Season 2, Episode 119 | 2026-09-07
The Board Got Ready For A Rally And The Close Did Not Get The Memo | Calls Covered, Puts Written, Volatility Crushed, And Now We Open 35 Points Lower | The First Question Today Is 23,900, Not 24,000
On Friday every positioning signal on the Nifty option board moved the same way, and every one of them moved up. Calls were bought back, puts were written, volatility was crushed, the professional desks flipped long and retail stopped selli
Verdict: 4/5 | 4 HIT, 1 MISS | graded next morning against NSE settlement data.
Cold Open | Every Signal Moved Up, Then The Market Closed On Its Low
On Friday, every single positioning signal on the options board moved the same way, and every one of them moved up. Calls were bought back, puts were written, volatility was crushed. The professional desk flipped long. Retail stopped selling puts for the first time in six sessions, and that is new. Then the market closed on its low. And this morning we open 35 points lower.
Friday's Tape | The Headline Hides Everything
The Nifty finished 23,897, up a tenth of a percent. That headline hides everything. At 11:30 it was 24,005. By the close it had given back 108 points and finished 1.85 points off its own low. The Sensex was worse: it closed at 76,515 and that closing price was also the exact low for the day, 367 points below the afternoon's high. So for the fourth time in ten sessions an index has printed its high or its low and its closing number is the same as that extreme. India VIX fell to 10.61, down 6.44 percent, and under 11 for the first time in this September series. But look at what led: Sensex plus …
The Cables Complex Broke
One sector, one industry, got hammered on Friday. That is cables. KEI was minus 8.95 on 1,173 crore of turnover. Polycab minus 5.76, RR Kabel minus 6.25, Dynamic Cables minus 10.36. Finolex, Havells, Universal, Precision Wires and Apar all followed. Nine names in one industry, one afternoon, on real money. I am not going to invent a reason for it. But what I can tell you is the shape, and the shape is what it looks like when everybody wants out of the same thing, of the same industry, at the same time.
The Board | The Biggest One Day PCR Jump Of The Run
Nifty call open interest fell by 1.07 crore and put open interest rose by 2.90 crore. The PCR went from 0.656 to 0.844, the biggest one day jump of this run. And strike by strike it is cleaner still. 24,000 lost 32 lakh calls, 23,900 lost 27 lakh calls. Meanwhile 23,900 gained 42 lakh puts, 23,800 gained 39 lakh puts and 23,950 gained 31 lakh puts. On Thursday 24,000 took 96 lakh calls in one single session; on Friday a third of that came straight back off. The sellers walked down the call side and up the put side, and they did it all day.
Three Things At One Price
Max pain moved up to 24,000, the gamma flip moved to 24,000, and 24,000 is still the heaviest call strike at 1.51 crore. Three separate things all at the same price, 102 points above where we closed. Which also means we are 102 points inside the negative gamma zone, where on Thursday we were only 27 points inside it. The unstable region got wider, not narrower. Volatility under 9 percent gives a one standard deviation range of 110 points for the day. And the September future closed at 24,048, a basis of 150 points. The run is 34.50, then 85, then 126, and now 150. Three sessions of futures pri…
Who Did What | The Seventh Flip In Eleven Sessions
The professional desks flipped to net long index calls, plus 74,000 from minus 74,000, a swing of 1 lakh 48,000 contracts. That is the seventh flip in 11 sessions and the biggest of them. Retail bought back 85,000 puts, the first reduction after six straight sessions of building that book. And then the one book that did not turn: the FII index futures short went to 2,35,838, another run high. Everything else flipped bullish on Friday and that short got bigger. In cash they sold 3,111 crore against 8,930 crore of domestic buying, and sold 9,903 crore of index options, the heaviest of the week.
