---
title: "I Got The Direction Wrong And The Fly Lost | The Tanmay Edge"
description: "I got yesterday's direction wrong. The iron fly lost 73.55 points, which is the exact number I published before I entered it."
source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-09
episode: 121
season: 2
date: 2026-09-09
duration_seconds: 622
audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/3135938/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_09_09_02_28_33_65f386cf-4b33-4055-89cb-5cc5c5aecf99.mp3
grade: 4/5
generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML)
---

# I got the direction wrong and the fly lost 73.55, which is the exact number I published before I entered it

The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP121, Wednesday 9 Sep 2026, 10:22. The iron fly lost its maximum, the exact figure published before entry

## Scorecard

Grade 4/5 (80 percent): 4 hit, 0 partial, 0 mechanical, 1 miss. Graded the next trading day, 10 Sep 2026, against NSE settlement.

The call: The iron fly lost its maximum, the exact figure published before entry The stated invalidation fired 23,700 decides it, then 23,650 and 23,600 below Low 23,623 and settle 23,635, right between the two named levels Nifty down 144 points, high 23,758 in the first minutes and never touched again Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577 Nifty 50 minus 0.61 while the Next 50 rose 0.52 with 32 up and 17 down Five large banks and Reliance took the index down alone India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of 19 names higher Day one of the new series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts Biggest call add 41 lakh and biggest put add 24 lakh, both at

Graded Thu 10 Sep against the Wed close 23,431. The level call was the day. 23,600 was named as the first question and 23,700 as the heavy resistance and the second question, and neither was reclaimed: the index closed at its exact low with no bounce into the close. The read that the foreign futures short was the only position that had been right the whole way down held again as that book went to a fresh high. And the macro line landed inside a session, Brent called at sixty six cents from 100 and settling 101.21. The miss was the gap estimate, given as 40 to 60 points against a session that kept going. Four on five.

## Chapters

### 1. Cold open: the direction was wrong, the map was right (about 0:00, estimated)

Yesterday I got the direction wrong. The iron fly that we entered went into a loss of its maximum. So those two are different skills, and only one of them is optional. And this morning Brent crude is 66 cents from 100 dollars.

### 2. The receipt: the invalidation fired where it was stated (about 0:24, estimated)

The Nifty settled yesterday at 23,635. I said 23,900 in the pre-open. The high was 23,758, so the target was 150 points away and it never played out. In the first 15 minutes the market slid down and it did not come back to that 23,700 level. So I will put this on record. I said 23,700 decides it, and below it I am on the sidelines looking for 23,650 and 23,600. It broke early and never came back. The low was 23,623 and it settled at 23,635, right between the levels we discussed. The direction was wrong. The map for being wrong was right.

### 3. The tape: five banks and Reliance took the index down (about 1:23, estimated)

The Nifty was down 144 points yesterday. In the first few minutes it made a high of 23,758 and never touched it again. Seventeen up, 31 down, that was the breadth. The Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577. India VIX is around 11, and I say around because the two feeds disagree again. The index fell three times harder than the market underneath it. The Nifty 50 fell 0.61 percent, the Nifty 500 fell 0.22, the total market cap 0.18, and the Next Nifty 50 actually rose 0.52 percent with 32 up and 17 down. India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of the 19 names higher, media was up 1.31 and pharma 0.77. So where did the index go? ICICI Bank was minus 2 percent, Axis minus 1.72, Kotak minus 1.2, Reliance minus 1.16 and HDFC Bank minus 1.17. Five large banks and Reliance took the index down. The other 490 odd stocks did not get that message.

