Season 2, Episode 121 | 2026-09-09

I Got The Direction Wrong And The Fly Lost 73.55, Which Is The Exact Number I Published Before I Entered It | The Wings Saved 33 Points | And My Model Projected The Settlement To Within 2.85 Points

I got yesterday's direction wrong. The iron fly lost 73.55 points, which is the exact number I published before I entered it. Those are two different skills, and only one of them is optional.THE RECEIPT. The Nifty settled 23,635.

Verdict: 4/5 | 4 HIT, 1 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.

Cold Open | The Direction Was Wrong, The Map Was Right

Yesterday I got the direction wrong. The iron fly that we entered went into a loss of its maximum. So those two are different skills, and only one of them is optional. And this morning Brent crude is 66 cents from 100 dollars.

The Receipt | The Invalidation Fired Where It Was Stated

The Nifty settled yesterday at 23,635. I said 23,900 in the pre-open. The high was 23,758, so the target was 150 points away and it never played out. In the first 15 minutes the market slid down and it did not come back to that 23,700 level. So I will put this on record. I said 23,700 decides it, and below it I am on the sidelines looking for 23,650 and 23,600. It broke early and never came back. The low was 23,623 and it settled at 23,635, right between the levels we discussed. The direction was wrong. The map for being wrong was right.

The Tape | Five Banks And Reliance Took The Index Down

The Nifty was down 144 points yesterday. In the first few minutes it made a high of 23,758 and never touched it again. Seventeen up, 31 down, that was the breadth. The Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577. India VIX is around 11, and I say around because the two feeds disagree again. The index fell three times harder than the market underneath it. The Nifty 50 fell 0.61 percent, the Nifty 500 fell 0.22, the total market cap 0.18, and the Next Nifty 50 actually rose 0.52 percent with 32 up and 17 down. India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of the 19 names higher, media was up 1.31 and…

The Board | Both Sides On One Strike Again

Day one of the 15 September Nifty series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts. The PCR is at 0.649 and max pain stands at 23,750, around 115 points above us. And the number that matters is this. The biggest call add of the day was 41 lakh at the 23,700 strike. The biggest put add was 24 lakh at the 23,700 strike. Both sides piled onto the same strike on day one of the new expiry. Above it, 24,000 carries 82 lakh calls. Below it, 23,500 has 46 lakh puts and 23,000 has 61 lakh, a long way down. Volatility is just below 10 and one standard deviation is 115 points. The band for the day is 23…

Positioning | The One Book That Never Turned

The Nifty model is still in sell. The Sensex model is also in sell. Both indices. The foreign index futures short went to 2,61,000, another run high. So the FII book has gone up every single session of this run and has never once turned. It is the only position on the board that has been right the whole way down. The retail naked put book fell to 7 lakh 43,000, but most of that is expiry settling out rather than a decision. Same reason total option open interest halved overnight. Never compare option open interest across an expiry. And the FIIs bought 17,952 crore of index options, the largest…

Overnight | Oil Is The Biggest Thing On The Screen

Brent is 99.34, up 1.45 percent, and is now 66 cents from 100 dollars. WTI is 94.30, up 1.34. Look at the path. Twelve sessions ago Brent was 86. Now it is 99. A hundred dollar Brent is a different macro for an oil importer, and it is arriving on a rupee that weakened against the pound, the euro, the yen and the yuan yesterday, on a day the dollar index actually fell. So we should have strengthened against those currencies, but we weakened against everything. That is a domestic signal, not a dollar signal. Watch oil and gas, paints, tyres and airlines. North Asia bounced straight back yesterda…

The Plan | The Order Of The Questions Changed

GIFT Nifty is at 23,662, down 50 points. That points to an open near 23,560 to 23,600, so a gap down of around 40 to 60 points. That has changed from last night, which pointed to a flat open, and it opens us below 23,600, which changes the order of the questions. The first one is whether we reclaim 23,600 and stay above it. 23,700 now becomes an extremely heavy resistance and the second question, not the first. 23,700 is still the whole map. Under it the magnet and the drift are towards 23,750 to 23,800. Take it and hold it and it becomes a trigger, because the people who just wrote 40 lakh ca…

