Season 2, Episode 38 | 2026-05-13

EP38 | The Tanmay Edge

Three sessions ago, 24000 was the resistance. Tuesday it became 23500. Smart money does not slide a level 500 points lower in one session because they are predicting a move. They do it because they are reacting to one.

Cold Open | The Ceiling Slid 500 Points In One Session

Three sessions ago, 24000 was the ceiling. Today that ceiling is gone. Professional traders just slid it 500 points lower to 23500. And here is what nobody is saying. When smart money slides a level in one session, they are not predicting. They are reacting. And what they are reacting to is buyers waiting underneath. This is The Tanmay Edge. Season two, episode 38. Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go.

Global + Commodities | Brent Cracked 107. Rupee 95.63 Record. India Decoupled.

GIFT Nifty 23436 flat at six AM but the macro lane just got hotter overnight. Brent crude crossed 107 dollars. Three sessions ago it was 95. Crude is up nearly 12 percent in two weeks. Trump rejected the Iran peace deal Sunday night and markets are still pricing it. Dollar Index 98.31 firm. Rupee 95.63 fresh record low after breaking 95.50 overnight, the exact trigger marked yesterday. S&P 500 7401 sitting near the 7413 record. India bleeding three sessions deep while the US prints all time highs. The decoupling story is real until crude breaks back below 103 or the rupee recovers below 95.

Pro . FII . Client | Pro Doubled The Wall At The Old Floor

Pro held futures at plus 22977 contracts almost unchanged. But the call short position flipped from minus 30428 Monday to minus 184489 Tuesday. That is 154061 more call shorts in one session. Pro doubled the wall AFTER the floor at 23500 had already broken. They also trimmed long put hedge from 249074 to 186337. Took some profit on the puts that paid Monday. Stayed long puts but less defensive. Translation . Pro thinks the move from here is sideways under 23500 not a fresh leg down. FII covered some calls to minus 250003 from minus 298757 and added 63354 more long puts. Client added 105032 mor…

Levels In Plain Language | 23500 Sell Zone, 23200 to 23300 Buy Zone, 23000 Deep Floor

23500 is the new resistance. Pro stacked 3.3 million contracts of call shorts here. Until 23500 breaks with volume AND conviction, do not chase rallies into it. 23800 the secondary ceiling if 23500 breaks. 23300 to 23400 the mid range. Mechanical chop. No edge. Stand down. 23200 the first support test. If we trade below this WITH a hedge in place, we are in the buy zone. 23000 the deep floor with 4.6 million put OI . heaviest single strike on the chain. 20 DMA broke yesterday which is why rallies feel weak. 50 DMA sits in the 23500 to 23600 zone exactly where Pro is selling. 100 DMA around 232…

Screener + Sectors | VIX 19.26, 24 BPS Below The 19.50 Regime Gate

India VIX 19.26 at Tuesday close up 3.83 percent in one session. Still 24 basis points below the 19.50 line tracked as the regime gate. If VIX closes above 19.50 today we move from elevated continuation to stress. That matters for premium sellers. Every Nifty bucket on Strong Sell on the screener. Banking, IT, Energy, Auto, Metal, FMCG all on sell. Only Pharma and Chemicals neutral. Broad weakness not stock specific. Worst hit Tuesday . Realty minus 4.11 percent. IT minus 3.73. Consumer Durables minus 3.59. Rupee at 95 killing IT margins again. Same playbook as 2022. But defensive commodity se…

Tanmay's Read | Buy Dips With Hedges Toward 24000. Hedges Not Optional.

The bleed is real but it is getting overdone. Three sessions down. FII cumulative outflow at 52632 crore. DII absorbed 7990 crore Tuesday . the biggest single session of this run. When domestic institutions are buying this aggressively into foreign selling, the floor is being built quietly even when the chart looks ugly. POV . buy on dips with hedges. Hedges are mandatory. Dips at 23200 to 23300 . the 100 DMA zone . and only with the 23000 put long as the floor. Buy zone exits at 23500. If 23500 breaks with conviction the runway opens to 23800 then 24000. I expect a sharp reversal back toward …

RupeeCase Nifty | Alpha Plus 0.80 Tuesday. Metals + Energy Absorbed The Bleed.

RupeeCase Nifty 10 portfolio fell 0.82 percent Tuesday while Nifty fell 1.62 percent. Alpha plus 0.80 percent. ONGC up 4.70. HINDALCO up 1.86. The metals and energy tilt absorbed the bleed. The defensive setup paid. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. The lesson . you do not need to call the bottom. You need to size the buy, hedge the buy, and wait. Smart money does not chase. It positions.

CTA Close | Share With One Trader. Subscribe. Stream Live.

That's your edge for today. If this added value share it with one trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I'm building RupeeCase . India's systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow.

Highlights

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning guys. Three sessions ago, 24000 was the ceiling. Today that ceiling is gone. Professional traders just moved it 500 points lower to 23500. And here is what nobody is saying. When smart money slides a level down in one session, they are not predicting, they are reacting. And what they are reacting to is the buyers waiting underneath that. This is the Tanmay Edge, India's pre-market edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti, guys. Season 2, episode 38. Let's go. Gift Nifty is trading around 23436 flat. But the macro lane just got hotter overnight. Brent crude crossed $107 yesterday. Three sessions ago, it was around $95. Crude is up nearly 12% in two weeks. The reason? Trump rejected the Iran peace deal on Sunday. Night market priced the news on Monday they are still pricing it. Dollar index at 98.31 is trading firmly. Rupee is trading at 95.63 a fresh record low for rupee and the rupee 95.50 overnight as well. That was the line I marked yesterday as the trigger. And US markets, S&P 500 at 7401, off the record highs of 7413. Nasdaq off all-time high by 0.7%. Europe was ready yesterday. Asia is mixed today. Nikkei is flat. Kospi is up 0.5%. India is bleeding three sessions deep while US sits on record highs. That's quite disturbing. The decoupling story is now real. Until the crude breaks back below $100 mark or rupee recovers below that 94000, we stay defensive. Now to the part that matters the most. What did the smart money actually do yesterday on Nifty's expiry? Pros, the professional trading desks, they held the futures position at plus 22977 contracts, almost unchanged from Monday. But here is the move nobody thought about. Their call short position went from minus 30000 on Monday to minus 184000 on Tuesday. That is a 150000 more call shorts in one session. Pro just doubled down on the resistance at 23500 and they did it after the floor at 23500 had already broken. They also trimmed their long puts hedges from 249000 to 186000. So the hedge has been reduced.…

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