--- title: "Three Indices Closed At The Exact Low, And | The Tanmay Edge" description: "Three indices closed yesterday at the exact low of the day. Not near the low. On it. Brent crossed 100 and then held above it all night." source_url: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-10 episode: 122 season: 2 date: 2026-09-10 duration_seconds: 537 audio: https://content.rss.com/episodes/336728/3138998/tk-s-pre-market-radar/2026_09_10_03_44_38_f8b09496-5a27-49b3-ba34-5305f346e887.mp3 grade: 4.5/5 generated: instiv2-tools/build-podcast.mjs (do not rebuild from the HTML) --- # Three indices closed at the exact low, and Brent crossed 100 and held it all night The Tanmay Edge, Season 2, EP122, Thursday 10 Sep 2026, 8:57. Nifty, Sensex and BANKEX all closed at the exact low of the day ## Scorecard Grade 4.5/5 (90 percent): 4 hit, 1 partial, 0 mechanical, 0 miss. Graded the next trading day, 11 Sep 2026, against NSE settlement. The call: Nifty, Sensex and BANKEX all closed at the exact low of the day Nifty settled 23,431, down 203.60, with a low of 23,431 Sensex settled 74,764, also its low, and the BANKEX did the same India VIX rose 6.5 percent to just under 12, the first real volatility bid of the run IT index fell 3.24 percent with zero names up and ten down Infosys added 3.29 crore shares of futures OI while the future fell 4.64 percent HDFC Bank added 5.44 crore of OI while it fell 2.07 percent Nifty 50 fell 0.86 while the Next 50 fell only 0.13 Cash market 938 up against 1,671 down, the damage at the top and spreading Biggest call add 72 lakh and biggest put add 35 lakh, both at Graded Fri 11 Sep against the Thu Sensex settlement 74,902.59. Close to a textbook expiry call: he said open below 75,000, the magnet should hold it, and lose it and go 500 lower. It opened 74,742.54, never reclaimed 75,000 with a high 89 points short, never broke down, and settled 74,902.59 against a final max pain of 74,900. A pin inside three points. The 74,000 level named as the downside was shown to be the heaviest put on the board rather than a round number. What did not work was the other half of the same call: the long straddle and strangle instruction lost on a 312 point range against a 452 straddle, so being right about where it settles and wrong about how far it travels is one call, not two. Four and a half out of five. ## Chapters ### 1. Cold open: three indices closed on the exact low (about 0:00, estimated) Three indices yesterday closed at the exact low of the day. Not near the low, on it. Brent crossed 100 and then stayed above it all night. And this morning there is no green anywhere in Asia. ### 2. The tape: nobody stepped in at the end (about 0:20, estimated) The Nifty settled yesterday at 23,431, down 203 points, and the low of the day was 23,431. The same number. The Sensex settled at 74,764 and that was its low too. The BANKEX did the same thing. There was no bounce into the close and nobody stepped in at the end. Thirteen up, 36 down inside the Nifty 50. And India VIX rose about 6.5 percent to just under the 12 mark, the first real bid for volatility in this entire run. ### 3. Rising open interest with falling prices is fresh selling (about 1:05, estimated) So what did it? IT did it. The IT index fell 3.24 percent with zero names up and ten down. Infosys was down 4.34 percent, HCL Tech 3.70. Eleven of the eleven IT names in the official file closed lower on my screen as well. But here is the part that matters more than the fall. The money is going in against it. Infosys added 3.29 crore shares of fresh futures open interest while the future fell 4.64 percent. HDFC Bank added 5.44 crore while it fell 2.07 percent. Rising open interest with falling prices is fresh selling, not covering. Underneath, the shape has not changed but the participation has. The Nifty 50 fell 0.86 percent, the Nifty Next 50 only 0.13 percent, but the cash market overall was 938 up against 1,671 down. The damage is at the top and the number of stocks taking part in it expanded sharply. Metals and energy were the only places that worked. ### 4. The board: both sides on one strike, now above us (about 2:37, estimated) Now the board, and there is one number on it. The biggest call add on the entire 15 September expiry was at 23,500, 72 lakh calls. And the biggest put add was also at the same strike, 35 lakh puts. Both sides piled on the same price, on the same strike. Two days ago it was 23,700 and it sat below us. Now it is 23,500 and it sits 68 points above us. Under it, it is a magnet. Take it and hold it and it becomes a trigger, because the people who just wrote 72 lakh calls there have to buy them back. Calls were written hard again and the PCR fell to 0.591. I think that should be the low of the PCR that we get. ### 5. The tension: a level today's volatility does not reach (about 3:41, estimated) Max pain is still above the market and is at the 23,600 mark, 168 points above us. One standard deviation is 121 points for the day, and the band currently stands at 23,310 to 23,550. Notice the tension. Max pain is 23,600 and the band stops out at 23,550. So the board wants a level that today's own volatility does not reach. And the basis went to plus 121 points, with futures open interest up 6.14 lakh. So for a second day that is fresh buying of premium into a falling market. That means people are averaging. ### 6. A magnet that follows the market is being repriced (about 4:36, estimated) The Sensex expires today and its magnet did something worth watching. Max pain is 75,000, 236 points above the spot, against 75,900 on Tuesday's file. The market fell 813 points and the magnet fell 900. That is the opposite of the Nifty expiry, where