Season 2, Episode 23 | 2026-04-21
Today Is Not A Pin Day. Buy Dips. 24500 Is A Trap.
IV ripped 48% in one session. ATM straddle 267, 1SD 334 pts. Put writers walked up 500 pts. Call writers stacked a trap at 24500. Pro long, FII covering, Client max short puts. Today has a big move in it.
Monday Map + Overnight Setup
Nifty closed 24364.85 (+11.30). Sensex +276. Bank Nifty +16. IT -0.9%. VIX 19.01 (+10.5%), the first honest move vol has made in a week. GIFT Nifty 24402 (+60). Gap up open. Asia leading. Nikkei +1.34, Kospi +2.15, Taiwan +1.90, Hang Seng +0.43. Europe closed heavy Monday | FTSE -0.55, CAC -1.13, DAX -1.16. US futures mixed, Dow +0.25, S&P and Nasdaq slightly red. Asia tailwind + European hangover = gap up that needs to defend itself by 11 AM. Mean reversion territory. Brent 94.86 (-0.65%). Dollar index 98.13. USD INR 93.12. Gold 4806 (-0.3). Nothing on commodities side is a problem. One tail …
Why This Is NOT A Pin Day
IV on 21 Apr weekly closed 21.64% vs 14.58% Friday. A 48% expansion in one session. You do not get that before a boring expiry. ATM straddle 267.45 points. 1SD with 1.25 multiplier = 334 points. Expected range 24031 to 24699. A 668 point band for an expiry day. A normal pinning Tuesday gives 100 to 150 points. This one is pricing 334 each side. Chain restructured bullish. Put writers unwound 30.39 lakh at 23000, rebuilt 500 pts higher | 23500 added 23.58 lakh, 23700 added 17.37 lakh. Floor moved up. Call writers covered far out of the money. 26500 lost 48 lakh, 26000 lost 42 lakh, 25500 lost 3…
Institutional Read | Pro vs FII vs Client
Pro flipped back long 3671 futures (from -2128 Friday). Added 7112 long calls. Doubled long puts to 142768. Pro is long direction and long volatility. Hedged for a big move either way. FII sold 1059 Cr cash Monday. Bought 641 Cr Nifty futures. Sold 404 Cr Bank Nifty. Net index futures +159 Cr. FII sold cash and bought index future = short covering or hedge reset, not fresh shorting. FII short book down to 189761 from 87000 peak a week ago. Covering fuel running out. Client long 138213 futures. Short 495272 puts. Short put book doubled in a session. Retail is short vol into expiry and max bulli…
Today's Playbook | Buy Dips, Respect Vol
Gap up opens above Monday high 24480. First question | hold 24400 in first 30 min? If yes | 24500 is the trap. Seller there first time, retail calls get squeezed AT the wall before they crack. If 24500 holds 15 min, cover and flip long for squeeze to 24700. If we fade gap and lose 24300 | flush to 24200, first dip to buy. 24100 next buy zone. 24000 line in the sand, below that map changes and stop hits. Mean reversion trade = dip buy. Every dip into 24100-24200 zone is a spot to go long futures with tight stop or buy short dated 24300 call. The 48% IV expansion has to pay itself back | theta t…
The Prediction | Six Calls For Tuesday
1. 300+ point range today. Expected range 24031-24699. Touch both halves. 2. Pro long futures + FII covering + Asia strength pulls us toward 24500-24700 first. 3. 24500 does NOT break clean. Rejects at least once. That is the trap. 4. Dip from rejection buyable down to 24150-24200. 5. Close above 24400 bullish scenario. Below 24200 bearish. Lean bullish | put writers do not migrate 500 pts up then let market break their new floor next day. 6. IV crushed 30-40% from 21.64 back into mid teens by close. Mean reversion. Wrong side tells | USDINR above 93.40 + Brent reclaiming 96.
RupeeCase Nifty | Day 2 Post Rebalance
Day 2 post 20 Apr rebalance. AXISBANK + TECHM added. DRREDDY + JSWSTEEL out. Monday book +1.16% vs benchmark +0.05% | 1.11% alpha in one session. Strategy live. Post rebalance snapshot on rupeecase.com. Next review 4 May. Same option chain data, same F&O breakdown, live strategy NAV | all at rupeecase.com.
Highlights
- IV ripped 48% in one session | 14.58% Fri to 21.64% today
- ATM straddle 267.45 | 1SD 334 pts | expected range 24031-24699
- Put writers walked up 500 pts | new floor 23500
- Call writers trapped at 24500 | 1.27 Cr contracts of upside protection gone
- Pro flipped long 3671 futures + doubled long puts to 142768
- Client short 495272 puts | max bullish into expiry
- FII short book 189761, down from 87000 peak | covering fuel running out
- RupeeCase Nifty +1.11% alpha day 1 post rebalance
- Wrong side tell | USDINR above 93.40 + Brent reclaiming 96
Transcript Excerpt
A very good morning guys. Yesterday nifty closed just up 11 points. Flat, boring, that's what you thought. Every trader who went home at 3 .30 thought the market had nothing to say. The IV ripped 48 % in one session. The option chain shifted by 500 points. Put writers walked up the ladder call writer has set up the trap and this morning gift nifty is up by 60 points while asia is screaming green if you think today is going to be another flat tuesday you are reading the wrong tape today has some big move in it and i'm going to tell you which direction i'm leaning and why so Today is 21st April, Tuesday. This is the Tanmay Edge. I am Tanmay Kurtkoti. Episode 23. Let's go. So, Nifty is trading at 24 ,360. Sensex up by 276 points yesterday. Bank Nifty up by 16 points. IT was down yesterday. And VIX was up by 10 % on the day, which is the first honest move vol has made in a week. Overnight was not quiet. Gift Nifty this morning is trading up at 60 points. That is a gap up open. Asia is leading. Nikkei is up by 1 .3%. Kospi is up by 2 .15%. Taiwan is up by 2%. Hang Seng is up by 0 .4%. Only Shanghai and Jakarta are red and are both soft. Europe closed heavy on Monday. FTSE down 0 .5%, CAC down, DAX down, US futures are mixed, Dow up a quarter percent and S &P and Nasdaq slightly red. So we are opening into Asia tailwind and a European hangover that is set up for a gap up that needs to defend itself by 11am. Mean reversion territory. So Brent is trading at 95 dollars down 0 .65 percent, crude down 1 .1 percent, dollar index is trading flat at 98 .10, USD INR is trading at 93 .12 up marginally and gold 4806 down 0 .3. Nothing on the commodity side is the problem today. That removes one tail risk. But I keep calling pins and today is not that day. Let me show you why. IV on 21st April closed at 21 .64. On Friday it was 14 .58. That is a 48 % jump in one session. You do not get a 48 IV expansion before a boring expiry. You get it when the smart money is buying insurance. ATM …
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