the floor of the box with force, the magnet stopped mattering, and the crowd's 5.5 lakh short puts became the fuel we warned about. The low, 24,429, landed exactly in the air to 24,400 zone episode 100 mapped. ### *03*The masterclass: three sessions, one complete cycle Friday the front week traded under 10 percent volatility while the crowd sold puts, and the podcast said do not sell it. Monday, front IV exploded 22 percent to 12.2 and the curve inverted, and we said the smart money was long both sides. Tuesday, expiry day, implied crushed back to 9.95, the VIX fell almost four percent to 11.8, and the curve normalized. And the proprietary desks, from the official participant file, were long 2.14 lakh calls and 0.72 lakh puts on Monday night. By Tuesday's close, 2000 calls, minus 13,000 puts. They dumped the entire long vol book into the expiry, selling the exact spike they bought cheap three days earlier. Buy volatility when it is boring, sell it when it is terrifying. That is the whole trade, executed across three sessions in plain sight of anyone reading the data. ### *04*Positioning: the crowd bought what the pros sold On the breakdown day retail bought 2.09 lakh calls, taking them net long 1.89 lakh calls, while sitting short 5.2 lakh puts. After a 112 point fall, the crowd is positioned maximum bullish in both directions. The FIIs added again, put book at 4.85 lakh contracts, a fresh high, short 1.98 lakh calls, short 1.56 lakh index futures against 6.17 lakh stock futures, still a four to one hedged long. Cash flows were a token, FII plus 259 crore, DII plus 255. The armies have simply moved down one floor and reloaded. ### *05*The new board: 24,500 is the battleground On the 18 August week, max pain now sits at the 24,500 to 550 level. The old magnet at 24,600 is history, the new one is one floor down, and both sides piled onto it in a single day, 40 lakh fresh calls and 24 lakh fresh puts at 24,500, taking it to 51 lakh calls against 43 lakh puts. The deep put base sits at 24,000 with 58 lakh. Above, the resistance is 24,600 and 24,700, 45 and 48 lakh. The weekly straddle costs around 281 for 7 days at a 10 percent implied. That is back to cheap. Sounds familiar? It is Friday's setup all over again, 100 points lower. And the sectors told you where the fear went, India Internet up 1.9, Pharma 1, IT 0.6 against Cement, FMCG and Metal down, defensive rotation, the third different leadership in three sessions. Nobody is committing. ### *06*The world: oil 60 cents from the trigger The US closed soft, Nasdaq down 0.6. But Asia woke up strong, Korea up a massive 3.7 percent, Taiwan up 0.5, the Nikkei green at fresh highs, only Hong Kong red. Gold climbed back to 4402. And the one that matters most, Brent is at 89.38, 60 cents from the 90 dollar trigger mark set on record two days back. The rupee closed 95.44, its weakest, the oil tax showing. GIFT Nifty is at 24,556, about 85 points above the close, so the market wants to open above 24,500 and the reclaim test comes at the opening bell itself. On the book, the All Cap gave back just 0.08 percent on a minus 0.46 day, alpha widening every day this week, 0.59 to 0.85 to 1.01. ### *07*The plan: patience, one number, risk defined After a stop loss day the honest bias is patience, and the whole day is one number, 24,500. Reclaim it on a closing basis and the pin engine restarts, with 24,600 the first fight against 51 lakh fresh calls. Fail at 24,500 and rallies are for selling, playing mean reversion toward the 24,500 to 550 zone, with 24,400 first below, and under 24,400 the crowd's 5.2 lakh short puts start burning with air toward 24,200, the acceleration can be very fast. If Brent takes out 90, the downside gets the benefit of the doubt, do not fight the tape that day. Tomorrow is the Sensex weekly expiry, the third run of the new closing auction, keep the auction rules loaded. Keep the risk defined, do not play naked, Tuesday just showed you why, the traders who survived the trick were the ones who paid 34 rupees to cap it. And a request, today is the no trading day protest against the STT increase and the closing auction, if you want to support the cause, keep a no trading day today. 