Season 2, Episode 14 | 2026-04-07
Monday's V-Shape Stunned Everyone | But FII Didn't Cover
Nifty rallied 620 points intraday yesterday, but FII covered just 366 contracts | 0.14% of their short position. Now GIFT Nifty is gapping down below the GEX flip line on weekly expiry day.
Market Overview
DESCRIPTION: Nifty rallied 620 points intraday yesterday, but FII covered just 366 contracts | 0.14% of their short position. Now GIFT Nifty is gapping down below the GEX flip line on weekly expiry day. Tanmay breaks down the V-shape mechanics, the negative gamma setup, and 3 scenarios for Tuesday’s high-volatility session. KEYWORDS: Nifty, weekly expiry, FII short, GEX, gamma, V-shape, options, derivatives, pre-market, GIFT Nifty Now this morning, GIFT Nifty is at 22,876 | gapping down 147 points from last night’s 23,023. We’re below the GEX flip line. It’s weekly expiry. And I’m expecting a …
F&O Positioning
SEGMENT 2: The Positioning Triangle | Pro, FII, Client This is where the real story is. Let me start with Pro | the proprietary traders. The side changers. Pro futures moved to +14,617. That’s +940 contracts added on Monday. Small number, but Pro’s been quietly building long since the 22,350 low. They’re positioning for more upside. Pro also added call longs | +69,612 net calls. They’re the first ones to lean bullish. Now FII. This is the headline. FII net futures: -2,68,462. They covered 366 contracts on a day the market moved 620 points. Let me put that in perspective | that’s 0.14% of their…
Options & GEX Analysis
HASHTAGS: #TheTanmayEdge #Nifty #FII #WeeklyExpiry #GEX #RupeeCase #PreMarket #Options #IndianMarkets COLD OPEN Yesterday I said the trap is still set. 2 hours into the session, Nifty was at 22,542 | down 400 points. People were calling it the crash. Then the market did what nobody expected | a 620-point V-shape to close at 22,968, up 1.12%. But here’s the number that matters more than the 620. FII covered 366 contracts. Out of 2,68,462 short. That’s 0.14%. The market rallied 620 points and FII didn’t blink. SEGMENT 3: GEX, Options & Key Levels Today is weekly Nifty expiry. And the GEX setup i…
Commodities & FX
Now the big one | crude. Brent at $111.19, up 1.29%. WTI at $115.17, up 2.45%. Both climbing again. This matters because every time crude spikes, FII selling intensifies. The India inflation narrative comes back. Gold at $4,627 | down half a percent. Safe haven demand cooling slightly. Dollar Index at 100.12, barely moved. Rupee at 93.06. MCX crude at 10,630. MCX Gold at 1,50,100. Silver at 2,33,367. IT was soft | Nifty IT up only 0.61%. With crude surging and rupee weakening, IT may underperform near term despite the Nasdaq strength.
Sector Watch
SEGMENT 4: Sectors & Screener Monday’s V-shape was broad-based. Bank Nifty rallied 2.01% to 52,585. PSU banks led the charge. Private banks followed. Metal sector was strong | TATASTEEL, HINDALCO, COALINDIA all up. SHRIRAMFIN was the standout at +3.50% | the top mover in the RupeeCase Nifty portfolio. Screener signals are mixed. Most sectors bounced hard from oversold zones yesterday. The question is whether that bounce holds or this is a dead cat that’s about to be tested again on expiry day.
Trading Plan & Levels
The setup: Pro leaning long. FII stubbornly short but hedging. Client overexposed on sold puts. This is a recipe for a volatile expiry. SEGMENT 5: Tanmay’s Read
RupeeCase Update
LINKS: rupeecase.com | Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon Music | YouTube RupeeCase Nifty rebalanced yesterday. All 10 stocks held. Portfolio alpha +1.15% over Nifty 50. SHRIRAMFIN leading at +3.50%. Track it live on rupeecase dot com. CTA CLOSE That’s your edge for today. If this added value | share it with 1 trader who needs it right now. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, or stream live on rupeecase dot com. I’m building RupeeCase | India’s systematic investing terminal. Link is in the show notes. The data doesn’t lie. Narratives do. You just got earlier. See you tomorrow.
Highlights
- Nifty at 22,876,
- Fii covered just 366 contracts | 0
- Fii covered 366 contracts
- Fii net futures: -2,68,462
- Fii bought index options worth +1,040 cr on monday
- Fii sold another -8,167 cr
Transcript Excerpt
very good morning yesterday i said the trap is still set two hours into the session yesterday nifty was at 22 542 down 400 points people were calling it the crash then the market did what nobody expected a 620 point v -shape to close at 22 968 just shy of that 23 000 mark up 1 .12 percent but here's the number that matters more than the 620 point rally. FI has covered 366 contracts. Out of 2 ,68 ,000 short contracts, that's just 0 .14 bips. The market rallied 620 points and FI didn't blink. Now this morning, GIF Nifty is at 22 ,876, gapping down almost 150 points from last night. That is 23 ,023. We are below the GEX flip line. It's weekly expiry and I'm expecting a high volatility session. Let me show you what the data is actually saying. So this This is Tanmay's Edge, India's pre -market edge for serious traders. I am Tanmay Kurthakoti. Season 2, episode 14, weekly expiry Tuesday. Let's go. So US market closed mix last night. S &P 500 at 6611, up 0 .44%. So Nasdaq was up 0 .54 bps to 21996. Dowda outlier down 0 .30 bps at 46528. Tech carried the session, Nasdaq outperforming once again. Europe was split. FTSE was up 69 bps, but DAX fell. 56 bps and pac was down 24 bps no conviction either way asia this morning is red nikkei is down 36 bps gift nifty is down 54 bps that's a 147 point gap down from last night's 23023 taiwan is the bright spot up 1 .27 percent shanghai flag to green up 37 bps kospi barely positive at 10 bps now the big one crude crude brand crude is up by 1 .29%, whereas WTI is trading at $115 .17, up 2 .45%. Both climbing again, this matters because every time crude spikes, FII selling intensifies, the India inflation narrative comes back. So gold at 46 .27, down 0 .5%, safe haven demand cooling slightly. Dollar index just above that 100 mark and barely moved. Rupee at 93 .06, some strength is being shown over there. MCX crude at 10 ,630, MCX gold at 1 .5L. 50 ,000 and silver at 2 ,33 ,000. That's the position. So this is where the real story…
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