the magnet sat still and the market walked away from it. A magnet that follows the market is not defending the level. It is repricing it. On the positioning front, the FII futures short went to 2 lakh 76,250, another run high, and it has never once turned in this run. But one of them changed sides. The professional desks went from net short 45,000 index calls to net long 14,500 calls. So they stopped selling upside and started buying it, on a day the index closed on its low. And the retail sold 88,000 more naked puts, taking that book to 8 lakh 31,678 short, the third highest of this run, and they sold it into the fall. ### 7. The plan: Brent held above 100, and that is the stronger story (about 6:09, estimated) Overnight, Brent settled at 101.21. Yesterday morning I told you it was 66 cents from 100 dollars, and that it was a risk that outranked everything else on the page. It took one day. This morning it is at 101.12, essentially unchanged, after trading overnight between 101 and 101.90. The entire overnight range sat above 100. That is the hold, not a spike, and it is the stronger version of the story. The rupee weakened again yesterday to 95. That is not a dollar story anymore. That is oil landing on the import bill. And Asia has gone red across the board, there is no green market on my screen: Hang Seng minus 1.52, KOSPI minus 1.03, Taiwan minus 0.93, the Nikkei minus 0.88. Last night the KOSPI was up 1.38 and Shanghai was up; this morning every one of them is lower. Gold is at 4,418 and has been upgraded from bearish to neutral, its first rating change in this whole run. So the plan. GIFT Nifty is at 23,496, which puts the open towards 23,440 to 23,460, so we open roughly on yesterday's low. That only stays true if the market cannot bounce off 23,500. Resistance stands at 23,500, then 23,600 and 23,700. Support is 23,420 and below it 23,330, with 23,310 the band low. On the Sensex expiry we are opening below 75,000, which is still max pain and the strike traders would try to reclaim; lose it and we go 500 points below, so 74,000 is what I am looking at. Trade extremely light today. Go long straddles, long strangles. Do not sell options on today's expiry. If you want to sell, put iron flies in place and carry those. No trading after 3:15, nothing in the cash session. ## Key takeaways - Nifty, Sensex and BANKEX all closed at the exact low of the day - Nifty settled 23,431, down 203.60, with a low of 23,431 - Sensex settled 74,764, also its low, and the BANKEX did the same - India VIX rose 6.5 percent to just under 12, the first real volatility bid of the run - IT index fell 3.24 percent with zero names up and ten down - Infosys added 3.29 crore shares of futures OI while the future fell 4.64 percent - HDFC Bank added 5.44 crore of OI while it fell 2.07 percent - Nifty 50 fell 0.86 while the Next 50 fell only 0.13 - Cash market 938 up against 1,671 down, the damage at the top and spreading - Biggest call add 72 lakh and biggest put add 35 lakh, both at 23,500 - The both sides strike migrated from 23,700 to 23,500 and now sits above spot - PCR fell to 0.591, which TK reads as the likely low of the run - Max pain 23,600 sits 168 points above spot and outside the 1SD band - Band 23,310 to 23,550 against a max pain of 23,600 - Basis to plus 121 with futures OI up 6.14 lakh, a second day of buying premium - Sensex max pain fell to 75,000 from 75,900 while the market fell 813 points - The magnet fell 900 points, so it is being repriced rather than defended - FII futures short to 2,76,250, another run high, never once turned - Pros went from net short 45,000 index calls to net long 14,500 - Retail sold 88,000 more naked puts to 8,31,678, into the fall - Brent settled 101.21 and held the entire overnight range above 100 - Gold upgraded bearish to neutral, its first rating change of the run - Asia red across the board with no green market on the screen - Plan on record: trade light, long straddles and strangles, nothing after 3:15 ## Quotes > Three indices yesterday closed at the exact low of the day. Not near the low, on it. > > The cold open, on the Nifty, Sensex and BANKEX all settling at their own low. > There was no bounce into the close and nobody stepped in at the end. > > On what a close equal to the low says that no breadth statistic does. > Rising open interest with falling prices is fresh selling, not covering. > > On Infosys adding 3.29 crore shares of futures OI while the future fell 4.64 percent. > Both sides piled on the same price, on the same strike. > > On 72 lakh calls and 35 lakh puts landing together at 23,500. > So the board wants a level that today's own volatility does not reach. > > On max pain at 23,600 sitting outside a band that stops at 23,550. > A magnet that follows the market is not defending the level. It is repricing it. > > On Sensex max pain falling 900 points while the market fell 813. > The entire overnight range sat above 100. That is the hold, not a spike. > > On Brent settling 101.21 the day after being called 66 cents away. > That is not a dollar story anymore. That is oil landing on the import bill. > > On the rupee weakening again to 95. ## Transcript A very good morning, guys. Three indices yesterday closed at the exact low of the day. Not near the low, on it. Brent crossed 100 and then stayed above it all night. And this morning there is no green anywhere in Asia. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 122. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So the Nifty settled yesterday at 23,431, down 203 points. And the low of the day was 23,431. The same number. The Sensex settled at 74,764 and that was its low too. The BANKEX did the same thing. There was no bounce into the close and nobody stepped in at the end. Thirteen up, 36 down inside the Nifty 50. 