---
title: "Max Pain Slides Three Days To 24,400, The | The Tanmay Edge"
description: "At noon on Wednesday the Nifty sat at 24,266, down two hundred points, deep in the exact air pocket episode 101 mapped."
source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-13
episode: 102
season: 2
date: 2026-08-13
duration_seconds: 687
audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/3064559/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_08_13_02_41_06_990b24f3-34d3-4ca3-b4d3-bc3b8de59323.mp3
grade: 4.5/5
generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML)
---

# Max pain slides three days to 24,400, the crowd hits a record naked put short, and the auction premium is finally priced

The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP102, Thursday 13 Aug 2026, 11:27. DII bought 5,842 crore the biggest single day of the month into the falling knife

## Scorecard

Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded against the 14 Aug 2026 session; on the public trail from 18 Aug 2026.

The call: Sensex Weekly Expiry Auction Round 3 DII Wrote A 5,842 Cr Cheque Into The Falling Knife V Shape 170 Pts Off 24,266 FII Sold 1,002 Cr Fut Shorts 1.65 L Max Pain Slid 3 Days To 24,400 Call Writers Chasing 42 L At 24,400 Pros Re-bought Vol At 9.44 One Day After Selling At 12 Crowd Record 5,74,000 Naked Puts Sensex 78,000 Battleground 16.4 L Calls Max Pain There Straddle 425 1 Day IV 13.5 vs Nifty 10 The Auction Premium Finally Paid Rules Indicative Is Not The Close No MOC

Graded Fri 14 Aug against the Sensex settlement 78,080. The call was hold 78,000 and the pin is on, straddle sellers eat inside 77,500 to 78,500, and 77,500 must hold if 77,900 goes. The pin came, the sellers ate as the straddle melted 425 to 80, and 77,500 held with 166 points to spare. The auction rules kept you out of the last minute whipsaw when the uncross swung 284 points after 3:26. On the Nifty the 24,400 to 24,500 box was dipped through to 24,311 but it closed on the magnet. Four and a half out of five.

## Chapters

### 1. Cold open: somebody wrote a 5,800 crore cheque (about 0:00, estimated)

Yesterday around noon the Nifty was at 24,266, down 200 points, exactly at the air pocket we mapped. And then somebody wrote a 5,800 crore cheque at the bottom. Not a cheque, buying, and that buying made a V-shaped recovery, 170 points off that low.

And the buyer was not the FIIs. The buyer was local, the domestic buy of the month. On the day, foreigners sold 1,000 crore. That war is half of today's episode. The other half is the Sensex weekly expiry and round three of the new closing auction, and for the first time the market walks in with the auction premium already paid.

### 2. The tape: a close that tells you nothing (about 1:34, estimated)

The Nifty closed 24,435, down 36 points, which tells you nothing, the market did absolutely nothing close to close. But the open at 24,472 was the high of the day, the third session running where the best print came in the first few minutes. It sold straight down to 24,266, then spent the whole afternoon climbing back to close above 24,400.

The Sensex fell 188 points to 77,966, but the bank index was green, up 0.6 percent. The VIX slipped to 11.67 and breadth was 17 up against 33 down.

### 3. The war: two armies, opposite directions, both in size (about 2:54, estimated)

On Wednesday the FIIs sold 1,002 crore of cash and added to their index futures shorts, now almost 1.65 lakh short contracts. The domestic funds bought 5,842 crore, their biggest single day of the month, straight into the falling knife, and that is what built the V-shape.

Step back and look at the week. The locals absorbed 7,000 crore plus, handed the book to the foreigners for two days, and took it back the moment price broke. Two armies, opposite directions, both in size. That resolves with a trend eventually, and until it does, every level is a battle between the FIIs and the DIIs.

### 4. The board: three things, each one a lesson (about 4:30, estimated)

One, max pain has slid three days in a row, 24,600 Monday, 24,500 Tuesday, 24,400 today. In one night it rode down another 100 points. The magnet does not pull price, it chases it too.

Two, the call writers are chasing, 42 lakh fresh calls sold at the money at 24,400 and 38 lakh more at 24,500, taking that level to 89 lakh contracts, while the 24,500 put writers ran, covering 12 lakh. The box stays 24,400 to 24,500.

And three, my favourite. The pros who dumped their entire long volatility book into Tuesday's expiry at 12 percent IV bought it back on Wednesday at 9.44. One day later. Buy it cheap, sell it terrifying, repeat. That loop is now the single best tell on the board, and we have watched them run it twice in seven sessions. Meanwhile the crowd sold another 51,000 naked puts into the V-shape, a new record 5,74,000, plus 1.48 lakh long calls. Maximum bullish, both directions, one day after a 200 point flush.

### 5. Round three: the market finally paid for the last 15 minutes (about 7:00, estimated)

102 episodes means we have the receipts. Round one, the settlement misfired and printed phantoms. Round two, the settlement held clean but the indicative price went wild inside the window and the volatility paid there. Both times the market walked in pricing a normal day and got surprised.