Highlights

The iron fly lost its maximum, the exact figure published before entry
The stated invalidation fired: 23,700 decides it, then 23,650 and 23,600 below
Low 23,623 and settle 23,635, right between the two named levels
Nifty down 144 points, high 23,758 in the first minutes and never touched again
Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577
Nifty 50 minus 0.61 while the Next 50 rose 0.52 with 32 up and 17 down
Five large banks and Reliance took the index down alone
India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of 19 names higher
Day one of the new series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts
Biggest call add 41 lakh and biggest put add 24 lakh, both at 23,700
PCR 0.649 with max pain 23,750, around 115 points above spot
Band 23,520 to 23,750 with one standard deviation at 115 points
Basis back to a 115 point premium from 88 with futures OI up 2.73 lakh
Fresh buying of premium rather than short covering
FII index futures short to 2,61,000, another run high, never once turned
The only position on the board that has been right the whole way down
Retail naked put book fell to 7.43 lakh, but mostly expiry settling out
Never compare option open interest across an expiry boundary
Brent 99.34, sixty six cents from 100, after being 86 twelve sessions ago
The rupee weakened against the pound, euro, yen and yuan on a day the dollar fell
A domestic signal, not a dollar signal: watch oil and gas, paints, tyres, airlines
GIFT at 23,662 points to an open below 23,600, changing the order of the questions
Plan on record: reclaim 23,600 first, 23,700 becomes heavy resistance
No structure today, because after a maximum loss the right size is smaller

Transcript Excerpt

A very good morning, guys. Yesterday I got the direction wrong. The iron fly that we entered went into a loss of its maximum. So those two are different skills, and only one of them is optional. And this morning Brent crude is 66 cents from 100 dollars. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 121. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So the Nifty settled yesterday at 23,635. I said 23,900 in the pre-open. The high was 23,758. So the target was 150 points away and it never played out. In the first 15 minutes the market slid down and it did not come back to that 23,700 level. So I will put this on record. I said 23,700 decides it, and below it I am on the sidelines looking for 23,650 and 23,600. It broke early and never came back. The low was 23,623 and it settled at 23,635, right between the levels we discussed. The direction was wrong. The map for being wrong was right. The tape. The Nifty was down 144 points yesterday. In the first few minutes it made a high of 23,758 and never touched it again. Seventeen up, 31 down, that was the Nifty's breadth. The Sensex fell harder, down 555 points to 75,577. India VIX is around 11, and I say around because the two feeds disagree again. The index fell three times harder than the market underneath it. The Nifty 50 fell 0.61 percent yesterday. The Nifty 500 fell 0.22 percent. The total market cap 0.18 percent. And the Next Nifty 50 actually rose 0.52 percent with 32 up and 17 down. India Defence rose 2.5 percent with 18 of the 19 names higher. The media sector was up 1.31 percent and pharma was up 0.77 percent. So where did the index go? ICICI Bank was minus 2 percent, Axis minus 1.72, Kotak minus 1.2, Reliance minus 1.16 and HDFC Bank minus 1.17. Five large banks and Reliance took the index down. The other 490 odd stocks did not get that message. And day one of the 15 September Nifty series added 4.76 crore calls and 2.99 crore puts. The PCR is at 0.649 and max pain stands at 23,750, which is around 115 points ab…

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Verdict: 4/54 HIT, 1 MISSGraded next morning against NSE settlementFull track record →

How the grade landed

Graded Thu 10 Sep against the Wed close 23,431. The level call was the day. 23,600 was named as the first question and 23,700 as the heavy resistance and the second question, and neither was reclaimed: the index closed at its exact low with no bounce into the close. The read that the foreign futures short was the only position that had been right the whole way down held again as that book went to a fresh high. And the macro line landed inside a session, Brent called at sixty six cents from 100 and settling 101.21. The miss was the gap estimate, given as 40 to 60 points against a session that kept going. Four on five.