--- title: "The Oil Trigger Fired At 91, A Third | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Eight episodes ago this podcast put one sentence on record: if oil crosses 90 dollars, the support under this market starts breaking." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-18 episode: 105 season: 2 date: 2026-08-18 duration_seconds: 683 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/3076184/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_08_18_02_48_50_c557e417-5abb-4efa-9d5b-636117147ca9.mp3 grade: 2.5/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # The oil trigger fired at 91 The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP105, Tuesday 18 Aug 2026, 11:23. Brent crossed 90 overnight with a high of 91.35 the trigger called 8 episodes ago fired ## Scorecard Grade 2.5/5 (50 percent): 1 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 3 miss. Graded the next trading day, 19 Aug 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Expiry Day The Oil Trigger Fired Brent Crossed 90 High 91.35 Called 8 Episodes Ago Crowd Third Consecutive Record 6.61 L Naked Puts IV +25 Percent Fifth Straight Lower Close 24,287 Staircase 45 To 50 Pts A Day FII Sold 2,535 Cr Cash DII Bought 5,101 Cr Second 5,000 Cr Cheque In 3 Sessions FII +8,423 Cr Idx Options Fut Shorts 1.82 L Cycle High Pros Long 1.26 L Calls 1.12 L Puts Long Vol Both Legs FII 5.02 L Puts Max Pain 24,350 Above Spot Support 24,300 1.35 Cr Puts 24,250 83 L PCR 0.92 Straddle 125 Box 24,150 To 24,400 Neg Gamma Below 24,350 Trade Long Put Spread 24,300/24,500 Credit 127 Stop 160 Graded Wed 19 Aug against the Tue expiry settlement 24,155. The expiry day plan was wrong, a second straight stop day. The long put spread entered at 140 to 145 and the 160 stop hit immediately, the loss capped as designed but the market kept drifting to the 24,150 mark and settled 195 points below the 24,350 max pain, so the magnet argument failed. What paid was the defined risk structure and the oil conditional, Brent held above 91. Two and a half out of five. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: the oil trigger fired on expiry day (about 0:00, estimated) Today is the expiry day, and Brent has crossed 90 dollars overnight, making a high of 91.35. The trigger we called 8 episodes ago fired this morning, and today is the expiry. 6,61,000 puts have been sold by the clients, a third consecutive record naked put book. IV jumped almost 25 percent yesterday, and the expiry IV woke up today at the support. So today is the expiry day, somebody wins at 3:30. ### 2. The staircase: fifth straight lower close (about 1:04, estimated) The Nifty closed 78 points lower, 0.32 percent, at 24,287, with a high of 24,360 and a low of 24,226. A fifth straight lower close. And look at the flow, 24,472 five days ago, then 24,436, then 24,396, then 24,366, then 24,288 yesterday. A staircase down, almost 45 to 50 points every day. The Sensex closed 281 points lower at 77,728 with a low of 77,454. VIX was up almost a percent to 11.4. Breadth was 18 up and 31 down, almost 2 to 3. IT was down 1.75 percent with Infosys down 2.66 and HCL down 2.53, FMCG down 1 percent, while Realty was up 1.46 and Metal up 1.26. Small caps were green, so the broader market is still showing strength. ### 3. Yesterday's grade: direction wrong, vol right (about 2:48, estimated) Buy on dips went wrong. The dip sliced towards 24,227, so the 24,300 stop worked and the exit rule worked. And one thing that worked was IV, which got a jump of almost 25 percent. So direction was wrong, vol was right. I will take a 2 on 5 on that. ### 4. The flows: the second 5,000 crore cheque in three sessions (about 3:28, estimated) FII cash saw 2,535 crore of selling yesterday, whereas the DIIs bought 5,101 crore, the second 5,000 crore cheque in three sessions. That is a big one. FII index options bought 8,423 crore in one day, so they are buying the protection at full throttle. And FII index futures shorts grew to 1.82 lakh, a new cycle high for August. And the crowd, you can see the numbers yourself. 5.74 lakh puts short, then 6.08 lakh, and yesterday 6.61 lakh. Three consecutive records in the naked short put book. 53,000 puts added on Monday into a falling knife, one night before oil crossed 90. The first record burned at 24,266 on the 12th, and they have built it twice since, bigger each time. Let's see whether the clients can hold those naked puts. ### 5. Positioning: long vol both legs into the expiry (about 5:27, estimated) The pros are long 1.26 lakh calls and long 1.12 lakh puts, which means they are long vol on both legs into the expiry. The IV spike overnight has already paid that book, but the loop keeps working and they are carrying it. The FIIs are long 5.02 lakh puts, crossing 5 lakh for the first time this month, and they covered around 50,000 call shorts, so even the hedges respect the upside tail. ### 6. The board: max pain above spot for once (about 6:30, estimated) Max pain sits around 24,350, so 24,350 to 400 is the zone, and the market is 62 points below the magnet. Support is 24,300 with 1.35 crore puts, 33 lakh added yesterday, the single biggest strike of the defensive bulls. Support two is 24,250 with 83 lakh puts, and almost half of that, 43.5 lakh, was added yesterday, the biggest add we saw. Then 24,200 at 1.04 crore, and the base at 24,000 with 1.14 crore. Resistance starts at 24,350 with 71 lakh calls after a 31 lakh add, then 24,400 with 1.05 crore, and 24,500 is the biggest at 1.25 