Not this time. Today the Sensex one day implied volatility is 13.5 percent, up 19 percent yesterday, while the Nifty front week sits near 10. That gap of nearly 4 vol points is the auction premium. The market has finally learned to pay for the last 15 minutes. So round three asks the opposite question. When everybody has already paid for the fireworks, do the fireworks come?

### 6. The Sensex board and the plan (about 8:48, estimated)

78,000 is the battleground, 16.4 lakh calls against 11.1 lakh puts on that one strike, and max pain sits exactly there. Spot closed 77,966, just 34 points below the pin, futures at a 57 point premium leaning it back up. The put floor is 77,500 to 77,700 where writers added 12.6 lakh fresh contracts, and call resistance is 78,300 to 78,500. The straddle costs about 425, roughly half a percent.

Inside 77,500 to 78,500 the straddle seller eats the premium and the 78,000 pin is the most crowded outcome. Buying window 77,700 to 77,500, selling window 78,300 to 78,500. The rules do not change, the indicative print is not the close, no market on close orders into the auction, and theta collects all day before the window pays. On the Nifty, boxed between the 24,400 magnet and 24,500 resistance with 89 lakh calls, above 24,500 on a close 24,600 to 700 opens, below 24,300 the crowd's record naked puts are fuel toward 24,100. The edge is not prediction, it is position sizing.

## Key takeaways

- DII bought 5,842 crore the biggest single day of the month into the falling knife
- FII sold 1,002 crore cash and pushed index futures shorts to almost 1.65 lakh
- Nifty V-shape low 24,266 recovered 170 points to close 24,435 down just 36
- The 24,472 open was the high the third session running the best print came first
- Sensex fell 188 to 77,966 but the bank index closed green up 0.6 percent
- VIX slipped to 11.67 breadth 17 up 33 down
- Max pain slid three days 24,600 to 24,500 to 24,400 the magnet chases price
- 42 lakh fresh calls at 24,400 and 38 lakh at 24,500 taking it to 89 lakh
- Pros re-bought the long vol book at 9.44 IV one day after selling at 12
- Crowd sold 51,000 more naked puts to a record 5,74,000 plus 1.48 lakh calls
- FII put book to 5 lakh contracts also a fresh high same war one floor lower
- Sensex 1 day IV 13.5 percent vs Nifty front week 10 the auction premium priced
- Sensex 78,000 battleground 16.4 lakh calls vs 11.1 lakh puts max pain exactly there
- Spot 77,966 just 34 points below the pin futures at a 57 point premium
- Put floor 77,500 to 77,700 with 12.6 lakh fresh contracts added
- Sensex straddle about 425 roughly half a percent for the day
- KOSPI up 4.2 percent at a record over 11 percent in three days Nikkei fresh record
- Brent backed off 1.3 percent to 87.80 the 90 trigger walked back from the button
- GIFT 24,437 dead flat a quiet open right inside the box
- All Cap green on a red day alpha almost a percent since rebalance

## Quotes

> Somebody wrote a 5,800 crore cheque at the bottom.
>
> The cold open, on the domestic bid that built the V-shaped recovery.

> Two armies, opposite directions, both in size.
>
> On FII selling against the DII's biggest single day buy of the month.

> The magnet does not pull price, it chases it too.
>
> On max pain sliding three days running, 24,600 to 24,500 to 24,400.

> Buy it cheap, sell it terrifying, repeat.
>
> On the pros re-buying vol at 9.44 one day after dumping it at 12.

> The market has finally learned to pay for the last 15 minutes.
>
> On Sensex one day IV at 13.5 against the Nifty's 10, the auction premium.

> When everybody has already paid for the fireworks, do the fireworks come?
>
> The question round three of the closing auction asks.

> The edge is not prediction, it is position sizing.
>
> The close, after a week of whipsaws.

## Transcript

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday at noon, almost, the Nifty was at 24,266, down 200 points, exactly at that air pocket we thought the Nifty would come in to. And then somebody wrote a 5,800 crore cheque at the bottom. No, it was not a cheque, it was buying, and the buying made the market a V-shaped recovery, 170 points off that low. And the buyer was not the FIIs. The buyer was local, the domestic buy of the month. On the day, foreigners sold 1,000 crore.

That war is half of today's episode. The other half is the Sensex weekly expiry, and round three of the new closing auction session that we are going to see. And for the first time, the market has walked in with the auction premium already paid. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 102. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, let's look at yesterday, what happened. The Nifty closed at 24,435, down 36 points, which tells you nothing, the market did absolutely nothing close to close.

The open at 24,472 was the high of the day, again the third session running where the best print came in the first few minutes of the opening. It sold straight down to 24,266, the low came in, and then it spent the whole afternoon climbing back, closing above 24,400. 6 percent. 67, and the breadth across the board was 17 up to 33 down. So yesterday's call, guys, quickly. Episode 101 said 24,500 is the day, and if it fails, rallies are for selling, 24,400 first, air below that.

