Season 2, Episode 120 | 2026-09-08
Friday's Board Was Built For A Rally And It Took One Session To Take The Whole Thing Apart | 659 Lakh Calls Written, 189 Lakh Puts Covered | I Am Still Buying The Dip Into 23,600 With An Expiry Target Of 23,900
Friday's option board was built for a rally: calls bought back, puts written, volatility crushed. It took the market one session to take the whole thing apart. Yesterday 659.17 lakh calls were written and 189.
Verdict: 3/5 | 2 HIT, 1 PARTIAL, 2 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | Friday Built It, Monday Tore It Down
Last week, Friday's option board was built for a rally. Calls bought back, puts written, volatility crushed. Every signal pointing towards a gap up on Monday. It took the market one session to take the whole thing apart. Yesterday, 6.59 crore calls were written and 1.89 crore puts were bought back. And I am still buying the dip, with the target above all of it.
The Receipt | The 23,900 Call Landed
One thing first, briefly, because I put it on record yesterday. I said the first question was not whether we take 24,000, it was whether we reclaim 23,900, and that if we failed there the people who wrote the puts at that strike on Friday were in deep trouble. The high was 23,890. It never touched it, by 10 points. The 23,900 put went from 59.85 to 128.80, more than doubling, and 75.84 lakh of open interest came off as the writers bought themselves out. I also said Infosys being down 3.23 percent in New York was the tell for IT. Infosys fell 3.76 percent yesterday over here.
The Tape | Out Of IT And Into Pharma
The Nifty closed 23,779, down half a percent. It opened at 23,883, made a high of 23,890 in the first few minutes and spent the rest of the day going down, to 23,737. Thirteen up and 37 down inside the Nifty 50, and 1,096 up against 1,760 down across the full market. The Sensex fell the same half a percent, and its low was not its close, ending a four session streak. India VIX is back above the 11 mark. Nifty IT fell 2.28 percent and it was not one name, it was ten of ten across the board. The other side was also violent. Anuh Pharma plus 12.21 percent, Sakar plus 10.37, Star plus 10.04, Themi…
The Board | One Session Undid Four Days Of Writing
Call open interest rose 6.59 crore, put open interest fell 1.89 crore, and the put call ratio went from 0.844 down to 0.556. On Friday it was the exact opposite, 1.07 crore of calls covered and 2.90 crore of puts written. One session undid four days of writing. Strike by strike: 23,800 is the biggest one, and 1.51 crore calls were written into it in a single session. 23,900 took 1.19 crore calls and 23,850 took 1.07 crore. They sold calls at every strike from 23,750 up to 24,000. And on the put side, 23,900 lost 75 lakh puts, 23,950 lost 41 lakh and 24,000 lost 27 lakh. So they bought back eve…
The Pin | Both Sides Defend One Price
Max pain stands at 23,800, only 21 points above where we closed, and the same strike took the largest call build of the session. So it is the magnet and it is the first obstacle in the way of anything higher. Implied volatility stands just below the 12 percent mark, which is normal for the day before. One standard deviation is around 144 points and the 23,800 straddle implies about 160. And one more thing that closes a story I have run all week. The September basis is at 88 points. That run was 34, then 85, then 126, then 150. Yesterday it gave back 62 points in one session. But the futures op…
Positioning | The Crowd Sold Into The Fall
And one thing that should worry you and me as well. The retail naked put book went from 7.16 lakh to 8.89 lakh. They sold 1.73 lakh more puts in a single session. That is the most worrying part, into a falling market on the eve of expiry, a new high for this run, and Friday's reduction lasted exactly one day. The pros flipped back to net short calls, the eighth flip in 12 sessions. The foreign futures short went to 2 lakh 50,000, another run high, in a book that has been rising every single session. In cash the foreigners actually bought 280 crore, the first buying day in a while. Overnight, G…
The Plan | A Squeeze Case, Not A Drift Case