### 4. The board: both sides on one strike again (about 2:55, estimated)

Day one of the 15 September Nifty series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts. The PCR is at 0.649 and max pain stands at 23,750, around 115 points above us. And the number that matters is this. The biggest call add of the day was 41 lakh at the 23,700 strike. The biggest put add was 24 lakh at the 23,700 strike. Both sides piled onto the same strike on day one of the new expiry. Above it, 24,000 carries 82 lakh calls. Below it, 23,500 has 46 lakh puts and 23,000 has 61 lakh, a long way down. Volatility is just below 10 and one standard deviation is 115 points. The band for the day is 23,520 to 23,750. And the basis came back to a premium of 115 points from 88, with futures open interest up 2.73 lakh at the same time. So that was fresh buying of premium rather than short covering.

### 5. Positioning: the one book that never turned (about 4:21, estimated)

The Nifty model is still in sell. The Sensex model is also in sell. Both indices. The foreign index futures short went to 2,61,000, another run high. So the FII book has gone up every single session of this run and has never once turned. It is the only position on the board that has been right the whole way down. The retail naked put book fell to 7 lakh 43,000, but most of that is expiry settling out rather than a decision. Same reason total option open interest halved overnight. Never compare option open interest across an expiry. And the FIIs bought 17,952 crore of index options, the largest of the run, but on an expiry day part of that is settlement mechanics as well.

### 6. Overnight: oil is the biggest thing on the screen (about 5:35, estimated)

Brent is 99.34, up 1.45 percent, and is now 66 cents from 100 dollars. WTI is 94.30, up 1.34. Look at the path. Twelve sessions ago Brent was 86. Now it is 99. A hundred dollar Brent is a different macro for an oil importer, and it is arriving on a rupee that weakened against the pound, the euro, the yen and the yuan yesterday, on a day the dollar index actually fell. So we should have strengthened against those currencies, but we weakened against everything. That is a domestic signal, not a dollar signal. Watch oil and gas, paints, tyres and airlines. North Asia bounced straight back yesterday and this morning, the KOSPI up 1.2 percent after falling 0.59, Taiwan up 0.84 after minus 0.47, the Nikkei up 0.26 after minus 1.73. So I need to correct myself. This is not a clean reversal. It is chop, and in a downtrend we are seeing some bounce in Asia. America fell again on Tuesday, the S&P 0.58 down and the Nasdaq 0.32 down. The Dow future is roughly flat. Gold has bounced 0.4 percent but is still under 4,400 and still rated bearish.

### 7. The plan: the order of the questions changed (about 7:28, estimated)

GIFT Nifty is at 23,662, down 50 points. That points to an open near 23,560 to 23,600, so a gap down of around 40 to 60 points. That has changed from last night, which pointed to a flat open, and it opens us below 23,600, which changes the order of the questions. The first one is whether we reclaim 23,600 and stay above it. 23,700 now becomes an extremely heavy resistance and the second question, not the first. 23,700 is still the whole map. Under it the magnet and the drift are towards 23,750 to 23,800. Take it and hold it and it becomes a trigger, because the people who just wrote 40 lakh calls there are the ones who are going to buy it back. Resistance, keep a watch on 23,700, then 23,750, then 23,800. Support lies at 23,600, then 23,500, and the final support at 23,000 is a long way back. The band for today is 23,520 to 23,750. And let me be straight about the disagreement in front of us. The weekly board points one way, the monthly points higher, and the foreign futures short points lower. Those cannot all be right, and the one that has been right every single day of this run is the short. The risk that outranks the rest is oil at 99 landing on a weakening rupee. After that, America lower again, the foreign futures short at yet another high, and the Sensex expiry tomorrow with a max pain 322 points above spot on a call heavy board. That is exactly the shape the Nifty and the Sensex had going into yesterday, and yesterday the magnet lost. So no structure for me today, unless the market comes to a level. After a settlement that cost the maximum, the right size is smaller, not bigger.

