Season 2, Episode 34 | 2026-05-07

EP34 | The Tanmay Edge

Sensex expiry day. The chain has voted: pin 78,000, floor 77,500, cap 78,500.FIIs are sitting on 1,94,099 short index futures contracts. The market gave them a +1.22% rally yesterday | they covered 4,014. Two percent.

Cold Open | The Trap

FIIs are short 194099 index futures contracts. 199420 short calls. The market gave them a +1.24 percent rally yesterday and they covered 4014. 4014. That is 2 percent of their book. Today is Sensex expiry. The chain doesn't lie. This is The Tanmay Edge.

Intro Sting | Season 2 Episode 34

India's pre market edge. Five minutes. Every trading day. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Season 2. Episode 34. Let's go.

Global Cues | Asia On Fire, Crude Collapsed

Picture this. Tuesday afternoon FIIs sold 3622 crore in cash and walked into the deepest short of the month at minus 198113 index futures contracts. They went home short. They went home confident. Wednesday opened. Sensex bottomed at 76773 around 1 PM. Then the news hit. US Iran peace talks. Crude collapsing minus 8 percent. Rate cut whispers. Bank Nifty ripped +2.74 percent. Sensex closed 77958.52 plus 940 points off the lows. The FIIs covered 4014. That is not a cover. That is a flinch. US closed strong. Dow Fut 49961. S and P 500 7365. Nasdaq 25838. Plus 2.02 percent on the tech tape. Europ…

FII Trap In Full | Three On One Math

FII book in full. Index futures net short 194099. They were minus 198113 Tuesday. Covered 4014 on a +1.24 percent day. 2 percent of their book. Options louder. Short 199420 calls. Covered 88044 in one session. Biggest single day call cover in May. Long plus 356403 puts. Trimmed 25888. Net F and O bias still bearish, marginally unwinding. 7.5 lakh contracts of bearish stack walking into expiry. Who's on the other side. Client long 130228 futures. Retail bullish. DII long 29993. Domestic bullish. Pro long 29382. Prop bullish. FII is the only net short in the room. Three out of four players bulli…

The Chain Has Voted | Pin 78000, Cap 78500

What did the chain do while the FIIs were flinching. It voted. Hard. 78000 has 2.44 million combined OI stacked at one strike. Bigger than the next two strikes combined. Put writers added plus 1.14 million contracts in a single session. Not hedging. Conviction. Call writers covered 211560 at the same level. Both sides agreed. Settle here. Below. 77500. 1.45 million put OI. Put writers added plus 1.25 million in one day. Biggest single day put write on the entire chain. Floors don't get more conviction backed than that. Above. 78500. 1.20 million call OI. Call writers added plus 309540 here. Th…

Sectors + Broader Market | Where The Real Money Lives

What was actually leading yesterday. Not IT. IT was the laggard plus 0.55 percent. Not Reliance. Down minus 1.80 percent, the biggest weight dragging the index. Not FMCG. The only red sector minus 0.26 percent. It was the cyclicals. PSU Bank plus 2.84. Realty plus 2.63. Auto plus 2.41. Pharma plus 2.30. Bank Nifty plus 2.74. Every sector that benefits from cheaper energy and a softer rupee outlook lit up. Banks rallying on rate cut whispers. Realty on lower yields. Autos on cheaper inputs. The crude collapse wasn't a headline. It was a sector rotation in real time. Bond market agreed. India 10…

Education + Verdict | Pin Risk, Two Scenarios, Buy On Dips

Quick one on pin risk. When a strike has more open interest than the next 3 combined, like 78000 has 2.44 million today, the chain becomes a magnet. Gravity pulls price to the strike. But gravity breaks when another heavy strike is right above and gets tested at the open. 78500's 1.20 million call wall. That is the gravity breaker. Today's path. Open at 78500. At the wall. Two scenarios. One. Price holds above 78500 for the first hour. Call writers cover. Squeeze accelerates. 79000 in play. Two. Rejection at 78500 and fade back to 78000. Chain pins. Vol crushes. My read. Buy on dips. FIIs trap…

RupeeCase Read + CTA

RupeeCase Nifty 50 model. Last rebal Monday. Plus 0.24 percent since rebal versus Nifty plus 0.89. Soft minus 65 bps on the day. Lifetime alpha plus 16.30 percent. CAGR 15.87 percent. SHRIRAMFIN plus 4.79 since rebal. Financials leadership flowing through. ONGC and POWERGRID dragged on the crude collapse. Cost of being a quant model in a sharp commodity move. Rotation will catch up. Next rebal 1 June. That is your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Never miss a session. I am building RupeeCase. India's sy…

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. FISR shot 194000 index futures contracts. 199000 short calls. The market gave them a 1.24% rally yesterday and they covered 4000. Yes, correct. 4000. That's 2% of their book. Today is Sensex expiry. The chain doesn't lie. This is the Tanmay Edge. India's pre -market edge. Every trading day. I am Tanmay Gurthakuti. Season 2. Episode 34. Let's go. So picture this. On Tuesday afternoon, the FIS sold 3622 crore in cash. Tuesday, close. They were sitting on the deepest short position of the main month. 198000. Index futures short. Cash sold. Futures shorted. Calls returned. Puts loaded. They went home short. They went home confident. Then Wednesday opened. Sensex bottomed at 76773. And around 1 p .m., the news hit. U .S.-Iran peace talks grinding traction. Crew collapsed almost 8%. Rate cut whispers started getting louder. Bank Nifty ripped. 2.74%. Sensex closed at almost 78000 plus 940 points of the loss. The FIS covered 4000 contracts. That's not a cover. That's a flinch. While they were flinching, the world kept rallying. US closed extremely strong. Dow futures was up almost 1.4%. S &P 500 up by 1.46%. NASDAQ almost 2%. So Europe finished green across the board. FTSE was up by 2%. TAC was up by almost 3%. DAX was up by 2.07%. And today morning, Asia is on fire. Nikkei is almost 5.67% in a single session. The strongest Japan day in... months hang seng 1.47 percent taiwan 2.18 percent kospi 0.28 and shanghai 0.20 bips crude brent Trading at 101.71. Basically, flat and crashed from yesterday. Gold at 4701 neutral. Dollar index below that 98 dollar mark. Rupee strengthened 70 bits to close at 94.61. And India's 10 -year yield down 6 to 6.94%. That's a rate cut signal hard -coded. And then, Gift Nifty is trading around 24500. That's 170 points versus Nifty's close of 24331 that yesterday we saw. Sensex improved. Applied open should be around roughly around 78400 to 500 each. That's right at the cap, not above the pin at the wall. But and the setup…

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