5 percent to just under the 12 mark, the first real bid for volatility in this entire run. So what did it? IT did it. 24 percent with zero names up and ten down. 70. Eleven of the eleven IT names in the official file closed lower on my screen as well. But here is the part that matters more than the fall. The money is going in against it. 64 percent. 07 percent. Rising open interest with falling prices is fresh selling, not covering. Underneath, the shape has not changed but the participation has. 13 percent, but the cash market overall was 938 up against 1,671 down. The damage is at the top and the number of stocks taking part in it expanded sharply. Metals and energy were the only places that worked. Now the board, and there is one number on it. The biggest call add on the entire 15 September expiry was at 23,500, 72 lakh calls. And the biggest put add was also at the same strike, 35 lakh puts. Both sides piled on the same price, on the same strike. Two days ago it was 23,700 and it sat below us. Now it is 23,500 and it sits 68 points above us. Under it, it is a magnet. Take it and hold it and it becomes a trigger, because the people who just wrote 72 lakh calls there have to buy them back. 591. I think that should be the low of the PCR that we get. Max pain is still above the market and is at the 23,600 mark, 168 points above us. One standard deviation is 121 points for the day, and the band currently stands at 23,310 to 23,550. Notice the tension. Max pain is 23,600 and the band stops out at 23,550. So the board wants a level that today's own volatility does not reach. 14 lakh. So for a second day that is fresh buying of premium into a falling market. That means people are averaging. The Sensex expires today and its magnet did something worth watching. Max pain is 75,000, 236 points above the spot, against 75,900 on Tuesday's file. The market fell 813 points and the magnet fell 900. That is the opposite of the Nifty expiry, where the magnet sat still and the market walked away from it. A magnet that follows the market is not defending the level. It is repricing it. On the positioning front, guys, the FII futures short went to 2 lakh 76,250, another run high, and it has never once turned in this run. But one of them changed sides. The professional desks went from net short 45,000 index calls to net long 14,500 calls. So they stopped selling upside and started buying it, on a day the index closed on its low. And the retail sold 88,000 more naked puts, taking that book to 8 lakh 31,678 short, the third highest of this run, and they sold it into the fall. 21. Yesterday morning I told you it was 66 cents from 100 dollars, and that it was a risk that outranked everything else on the page. It took one day. 90. The entire overnight range sat above 100. That is the hold, not a spike, and it is the stronger version of the story. The rupee weakened again yesterday to 95. That is not a dollar story anymore. That is oil landing on the import bill. And Asia has gone red across the board, guys. There is no green market on my screen. 88. 38 percent and Shanghai was up. This morning every one of them is lower. Europe fell hard too. 32 percent this morning. Gold is at 4,418 and has been upgraded from bearish to neutral, its first rating change in this whole run. So the plan. Today is not going to be an easy day. GIFT Nifty is at 23,496, which puts the open towards 23,440 to 23,460. So we open flat, which means we open roughly on yesterday's low. Asia is red, Europe closed down 2 percent. That combination is a market refusing to rise on any of the supports. That only stays true if the market is not able to bounce off 23,500. If it bounces 23,500, we have something positive. But today, under it, it is the magnet. Take it and hold it. Above it, the next one is 23,600, which is the max pain. Resistance currently stands at 23,500, then 23,600 and 23,700. Support is at 23,420 and below it stands directly at 23,330. So 23,310 is the band low, so that is where the market might touch intraday. Keep a watch on that. So what do we do on the Sensex expiry. For the Sensex expiry, guys, we are opening below 75,000. 75,000 is still the max pain and the strike the traders would try to reclaim, and the magnet should hold it. But losing it and we should go 500 points below it. So 74,000 is what I am looking at, and we should hit over there on Friday. So keep a watch on that strike. Trade extremely light today. Go long straddles, long strangles. Do not sell options on today's expiry. Also, guys, if you want to sell options, put iron flies in place and carry those iron flies till then. So no trading after 3:15, as we are doing it. So nothing in the cash session, the market closes at 3:50. Yesterday, I will take a four out of five. The call was right and it was never reclaimed. So if you liked this episode, guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. com. And have a safe and happy expiry. See you all once again tomorrow. Until then, bye bye. ## More - Podcast archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/ - September 2026 archive: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/2026-09/ - Season 2 index: https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/season-2/ - Track record and method: https://www.rupeecase.com/track-record - Previous: EP121, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-09 - Next: EP123, https://www.rupeecase.com/podcast/episodes/2026-09-11 Market commentary for education only. Not investment advice. RupeeCase is not a SEBI registered investment adviser.