04Key takeaways ## 22 things to carry into the session. * *01*Expiry settled 24,471 a full 128 points below the 24,600 max pain * *02*Second max pain failure in three expiries tendency not law * *03*Nifty down 112 the 24,575 open was the high broke 24,500 in 30 minutes * *04*The low 24,429 landed exactly in the air to 24,400 zone episode 100 mapped * *05*Sensex lost 388 to 78,154 24,600 was never tested * *06*Vol cycle complete under 10 Friday exploded to 12.2 Monday crushed to 9.95 Tuesday * *07*VIX fell almost 4 percent to 11.8 and the curve normalized * *08*Pros dumped the long vol book 2.14 lakh calls to 2000 puts to minus 13,000 * *09*Retail bought 2.09 lakh calls into the breakdown net long 1.89 lakh * *10*Crowd still short 5.2 lakh puts maximum bullish both directions at the lows * *11*FII put book fresh high 4.85 lakh short 1.98 lakh calls 4 to 1 hedged long * *12*Cash a token FII plus 259 crore DII plus 255 crore * *13*New battleground 24,500 with 51 lakh calls vs 43 lakh puts built in one day * *14*Deep put base 24,000 with 58 lakh resistance 24,600 and 24,700 45 and 48 lakh * *15*New week straddle 281 at 10 percent implied back to cheap again * *16*Defensive rotation India Internet up 1.9 Pharma 1 IT 0.6 third leadership in three days * *17*Brent 89.38 just 60 cents from the on record 90 trigger rupee weakest 95.44 * *18*Korea up 3.7 percent Nikkei fresh highs GIFT 24,556 reclaim test at the bell * *19*All Cap alpha widened every day 0.59 to 0.85 to 1.01 this week * *20*Plan reclaim 24,500 on close restarts the pin fail and rallies are for selling * *21*Below 24,400 the crowds short puts burn with air to 24,200 * *22*Thu 13 Aug Sensex weekly expiry auction round three keep rules loaded Show all 22 05In his words The 100th episode exam had a trick question in it. What survived Tuesday was not the view, it was the process. Max pain is a tendency, not a law. It tells you where the magnet is, not whether the magnet wins. 06Transcript ## The full episode, in text. Read the transcript Reading mode Copy link 1,230 words, about 6 min to read A very good morning, guys. The 100th episode exam had a trick question in it. We mapped a box, 24,500 to 24,600, and the market tore the floor off it in the first 30 minutes. The plan stopped out, and I will grade that straight. Because what survived Tuesday was not the view, it was the process. A defined risk structure that capped the damage at 34 points, a stop loss that fired exactly where it was supposed to, and one conditional, oil, that called the break before it happened. Also, quietly, the smartest desk on the street just completed a three day volatility masterclass. That is today's episode. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 101. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me set the scene, guys. Tuesday's expiry day, Nifty closed at 24,471, down 112 points, about half a percent. And here is the shape that matters. The open at 24,575 was the high of the day. It broke 24,500 inside the first half an hour, hit an air pocket, and fell to 24,429 by late morning, then ground sideways between 24,430 to 24,480 for the rest of the session. 24,600, Monday's magnet, was never tested. The Sensex lost 388 points and closed at 78,154. And the weekly expiry settled at 24,471, 128 points below the max pain of 24,600. Sit with that number for a second, because this is your first lesson today. Max pain said 24,600. The settlement printed 24,471. That is the second time in three expiries the pin theory has failed. Max pain is a tendency, not a fixed level where the expiry should happen compulsorily. It tells you where the magnet is, not whether the magnet wins. 5 lakh of them, became the fuel we warned about. The low, 24,429, landed exactly in that air to 24,400 zone episode 100 mapped. Now the grade, and I will not dress it up, we will look at it later. So now the part I find the most important, guys, the volatility cycle completed in three sessions. On Friday the front week traded under 10 percent volatility while the crowd sold puts, and the podcast said do not sell the volatility. 2, the curve inverted, and we said the smart money was long on both sides. 8, and the curve normalized. And look at what the proprietary desks did with it, from the official participant file. 72 lakh puts on Monday night. By Tuesday's close, 2,000 calls, minus 13,000 puts. They dumped the entire long vol book into the expiry, selling the exact spike they bought cheap three days earlier. Buy volatility when it is boring, sell it when it is terrifying. That is the whole trade, and they executed it across three sessions in plain sight of anyone reading the data. And who bought what they sold? The crowd. 