I am constructive today with a caveat. A flat to marginally lower open near 23,760 to 23,790. My view for the expiry is buying the dips towards 23,700, with the target at 23,900, above that magnet and into positive gamma territory. That buy zone is the real support on the board: 23,700 carries 94 lakh puts and 23,600 carries a crore. It also sits a full standard deviation below the pin, so you are being paid to wait for it. Do not chase the open, let it come to you. Now let me be straight about the target, because it is not a free lunch. 23,900 is around 121 points from yesterday's close, one …
Highlights
- 6.59 crore calls written and 1.89 crore puts bought back in a single session
- The exact mirror of Friday, when 1.07 crore calls were covered and 2.90 crore puts written
- PCR collapsed from 0.844 to 0.556, one session undoing four days of writing
- The 23,900 call landed: high 23,890, never touched, by 10 points
- The 23,900 put went 59.85 to 128.80 and 75.84 lakh of open interest came off
- Infosys was called as the IT tell and fell 3.76 percent
- Nifty closed 23,779, opened 23,883, high 23,890 in the first minutes, low 23,737
- Breadth 13 up and 37 down in the Nifty 50, 1,096 up against 1,760 down overall
- The Sensex low was not its close, ending a four session streak
- Nifty IT fell 2.28 percent with ten of ten names down
- 35 pharmaceutical names up more than 2 percent, the most of any industry
- Anuh Pharma plus 12.21, Sakar plus 10.37, Star and Themis Medicare plus 10.04
- 23,800 took 1.51 crore calls in one session, the biggest build on the board
- Calls sold at every strike from 23,750 up to 24,000
- Max pain 23,800 sits only 21 points above the close
- The September basis gave back 62 points to 88 after a 34 to 150 run
- Futures open interest rose seven lakh, so fresh selling not unwinding
- Retail naked put book rose to 8.89 lakh, a new run high for the run
- They sold 1.73 lakh more puts into a falling market on the eve of expiry
- Pros flipped back to net short calls, an eighth flip in 12 sessions
- FII futures short to 2,50,093, another run high, while buying 280 crore of cash
- The yen up another 2 percent at 153.16, the biggest single currency move of the run
- Target 23,900 is 121 points away against a 144 point one SD and a 160 point straddle
- Plan on record: buy dips to 23,700, iron fly body 23,900, flat by 3:15 without fail
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. Last week, Friday's option board was built for a rally. Calls bought back, puts written, volatility crushed. Every signal pointing towards a gap up on Monday. It took the market one session to take the whole thing apart. Yesterday, 6.59 crore calls were written and 1.89 crore puts were bought back. And I am still buying the dip, with the target above all of it. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 120 of season 2. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So one thing first, briefly, because I put it on record yesterday. I said the first question was not whether we take 24,000, it was whether we reclaim 23,900, and that if we failed there the people who wrote the puts at that strike on Friday were in deep trouble. The high was 23,890. It never touched it, by 10 points. The 23,900 put went from 59.85 to 128.80, more than doubling, and 75.84 lakh of open interest came off as the writers bought themselves out. I also said Infosys being down 3.23 percent in New York was the tell for IT. Infosys fell 3.76 percent yesterday over here. The tape. The Nifty closed 23,779, down half a percent. It opened at 23,883, made a high of 23,890 in the first few minutes and spent the rest of the day going down, to 23,737. Thirteen up and 37 down inside the Nifty 50, and 1,096 up against 1,760 down across the full market. The Sensex fell the same half a percent, and its low was not its close, ending a four session streak. India VIX is back above the 11 mark and bounced back nicely. Nifty IT fell 2.28 percent and it was not one name, it was ten of ten across the board. The other side was also violent. Anuh Pharma plus 12.21 percent, Sakar plus 10.37, Star plus 10.04, Themis Medicare plus 10.04, Hikal plus 9.54, Solara plus 9.49, IOL Chemicals plus 7.72. Thirty five pharmaceutical names up more than 2 percent, the most of any industry. So the money did not leave the market. It walked out of IT into pharma in one session. And the board, now the part th…
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