The gap up GIFT Nifty promised evaporated overnight. What I did not map was the size of the local bid that caught it. com. Now the war, guys, because this is where the heart of the tape is for today. 65 lakh short contracts on the index. The domestic funds bought 5,842 crore, their biggest single day of the month, straight into the falling knife, and that is what built the V-shape. Step back and look at the week. The locals absorbed 7,000 crore plus, handed the book to the foreigners for two days, and took it back the moment price broke.

Two armies, opposite directions, both in size. That resolves with a trend eventually, and until it does, every level is a battle between the FIIs and the DIIs. Under the hood, the options board did three things, and each one is a lesson. One, max pain has now slid three days in a row. 24,600 was the pin on Monday, 24,500 on Tuesday, and today it is standing at 24,400. In one night it rode down another 100 points. The magnet does not pull price, it chases it too.

Two, the call writers are chasing. 42 lakh fresh calls sold at the money at 24,400, 38 lakh more calls at 24,500, taking that level to 89 lakh contracts, while the 24,500 put writers ran, covering 12 lakh. Overall the box remains between 24,400 to 24,500. 44. One day later. Buy it cheap, sell it terrifying, repeat, that is what they are doing. Once the IV crashes they are buying into it, and once it rises higher they are getting it off. That loop is now the single best tell on the board, and we have watched them run it twice in the last 7 sessions.

48 lakh long calls on top of that. So maximum bullish, both directions, one day after a 200 point flush. The FIIs meanwhile took their put book to 5 lakh contracts, also a fresh high. Same war, third week running, one floor lower. Which brings us to today's main event, the Sensex weekly expiry, and round three of the closing auction session. Quick history, guys, because 102 episodes means we have the receipts. Round one, the settlement misfired and printed phantoms. Round two, the settlement held clean, but the indicative price went wild inside that window, and the volatility paid there.

Both times the market walked in pricing a normal day and got surprised. Not this time. 5 percent, up 19 percent yesterday, while the Nifty front week sits at almost 10 percent. That gap of nearly 4 vol points is the auction premium for the expiry we are going to see today. The market has finally learned to pay for the last 15 minutes. So round three asks the opposite question. When everybody has already paid for the fireworks, do the fireworks come? Now the Sensex board itself, and read it closely.

1 lakh puts on that one strike, and max pain sits exactly there. The spot closed at 77,966, just 34 points below the pin, with the futures at a 57 point premium leaning it back up. 6 lakh fresh contracts yesterday. And the call resistance above is 78,300 to 78,500. The straddle costs about 425 rupees, guys, so roughly half a percent for the day. So the expiry math is simple. Inside 77,500 to 78,500 the straddle seller eats the premium, and the pin at 78,000 is the single most crowded outcome.

The rules do not change. The indicative print is not the close. No market on close orders into the auction. And if you own expiry premium, remember Tuesday's lesson, theta collects all day before the window pays. So keep a watch on that. Your buying window is 77,700 to 77,500, and the selling window is 78,300 to 78,500, while the centre still stands at 78,000. Sectors, quickly, because the rotation flipped for the fourth day. 7 percent alone, Monday's IT bid fully unwound. Banks leading a V-day, a V-shaped recovery day, is the most constructive card the bulls have shown all week.

A quick world on the global markets as well. 2 percent at a record, that is over 11 percent in three days. 6 percent at a fresh record. 4. The US closed firm, the Nasdaq up half a percent. And here is the overnight gift for the bulls. 80, so the 90 dollar trigger from episode 100 has walked back from the button. Gold sits at 4,411, living at its record, the high overnight was 4,449. 33. And GIFT Nifty is trading at 24,437, dead flat on our close, so a quiet open right inside the box.

After Tuesday, I will say it again, GIFT is a rumour, not a promise, but today the rumour says nothing at all. And our own book. 15 on the index. 38, an alpha of almost a percent, and the next rebalance is on Monday. Four days, four leaderships, and the system just keeps clipping alpha out of the churn. That is the job it does. So here is the map for today, guys. The Nifty is boxed between the 24,400 magnet below and the 24,500 resistance above, 89 lakh calls heavy over there.

Above 24,500 on a close, the fight resumes and 24,600 to 700 opens up again. Below 24,300, remember who is short. 74 lakh naked puts are short over there, and those are the fuel for the market to go down to 24,100. Between them, expect the magnet to do its work while the Sensex expiry takes the spotlight. On the Sensex, 78,000 is the pin, 77,500 to 700 is your support, and the last 15 minutes belong to the auction. Watch it, learn from it, do not trade the indicative price.

After a week like this, one thing, the edge is not prediction, it is position sizing. Keep it defined, keep it small, and let the two armies exhaust each other. So this was The Tanmay Edge, guys. If you found value in this, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams first. And give it a rating, guys, if you want to add something to the podcast. Have a great expiry, and see you all once again tomorrow morning.

## More

- Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/
- August 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-08/
- Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/
- Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record
- Previous: EP101, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-12
- Next: EP103, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-14

Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.