## Key takeaways

- The iron fly lost its maximum, the exact figure published before entry
- The stated invalidation fired: 23,700 decides it, then 23,650 and 23,600 below
- Low 23,623 and settle 23,635, right between the two named levels
- Nifty down 144 points, high 23,758 in the first minutes and never touched again
- Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577
- Nifty 50 minus 0.61 while the Next 50 rose 0.52 with 32 up and 17 down
- Five large banks and Reliance took the index down alone
- India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of 19 names higher
- Day one of the new series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts
- Biggest call add 41 lakh and biggest put add 24 lakh, both at 23,700
- PCR 0.649 with max pain 23,750, around 115 points above spot
- Band 23,520 to 23,750 with one standard deviation at 115 points
- Basis back to a 115 point premium from 88 with futures OI up 2.73 lakh
- Fresh buying of premium rather than short covering
- FII index futures short to 2,61,000, another run high, never once turned
- The only position on the board that has been right the whole way down
- Retail naked put book fell to 7.43 lakh, but mostly expiry settling out
- Never compare option open interest across an expiry boundary
- Brent 99.34, sixty six cents from 100, after being 86 twelve sessions ago
- The rupee weakened against the pound, euro, yen and yuan on a day the dollar fell
- A domestic signal, not a dollar signal: watch oil and gas, paints, tyres, airlines
- GIFT at 23,662 points to an open below 23,600, changing the order of the questions
- Plan on record: reclaim 23,600 first, 23,700 becomes heavy resistance
- No structure today, because after a maximum loss the right size is smaller

## Quotes

> Yesterday I got the direction wrong. The iron fly that we entered went into a loss of its maximum.
>
> The cold open, leading with the loss rather than the process that contained it.

> So those two are different skills, and only one of them is optional.
>
> On getting the direction wrong versus getting the risk right.

> The direction was wrong. The map for being wrong was right.
>
> On a stated invalidation and stated downside levels turning a wrong call into a managed one.

> It broke early and never came back. The low was 23,623 and it settled at 23,635, right between the levels we discussed.
>
> On 23,650 and 23,600 being named on air before the session.

> Five large banks and Reliance took the index down. The other 490 odd stocks did not get that message.
>
> On the Nifty 50 falling three times harder than the market underneath it.

> Both sides piled onto the same strike on day one of the new expiry.
>
> On 41 lakh calls and 24 lakh puts landing together at 23,700.

> A hundred dollar Brent is a different macro for an oil importer.
>
> On Brent at 99.34 after being 86 twelve sessions ago.

> After a settlement that cost the maximum, the right size is smaller, not bigger.
>
> On taking no structure the day after a defined risk trade paid out its cap.

## Transcript

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday I got the direction wrong. The iron fly that we entered went into a loss of its maximum. So those two are different skills, and only one of them is optional. And this morning Brent crude is 66 cents from 100 dollars. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 121. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So the Nifty settled yesterday at 23,635. I said 23,900 in the pre-open. The high was 23,758. So the target was 150 points away and it never played out.

In the first 15 minutes the market slid down and it did not come back to that 23,700 level. So I will put this on record. I said 23,700 decides it, and below it I am on the sidelines looking for 23,650 and 23,600. It broke early and never came back. The low was 23,623 and it settled at 23,635, right between the levels we discussed. The direction was wrong. The map for being wrong was right. The tape. The Nifty was down 144 points yesterday.

In the first few minutes it made a high of 23,758 and never touched it again. Seventeen up, 31 down, that was the Nifty's breadth. The Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577. India VIX is around 11, and I say around because the two feeds disagree again. The index fell three times harder than the market underneath it. 61 percent yesterday. 22 percent. 18 percent. 52 percent with 32 up and 17 down. 5 percent with 18 of the 19 names higher. 77 percent.

So where did the index go? 17. Five large banks and Reliance took the index down. The other 490 odd stocks did not get that message. 99 crore puts. 649 and max pain stands at 23,750, which is around 115 points above us. And the number that matters is this. The biggest call add of the day was 41 lakh at the 23,700 strike. The biggest put add was 24 lakh at the 23,700 strike. Both sides piled onto the same strike on day one of the new expiry.

