--- title: "The Fireworks Came One Minute Too Late, A | The Tanmay Edge" description: "The Tanmay Edge EP103 follows a closing auction that stood still until 3:26 then moved in the uncross, and what that says about where the auction move lives." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-14 episode: 103 season: 2 date: 2026-08-14 duration_seconds: 548 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/3066868/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_08_14_03_25_50_0deb5e1a-a581-4e5d-9cbe-aefd62ab183a.mp3 grade: 4/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # The fireworks came one minute too late The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP103, Friday 14 Aug 2026, 9:08. Sensex frozen 3:15 to 3:26 then the uncross swung 284 points in four minutes ## Scorecard Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded against the 17 Aug 2026 session; on the public trail from 18 Aug 2026. The call: Round 3 Fireworks Came One Minute Too Late Frozen 3:15 To 3:26 Then A 284 Pt Uncross Indicative 77,859 To 78,143 Settled 78,080 Straddle Melted 425 To 80 Sellers Still Won NEW RULE The Auction Move Lives AFTER 3:26 Both Magnets Pinned Sensex 80 Over 78,000 Nifty 24,396 vs 24,400 Edu Sliding Magnet Chases Stable Magnet Holds Pros SOLD 63k Puts At IV 8.53 Cycle Floor Crowd Covered 89k To 4.86 L FII Short 2.89 L Calls 1.69 L Fut Cycle Highs 13,538 Cr Idx Options DII +4,353 Cr Board Ladder Max Pain 24,400 Straddle 205 Cheap Again Graded Mon 17 Aug against the Fri close 24,366. The call was a drift day with squaring around a stable 24,400 magnet, support 24,300 first and resistance 24,500. It landed, the day ranged 24,326 to 24,431, exactly between the magnet and the support, and closed 0.12 percent lower right in the box with the late cash hop as flagged. Four on five. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: the fireworks came one minute too late (about 0:00, estimated) Yesterday, between 3:15 and 3:26, the Sensex did absolutely nothing. The equilibrium price sat frozen near 77,890, and the expiry straddle, which cost 425 rupees at the open, melted to about 80. Every clock said quiet close, straddle sellers win again. And then, in the final four minutes, the auction moved almost three hundred points. The indicative went from 77,859 to 78,143, and the settlement printed at 78,080, right on the 78,000 battleground. The fireworks came. One minute too late for anyone still holding premium. That is round three of the closing auction. ### 2. The day: support never even touched (about 1:04, estimated) The Sensex opened 78,112, basically the high, sold off to 77,666 by mid morning, and here is the first thing to note. 77,500, the support this podcast marked, was never even touched, the low stopped 166 points above it. The index climbed back through noon, chopped between 77,800 and 78,000 all afternoon, and walked into the closing auction near 77,890. Then the sequence, frozen till 3:26, then the uncross swung roughly 284 points in four minutes, settling 78,080, up 113 on the day. ### 3. Grading round three: the sellers still won (about 1:59, estimated) Episode 102 asked one precise question. When everybody has already paid for the fireworks, do they come? The answer, yes, and the sellers still won. The straddle seller collected all day, 425 down to 80. The buyer of that 4 vol point auction premium watched it die by 3:26. And the 78,000 straddle at 80 rupees in the window settled worth about 80. Breakeven, even on a 284 point swing. Write down the new rule, it completes the auction playbook. The closing auction move now lives AFTER 3:26, inside the uncross itself. A frozen equilibrium and a melting straddle are not safety, and you cannot buy the auction move with listed premium, because the move happens in the final match, where nobody trades. The two old rules stand taller than ever, never trade the indicative, and be flat into the window. ### 4. Both magnets worked: a stable magnet holds (about 3:30, estimated) For the first time in two weeks, both magnets worked. The Sensex settled 80 points over its 78,000 max pain. The Nifty closed 24,396, four points from its 24,400 max pain, after dipping to 24,311 intraday and getting pulled back to the pin by its own closing session. Two indices, two pins, same day. And the lesson to file, max pain works when it stops moving. The Nifty's magnet slid 24,600, 24,500, 24,400 through the week and price fell with it, the follower, not support. The moment it stabilised at 24,400 for a second day, it pinned. A sliding magnet chases, a stable magnet holds. ### 5. Positioning: the pros sold the floor insurance (about 4:37, estimated) The pros sold 63 thousand puts yesterday, flipping their put book short. Understand what that means. Front week implied volatility has crushed to 8.5 percent, the cheapest reading of the entire two week arc, ten, twelve point two, nine nine five, nine four four, eight five three, and this time the smartest desk is selling the floor insurance at the pin, not buying vol. The crowd finally blinked too, covering 89 thousand of the record naked put book, down from 5.74 lakh to 4.86 lakh, and buying 47 thousand calls instead. Pain