crore calls written. Put writers added one crore contracts between 24,200 and 24,300 in a single day, a great support created. PCR is almost flat at 0.92. The straddle is roughly 125, the 24,300 strike trading 131, giving a range of about 160 points either side, a box of roughly 24,150 to 24,400. Below 24,350 is negative gamma territory where moves amplify. ### 7. The plan: the long put spread (about 8:54, estimated) The battlefield is roughly 24,200 to 400, so we have 200 points to play for. Max pain above spot for once. Reclaim 24,350 and the pin can settle, below 24,350 we see a trending move, and lose 24,250 and the crowd's 6.6 lakh naked puts are the fuel, with 24,000 possible. Do not rule out a trending move today. Oil above 91 gives the downside the benefit of the doubt, the standing rule. The vol model says buy the IV, do not sell it, own it in small risk. So we play the same direction, buy on dips remains, through a long spread. Buy the 24,300 put and sell the 24,500 in the money put. The spread trades at a credit of 127, expected to sell around 135 to 140, stop loss 160. A 20 point stop for a 60 point target, a one is to three trade, expecting a bounce to 24,400. If it goes below 160 do not carry it, exit and stay on the sidelines. 24,100 is the first buy zone and 24,000 the final one. Keep position sizing right. ## Key takeaways - Brent crossed 90 overnight with a high of 91.35 the trigger called 8 episodes ago fired - Clients short 6.61 lakh naked puts a third consecutive record - IV jumped almost 25 percent yesterday and woke up at the support - Nifty closed 24,287 down 78 points the fifth straight lower close - Staircase 24,472 to 24,436 to 24,396 to 24,366 to 24,288 about 45 to 50 points a day - Sensex closed 77,728 down 281 with a low of 77,454 VIX 11.4 - Breadth 18 up 31 down IT down 1.75 Infosys 2.66 HCL 2.53 smallcaps green - Previous call graded 2 on 5 the dip sliced to 24,227 but the stop and vol call worked - FII sold 2,535 crore cash DII bought 5,101 crore the second 5,000 crore cheque in 3 sessions - FII bought 8,423 crore of index options in one day buying protection at full throttle - FII index futures shorts grew to 1.82 lakh a new cycle high for August - Crowd added 53,000 puts on Monday into a falling knife one night before oil crossed 90 - The first record burned at 24,266 on the 12th and was rebuilt twice bigger - Pros long 1.26 lakh calls and 1.12 lakh puts long vol both legs into expiry - FII long 5.02 lakh puts crossing 5 lakh for the first time this month - Max pain 24,350 with the market 62 points below the magnet - Support 24,300 holds 1.35 crore puts with 33 lakh added yesterday - Support 24,250 holds 83 lakh puts with 43.5 lakh added the biggest single add - Resistance 24,350 at 71 lakh calls 24,400 at 1.05 crore 24,500 biggest at 1.25 crore - Put writers added one crore contracts between 24,200 and 24,300 in a single day - PCR 0.92 straddle about 125 box roughly 24,150 to 24,400 negative gamma below 24,350 - Trade a long put spread buy 24,300 sell 24,500 credit 127 stop 160 target 60 points - Crude 91.16 rupee below 95.50 gold 4,400 US 10 year 4.73 Asia melting Nikkei down 1 percent ## Quotes > The trigger that we called 8 episodes ago fired this morning. > > The cold open, Brent crossing 90 with a 91.35 high on expiry day. > Today is the expiry day, somebody wins at 3:30. > > Setting up the third consecutive record naked put book into settlement. > A staircase down, almost 45 to 50 points every day. > > On the fifth straight lower close, 24,472 to 24,288. > Direction was wrong, vol was right. > > Grading the previous episode a 2 on 5, the stop and the IV call both worked. > They have built it twice since that point, and bigger each time. > > On the crowd rebuilding the naked put book to 6.61 lakh after the first record burned. > Max pain above spot for once. > > The board sitting 62 points above the market into expiry. > Buy the IV, do not sell it, own it in small risk. > > The vol model on expiry day with oil above 91. ## Transcript A very good morning, guys. Today is the expiry day, and Brent has crossed 90 dollars overnight. 35. The trigger that we called 8 episodes ago fired this morning, and today is the expiry. 6,61,000 puts have been sold by the clients, into a third consecutive record naked put book. IV has crossed, almost a 25 percent jump yesterday, and the expiry IV woke up today at the support. So today is the expiry day, somebody wins at 3:30. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 105. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So first, yesterday. 32 percent lower, at 24,287. The high was 24,360 and the low was 24,226. A fifth straight lower close we have seen. And the flow is, 24,472 five days ago, then 24,436, a lower one, then 24,396, another lower one, then 24,366, another lower one, and 24,288 yesterday. A staircase down, almost 45 to 50 points every day we are seeing. We will come back to it later. The Sensex closed 281 points lower at 77,728, and it made a low of 77,454. 4. The breadth for yesterday was 18 stocks up on the Nifty and 31 down, so almost a 2 is to 3 breadth that we saw. 53 percent. FMCG as a sector was down 1 percent. 