Above it, 24,000 carries 82 lakh calls. Below it, 23,500 has 46 lakh puts and 23,000 has 61 lakh, a long way down. Volatility is just below 10 and one standard deviation is 115 points. The band for the day is 23,520 to 23,750. 73 lakh at the same time. So that was fresh buying of premium rather than short covering. So the model, one number before I move on. The Nifty model is still in sell. The Sensex model is also in sell. Both indices.

I am going to leave that there and let's see what happens. The foreign index futures short went to 2,61,000, another run high. So the FII book has gone up every single session of this run and has never once turned. It is the only position on the board that has been right the whole way down. The retail naked put book fell to 7 lakh 43,000, but most of that is expiry settling out rather than a decision. Same reason total option open interest halved overnight.

Never compare option open interest across an expiry. And the FIIs bought 17,952 crore of index options, the largest of the run, but on an expiry day part of that is settlement mechanics as well. So the overnight, starting with oil because it is the biggest thing on the screen. 45 percent, and is now 66 cents from 100 dollars. 34 percent. Look at the path. Twelve sessions ago Brent was 86. Now it is 99. A hundred dollar Brent is a different macro for an oil importer, and it is arriving on a rupee that weakened against the pound, the euro, the yen and the yuan yesterday, on a day the dollar index actually fell.

So we should have strengthened against those currencies, but we weakened against everything. That is a domestic signal, not a dollar signal. Watch oil and gas, paints, tyres and airlines. North Asia bounced straight back yesterday and this morning. 59 yesterday. 47. 73. So I need to correct myself. This is not a clean reversal. It is chop, and in a downtrend we are seeing some bounce in Asia. 32 down. The Dow future is roughly flat this morning. 4 percent but is still under the 4,400 mark and is still rated bearish.

So the plan for today. GIFT Nifty is at 23,662, down 50 points. That points to an open near 23,560 to 23,600, so a gap down of around 40 to 60 points. That has changed from last night, which pointed to a flat open, and it opens us below 23,600, which changes the order of the questions. The first one is whether we reclaim 23,600 and stay above it. 23,700 now becomes an extremely heavy resistance and the second question, not the first. 23,700 is still the whole map.

Under it the magnet and the drift are towards 23,750 to 23,800. Take it and hold it and it becomes a trigger, because the people who just wrote 40 lakh calls there are the ones who are going to buy it back. So resistance, keep a watch on 23,700, then 23,750, then 23,800. Support lies at 23,600, then 23,500, and the final support at 23,000 is a long way back, but we are seeing some action there. So the band for today is 23,520 to 23,750.

Remember this. And let me be straight about the disagreement in front of us. The weekly board points one way, the monthly points to 24,100, and the foreign futures short points lower. Those cannot all be right, and the one that has been right every single day of this run is the short. The risk that outranks the rest is oil at 99 landing on a weakening rupee. After that, America lower again on the futures front, the foreign futures short at yet another high, and the Sensex expiry tomorrow with a max pain 322 points above spot on a call heavy board, which stands at roughly 76,000.

That is exactly the shape the Nifty and the Sensex had going into yesterday, and yesterday the magnet lost. So no structure for me today, unless the market comes to a level. After a settlement that cost the maximum, the right size is smaller, not bigger. And for yesterday I will take a 3 on 5. The target was wrong and the fly lost its cap, but the invalidation fired exactly where I said it would, and the two levels I named on the way down are where it settled.

So the market is in a bearish mode. We are seeing some support over there. The broader market is seeing some buying, so the broader market is not selling out yet. We could see some sell off coming in today. Tomorrow is the Sensex expiry, and the magnet as well as the level where it should expire, along with the VWAP, all stand higher than the current levels. So for the Nifty it currently stands at 23,800, whereas for the Sensex it stands roughly around 76,000.

So if you liked this episode, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com where it streams. See you all once again tomorrow. Till then, have a happy Wednesday and happy trading.

## More

- Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/
- September 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-09/
- Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/
- Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record
- Previous: EP120, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-08
- Next: EP122, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-10

Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.