The Receipt, And The Plan | The Question Is 23,900, Not 24,000
First a correction. On Thursday I gave an iron fly as a credit of 144.50 with a max loss of 55.50. Against the official settlement close it is a credit of 140.65 and a max loss of 59.35, with breakevens at 23,859 and 24,140. The position is up 14 points after Friday with two sessions to run. A naked 24,000 straddle made 47 over the same day, so the wings cost me 34 points on Friday. On Thursday the same wings saved me 34 points. Saved 34, cost 34, on consecutive days. That is the whole argument for defined risk in two numbers: you pay for the ceiling every single day, and you only notice it on…
Highlights
- Every positioning signal on the options board moved up on Friday, then the market closed on its low
- Retail stopped selling puts for the first time in six sessions
- Nifty finished 23,897, up a tenth of a percent, and 1.85 points off its own low
- At 11:30 it was 24,005 and gave back 108 points into the close
- Sensex closed 76,515, its exact low, 367 points below the afternoon high
- Fourth time in ten sessions an index closed at its own high or low
- India VIX fell 6.44 percent to 10.61, under 11 for the first time this series
- Realty fell 0.66 after being Thursday's best sector at plus 2.58
- Nine cables names broke together: KEI minus 8.95 on 1,173 crore of turnover
- Call open interest fell 1.07 crore while put open interest rose 2.90 crore
- PCR jumped 0.656 to 0.844, the biggest one day move of the run
- 23,900 gained 42 lakh puts while 24,000 lost 32 lakh calls
- A third of Thursday's 96 lakh call build came straight back off
- Max pain, the gamma flip and the heaviest call strike all sit at 24,000
- Spot closed 102 points inside negative gamma, against 27 points on Thursday
- September basis widened again to 150 points after 34.50, 85 and 126
- Pros swung 1.48 lakh contracts to net long calls, a seventh flip in 11 sessions
- FII index futures short went to a fresh run high at 2,35,838
- FIIs sold 3,111 crore of cash against 8,930 crore of domestic buying
- Iron fly corrected to credit 140.65 and max loss 59.35, up 14 points after Friday
- The same wings cost 34 points on Friday after saving 34 on Thursday
- 23,900 is the heaviest put on the board at 1.11 crore, 41 lakh written Friday afternoon
- Asia split: Korea, Japan and Taiwan flying while Hong Kong, Singapore and India are not
- Plan on record: reclaim 23,900 first, band 23,800 to 24,000, trade only after 9:30
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning, guys. On Friday, every single positioning signal on the options board moved the same way, and every one of them moved up. Calls were bought back, puts were written, volatility was crushed. The professional desk flipped long. Retail stopped selling puts for the first time in six sessions, and that is new. Then the market closed on its low. And this morning we open 35 points lower. This is The Tanmay Edge. You are listening to episode 119. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Let's go. So the Nifty finished 23,897, up a tenth of a percent. That headline hides everything. At 11:30 it was 24,005. By the close it had given back 108 points and finished 1.85 points off its own low. The Sensex was worse. It closed at 76,515 and that closing price was also the exact low for the day, 367 points below the afternoon's high. So for the fourth time in ten sessions an index has printed its high or its low and its closing number is the same as that extreme itself. India VIX fell to 10.61, down 6.44 percent, and under 11 for the first time in this September series. But look at what led. Sensex plus 0.48, Nifty plus 0.10, Bank Nifty minus 0.02, Next Nifty 50 minus 0.23, Midcap Select minus 0.31, Realty minus 0.66 after being the best sector on Thursday at plus 2.58. The large caps led, the broader market did not. And that was Friday for you. That is the reverse of Thursday, and it is why my rotation call on Friday was wrong. And one sector, one industry, got hammered on Friday. That is cables. KEI was minus 8.95 on 1,173 crore of turnover. Polycab minus 5.76, RR Kabel minus 6.25, Dynamic Cables minus 10.36. Finolex, Havells, Universal, Precision Wires and Apar all followed. Nine names in one industry, one afternoon, on real money. I am not going to invent a reason for it. But what I can tell you is the shape, and the shape is what it looks like when everybody wants out of the same thing, of the same industry, at the same time. Now the part that matters for today. Nifty call…
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