26 percent. Small caps were green, so the broader market is still showing strength, and we will come back to it as well in this episode. So about yesterday, buy on dips went wrong. The dip sliced towards 24,227, so the 24,300 stop worked, the exit rule worked. And one thing that worked was, IV got a jump of almost 25 percent yesterday. So direction was wrong, vol was right. So I will take a 2 on 5 on that. com. Now the flows for yesterday. FII cash saw 2,535 crore of selling yesterday, whereas the DIIs bought 5,101 crore, the second 5,000 crore cheque in 3 sessions. That is a big one. FII index options, they bought 8,423 crore in one day, so they are buying the protection and they are buying it in full throttle. 82 lakh, a new cycle high that we are seeing in this August month. And the crowd, the clients, you can see the numbers yourself. 61 lakh. Three consecutive records in the naked short put book. 53,000 puts added on Monday, yesterday, into a falling knife, one night before oil crossed 90 dollars. The first record burned at 24,266 on the 12th. They have built it twice since that point, and bigger each time. So let's see whether the clients can hold those naked puts or not. 12 lakh puts. That means they are long vol on both legs into the expiry. So they are long calls as well as long puts. The IV spike overnight has already paid that book, but the loop keeps on working and they are carrying it. 02 lakh, crossed 5 lakh for the first time this month. The FIIs covered around 50,000 call shorts, so even the hedges respect the upside tail that we see. And for today's option chain, max pain sits around 24,350, that is where the expiry should happen. So 24,350 to 400 is that level where the max pain sits, and the market is 62 points below the magnet. 35 crore puts over there, 33 lakh just got added over there yesterday, so that is the single biggest strike of the defensive bulls. 5 lakh, was added yesterday itself, the biggest add that we saw. 14 crore. So below 24,250 we can still see that 24,200 level or 24,000 levels hitting in, so keep a watch on that. Resistance, the first resistance stands at 24,350 with 71 lakh calls, and 31 lakh got added yesterday. 05 crore, 24 lakh that got added over there. 25 crore calls have been written over there. So put writers added one crore contracts between 24,200 to 24,300 in one day. A great support that has been created. 92. So the expiry straddle is roughly around 125. The 24,300 reference strike is trading at 131, and that gives a range of almost 160 points on both ends. That gives us a box of roughly 24,150 on the lower end and around 24,400 on the higher end. If you look at the levels simply, 24,350 to 400 is your magnet zone, and below which it is negative gamma territory, which means the moves will amplify and we could see sharp trending moves. Above 24,350, the market should pin around 24,400. And the vol is over the board as well, where we saw it jump 25 percent yesterday, so it is still around that 10 level. So the vol has subsided and the cash effect has gone down. Still, 120 rupees straddle means we could see another 40 to 50 rupees of decay till 3:15, and we could see the market pricing in around a 70 rupee straddle by 3:15. So if you are going to sell, be cautious, it is not advisable, as buy IV or buy long volatility is going on. And the global headwind this morning. GIFT Nifty is flat, but Asia is melting. The Nikkei is down 1 percent, almost 700 points. 12 percent. 71 percent. 37 percent, that is the only positive. 32 percent. 61, the lowest that we have seen, and the oil tax compounding effect is able to be seen in the markets as well. 73, gold at 4,400, off the records. 50. So that is both bad news for the Indian markets, which may get surprised, and we will see it in the next part. And one thing before we go to the plan. 4 on day one. 11 percent in the new book. So the scorecard still remains a CAGR of almost 48 percent year on year. Now the plan, guys. The battlefield is roughly around 24,200 to 400 levels, so we have got those 200 points to play for. Max pain above spot for once, the pin needs to settle down. 6 lakh naked puts are the fuel, and that would cost, 24,000 might get hit as well. So do not rule out a trending move today. And oil above 91 gives the downside the benefit of the doubt, the standing rule. The vol model says buy the IV, do not sell it, own it in small risk. So what we are going to do, we are going to play the same direction, still buy on dips remains, and that is where the trade comes in. So we are doing a long spread, that means the 24,300 put we are buying and the 24,500 in the money put we are selling. The spread is trading at a credit of 127 rupees, expected to sell around 135 to 140, with a stop loss of 160. So it gives you a 20 point stop loss with a target of almost 60 points, that means a one is to three trade is available. 24,300 and 24,500, expecting the markets can bounce till 24,400 as well. If it goes below 160, then do not carry it, just exit it and stay on the sidelines. Still, 24,100 becomes the first buy zone and the final buy zone is 24,000. Keep a watch on it, keep position sizing right, guys, and have a happy trading. If this added value, please share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it is streaming first at 8:30 every morning. And give it a rating, guys, if you want to add something to the podcast. See you all once again tomorrow. Till then, have a happy expiry. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - August 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-08/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP104, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-17 - Next: EP106, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-08-19 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.