2 lakh puts. Read that again. After a 112 point fall, the crowd is now positioned maximum bullish in both directions, long calls, short puts. 17 lakh stock futures, still roughly a four to one hedged long. Cash flows were a token, FIIs plus 259 crore, DIIs plus 255 crore. The armies have simply moved down one floor and reloaded. Which brings us to the new option book, and for the week we will discuss, the 18th August week. Max pain now sits at the 24,500 to 550 level. The old magnet at 24,600 is history, the new one is one floor down, and both sides piled onto it in a single day. 40 lakh fresh calls and 24 lakh fresh puts at 24,500, taking it to 51 lakh calls against 43 lakh puts. The deep put base sits at 24,000 with 58 lakh. Above the magnet of 24,500 sits the resistance at 24,600 and 24,700, 45 lakh and 48 lakh respectively. The weekly straddle currently costs around 281 rupees for 7 days at a 10 percent implied. That is back to cheap. Sounds familiar? It should. It is Friday's setup all over again, 100 points lower. And the sectors told you where the fear went. 6 percent. 2 percent, Metal was down 1 percent. That is defensive rotation, the third different leadership in three sessions. Nobody is committing. And a quick word on what is happening globally. 6 percent, S&P down a third. But Asia woke up strong. 5, the Nikkei green at fresh highs, only Hong Kong red, down over a percent. Gold has climbed back to 4,402 dollars an ounce. 38 as I record, 60 cents from that 90 dollar trigger mark we set on record two days back. 44, its weakest, that is the oil tax showing. And GIFT Nifty is at 24,556, about 85 points above our close, which means the market wants to open above 24,500. So the reclaim test I am about to describe, it is coming at the opening bell itself. And our own book. 08 percent. 01. Tape falling, alpha rising, that is the system doing its job. com. So here is the map for today, guys, and after a stop loss day the honest bias is patience. The whole day is one number, 24,500. We closed 28 points below the new max pain. Reclaim 24,500 on a closing basis and the pin engine restarts, 24,600 is the first fight, with 51 lakh fresh calls present over there. Failing at 24,500, and rallies are for selling. So buy on dips and sell on rises, that is what we are playing, for a mean reversion towards that 24,500 to 550 zone. 2 lakh short puts start burning again, with air towards 24,200. So below 24,500 keep a watch on the downside, guys, the acceleration can be very fast, but yes, the turnaround should happen, and 24,500 is the base mark. If Brent takes out 90, the downside scenario gets the benefit of the doubt, do not fight the tape that day. Two, tomorrow is the Sensex weekly expiry, the third run of the new closing auction, so keep our auction rules loaded. And whatever you do this week, keep the risk defined, guys, do not play naked. Tuesday just showed you why. The traders who survived the trick were the ones who paid 34 rupees to cap it. And one more thing, guys. Today is the no trading day we are planning to have. So if you can control yourself, a request to everyone, do not trade today, and keep one day of a no trading ban active. This is in contention against all the regulatory charges that have been applied, the STT increase, as well as the closing auction session that has been brought in, which has created more manipulation than anything else. So if you want to support the cause, keep a no trading day today, guys, and follow the rule. Have a great Wednesday, by the way. One broken box, one completed volatility cycle, one crowd leaning bullish at the lows, one new magnet at 24,500. Watch 24,500 on a closing basis, watch oil at 90. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give it a rating, guys, and a review if you want something to add to this podcast. See you all tomorrow morning on episode 102. Questions ## EP101, in plain words. What does EP101 of The Tanmay Edge cover?EP101, Wednesday 12 Aug 2026, 10:45, in 7 chapters: Cold open: the exam had a trick question; The tape: the floor broke, the magnet lost; The masterclass: three sessions, one complete cycle; Positioning: the crowd bought what the pros sold; The new board: 24,500 is the battleground; The world: oil 60 cents from the trigger; The plan: patience, one number, risk defined. How did the calls in EP101 score?Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 13 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. Is The Tanmay Edge investment advice?No. It is market commentary for education only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any security. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser, and strategy figures on RupeeCase are model, back tested. 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