teaches. And the foreigners quietly got their heaviest of the cycle, short 2.89 lakh calls, the biggest call short so far, short 1.69 lakh index futures, also a cycle high, long 4.74 lakh puts, with 13,538 crore pushed through index options in a day. In cash they sold 511 crore while the locals bought 4,353 crore. ### 6. The new board: range first, vol at the floor (about 6:12, estimated) Max pain 24,400, second day, stable, and it just pinned. Resistance is a ladder now, 24,500 with 105 lakh calls, then 24,600, 24,700, and a monster 108 lakh at 24,800 after the day's biggest single add of 52 lakh, with 131 lakh capping at 25,000. Support laddered below, 24,300 with 78 lakh puts after a 22 lakh add, then 24,200, 24,100, and the 96 lakh base at 24,000. The weekly straddle into Tuesday costs about 205. Cheap again. Sound familiar? It is the same trap door the market has walked over twice. And sectors rotated for the fifth day in five, defensives leading, banks red a day after leading. Five days, five different leaders, a market with no conviction and a lot of positioning. ### 7. The plan: drift into the long weekend (about 7:31, estimated) The map for today, the last session before the long weekend. Expect a drift day with squaring. Support 24,300 first, then the 24,000 base. Resistance 24,500, then 24,600. The magnet at 24,400 is stable and it just proved it works, so the base case is a pin drift around it into the weekend. Two things change the picture, banks picking a side, and oil. The world is a tailwind this morning, the US closed strong with the Nasdaq up 0.8 and the 10 year at 4.64, the KOSPI up another 1 percent on its fifth straight melt up, the Nikkei at another record. Brent near 88 after an intraday look at 85.9, the 90 trigger keeps backing away. The rupee is the sore spot at 95.44, its weakest close. Housekeeping, Monday the All Cap rebalances and round four of the Sensex auction comes Thursday the 20th. Keep risk small into the weekend, holiday tapes are thin tapes. ## Key takeaways - Sensex frozen 3:15 to 3:26 then the uncross swung 284 points in four minutes - Indicative ran 77,859 to 78,143 settlement printed 78,080 on the 78,000 battleground - Expiry straddle melted 425 at the open to about 80 by the window - The 78,000 straddle at 80 settled worth about 80 breakeven on a 284 point swing - New rule the auction move lives AFTER 3:26 inside the uncross where nobody trades - 77,500 support never touched the low stopped 166 points above it - Both magnets worked Sensex settled 80 over 78,000 max pain - Nifty closed 24,396 four points from its 24,400 max pain after dipping to 24,311 - Edu a sliding magnet chases a stable magnet holds - Pros SOLD 63 thousand puts flipping the put book short at the pin - Front week IV crushed to 8.5 percent the cheapest of the whole two week arc - Crowd covered 89 thousand naked puts 5.74 lakh down to 4.86 lakh and bought 47 thousand calls - FII short 2.89 lakh calls the biggest call short of the cycle - FII short 1.69 lakh index futures a cycle high long 4.74 lakh puts - FII pushed 13,538 crore through index options in one day - FII sold 511 crore cash while DII bought 4,353 crore the second big absorb in three days - Max pain 24,400 second day stable resistance ladder 24,500 with 105 lakh calls - Monster 108 lakh calls at 24,800 after the biggest single add of 52 lakh - Support 24,300 with 78 lakh puts base 24,000 with 96 lakh straddle about 205 cheap again - Fifth different sector leadership in five days no conviction a lot of positioning - All Cap alpha widened five days running 0.59 0.85 1.01 0.99 1.26 percent ## Quotes > The fireworks came. One minute too late for anyone still holding premium. > > The cold open, on the 284 point uncross after a frozen equilibrium. > The closing auction move now lives AFTER 3:26, inside the uncross itself. > > The new rule completing the auction playbook. > A frozen equilibrium and a melting straddle are NOT safety. > > On the 425 to 80 melt that preceded the whipsaw. > You cannot buy the auction move with listed premium, because the move happens in the final match, where nobody trades. > > Why the 4 vol point auction premium died by 3:26. > A sliding magnet chases, a stable magnet holds. > > On max pain pinning both indices once it stabilised at 24,400. > Holiday tapes are thin tapes. > > Keeping risk small into the long weekend. ## Transcript A very good morning, guys. Yesterday between 3:15 and 3:26, the Sensex did something absolutely unexpected. The equilibrium price sat frozen at 77,890, and the expiry straddle, which cost 425 rupees at the open, melted to about 80 rupees. Every clock in the market said quiet close, straddle sellers win again. And then, in the final four minutes, the auction moved almost 300 points. The indicative went from 77,859 to 78,143, and the settlement printed 78,080, right on the 78,000 battleground. The fireworks came, one minute too late for anyone still holding premium. That is round three of the closing auction session, and that is today's story. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 103. