Verifiable Track Record
Every prediction. Every grade. In public.
Each weekday morning at 8:30 IST, The Tanmay Edge ships a 5-prediction set on Indian markets.
Levels, expiry pins, IV moves, chain flips. Same-day after market close, every prediction is graded
against the actual print. The data is here. No cherry-picking, no edit history, no excuses.
Hit rate 71% on 45 graded calls across 9 episodes.
Episodes graded
9
last 10 trail
Partials
8
18% directionally right
Misses
12
27% wrong, on record
| EP |
Date |
Day |
Title |
Score |
Hit |
Part. |
Miss |
| EP123 |
2026-09-11 |
Fri |
I Called The Pin And It Landed Inside Three Points. I Also Told You To Buy Volatility And That Leg Lost 349. | Brent Went Vertical To 107.85 | The Nikkei Is Down Three Percent |
TBD |
0 |
0 |
0 |
| EP122 |
2026-09-10 |
Thu |
Three Indices Closed At The Exact Low, And Brent Crossed 100 And Held It All Night | There Is No Green In Asia This Morning | Both Sides Just Piled Onto 23,500 |
4.5/5 |
4 |
1 |
0 |
| EP121 |
2026-09-09 |
Wed |
I Got The Direction Wrong And The Fly Lost 73.55, Which Is The Exact Number I Published Before I Entered It | The Wings Saved 33 Points | And My Model Projected The Settlement To Within 2.85 Points |
4/5 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
| EP120 |
2026-09-08 |
Tue |
Friday's Board Was Built For A Rally And It Took One Session To Take The Whole Thing Apart | 659 Lakh Calls Written, 189 Lakh Puts Covered | I Am Still Buying The Dip Into 23,600 With An Expiry Target Of 23,900 |
3/5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| EP119 |
2026-09-07 |
Mon |
The Board Got Ready For A Rally And The Close Did Not Get The Memo | Calls Covered, Puts Written, Volatility Crushed, And Now We Open 35 Points Lower | The First Question Today Is 23,900, Not 24,000 |
4/5 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
| EP118 |
2026-09-04 |
Fri |
It Is Not Volume. It Is One Way Flow. | Three Tests In Three Days Settle The Closing Auction Argument | On Expiry Day It Mispriced One Stock Out Of 210 Against 72 Out Of 1,955 Outside It |
3.5/5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
| EP117 |
2026-09-03 |
Thu |
I Tested My Own Finding And It Did Not Repeat | Correlation Minus 0.712 On The Rebalance Day, Minus 0.087 On A Normal One | 44 Stocks Mispriced Then, One Now | The Auction Is Not Broken, It Is Thin |
4/5 |
4 |
0 |
1 |
| EP116 |
2026-09-02 |
Wed |
The Auction Gave It All Back | 69 of the 70 Stocks It Marked Up on Monday Fell on Tuesday | Correlation Minus 0.712 Inside the Auction, Zero Outside It | ITC Printed 255.50, Closed 266.60 |
2.5/5 |
1 |
1 |
3 |
| EP115 |
2026-09-01 |
Tue |
MSCI Rebalance: Reliance 87% Delivery, Adani Energy -10.4%, Zero Auction Dislocation In The Large Caps | 111 Micro-Caps Broke Anyway | IV Explodes 49%, Both Signals Flip To BUY VOL | S2Ep115 1st Sept Tuesday |
3/5 |
2 |
1 |
2 |
| EP114 |
2026-08-31 |
Mon |
The Banks Bought Themselves Back | BANKEX Recovers 650 of 1,094 Points | Puts +311 Lakh, Calls -36 Lakh, PCR Turns for the First Time in Four Sessions |
3.5/5 |
2 |
2 |
1 |
Methodology
Each episode locks 5 specific predictions before market open. The set is committed in /data/podcast-prediction-trail.json (sourced from project_epNN_eod.md and project_epNN_graded.md memory files) and is read-only after the open bell.
- Hit: the call printed exactly as stated. Level held, pin landed, IV moved as predicted.
- Partial: directionally right but missed magnitude or timing.
- Miss: the prediction failed.
- Mech (mechanic-fired): the option setup paid out even though the spot path was different. Counted separately.
Grading happens at EOD against the official NSE close + BhavCopy data. The trail keeps the last 10 episodes; older history is archived in the corresponding daily and graded memory files.
Updated 2026-09-11 from /data/podcast-prediction-trail.json