05 May 2026

Pulled the data on the 16 RupeeCase strategies last week and stopped on one comparison.

Two strategies share the exact same defensive recipe. Eighty percent equity, ten percent LIQUIDCASE, ten percent GOLDBEES, fortnight rebalance. Same overlay, same cadence. The only knob that moved was which equity universe held the eighty percent. Strategy 05 Allcap Multi Asset runs Nifty Total Market, fifty names. Strategy 10 LargeMid Multi Asset runs LargeMidCap 250, forty names.

Five-year backtest, identical window. Allcap MA delivered 43.57 percent CAGR with max drawdown of -21.35 percent. LargeMid MA delivered 37.12 percent CAGR with max drawdown of -17.61 percent. The narrower universe gave up 6.45 percentage points of headline return. It saved 3.74 percentage points of drawdown, 2.31 percentage points of annualised volatility, and on its worst week the broader version printed -10.38 while the narrower one printed -7.73.

Now the year that decided behaviour. 2025. Allcap MA closed -1.7 percent. LargeMid MA closed +10.1 percent. Same recipe. Different universe. Twelve percentage points of separation in a single calendar year.

Here is the math nobody runs.

A -10 percent dip needs +11 to break even. A -20 needs +25. A -30 needs +43. A -50 needs +100. The loss is always bigger than its mirror gain, and the gap widens fast as the dip deepens.

Allcap MA spent 371 days underwater on its deepest drawdown. LargeMid MA spent 350. Most retail money does not stay seated for 371 days when the strategy was bought because of a CAGR headline. The strategy that gets held is the strategy that earns its CAGR.

The brochure leads with CAGR. The brochure is wrong about which number matters first. CAGR is what you earn if you stay. Drawdown is what decides whether you stay.

Pick the drawdown you can actually sit through. The CAGR follows.

The 28-question behavioural fit wizard at https://rupeecase.com/risk-profile.html maps tolerance against the drawdown you would actually hold.