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So let me give you the full day first, because the shape matters, guys. The Sensex opened at 78,112, which was basically the high, sold off to 77,666 by mid morning. And here is the first thing to note. 77,500, the support this podcast marked, was never touched. The low stopped 166 points above it. The index then climbed back through noon, chopped between 77,800 and 78,000 all afternoon, and walked into the closing auction near 77,890. Then the sequence I just described, frozen till 3:26, then the uncross swung roughly 284 points in four minutes, indicative 77,859 to 78,143, settled at 78,080, up 113 points for the day. Now the part that nobody noticed yesterday. For the first time in two weeks, both magnets worked. The Sensex settled 80 points over its 78,000 max pain. The Nifty closed at 24,396, four points from the 24,400 max pain, after dipping to 24,311 intraday and getting pulled back to the pin by its own closing session. Two indices, two pins, same day. And here is the lesson to file. Max pain works when it stops moving. The Nifty's magnet slid 24,600, 24,500 and then 24,400 through the week, and the price fell with it. The follower, not support. The moment it stabilised at 24,400 for the second day, it pinned. A sliding magnet chases, a stable magnet holds. Under the hood, if you look at the positioning, it turned properly heavy handed. And I read it the usual way, pros first, then foreigners, then the crowd. The pros sold 63,000 puts yesterday, flipping their put book short. Understand what that means. 53 percent, the cheapest reading of the entire two weeks, and this time the smartest desk is selling the floor, the insurance at the pin, not buying volatility. That means they are willing to sell it at 9 percent as well. The crowd finally blinked. 86 lakh, and bought 47,000 calls instead. Pain teaches. And the foreigners quietly got their heaviest of the cycle. 89 lakh calls, the biggest short so far. 69 lakh index futures short, also a cycle high. 74 lakh puts. And 13,538 crore pushed through index options yesterday alone. In cash they sold 511 crore while the locals bought 4,353 crore, the second big absorption in the last three days. Read it together. The crowd is lightening up, the pros are selling insurance and selling non directional spreads, and the foreigners are quietly building the biggest hedge book of the month while the locals keep writing the cheque. The new week. The Nifty max pain stacks at 24,400, second day, stable, and it has just pinned. 31 crore capping at 25,000. Support laddered below, 24,300 with 78 lakh puts and 22 lakh added yesterday itself, then 24,200 and then 24,100. So the weekly straddle into Tuesday costs about 205. Cheap again. Sounds familiar? It is the same trapdoor the market has walked over twice. So sectors have rotated for the fifth day. Yesterday it was the defensives. 8 percent, IT green, while banks went red a day after leading, metals and cement sold. 9 percent, NTPC, BEL, L and T, Hindustan Unilever all up, ICICI and Titan down. Five days, five different leaders. This is a market with no conviction and a lot of positioning. So a quick word on the global markets as well, and the tailwind this morning. 65 percent. 64 percent, and that is risk on fuel. Korea, unbelievable. The KOSPI is up another 1 percent this morning, its fifth straight melt up, and a rally that is going on roughly 13 percent for the week. 7 percent, and only Hong Kong is red. Oil deflated, Brent is near 88 after an intraday look at 85 yesterday, the 90 trigger keeps backing away. Gold cooled to 4,369 off its record. 44, its weakest close. And GIFT Nifty is at 24,426 as I record, 30 points over our close, a quiet start for the day. Our own book deserves a number. 26 yesterday. 53 percent since the rebalance. And Monday is the rebalance day, the system rotates the book on the 17th. Five leaderships in five days is exactly the churn this machine eats. com. A quick word on yesterday's call as well. I will take a four out of five on yesterday. com, you can go and check it out. So the map for today, the last session before the long weekend. Expect a drift day with squaring. Support 24,300 first, then the 24,000 base. Resistance 24,500, then 24,600. The magnet is at 24,400, stable, and it has just proved it works. So the base case is a pin drift around it into the weekend. Two things change the picture, banks picking a side, and oil. And one housekeeping note, guys. Monday the All Cap rebalances, and the next Sensex auction, round four, comes next Thursday on the 20th. Keep the risk small into the weekend, holiday tapes are thin tapes. Have a great Friday, guys. One frozen equilibrium to watch for. This was The Tanmay Edge. If you found value in this, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. And leave it a rating, guys, if you want to add something to the podcast. Have a happy weekend, see you all once again on Monday. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - August 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-08/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP102, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-13 - Next: EP104, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-17 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.