Brent cracked 105. Vol first. Pin second. Expiry is not going to be easy

S&P was up by 13 points. Nasdaq was up by 27 points. Above all-time highs by a hair but flat overnight. US is shrugging at oil. India is the importer. And that is where it hurts us. Asia is split this morning. 42 percent. 33 percent. Taiwan flat. 5 percent. 47 percent. The oil importers got punished. India is getting punished and India sits with them. Yields are up on India as well. 96. 43 modestly. 31 stays at record low set on Monday. Sub-95 stays broken on USD INR.

This is a tape that says risk-off in pockets and pin-pull in others. The oil pricing wins this morning. Now read what happens in the chain. Yesterday Pro flipped net calls from 58,000 long on Friday to 30,000 short on Monday. That's 89,000 contracts moved in one direction. The biggest single-day participation we have seen in recent times. Pro is the desk. Pros is the proprietary traders of members. Pro reads order flow before anything else. When Pro flips like this, the wall at 24,000 is not a forecast.

It is an instruction. FII added another 48,000 short calls on top of that. FII bought 26,000 more puts. FII sold 8438 crores. Biggest single day in 20 sessions we have seen. The cumulative FII sell crossed minus 50,000 crores. The round number broke again in the month of May. DIIs absorbed yesterday around 5940 crores. Did not fill the hole but they absorbed a lot. Client did the opposite. Clients extended the long. Added 1,38,000 calls. Wrote 26,000 more puts. The crowd at maximum optimism while Pros have already flipped.

The historical pattern. When Pros flip and Clients extend opposite in one direction, the next two-three sessions favors Pros. Every expiry day in session one we have seen this pattern. Pro is short calls. Pro is long futures. Pro reduced put hedge. That position only pays if 24,000 is capping for the day. Watch where Pro defends the wall. Now the chain map. 24,000 is the wall or the resistance. 1 crore 23 lakh call OI on Monday close. Almost 1 crore added in one single session.

Friday's OI was 21 lakhs. 23 crores. The wall multiplied by 6x in one session. The biggest single-strike write of the week. 23,800 that's the pin. 51 million. Highest of any strike. The deepest negative gamma cluster that we have seen. This is where the chain wants spot at 15:30. That is the expiry. Remember that. 23,500 is the deep floor. Put OI at 1 crore. Added around 21 lakhs on Monday. The fence the chain wrote bigger than 23,800 in one session. So ATR-2 buy zone if the morning escalation that we are seeing extends.

And the wing math. The straddle is trading around 205. Call is trading at 132. Put is trading at 73. That is at 23,800. Gives us a straddle price of 205 and an expiry range of around 260 points on each side. So the expiry range becomes 23,550 on the bottom side to 24,070 on the upside. GIFT Nifty opens around 23,670. 111 points above the wing floor. 400 points below the ceiling that is 24,000. We start inside the band. The two halves that I am seeing today on expiry.

The first half. Brent at 105 plus GIFT Nifty gap down open plus yields bidding up means IV expansion. 51 on Monday. Tuesday morning prints higher first. Premium sellers cannot work this leg. The 23,700 put catches a bid if spot tests 23,600. Long gamma trade kicks in. Second half. The pin. The gravity wins. 23,800 has the highest OI on the chain. The theta accelerates after noon. The magnet pulls. Pro defends the 24,000 wall as well as 23,500 floor that they have created.

Premium sellers come back in if the VIX cools below 18. So two halves of the expiry and one expiry that we are seeing today. And the sector tape from Monday confirms the rotation as well. Pharma held in green. So CNX Pharma is a Strong Buy. Healthcare is a Strong Buy. Defensives caught the bid and cyclicals broke. Finance broke down completely. CNX Finance is a Strong Sell. The long carry leg from Bank Nifty is gone. Banks lead the down move on Iran-tail days.

Infra broke. Energy broke. Metals broke. So CNX200, CNX500, broad market is also selling off. FMCG flipped to Buy. The defensive rotation is completed. The read. Sell rallies in cyclicals into the 24,000 wall. The pin trade in the second half plays the rotation. Defensives sit. Cyclicals speed. The wall is the cap the rip. Here is the lesson guys. Expiry day is two markets. Not one. The morning market sells volatility wrong. The first half belongs to gamma. Brent above 105 clearly means dealer hedging is unbalanced.

Spot prints into a tail. IV expands fast. Premium sellers get crushed in the first 90 minutes. The trade is to be long gamma. Buy puts on dip. Pay the IV. The afternoon market is the inverse of what we see in the morning. Theta accelerates. Pin gravity wins. The chain has voted 23,750 to 23,800. Pro is defending 24,000. The trade after lunch is to be short gamma. Sell the strangle. Collect the theta decay. Pin pays off. When you know which market you are in, you know which trade pays.

Today is going to be hard because both markets show up in the next 375 minutes. My POV. Buy the 23,700 put. Yesterday's 23,800 put roll it down to 23,700. If spot tests 23,650 in the first hour. Hold the wing trade until VIX peaks out. Then flip. Sell the 23,700 put plus the 23,900 call. That creates a strangle around 12:30 PM. If spot recovers to 23,800. Cover it before 3 PM. Do not hold strangle into the last 30 to 45 minutes. One more thing guys.

Yesterday was rebalance day for RupeeCase. The portfolio dropped SBIN. 52 percent on Monday. 45 percent portfolio drag. 51 percent positive. Defensive cohort cushioned the down. com. Every expiry day is two markets. Brent decides the first half. Pin decides the second. The chain has already voted. com, India's first systematic investing terminal that I am building. Also streaming on Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, and YouTube as well. Please give it a thumbs up and give it a rating. Would love to read your reviews as well.

And if this helped you guys, share it with one trader friend who needs it right now. See you all once again tomorrow. Have a hedged expiry guys and a happy expiry to you as well.